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  • There's no evidence that alcohol increases the spread of covid.
  • There is evidence that enclosed public spaces help spread covid, but only a little.

So what do they do?  Propose to get the enclosed spaces back but without the alcohol.

#ILoveScience.

By April we'll have vaccinated the vulnerable, so they won't be vulnerable any more.  Why not just get back to normal?

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15 minutes ago, One percent said:

What rationale are they offering? 

 

I don't know. Was just responding to the above post.

I thought something was up this week when I saw the share price of pubs going up. Someone in the know I thought. Then I saw the headline on The Sun's site this morning and my suspicions were confirmed. But opening a pub without alcohol? Nonsense really. They will backpeddle on this once they own enough shares of Wetherspoons.

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16 minutes ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

I don't know. Was just responding to the above post.

I thought something was up this week when I saw the share price of pubs going up. Someone in the know I thought. Then I saw the headline on The Sun's site this morning and my suspicions were confirmed. But opening a pub without alcohol? Nonsense really. They will backpeddle on this once they own enough shares of Wetherspoons.

Well they banned smoking in pubs a while back. I guess that alcohol is the next logical step. xD

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3 hours ago, dgul said:
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By April we'll have vaccinated the vulnerable, so they won't be vulnerable any more.  Why not just get back to normal?

Ive never understood why this wont happen.  At the beginning and throughout itnhas always been 'protect the nhs'. 

I can see that argument that we dont want people who cant be treated (unless you have cancer etc).

Most of the covid beds are vunerable people. Now theyve been vaccinated, they wont be in hospital, so nhs wont be overloaded, so no need for lockdown.

Is there an argument why this wont happen? Even if it's bollocks? (Apart from world domination of course).

 

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2 minutes ago, NewryH said:

 

Is there an argument why this wont happen? Even if it's bollocks? (Apart from world domination of course).

 

I have a very left leaning friend, they are utterly convinced that all fit healthy people in their 20-30s have so far managed to avoid infection & are just waiting to be struck down and hospitalised with covid. And the NHS will be burdened with hundreds of thousands of ‘‘long covid’’ patients 9_9

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10 minutes ago, NewryH said:

Ive never understood why this wont happen.  At the beginning and throughout itnhas always been 'protect the nhs'. 

 

Because they won't have finished vaccinating the vulnerable.

Assuming supplies keep up (And actually Witty I think alluded to the fact they might not recently) then they'll still only be doing the second jab of the over 70s at the end of April.

There are many more people clamouring for a jab at the moment. 

 

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18 minutes ago, maffo said:

I have a very left leaning friend, they are utterly convinced that all fit healthy people in their 20-30s have so far managed to avoid infection & are just waiting to be struck down and hospitalised with covid. And the NHS will be burdened with hundreds of thousands of ‘‘long covid’’ patients 9_9

Is your friend Neil Ferguson?

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29 minutes ago, NewryH said:

Ive never understood why this wont happen.  At the beginning and throughout itnhas always been 'protect the nhs'. 

I can see that argument that we dont want people who cant be treated (unless you have cancer etc).

Most of the covid beds are vunerable people. Now theyve been vaccinated, they wont be in hospital, so nhs wont be overloaded, so no need for lockdown.

Is there an argument why this wont happen? Even if it's bollocks? (Apart from world domination of course).

They're arguing that by vaccinating everyone we achieve 'herd immunity' and thus massively impair the virus from spreading.  This is because as it won't 'exist in such numbers' it won't have so much chance to mutate, and even if it does mutate to give a tiny bit of immunity from the vaccine it won't be able to spread to others and that 'dangerous' mutation will die out.  The threshold for 'herd immunity' depends on how contagious the disease is, but it is 80% for polio and 95% for measles.  Looking at the spread of covid I'd err 'the high side' for the required levels required for 'herd immunity'.

But the 'herd immunity' theory assumes sterilising immunity -- that is, that there just won't be any hosts for the virus.

But the covid jabs don't offer sterilising immunity.  It appears to be 50% effective, and that's in the months following the jab -- it would be assumed to lower over a longer timescale.  This is much lower than the presumed threshold required for herd immunity. I've argued in other threads how a non-sterilising immunity coupled with a virus that has been seen to mutate 'fairly rapidly' can end up increasing risks to the vulnerable groups over the medium term.

 

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15 minutes ago, eight said:

This may be a stupid question, but why don't measles or polio mutate?

They do.

RNA viruses mutate more rapidly than DNA viruses, but they all mutate.

The more complex answer is that some proteins on viruses are 'exactly right' and can't take a mutation (any mutation stops the protein doing its thing).  This makes the virus look as though it doesn't mutate, because all mutations (in that protein area) result in a virus that 'doesn't work'.

There is also the type of immunity you get -- if you get sterilising immunity (either naturally or via vaccination) then there's nowhere for the mutated viruses to go.

[BTW, polio and measles have both mutated to get around at least some of the vaccines that are available for them -- but to date those mutations have been kept at bay through biosecurity measures]

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Compo ! If the pub is closed due to lockdown they can claim grants & support, if they are allowed to open but choose not to ('cause there's no way they can cover costs if they don't serve booze) they have no claim for support.

A mate with a great sit-in cafe went through this last year, he was allowed to open but only for take-away so he didn't bother. His choice to stay closed = no gov't support.

:PissedOff: 

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