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Hold on, that's 4 years.


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This makes sense IMO because already Teslas are more than competitive against the mid to higher end of the car market where Jags compete, and they're only going to get better and cheaper, while ICE cars in the same segment are close to the limit of their development. If Jaguar can make an EV that is nearly-as-good in technical terms and feels posher and more exclusive, like the I-pace but better, they'll still be in the game.

 

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My car is 15 years old, still works fine and I'm happy with it but I've got one eye on what to do if I am forced to replace it. 

Not that I'm the sort of person who likes to spend good money on a car anyway, but why the hell would you spend any substantial amount on a car at this point in history? 

Just imagine how gutted you would be to buy an expensive car which quickly becomes worthless because it's the wrong sort of fuel/electric, or not 5G-compatible, or something like that.

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1 minute ago, Funn3r said:

My car is 15 years old, still works fine and I'm happy with it but I've got one eye on what to do if I am forced to replace it. 

Not that I'm the sort of person who likes to spend good money on a car anyway, but why the hell would you spend any substantial amount on a car at this point in history? 

Just imagine how gutted you would be to buy an expensive car which quickly becomes worthless because it's the wrong sort of fuel/electric, or not 5G-compatible, or something like that.

 

Or one of the non-lithium battery technologies succeeds in making a serious leap forward - either in price or range - whereupon every electric car withoout that battery that becomes the equivalent of a Betamax video recorder and effectvely worthless.

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1 minute ago, MrPin said:

You may be having a laugh @Funn3r, but it's the electric gadgets that will make the car unfeasable, like 8-track players, or a SatNav that won't work any more.

Something like that might possibly affect the value in a minor way I guess. My car has a 6-CD auto jukebox which must have been insanely expensive in 2005 and is now mostly useless, but I can't imagine a potential future buyer being bothered at all.

As Frank says I am talking about some definitive technological or legislative change meaning you are comprehensively buggered.

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1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Or one of the non-lithium battery technologies succeeds in making a serious leap forward - either in price or range - whereupon every electric car withoout that battery that becomes the equivalent of a Betamax video recorder and effectvely worthless.

There is surprisingly little sign of this happening, despite countless stories about battery breakthroughs in the last 10 years. It seems the incremental improvements are going to continue for a while yet.

Sometimes I think this is possibly by design to enable big oil to adapt - an easily-manufactured  battery that was twice as good as a recent Tesla battery, or even just twice as cheap, would have massive implications in the energy sector as a whole, not just cars.

 

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13 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Or one of the non-lithium battery technologies succeeds in making a serious leap forward - either in price or range - whereupon every electric car withoout that battery that becomes the equivalent of a Betamax video recorder and effectvely worthless.

I think hydrogen fuel cells have a lot going for them - fast refueling being the biggest item. I don't think the infrastructure is going to grow quickly enough to make them mass market any time soon though.

https://www.toyota.ca/toyota/en/safety-innovation/hydrogen-fuel-cell-mirai

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4 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

There is surprisingly little sign of this happening, despite countless stories about battery breakthroughs in the last 10 years. It seems the incremental improvements are going to continue for a while yet.

Sometimes I think this is possibly by design to enable big oil to adapt - an easily-manufactured  battery that was twice as good as a recent Tesla battery, or even just twice as cheap, would have massive implications in the energy sector as a whole, not just cars.

 

The incremental trend in price reduction is impressive although looking a touch asymptotic now:

bloomberg-nef-battery-lithium-ion-cell-energy-density-graph-chart-2-BNEF.png

If the first 10 years too out 90% of the cost, it's not impossible the next ten years will take out another 50%.

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21 minutes ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

There is surprisingly little sign of this happening, despite countless stories about battery breakthroughs in the last 10 years. It seems the incremental improvements are going to continue for a while yet.

Sometimes I think this is possibly by design to enable big oil to adapt - an easily-manufactured  battery that was twice as good as a recent Tesla battery, or even just twice as cheap, would have massive implications in the energy sector as a whole, not just cars.

 

Just as likely to be because the electricity supply couldn't cope. I see Texas has rolling powercuts currently because of a cold snap.

I agree that jaguar might as well go electric. The vast majority of their customers will have off road parking for charging. Mid-market brands need a reliable charging infrastructure. Jaguar can appear modern and grow.

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The electric car (or alternate fuel cars) in their current guise are still in their infancy and subject to massive change over the coming decade. 

Going all in on something now is creating a massive problem for the future. 

I would say the current eletric car is kind of like what the CFL bulb was a few years back, albeit a more expensive mistake. Kind of expensive initially until subsidised, still not great in comparison to its predecessor and looking back on them a few years later seems a backwards step in both function and for the environment (mercury). 

When something good comes along, it'll take off naturally. 

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Most of their engineering, when you get down to brass tacks, is a moderately tweaked version of that inherited from Ford that was largely developed for the Freelander 2, D3 & RRS model launches which were a ground up leap ahead from any vehicle previously produced. 
I wouldn’t be surprised if entire model ranges were dropped moving forward. Models like the XJ look vulnerable.

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5 minutes ago, ste said:

The electric car (or alternate fuel cars) in their current guise are still in their infancy and subject to massive change over the coming decade. 

Going all in on something now is creating a massive problem for the future. 

I would say the current eletric car is kind of like what the CFL bulb was a few years back, albeit a more expensive mistake. Kind of expensive initially until subsidised, still not great in comparison to its predecessor and looking back on them a few years later seems a backwards step in both function and for the environment (mercury). 

When something good comes along, it'll take off naturally. 

This remark is a bit out of date IMO.

CFL bulbs were shit from the get-go. They were certainly comparable to the first generation of electric cars, things like the Nissan Leaf in it's early versions, what a piece of shit that is. And the Renault Zoe up until the latest one, which is still quite shit. 

But the latest and best electric cars are superior to ICE cars in many respects if not yet all, so they're more comparable with recent LEDs - superior to their predecessors.

 

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