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I know you can't predict a black swan (or it would not be black) but bear with me: most of us are expecting a BK.  The question is what will kickstart it.

Reading the presidential election thread, it struck me that if Biden dies in his first quarter....... that could trigger it.  Dementia sufferers sometimes take a rapid nosedive (or sometimes hang on for years).  

If america wakes up and hear Biden is dead.... BK?

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Just now, Sugarlips said:

The top macro people seem to be paying very close attn to the climbing US  10 yr. They can’t find consensus on a top but this will likely be a trigger ie if it keeps climbing it will break something..

It’s also observed that the USD lost 25% of its purchasing power in 2020 due to brrr. 

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@sancho panza has looked at correlation between rising oil price and recessions, which recessions seem to follow a few months later. However, I guess that although economic contration will usually cause a stock market crash, the present times are unusual in that the huge recession we have had has only accelerated the rising markets. Also, looking at most broad indices (FTSE 100 aside), as well as other indications of craziness, we are in one of the great bubbles of history, like 1929 & 2000. The question of what bursts those epic bubbles may be slightly different.

My guess, for what it is worth, is that the end of lock-down, and the associated euphoria will be the direct antecedent to the bubble bursting. Having had the great relief of the prospect of a return to normal, people will suddenly look with a clear eye at what is left after the economic maelstrom. There will be the devastation of small businesses, and limited prospects of more "extraordinary measures" being added. There will also be the headwinds of higher oil and commodity prices to consider.

Therefore, I think the trigger will be gratitude.

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2 hours ago, wherebee said:

I know you can't predict a black swan (or it would not be black) but bear with me: most of us are expecting a BK.  The question is what will kickstart it.

Reading the presidential election thread, it struck me that if Biden dies in his first quarter....... that could trigger it.  Dementia sufferers sometimes take a rapid nosedive (or sometimes hang on for years).  

If america wakes up and hear Biden is dead.... BK?

How about we get  the long awaited pandemic that actually puts you in big trouble should you catch it even if you are fully fit and young. And if you are a conspiracy advocate how about a nice little black swan event coming along just as people thinking they are at long last out of covid, that will push people over the edge and with all the division in the UK now that seems to of sprouted up. 

 

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I gave up at the Dementia bit as all evidence points to Trump having that sort of issues rather than Biden.

and the US constitution is clear the Harris would become President and things continue as before.

A more interesting question is oil prices as I suspect that will impact some countries far more differently than would have been the case even 10 years and the impact of that may be that the US does badly while we in the UK might hardly notice.

 

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7 hours ago, wherebee said:

I know you can't predict a black swan (or it would not be black) but bear with me: most of us are expecting a BK.  The question is what will kickstart it.

Reading the presidential election thread, it struck me that if Biden dies in his first quarter....... that could trigger it.  Dementia sufferers sometimes take a rapid nosedive (or sometimes hang on for years).  

If america wakes up and hear Biden is dead.... BK?

I don't believe he's President now.  Well, sure, he has the title.  I just don't believe he's got his hand on any more levers than the pens that sign things.  If he died, I doubt anything would change.

I think inflation will trigger it.  Or, a printing pause / interest hike / tax increase applied to curb the inflation before it gets going.  Either way, it'll be increasing costs that business can't handle.

Edited by Bricks & Mortar
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4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

1. The 20 yard water-skim upon landing.

2. How much bread can you eat before you die from a gluten overdose?

3. How close can you shit to a golf hole?

4. How long can you stand in a crowd of white swans before segregation sets in?

 

 

well, that answer is a black swan in itself

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10 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think inflation will trigger it.  Or, a printing pause / interest hike / tax increase applied to curb the inflation before it gets going.  Either way, it'll be increasing costs that business can't handle.

Will the Fed do yield curve control?

If yes, theoretically it interprets USD collapse with PM’s, BTC etc to the moon even more than they already are.

If no, higher rates will bring everything NASDAQ down (as hyper growth stocks are most rate sensitive) with the risk that that shock takes the broader market down with it, at least temporarily.

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3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Will the Fed do yield curve control?

If yes, theoretically it interprets USD collapse with PM’s, BTC etc to the moon even more than they already are.

If no, higher rates will bring everything NASDAQ down (as hyper growth stocks are most rate sensitive) with the risk that that shock takes the broader market down with it, at least temporarily.

Bear with me, I'm just theorising here.
I think the Fed NEEDS and WANTS BK event.  They've as good as said the future will be massive money-printing.
Now, if they launch that printing without/before a BK event, the market is likely to take as much of it as possible, and buy bitcoin, gold, silver, any and every commodity available, and just hold it to protect against the devaluing USD.  Non-investing folks will be stockpiling food and domestic items, even.  Everything to the moon, as you say, except the US Dollar, which will be toilet paper.  I think money-printing into that scenario is like what happened in Weimar Germany, and pretty soon it was a wheelbarrow of cash for a loaf.  Pretty soon after that, time for a new, sounder currency.
They can't have the Weimar experience, and can't have sound currency since they want to print fuck out of this one first.
So, I don't think there'll be YCC before a BK event.  They'll do it afterwards.  So I guess I agree with the 2nd of your hypotheses.  I just arrived at that right now, thinking about your comment.

I just checked in on the US 10yr.  Oh shit!  that's going up kinda rapid. 

 

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1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Bear with me, I'm just theorising here.
I think the Fed NEEDS and WANTS BK event.  They've as good as said the future will be massive money-printing.
Now, if they launch that printing without/before a BK event, the market is likely to take as much of it as possible, and buy bitcoin, gold, silver, any and every commodity available, and just hold it to protect against the devaluing USD.  Non-investing folks will be stockpiling food and domestic items, even.  Everything to the moon, as you say, except the US Dollar, which will be toilet paper.  I think money-printing into that scenario is like what happened in Weimar Germany, and pretty soon it was a wheelbarrow of cash for a loaf.  Pretty soon after that, time for a new, sounder currency.
They can't have the Weimar experience, and can't have sound currency since they want to print fuck out of this one first.
So, I don't think there'll be YCC before a BK event.  They'll do it afterwards.  So I guess I agree with the 2nd of your hypotheses.  I just arrived at that right now, thinking about your comment.

I just checked in on the US 10yr.  Oh shit!  that's going up kinda rapid. 

 

Yes B&M Lyn Alden’s most recent thesis is exploring the likelihood that based on recent past events the Fed are likely to let the 10 yr run for a bit longer than they should, wait for the Nasdaq to tank and then step in as the market saviors with an even bigger printer and possibly even try to claim some glory/cred with Main St in the process thus resulting in UBi’s not just by stealth qe

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