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Will heavy industry ever recover in this country?


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15 hours ago, PatronizingGit said:

I dont think its the anglo american way. Anglo american economic model is short term profit extraction, usually via rent seeking and financialization. 

 

That, said, perhaps not heavy industry, but i'd guess 3D printing would eventually mean when full automation is achieved  theree  would be no reason to keep production for western demand in Asia. Globalization went into reverse in the earty 20th century I believe and perhaps it could again.

See Wheels off GE thread.

Following Welsh and gormless made up shit has meat large, older companies miss the last 20 years of profit and margins, leaving the daft orgs will dangerous balance sheets.

 

 

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This would happen only if housing costs fall significantly so that they are at a reasonable level comparable with those of other economies with which we are in competition. This would mean that:

We can either have industry or the City. We chose the City.

One of the best bits about the jobs I am talking about was that we undercut the manufacturer's repair and return or service-ex prices by 2/3rds. This brought in lots of lucrative business, but it also

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13 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

We are now in the process of the City losing trade to Amsterdam. 

The UK especially the North/ North West and Midlands are well primed for a return to industry. There is plenty of space, there is cheap labour and there are cheap houses. It is weather the London elite are willing or have the foresight to engage and make this an key economic priority. Time will tell.

Define losing trade?

Theres a load of crap said about th city both from Lefties and the City itself.

*ALL* trading and transaction stuff is going fully online.

Stuff like raising equity is getting a bad name for itself, mainly due to the majority of floats inthe last 10 years pretty much all crashing and burning.

If - and its a big if - someone works who to create a standard, generic bonds, so raising fixed debt doesn't involve a massive number of people charging expensive fees for mundane, shit work.

 

 

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13 hours ago, MrPin said:

Both Britain and USA are very good at small town engineering. Stuff you can't buy off the shelf from the big players. I would bet my money on that.

UK and US are basically orderly, lawful countries, with a relative open market and hands off governments.

These allow niches to open and develop.

Once you start down government intervention and bent markets then you end up with something between Europe and the USSR.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

If - and its a big if - someone works who to create a standard, generic bonds, so raising fixed debt doesn't involve a massive number of people charging expensive fees for mundane, shit work.

Oh yes.

Having been through this a few times I would say that if you wanted to deliberately design a process to create unnecessary work for lawyers then it would come out similar to what we have at present.

Also the process of providing security which is tied up in these loans. Fine in principle but unbelievably archaic in practice.

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10 hours ago, gibbon said:

The housing ponzi and sub division of the housing stock will continue. I've seen planning applications to turn 1 bed flats into 2 studios. 

Aren't we sat on potentially some of the largest tidal and off shore wind energy resources in the world? We could have plentiful cheap energy. Sadly we're also one of the most corrupt in the world. The severn tidal barrage was killed by the owners of avonmouth port buying off politicians. They also manage to buy the entire ports freehold and 5,000 acres for a piss taking £10 million by bunging the local mayor £10k.

So no...heavy industry ain't ever coming back and we'll continue to circle the drain until everyone is either a have not or a have yacht.

 

The UK housing market is collapsing.

Dont be fooled by the BS on pries and the like.

Look at the number of mortgages sold each year.

Only ~30% of housing has finance attached to it. It tends to be slpit wiht people who owe a littel and people who owe a lot.

Ownership is overly concentrated in the over 50s.

The UK economy is prob the most out of sync with the US then its ever been. The Fed effectively sets UK IRs.

 

 

 

 

 

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20 hours ago, spunko said:

.

I was driving along an old haunt yesterday, and the former huge paper mills have all been knocked down and in their place is - well, no prizes for guessing.

 

 

 

Scandi have all the trees for paper.

Unless its bank notes then UK has no competitive advantage making paper - scandis do that now.

Ditto ship building. UK no long has the domestic ron and coal mines. None of the ports are big enough for the panamax+++ ships or cruise ships that make up the bulk of worlds shipbuilding.

 

 

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6 hours ago, MrPin said:

Well are you offering a job?

A few years back, the young-ish graduates at the place  I worked were sent on a soldering course. Despite their "first class" electronic engineering degrees, they obviously never tried making anything. All but one was a "clipboard Johnny".

My nipper is doing a degree in electronic engineering. He is currently on a placement at JLR. As he grew up I made sure he was also developing his practical skills by spannering on bikes, doing DIY with me. He joined a young engineers club, built his own 3d printer, and showed it at the model engineering exhibition. He lives with a lad who also is a maker. Their flat is knee deep in wires, LEDs, Arduinos and that sort of thing. 

I like to the he is going to be very well placed when he hits the job market. As long as he finds an employer who appreciates those skills. 

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25 minutes ago, spygirl said:

UK and US are basically orderly, lawful countries, with a relative open market and hands off governments.

These allow niches to open and develop.

Once you start down government intervention and bent markets then you end up with something between Europe and the USSR.

 

 

Look at modifying cars for instance. You can basically do whatever you like both here and in the US. That's why you can have road legal motorized sofas! 

Look at Germany. You can't even change the wheels on you car unless they are TUV approved!

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9 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

I really wish they would look at the tidal barrage again. I think it was supposed to provide 15% of our energy requirements back then

As for heavy industry - not going to happen if we carry on the way we are. We would need to bring back proper apprenticeships - five years on the tools, one day a week at college. How many proper toolmakers are there in the UK these days? I guess places like BAE or Rolls still have a few, but nothing like we used to have.

Kids need to aspire to skilled, blue-collar jobs. I'm still on the tools daily. I wouldn't swap it for a desk job in a million years. But I don't know that many kids would aspire to it.  It's just not seen as a good way to make a living.

But the shortage of skills is slowly being refelcted in salaries. Our starting salary for decent electronics people who can work to component level is well over 40k plus a 40k car. After five years you can take that to 60k+ And we still can't find anyone young who can do it.  We will have to start offering more soon.

 

Long gone.

Tool makers only exist in very small numbers for undeveloped orgs which are being run off for cash.

 

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9 hours ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

The City chose the City, you mean, by taking over and funding all the political parties like a vampire squid on the face of the UK.

Heavy industry :

Has nasty rough people working there who don't always have clean clothes or a suit.

Occasionally strikes when some of the workers want more than a hundredth of the City salaries.

Never promises highly paid advisory roles to ex ministers and MPs.

 

So in answer to the OP, unless a benevolent billionaire is found to rescue UK politics from the City and hand the power back, no heavy industry won't recover.

 

UK heavy industry as was/as people was fondly remembering it, made very little money.

After 2008 neither did The City.

Both are going as a thing.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Libspero said:


As @spygirl said,  I’m in favour if it’s viable/profitable.    But as far as I can see the only market would be the UK..  and that is assuming we introduced protectionist trade policies (which would then force up cost bases and make other exporting industries less viable):

1).  We will never be cheapest because wage arbitrage and energy costs* 

2). We will never sell to anyone not buying the cheapest because they will have their own protectionist policies / “anti dumping” rules.

 

(*unless green energy somehow turns out to be a cheap source of limitless power)

Looking forward UK energy position looks good.

Due to that green visionary - Maggy - the UK is about 20-30 years down the road compared to the less of Europe.

Coal power stations are way on their way out.

The UK population is relatively grown up and accepts Nuke power stations.

We also have access to one to the worlds best areas for offshore windy mills - Dogger bank.

And the UK has abundant access to one of he worlds most precious quantities - fresh water.

 

 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Oh yes.

Having been through this a few times I would say that if you wanted to deliberately design a process to create unnecessary work for lawyers then it would come out similar to what we have at present.

Also the process of providing security which is tied up in these loans. Fine in principle but unbelievably archaic in practice.

It wont come from within the CIty/olde finance -  they are too vested in the current inefficient ways.

UKGOV and people need to grow up and see the The City as more Red Robbo in a suit.

Its looking like all this olde world fuckwittery is ending.

The computing powers there to create a baord lqiuid market where standardised debt can be traded.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

Oh yes.

Having been through this a few times I would say that if you wanted to deliberately design a process to create unnecessary work for lawyers then it would come out similar to what we have at present.

Also the process of providing security which is tied up in these loans. Fine in principle but unbelievably archaic in practice.

Im use a work (c) me -

Whole sale financial containerisation of finance.

As in the metal containers. Not literally mind.

But look at what containers did to the dockers.

Look at typesetting v printers.

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Scandi have all the trees for paper.

Unless its bank notes then UK has no competitive advantage making paper - scandis do that now.

Ditto ship building. UK no long has the domestic ron and coal mines. None of the ports are big enough for the panamax+++ ships or cruise ships that make up the bulk of worlds shipbuilding.

 

 

Fine, but the tacit acceptance of slaveboxes in place of industry isn't one I'll ever support. Plenty of other industries should fill the void.

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Just now, spygirl said:

It wont come from within the CIty/olde finance -  they are too vested in the current inefficient ways.

UKGOV and people need to grow up and see the The City as more Red Robbo in a suit.

Its looking like all this olde world fuckwittery is ending.

The computing powers there to create a baord lqiuid market where standardised debt can be traded.

 

 

The problem as I see it is how do you gain assurance of the financial stability of the borrower prior to lending them thirty year money?

I've seen it done where a borrower assembles a panel of lenders by putting this effort in upfront and then can borrow new funds, as opposed to drawdown within an existing facility, at a day's notice.

It works this way around: multiple lenders with one borrower.

The other way round: less so. A more robust credit rating would do it if lenders could then gain recompense from the rating agency if the borrower defaulted.

This would however make the credit rating far more expensive to obtain in order to fund insurance for this and that would probably cost more than the current set of arcane rituals.

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10 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

.......And we still can't find anyone young who can do it.  We will have to start offering more soon.

 

not prepared to train them?.....or looking for 'experienced' ...... not those who couldn't get experience because they had no experience..?!

?

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10 hours ago, Bandit Banzai said:

I really wish they would look at the tidal barrage again. I think it was supposed to provide 15% of our energy requirements back then

As for heavy industry - not going to happen if we carry on the way we are. We would need to bring back proper apprenticeships - five years on the tools, one day a week at college. How many proper toolmakers are there in the UK these days? I guess places like BAE or Rolls still have a few, but nothing like we used to have.

Kids need to aspire to skilled, blue-collar jobs. I'm still on the tools daily. I wouldn't swap it for a desk job in a million years. But I don't know that many kids would aspire to it.  It's just not seen as a good way to make a living.

But the shortage of skills is slowly being refelcted in salaries. Our starting salary for decent electronics people who can work to component level is well over 40k plus a 40k car. After five years you can take that to 60k+ And we still can't find anyone young who can do it.  We will have to start offering more soon.

 

China targeted electronic production..

All the work went to China from ~97.

The rest is history.

Works coming back.

Chinas no longer cheap enough for the cheap stuff.

All the western spy agencies say 'No' for the complex stuff.

Why in fuck would you offer a 40k salary and 40k car to attract someone?

Its not access to transport stopping people, its housing costs.

Offer price of local 3 BR house / 3.

Besides, company cars are taxed heavily.

Make sure your office/unit is near public transport and that you are paying inline with local housing costs.

Sorted.

 

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2 hours ago, spygirl said:

For manual  work you need to speak the speak the local language.

Functioning English skills fizzle out at lower management levels.

For a lot (not all) of manual work in places like the Middle East you need to be willing to earn an Indians wage.

My life involves going to places and seeing what actually happens to form a judgement, so i can honestly say your claim that "Functioning English skills fizzle out at lower management levels" is complete and utter bollocks.

Its not 1980 anymore sunshine, wake up!

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

UK heavy industry as was/as people was fondly remembering it, made very little money.

After 2008 neither did The City.

Both are going as a thing.

 

 

 

 

The City can't "go" as a thing while it maintains a grip over the political class in all parties. It may get less profitable, but it will still always have enough to keep directing the successive governments, that money is lifeblood to the politicos and chickenfeed to the banks. 

 

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Just now, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

The City can't "go" as a thing while it maintains a grip over the political class in all parties. It may get less profitable, but it will still always have enough to keep directing the successive governments, that money is lifeblood to the politicos and chickenfeed to the banks. 

 

Its much over exaggerated by the daft left.

File under 'Jews control the world'

If its controlling the UK, pulling the strings, its making a pretty piss poor effort since 2008.

The finance sector is lurching down and down.

Banks trade st les than assets.

 

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1 minute ago, swiss_democracy_for_all said:

The City can't "go" as a thing while it maintains a grip over the political class in all parties. It may get less profitable, but it will still always have enough to keep directing the successive governments, that money is lifeblood to the politicos and chickenfeed to the banks. 

 

Doesnt Switzerland have a relatively healthy heavy industry working along side its money laundering operation?

Or is it just a case they're based there to keep their tax bill down.

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