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Actual risk of Covid death for a 50 yr old.


Bornagain
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King Penda

It’s going to be safe to have for most I’m just interested in how far they will go to get the refuseneks jabbed .and I get to cause some ace debates with friends.but I know I will be forced to have it

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The Masked Tulip
8 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

It’s going to be safe to have for most I’m just interested in how far they will go to get the refuseneks jabbed .and I get to cause some ace debates with friends.but I know I will be forced to have it

Therein lies the problem. What if you are not one of the most?

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King Penda
1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

Therein lies the problem. What if you are not one of the most?

The black cavalry ride to the rescue I hope

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Democorruptcy

Dying in a RTA on their way to the vaccination centre is a greater risk than the virus for younger folk?

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ashestoashes
44 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

The black cavalry ride to the rescue I hope

the least I can do to offset my white guilt is to be last in the queue behind every bame person on the planet

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Bornagain
15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Dying in a RTA on their way to the vaccination centre is a greater risk than the virus for younger folk?

I will repeat the exercise for a 20 yr old.

20 is mid range for the 0-40 cohort.

Total population of 0-40 yr olds in England  = 27.389 million

Assume 10% have been infected = 2.739 million

615 have died in total = 0.02245%

87 have died with no pre-existing condtiom = 0.00318%  - 3 in 100,000 people.

 

 

 

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King Penda
21 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

the least I can do to offset my white guilt is to be last in the queue behind every bame person on the planet

But but you might give it to an unjabbed person of colour.your murderer you

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King Penda
10 minutes ago, Bornagain said:

I will repeat the exercise for a 20 yr old.

20 is mid range for the 0-40 cohort.

Total population of 0-40 yr olds in England  = 27.389 million

Assume 10% have been infected = 2.739 million

615 have died in total = 0.02245%

87 have died with no pre-existing condtiom = 0.00318%  - 3 in 100,000 people.

 

 

 

How many of the 87 were persons of colour

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ashestoashes
13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

But but you might give it to an unjabbed person of colour.your murderer you

unlikely

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Hail the Tripod

Most of the casualties that are touted as “no pre-existing conditions” that get in the papers look obese and deeply unhealthy.

I would think you could be confident the odds for people with a good diet and who do a bit of exercise are another order of magnitude lower.

Then there’s vitamin C and D levels.

 

I’m doubtful population averages really tell you much about your personal level of risk.

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56 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

But but you might give it to an unjabbed person of colour.your murderer you

I will keep a very safe distance from "people of colour" so no murder occurs :)

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Andersen

@Bornagain - well presented, thanks :Beer: 

Percentages are low but would be even lower if you could find accurate figures for 3 other factors: BMI (overweight), fitness levels (or lack of, combined with Vit C & D intake), and a definition of pre-existing conditions (ref newspaper reports with couch potatoes being described as healthy individuals).

The only figures which could be accurate are number of deaths by age, anything else can be "mis-categorised" (or deliberately manipulated). Note some NHS figures (the ones you have?) are for deaths in hospitals only, others (in care homes or at home) are not included). NHS https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/04/total-number-of-covid-19-deaths-in-england-by-date-of-death/

Links: "no pre-exisiting cause" is *not* from medical history but only from the causes on the death certificate  https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19deathswithandwithoutunderlyinghealthconditions

 

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

What gets me is that this sort of information isn't officially available.

I know this sort-of makes sense -- because if they told everyone how little risk they're under they'd not obey the rules.  

It is pretty crazy, actually -- They can't only lock-down the vulnerable because they'd not obey the rules if it was only them, so they have to lock-down everyone.  But normal folk wouldn't behave if they knew how little risk they're really under, so they have to keep quiet about their risks to make them behave.  So we end up with lockdown for everyone and suppression of the truth.

This has now led to a serious problem with the vaccines -- they're 'encouraging' many to clamour for the vaccines by being complicit in allowing people to significantly misunderstanding their own risks from covid.  To give informed consent means that individuals should really understand the actual risks they're under.

The fact that they're not reporting on the risks of the vaccines (or just if 'they don't know yet') is icing on the cake (when it comes to making a risks/benefits analysis).

 

Very very good post 

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Bus Stop Boxer
1 hour ago, Bornagain said:

I will repeat the exercise for a 20 yr old.

20 is mid range for the 0-40 cohort.

Total population of 0-40 yr olds in England  = 27.389 million

Assume 10% have been infected = 2.739 million

615 have died in total = 0.02245%

87 have died with no pre-existing condtiom = 0.00318%  - 3 in 100,000 people.

 

 

 

A further (impossible) step,  would be to cross reference "no pre existing conditions" with pics of victims from The Daily Mail.

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The risk is still greater in terms of lower odds than winning the lottery yet millions still play that. Don't gamble your health. There is no evidence the vaccine causes severe side effects.

Deaths are just the headline grabber, it's the hospitalisations they are wanting to manage via lockdowns and vaccines. They are closing the nightingales as they 'weren't needed' yet the real reason is insufficient NHS staff to run them alongside the hospitals. If it was really based on NHS bed capacity instead of staff levels there would be no current lockdown as it's always been manageable.

Saw someone on the news earler saying that BAME should be prioritised in the vaccine queue due to their higher than average risk of severe illness from covid. Fine by me. Gives more time for proper evidence of anything untoward with the vaccines materialising.

How long do you wait to see if they really are safe? What's going to happen first, a house price crash or an admittance through irrefutable evidence that the vaccine is causing bigger health problems than catching covid? xD

They're not down to my age range yet for the call-up so still mulling over the plus/minus of either option.

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reformed nice guy

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2020

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras45-quarterly-statistics

Its hard to find broken down stats, but I think there were 1580 deaths per year for the last 12 months. Thats roughly a 0.00235% chance of death from cars for the UK, and that was during a year in which people were locked up in their own homes.

 

 

 

 

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Wight Flight
8 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2020

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras45-quarterly-statistics

Its hard to find broken down stats, but I think there were 1580 deaths per year for the last 12 months. Thats roughly a 0.00235% chance of death from cars for the UK, and that was during a year in which people were locked up in their own homes.

 

 

 

 

Don't forget those figures will also be strongly skewed towards the under 25s

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5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Dying in a RTA on their way to the vaccination centre is a greater risk than the virus for younger folk?

Come on @Bornagain we need the odds of this too :Jumping:

 

 

25 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2020

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/ras45-quarterly-statistics

Its hard to find broken down stats, but I think there were 1580 deaths per year for the last 12 months. Thats roughly a 0.00235% chance of death from cars for the UK, and that was during a year in which people were locked up in their own homes.

 

 

 

 

This includes everyone related to vehicle death i.e pedestrians too I think.

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5 hours ago, dgul said:

What gets me is that this sort of information isn't officially available

It also riles me that the government has consistently given the wrong information on actions that would help individuals. Worse still they leave junk food shops open and close gyms.

It's pitiful that people cannot think for themselves and act like lemmings following any nonsense advice from the government.

I saw today 78% of covid hospitalisations are obese people.

We here knew excess weight and obesity were major risk factors months ago.

I've lost over a stone for the first time in years, maybe others could help themselves too.

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, stokiescum said:

It’s going to be safe to have for most I’m just interested in how far they will go to get the refuseneks jabbed .and I get to cause some ace debates with friends.but I know I will be forced to have it

I'm not going to have the vaccine for at least a year.See how many people suffer from it.There's already some evidence that it may not be worth giving to elderly people with some conditions but the data isn't clear yet.

There's a lot of pressure on care home staff,where the Landlords are basically saying 'no jab no job' but few of the staff are calling them out on it,if they did,they'd be left alone.

There's no evidence that it stops transmission,which even the govt is saying.

Politically,they need to vaccinae so we can pretend that this was actually a pandemic and not just the worst respiratory season since 2008.In terms of all cause mortality,all the years preceding 2008 were worse than 2020.

4 hours ago, Bornagain said:

I will repeat the exercise for a 20 yr old.

20 is mid range for the 0-40 cohort.

Total population of 0-40 yr olds in England  = 27.389 million

Assume 10% have been infected = 2.739 million

615 have died in total = 0.02245%

87 have died with no pre-existing condtiom = 0.00318%  - 3 in 100,000 people.

 

 

 

The situation is even worse if you actually classify deaths by cause rather than what's on the death certificate.A postive test and death within 28 days is a covid death.But there are a lot of people who die from other causes but are classed as covid deaths.

I maintain the risk of suicide or car crashes is worse than covid for msot under 50's.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_Kingdom

image.png.7155374897c7075029a524d2c7db06fe.png

image.png.5b3eee19dac944bdb9a317b926798ce2.png

image.png.327b5eec09ae578449ab449bbea3dcce.png

2 hours ago, BoSon said:

The risk is still greater in terms of lower odds than winning the lottery yet millions still play that. Don't gamble your health. There is no evidence the vaccine causes severe side effects.

Deaths are just the headline grabber, it's the hospitalisations they are wanting to manage via lockdowns and vaccines. They are closing the nightingales as they 'weren't needed' yet the real reason is insufficient NHS staff to run them alongside the hospitals. If it was really based on NHS bed capacity instead of staff levels there would be no current lockdown as it's always been manageable.

Saw someone on the news earler saying that BAME should be prioritised in the vaccine queue due to their higher than average risk of severe illness from covid. Fine by me. Gives more time for proper evidence of anything untoward with the vaccines materialising.

How long do you wait to see if they really are safe? What's going to happen first, a house price crash or an admittance through irrefutable evidence that the vaccine is causing bigger health problems than catching covid? xD

They're not down to my age range yet for the call-up so still mulling over the plus/minus of either option.

Even without the lockdown,Covid was manageable.The truth is starting to emerge about the amount of deaths caused by lockdown which will continue for some years due to msised cancer diagnoses.

Worth noting the ICU admissions data for Jan 15th 2021 which was the peak of the respiratory season showed admissions for myocardial infarcation down 50% iirc and strokes down 60%,pneumonia down 80% etc etc.Covid hasn't cured the population of these dieseases

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