Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

What risk are you at?


Stunley Andwin
 Share

Recommended Posts

Stunley Andwin

Very simple little internet app, takes about 30 seconds to complete and provides an estimate of risk of death and hospital admission, as calculated by an Oxford University algorithm. Oxford University has in the past been far more accurate than "Nervous Neil" of Imperial College.

https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

I am as follows

COVID associated death 0.0016%

1 in 62500

 

COVID associated hospital admission 0.0277%

1 in 3610

 

What about you DOSBODS? Tell any bedwetters about it!

  • Informative 2
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wight Flight
34 minutes ago, Stunley Andwin said:

Very simple little internet app, takes about 30 seconds to complete and provides an estimate of risk of death and hospital admission, as calculated by an Oxford University algorithm. Oxford University has in the past been far more accurate than "Nervous Neil" of Imperial College.

https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

I am as follows

COVID associated death 0.0016%

1 in 62500

 

COVID associated hospital admission 0.0277%

1 in 3610

 

What about you DOSBODS? Tell any bedwetters about it!

That is assuming you catch it. My chance of that is virtually zero.

 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the gardener

 

I'm at so little risk it's not even worth giving a single, solitary, fuck about it.

I'm over 50 (just).  If I live to 100 I've got less than 18868 days left.  The risk below is over a 90 day period as well, I've only got about 200 90-day periods left if I reach 100.

People are literally throwing themselves in hedges to avoid walking near me for fear of catching covid - FFS!

 

image.thumb.png.d5a60add86a56cec4df8b86e60e12e4e.png

 

In other words in a crowd of 10000 people with the same risk factors, 1 or less are likely to catch and die from COVID-19 and 6 to be admitted to hospital during a 90 day period similar to the recent peak.

image.png

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

the gardener

 

Here's the results for my 82 year old mother - life expectancy of 90 - so around 32 x 90-day periods left.

 

image.thumb.png.c62f9ce76b48c61337f475aebf7bd0ef.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bkkandrew

I am at risk of a heart attack with my blood pressure rising daily by interference in my country by meddling peddlers of poison.

  • Agree 4
  • Lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

fishman

About 20 years a did a few free-fall parachute jumps. I'm glad Whitty wasn't in the plane advising on the risk.

  • Lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 in 167,000.

I told my mum hers were 1 in 5500 which she understood. Bizarrely she doesn't seem to understand that the odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 139,838,160.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Carl Fimble
6 minutes ago, spunko said:

1 in 167,000.

I told my mum hers were 1 in 5500 which she understood. Bizarrely she doesn't seem to understand that the odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 139,838,160.

Maybe tell her she could die from Covid over 25 thousand times for every lottery win!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

honkydonkey

image.thumb.png.fb107fb830dad3c5c67d795cd0a50309.png
 

Nice knowing you all.  Guessed none of you realised I’m a homeless, obese, 100 year old Bangladeshi Woman with downs, kidney transplant and a whole host of other shit wrong with me lol. 

Edited by honkydonkey
  • Informative 1
  • Lol 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

honkydonkey
Just now, Cosmic Apple said:

Can I have your stuff?

Sure, I’ll leave it in the doorway of Boots for you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wight Flight
42 minutes ago, spunko said:

1 in 167,000.

I told my mum hers were 1 in 5500 which she understood. Bizarrely she doesn't seem to understand that the odds of winning the lottery are 1 in 139,838,160.

I don't do the lottery either, so my risk is still pretty much zero on both counts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ThePurpleBird

Mid 40’s, fit, healthy, never ill and run everyday.   May have had it already.  Never been tested.  Zero risk.  Why would I agree to some untested poison being jabbed into me?  Everyone around me been vaxed even friends who want to go on holiday.  Pressure already from work.  Feel like moving to middle of woods away from people

  • Agree 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

stokiescum
20 minutes ago, LC1 said:

1 in 2899 for hospital admission sounds too high to me :(

I’ve put 16kg since quitting work and shot up the rankings so weight must be very significant.compulsory diets on the way

Edited by stokiescum
  • Cheers 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’ve put 16kg since quitting work and shot up the rankings so weight must be very significant.compulsory diets on the way

I think it's the extra alcohol, and not moving around much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

swiss_democracy_for_all
13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’ve put 16kg since quitting work and shot up the rankings so weight must be very significant.compulsory diets on the way

I just ran it through with different weights - peak fitness fairly skinny surfing weight(85kg), current weight(93kg), made little difference. It made a big difference what age I put though - 56 (real age) is a lot worse than 46!

 

  • Informative 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, LC1 said:

1 in 2899 for hospital admission sounds too high to me :(

Maybe they know something covid and the next 90 days...

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

PaulParanoia
Absolute risk (a) Absolute risk with no risk factors (b) Relative risk (a/b)
COVID associated death 0.0032% 1 in 31250 0.0038% 1 in 26316 0.8421
COVID associated hospital admission 0.0323% 1 in 3096 0.0455% 1 in 2198 0.7099

 

I'm shitting it!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

swiss_democracy_for_all

 

The risk table

The table shows the absolute risk of catching and dying COVID-19 over a 90-day period based on data from the first peak of the pandemic. There is a comparison with the risk for a person of the same age and sex but with no risk factors. The relative risk is the absolute risk divided by this average risk.

 

  Absolute risk (a) Absolute risk with no risk factors (b) Relative risk (a/b)
COVID associated death 0.0116% 1 in 8621 0.0113% 1 in 8850 1.0265
COVID associated hospital admission 0.0792% 1 in 1263 0.0733% 1 in 1364 1.0805

 

I might, MIGHT, even as a foreigner get better hospital treatment in Switzerland, and I know my Vitamin D levels are good, so my odds are probably slightly better than the result shown.

 

One thing that should be pointed out is that the data in the algorithm is from the peak of the first wave - in that wave, treatments were less good in the UK, but the virus was less powerful. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...