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Risk of death by age group if you catch the coof


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BWW

I am trying [and failing] to find out the % who have died recorded/counted as coof as a proportion of those who have tested poz.

Since UK stats are: died within 28/60 days, taking total deaths and total individuals testing poz in a 6-9 month period will give a rough idea.

Deaths are over reported / not all infected will be counted which will cause % to be higher than actual. Poz tests are counted twice and include false-poz which will cause % to be lower than actual.

However I've hit a brick wall at the point of trying to get the data. Worse searching for data from other euro countries in the local lingo hits the same brick wall. Obviously that points to conspiracy which is not the point of this thread [there is one for that]. I would just like to know the chance of death if catching the disease.

Will add seperate posts quoting related discussions on the main pandemic thread and

A simple age group vs % who died after getting coof would be good. Does it exist?

Better still add in ethnicity/bmi/health factors.

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BWW

From gov, it appears I can get raw data [but will have to do a bit of work with a download for each day of data] BUT I can't get it to work.

It appears they've written an api that once you've selected your data returns no file [first attempt from opera on android], then server problem [after refesh].

Similar from Firefox on windows, chrome and firefox and edge on android.

I started here and selected two agedemographic data points:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

This gives download url of:

https://api.coronavirus.data.gov.uk/v2/data?areaType=overview&metric=newCasesBySpecimenDateAgeDemographics&metric=newDeaths28DaysByDeathDateAgeDemographics&format=csv&release=2020-11-03

 
Obviously I've forgotton to plug it in or something, anyone had success there / want to help the dumb blond?
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BWW

The reason is that I  wish to provide some statistics from gov/ons/nhs or other country equivalent that would actually be believed by someone who is very spooked.

 

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eight
3 minutes ago, BWW said:

The reason is that I  wish to provide some statistics from gov/ons/nhs or other country equivalent that would actually be believed by someone who is very spooked.

 

There'll be no helping them. As was discussed yesterday, people just need to come to their senses in their own time.

  • Agree 4
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BWW
11 minutes ago, eight said:

There'll be no helping them. As was discussed yesterday, people just need to come to their senses in their own time.

In this case the correct statistics from a gov source would help. Individuals are different [this one - oxbridge science grad who briefly worked at porton down!].

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I've used the antibody data from the Coronavirus Infection Survey (pre-Jan 2021 so the vaccines don't affect the results)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/previousReleases

and excess mortality data

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports

for the type of analysis you seem to be looking for

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BWW
3 hours ago, Imp said:

I've used the antibody data from the Coronavirus Infection Survey (pre-Jan 2021 so the vaccines don't affect the results)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/previousReleases

and excess mortality data

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/excess-mortality-in-england-weekly-reports

for the type of analysis you seem to be looking for

Thanks, like your thinking. Using the antibodies removes all question of whether cases/poztest counts are unique individuals or not [plus the false poz issue but that is correctable with a %].

From the second link an interesting table

Quote

shown in yellow.

Table 1 - Males
 
Age group (years) Registered deaths Expected deaths Ratio registered / expected Excess deaths COVID-19 deaths COVID-19 deaths as % excess
0-14 1,175 1,274 -* −99 5 -
15-44 6,683 5,773 1.16 910 415 45.6%
45-64 29,673 23,031 1.29 6,642 4,008 60.3%
65-74 39,001 31,629 1.23 7,372 6,434 87.3%
75-84 64,142 52,961 1.21 11,181 12,840 >100%+
85+ 65,018 55,038 1.18 9,980 12,744 >100%+
Total 205,692 169,705 1.21 35,987 36,446 >100%+

In those bottom two groups, 3,400 total who recorded as covid deaths would have died anyway [on average]. If the age groups were broken down for more detail this would likely be more. Even the 3400 older folk that plainly would have died anyway mean the reported covid deaths are ca.10% too high.

The two data sets have different age group ranges - seem they are determined to make it difficult to get an accurate figure. Will try again later with a clear head.

 

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Captain Cavey

In my province, the carnage is currently a huge 0.03% and 88% of them over 70 years old.

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BWW
10 hours ago, Imp said:

I've used the antibody data from the Coronavirus Infection Survey (pre-Jan 2021 so the vaccines don't affect the results)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/previousReleases

...

Not only do the age ranges not match other data sets but look at the gaps

Quote

Estimated percentage of those testing positive for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 from a blood sample, by age, 22 December 2020 to 18 January 2021, England

% testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies80 years and over: 25.7
16 to 24 years25 to 34 years35 to 49 years50 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 years and over
05101520253035
Percentage

Source: Office for National Statistics – Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey

Notes:
  1. All results are provisional and subject to revision.
  2. These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which we mean private households.

8 years / 9 years / 14 years /4 years / 4 years / lots of years

Just why those ranges? ... and why is the antibody rate for 80+ so high if they've all been isolating? NHS visits as a patient? I can't think of another reason, just strange.

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Bus Stop Boxer
13 hours ago, BWW said:

In this case the correct statistics from a gov source would help. Individuals are different [this one - oxbridge science grad who briefly worked at porton down!].

And it falls to you, to do this for them.....?

Good lawd.

Not having a dig at you btw.;)

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