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Risk of Death and Hospitalisation Calculator


Vendetta
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Vendetta

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

This is most likely bollocks but it allows you to enter age, sex and any underlying health conditions.

Then based on 450,000 people in US it works out your chance of death and ending up in hospital if you catch Covid. 

For me:

0.3% chance of death

7.5% chance of ending up in hospital

I can’t believe those figures.

Probably out my a factor or 10. 

More likely 0.03% (death) and 0.75% (hospitalisation) respectively. 
 

Right I’m going to play around with it and see if I can get a 100% death rate.....

 

F6335625-C320-41D1-836D-A210D98F4711.jpeg

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Vendetta

88 year old male with lots of health issues:

47.3% chance of Hospitalisation 

37.3% chance of Death

(I still would not think about having one of those vaccines mind.....). 

6EDD469C-28AB-4152-8AC5-7E6452B4002F.thumb.jpeg.285b79e8d6503fa5874d7e883a2438b8.jpeg

 

 

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Chewing Grass

Only includes 3 or 4 morbidities, does not include diet, lifestyle, obesity or level of fitness which are generally much worse in the USA overall.

I think your assumption of 0.03% death and 0.75% for ending up in the broad term of hospitalisation is about right for an average 55 year old bloke who is not obese and doesn't have any serious conditions.

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Vendetta
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Only includes 3 or 4 morbidities, does not include diet, lifestyle, obesity or level of fitness which are generally much worse in the USA overall.

I think your assumption of 0.03% death and 0.75% for ending up in the broad term of hospitalisation is about right for an average 55 year old bloke who is not obese and doesn't have any serious conditions.

It has loads of morbidities....

Diabetes 1 and 2, Obesity, etc etc....

Edited by Vendetta
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Vendetta
3 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Only includes 3 or 4 morbidities, does not include diet, lifestyle, obesity or level of fitness which are generally much worse in the USA overall.

I think your assumption of 0.03% death and 0.75% for ending up in the broad term of hospitalisation is about right for an average 55 year old bloke who is not obese and doesn't have any serious conditions.

I have done one for you @Chewing Grass

Let me know if you have any other underlying conditions.

149B55E8-F6A0-4A3E-A566-AB528D0CD4FD.jpeg

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The Generation Game
1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

This is most likely bollocks but it allows you to enter age, sex and any underlying health conditions.

Then based on 450,000 people in US it works out your chance of death and ending up in hospital if you catch Covid. 

For me:

0.3% chance of death

7.5% chance of ending up in hospital

I can’t believe those figures.

Probably out my a factor or 10. 

More likely 0.03% (death) and 0.75% (hospitalisation) respectively. 
 

Right I’m going to play around with it and see if I can get a 100% death rate.....

 

F6335625-C320-41D1-836D-A210D98F4711.jpeg

I'm sure they've just announced 3m dead so, even at the most basic level:

3m/8bn ~ 1 in 2600. 

Or 0.0375%

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OurDayWillCome
2 hours ago, The Generation Game said:

I'm sure they've just announced 3m dead so, even at the most basic level:

3m/8bn ~ 1 in 2600. 

Or 0.0375%

And that’s with, not of. Makes the risk for healthy under 50’s minuscule. Unlike the damage caused by listening to so called experts. Worse than witches, burn them before they do more damage. Or dunk them and see if they float... and then burn them.

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Chewing Grass is a woman? :CryBaby:

I quite like this idea of doing ones for other members. I've done one for @MrPin , who has had an organ transplant (imo). 

Screenshot_2021-04-18-08-06-30-668_com.sec.android.app.sbrowser.jpg

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One percent
7 minutes ago, spunko said:

Chewing Grass is a woman? :CryBaby:

I quite like this idea of doing ones for other members. I've done one for @MrPin , who has had an organ transplant (imo). 

Screenshot_2021-04-18-08-06-30-668_com.sec.android.app.sbrowser.jpg

@MrPin is a vampire and so age is undetermined and he can only be killed by sunlight, running water or a stake through the heart. 

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Vendetta
16 minutes ago, spunko said:

Chewing Grass is a woman? :CryBaby:

A fat diabetic 55 yr old woman.... so I assumed? 

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11 minutes ago, One percent said:

@MrPin is a vampire and so age is undetermined and he can only be killed by sunlight, running water or a stake through the heart. 

What utter nonsense. You'll be calling Frank a trucker next. Anyway you have seen me with Mr Abdul's extremely blonde camel, in Egypt.

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One percent
3 minutes ago, MrPin said:

What utter nonsense. You'll be calling Frank a trucker next. Anyway you have seen me with Mr Abdul's extremely blonde camel, in Egypt.

I’ve also seen you hanging about cemeteries in a long flowing coat. o.O

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Bornagain

Somebody posted this link on here a while ago   https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation

I posted something on here in March that used ONS data on antibodies in the population, and NHS numbers on the age of people dying and the presence or otherwise of pre-existing conditions ; we were able to see the risk of dying for an average 50 yr with no pre-existing conditions is of the order of 1.4 per 10,000 cases of Covid.   This rough and ready calculation is for an average person and does not consider sex, obesity or anything else.

The conclusion of both methods is that if you are not old, fat and ill then relax - the risk of dying of covid is a lot, lot less than the chance of you dying of cancer.

 

 

 

 

 

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PaulParanoia
On 17/04/2021 at 22:49, Vendetta said:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/covid-pandemic-mortality-risk-estimator

This is most likely bollocks but it allows you to enter age, sex and any underlying health conditions.

Then based on 450,000 people in US it works out your chance of death and ending up in hospital if you catch Covid. 

For me:

0.3% chance of death

7.5% chance of ending up in hospital

I can’t believe those figures.

Probably out my a factor or 10. 

More likely 0.03% (death) and 0.75% (hospitalisation) respectively. 
 

Right I’m going to play around with it and see if I can get a 100% death rate.....

 

F6335625-C320-41D1-836D-A210D98F4711.jpeg

Oxford Uni Covid risk calculator ... https://www.qcovid.org/Calculation shows I've got a 0.0038% chance of dying of Covid.  The economist calculator shows 0.3%.  So only out by a factor of 100.

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