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Hurry up with your haircut/pub visit: lockdown imminent


janch
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mosstrooper

I already look like worzel gummidge after 6 months of no haircut. I thought I would turn into a long haired rockstar type with girls swooning, but when your older your long hair just goes wooly and frizzy and you look like a tramp. 

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Jazztraveller
2 minutes ago, janch said:

Breaking news on the BBC:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103

It's only a matter of time before the next one as:

 

..........fears of a new Covid variant.....

 

Matt Hancock said there had been 103 cases of the variant found in the UK

Oh my, imagine my shock...

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Chewing Grass

So who let 100,000 Indians in without quarantine?

Then there are the neighbours, probably more of them with the same version.

If you want to keep your moated Isle sterile then do something robust regarding the incoming rather than continually persecuting the residents.

But, ooooh somebody might say your wacist fazzists.

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3 minutes ago, snaga said:

there will be a never ending stream of variants, the government needs to start breaking it to the public, either we lockdown forever or we don't and allow nature to run it's course.

Hubris to think it can be any different now.

But these are from backward analysis of positive PCR tests? And cases overall continue to plummet. So where's the problem?

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1 minute ago, eight said:

But these are from backward analysis of positive PCR tests? And cases overall continue to plummet. So where's the problem?

wait until November, and many vaccine resistant variants appear.

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The Masked Tulip
3 minutes ago, Loki said:

They will blame the un-vaccinated.  Textbook.

 

Of course. But then they can all he jabbed again... and again... and again.

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mosstrooper
1 hour ago, snaga said:

there will be a never ending stream of variants, the government needs to start breaking it to the public, either we lockdown forever or we don't and allow nature to run it's course.

Hubris to think it can be any different now.

if nature is allowed to run its course it will decimate the elderly population ie >65. Imagine how many colds we get a year and then apply a death rate of 2 or 3% to those aged over 65. This is not going away we've only had 2 waves theres loads of waves to come from all the variants.

If you consider the maths, if your over 65 assume death rate of 3%, or 0.97 survival, per variant. Chances of surviving 10 variants = 0.97 to the power 10. Which equals 75%. So 25% would not survive 10 infections if each has a 3% rate of death. This is the problem, one of them will eventually get you if theres enough variants.

This all assumes randomness but the reality is fit elderly will keep surviving but the unfit will eventually succumb to a variant.

The cumulative survival probability of multiple variants is what matters if your elderly and susceptible. This assumes the vaccine is always lagging the variant so there are multiple windows of risk. 

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6 minutes ago, mosstrooper said:

if nature is allowed to run its course it will decimate the elderly population ie >65. Imagine how many colds we get a year and then apply a death rate of 2 or 3% to those aged over 65. This is not going away we've only had 2 waves theres loads of waves to come from all the variants.

If you consider the maths, if your over 65 assume death rate of 3%, or 0.97 survival, per variant. Chances of surviving 10 variants = 0.97 to the power 10. Which equals 75%. So 25% would not survive 10 infections if each has a 3% rate of death. This is the problem, one of them will eventually get you if theres enough variants.

 

You also have to multiply by the chance of catching it.  I think this was about 30% or so, which then gives .99^10 or 0.9.  

But that said I think we'll have bigger problems that that this coming autumn.

[with a wave inbetween that they'll think they've overcome using a return to lockdown]

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The Grey Man

I have a feeling the phrase Lockdown will be the target of rebranding by officaldom.

In line with other items such as a vaccine passport over ID card.

I think it had been tried with the Tier system but the public caught on that it was Lockdown by another name.

Nothing springs to mind though.

Curve dampening?

Free style hair growth period?

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The Masked Tulip
17 minutes ago, dgul said:

 

But that said I think we'll have bigger problems that that this coming autumn.

 

 

ADE?

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Chewing Grass
1 hour ago, mosstrooper said:

if nature is allowed to run its course it will decimate the elderly population ie >65. Imagine how many colds we get a year and then apply a death rate of 2 or 3% to those aged over 65. This is not going away we've only had 2 waves theres loads of waves to come from all the variants.

If you consider the maths, if your over 65 assume death rate of 3%, or 0.97 survival, per variant. Chances of surviving 10 variants = 0.97 to the power 10. Which equals 75%. So 25% would not survive 10 infections if each has a 3% rate of death. This is the problem, one of them will eventually get you if theres enough variants.

This all assumes randomness but the reality is fit elderly will keep surviving but the unfit will eventually succumb to a variant.

The cumulative survival probability of multiple variants is what matters if your elderly and susceptible. This assumes the vaccine is always lagging the variant so there are multiple windows of risk. 

You can guarantee annuity rates won't go up and the state pension age won't go down.

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Chewing Grass
48 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I can’t keep up. Which variant is this ?

Indian IT one, it was outsourced.

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The Grey Man

The various vaccines accross age groups and a variety of risk factors is to be tested this autumn.

The seedlings of whatever strains are here. Vaccinations, or rather their mass production are at this stage, always trailing.

Already had some signs of butt covering with BJ and lockdown statements doing the work over vaccinations.

I get the feeling from folks behaviour out and about, many realise this may be a short window of freedom. Autumn time they finally have to address their personal contradictions about how the whole thing has and is managed.

Some pubs seem to be really going for it to harvest a possible short income.

If I were a hairdresser I would be punting my services to build up an at home clientelle during this time.

 

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1 hour ago, The Grey Man said:

I have a feeling the phrase Lockdown will be the target of rebranding by officaldom.

In line with other items such as a vaccine passport over ID card.

I think it had been tried with the Tier system but the public caught on that it was Lockdown by another name.

Nothing springs to mind though.

Curve dampening?

Free style hair growth period?

Solitary wellness 

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1 hour ago, The Masked Tulip said:

 

ADE?

I'm mainly worried about vaccine escape variants running riot through the vulnerable groups.  IMO this is very likely (indeed, through universal vaccination they're pretty much setting us up for it).

There is also a real risk of some sort of enhanced disease in the non-vulnerable vaccinated -- but the future isn't at all clear on this point.

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5 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm mainly worried about vaccine escape variants running riot through the vulnerable groups.  IMO this is very likely (indeed, through universal vaccination they're pretty much setting us up for it).

There is also a real risk of some sort of enhanced disease in the non-vulnerable vaccinated -- but the future isn't at all clear on this point.

Why would this be a feature of this virus as opposed to, say, flu?

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2 minutes ago, eight said:

Why would this be a feature of this virus as opposed to, say, flu?

Because most vaccines aren't leaky.  (ie, they provide substantial protection from infection rather than just protection from symptomatic disease).

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A tremendous # on the lung
15 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm mainly worried about vaccine escape variants running riot through the vulnerable groups.  IMO this is very likely (indeed, through universal vaccination they're pretty much setting us up for it).

Wouldn't this happen anyway with the original strain plus mutations?

 

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