Proof the housing market has peaked

[goldbug9999]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Sorry but you really are trying to make things sound more complicated than they are.

If there is a scarcity name me one area where there are no houses for sale.

If diamonds are scarce name me one town where there are no diamonds for sale. Point being that most scarce things are available at an appropriate price, and its the price that reflects the scarcity, not the level of transactions.

[Hancock]

20 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

If diamonds are scarce name me one town where there are no diamonds for sale. Point being that most scarce things are available at an appropriate price, and its the price that reflects the scarcity, not the level of transactions.

Diamond prices are up since extreme loose easy money went to another level.

Must be down to scarcity that the price has gone up since March 2020.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, eek said:

House prices have been created by 2 different factors over the past 20 years.

The move from 3+1 income ratios to 4x joint income 

Low interest rates since 2008

The latter will be fixed at some point as interest rates rise, the former never will be now that cat has been released. 

And it being govt policy to come up with scheme after scheme to make sure they keep on rising.

[Hancock]

23 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

My point was really that a high market liquidity is entirely consistent with a general shortage/scarcity of something (which is why gold and bitcoin have highly liquid markets) i.e. that a high tx volume is not a signal there is "enough" of something.

If your theory is correct, then why were house prices rising for 25 years ... has there been a constant scarcity?

 

[goldbug9999]

 

20 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Diamond prices are up since extreme loose easy money went to another level.

Must be down to scarcity that the price has gone up since March 2020.

Scarcity is relative to amount of money chasing something (obviously)

[Hancock]

13 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Scarcity is relative to amount of money chasing something (obviously)

So you've corrected me on my initial comment when i said something along the lines that house prices are rising due to cheap loose easy money, but are now saying house prices have risen due to cheap loose easy money.

To end it here, can we just be like the spacca Olympics and both be winners, if not i concede and you're right!

[reformed nice guy]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

If your theory is correct, then why were house prices rising for 25 years ... has there been a constant scarcity?

 

300k people are arriving each year (that we know of!) and plenty of them multiply

[Hancock]

8 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

300k people are arriving each year (that we know of!) and plenty of them multiply

This is purely about what happened since lockdown.

But to be honest mate i couldn't give a fuck about wasting any more of my life on the internet arguing about whether there is a housing scarcity that has caused house prices to rise insane amount since Sunaks SDLT bribe.

If there was such a scarcity, he wouldn't be giving tax breaks to people buying houses, and land registry wouldn't be reporting record amounts of sales.

Ive no doubt less houses are coming on the market over the last decade or so, due to landowners and 2nd home owners taking significant numbers off the market ... but its not why we've seen the huge HPI in the last year or so.

[reformed nice guy]

8 minutes ago, Hancock said:

 

But to be honest mate i couldn't give a fuck about wasting any more of my life on the internet arguing about whether there is a housing scarcity that has caused house prices to rise insane amount since Sunaks SDLT bribe.

 

I completely understand!

I think that its more to do with locking people into a lifetime of debt peonage and to stimulate inflation to attempt to stave off deflation, but nothing happens in isolation

[Hancock]

32 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I completely understand!

I think that its more to do with locking people into a lifetime of debt peonage and to stimulate inflation to attempt to stave off deflation, but nothing happens in isolation

My more important issue is when Thailand is going to open up, so i can get the fuck out of here, thats looking about as likely as a UK house price crash.

I am hoping there is one almighty crash ...., where for it to occur, there will be a similar amount of houses on the market, but the tightening of cheap easy money will be the game changer .... though saying that i do wonder if the amount of house sales being brought forward could be a catalyst for a crash .... but thats what we all said when Gidiot introduced his tax on landlords in 2015 or whenever it was which saw a huge spike in house sales, but no crash afterwards.

[Green Devil]

9 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I hope for the sake of future generations prices do fall, but I don't think they will any more.

We're in total fucking clown world where a global pandemic that should have led to a massive recession has instead seen many people better off than ever, getting paid to sit at home, and led to the fastest house price growth since the last financial crash.

As far as I'm concerned any logic regarding housing is out the window.

This. I stupidly put off upsizing to a detached from a 3 bed terrace, thinking the pandemic should halt hpi. Now im priced out, unless i take on another 200-250k debt. Who would of expected the governbankment to print unlimited money to pay thousands in salaries just to keep the hpi wheel spinning. 😂 Fucking clown world. 

[goldbug9999]

3 hours ago, Green Devil said:

This. I stupidly put off upsizing to a detached from a 3 bed terrace, thinking the pandemic should halt hpi. Now im priced out, unless i take on another 200-250k debt. Who would of expected the governbankment to print unlimited money to pay thousands in salaries just to keep the hpi wheel spinning. 😂 Fucking clown world. 

Yeah Id be on the wrong side of this trade were it not for my land lady of the time giving me notice about a year ago.

[Noallegiance]

Anecdotal in relation to peak property crazy. It's on LinkedIn so I can't paste it here.

20-something claims she built a watch business starting out with just £80. Was attempting to sell it a while back. No idea whether the sale was successful. Now has produced a video of her first ever attempt at selling a house.

To be frank, it's cringe-awful. But the fact that a young person has gotten into 'the property game' now is another sign of impending doom. Hopefully. She can't be the only one lulled into thinking property is easy money.

Comments on the video are priceless.

Self-professed property gurus telling her the video is excellent. To my mind it's excellent in the same way that shit is excellent.

"No end to your talent". Well, there is. We've just seen it.

"You'll pick it up in no time. If you're stuck for how to do it, just binge-watch Homes Under The Hammer". Sound.

 

Links to other people's profiles who are running 'property investment academies'.

This property disease is more rampant than whatever the next variant is.

 

Job titles on LinkedIn profiles such as:

 

Exclusive Ladies Laptop Bags - Designed by Women for Women (Not much good with less people travelling around)

Founder - International Retail Academy (Retail's doing well)

Accountability Partner (What the fuck is this?)

Customer Experience Strategist (see above)

Talent Consultant - Specialist Property Recruiters (Afore-mentioned video says no talent required. Grab human from street)

 

It's fucking Twilight Zone stuff.

When this hits the fan, the number of lost made-up-load-of-old-bollox jobs is gonna be staggering.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Anecdotal in relation to peak property crazy. It's on LinkedIn so I can't paste it here.

20-something claims she built a watch business starting out with just £80. Was attempting to sell it a while back. No idea whether the sale was successful. Now has produced a video of her first ever attempt at selling a house.

To be frank, it's cringe-awful. But the fact that a young person has gotten into 'the property game' now is another sign of impending doom. Hopefully. She can't be the only one lulled into thinking property is easy money.

Comments on the video are priceless.

Self-professed property gurus telling her the video is excellent. To my mind it's excellent in the same way that shit is excellent.

"No end to your talent". Well, there is. We've just seen it.

"You'll pick it up in no time. If you're stuck for how to do it, just binge-watch Homes Under The Hammer". Sound.

 

Links to other people's profiles who are running 'property investment academies'.

This property disease is more rampant than whatever the next variant is.

 

Job titles on LinkedIn profiles such as:

 

Exclusive Ladies Laptop Bags - Designed by Women for Women (Not much good with less people travelling around)

Founder - International Retail Academy (Retail's doing well)

Accountability Partner (What the fuck is this?)

Customer Experience Strategist (see above)

Talent Consultant - Specialist Property Recruiters (Afore-mentioned video says no talent required. Grab human from street)

 

It's fucking Twilight Zone stuff.

When this hits the fan, the number of lost made-up-load-of-old-bollox jobs is gonna be staggering.

Homes under the hammer. It will be homes under water. I see 35 yr mortgages for new build with the  lack   of paying work ( bennies will end at some time, I fuckin hope) being the chance for cunts like me to at last see the fruits of proper labour,  or gov backed soy shite. Only saying.

[reformed nice guy]

11 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Anecdotal in relation to peak property crazy. It's on LinkedIn so I can't paste it here.

20-something claims she built a watch business starting out with just £80. Was attempting to sell it a while back. No idea whether the sale was successful. Now has produced a video of her first ever attempt at selling a house.

To be frank, it's cringe-awful. But the fact that a young person has gotten into 'the property game' now is another sign of impending doom. Hopefully. She can't be the only one lulled into thinking property is easy money.

Comments on the video are priceless.

Self-professed property gurus telling her the video is excellent. To my mind it's excellent in the same way that shit is excellent.

"No end to your talent". Well, there is. We've just seen it.

"You'll pick it up in no time. If you're stuck for how to do it, just binge-watch Homes Under The Hammer". Sound.

 

Links to other people's profiles who are running 'property investment academies'.

This property disease is more rampant than whatever the next variant is.

 

Job titles on LinkedIn profiles such as:

 

Exclusive Ladies Laptop Bags - Designed by Women for Women (Not much good with less people travelling around)

Founder - International Retail Academy (Retail's doing well)

Accountability Partner (What the fuck is this?)

Customer Experience Strategist (see above)

Talent Consultant - Specialist Property Recruiters (Afore-mentioned video says no talent required. Grab human from street)

 

It's fucking Twilight Zone stuff.

When this hits the fan, the number of lost made-up-load-of-old-bollox jobs is gonna be staggering.

Many of the made up self employed jobs will be claiming working tax credits and self declaring 16 hours work

Where I am dog walking/grooming is the more common self employed for benefits option

[Frank Hovis]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Many of the made up self employed jobs will be claiming working tax credits and self declaring 16 hours work

Where I am dog walking/grooming is the more common self employed for benefits option

My cousin is a personal trainer, his partner a dog walker.

It's classic working tax credits territory.

[haroldshand]

On 27/07/2021 at 13:53, reformed nice guy said:

300k people are arriving each year (that we know of!) and plenty of them multiply

Prices rising or prices falling, I personally do not give a shit anymore and that's why I am off to central Portugal and  living a peaceful tranquil life with my goats and chicken and Permaculture lifestyle.

The UK has now passed the line of no return where it's going to take a lot of money to live in a safe community in a few years time. My heart will always be in the UK, but is f***ed now

[With a crooked smile]

20 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

It's classic working tax credits territory

I bet a reasonable amount of their pay is in cash as well..

At the guest house I bought I recon 5 to 7.5% of my turn over is cash. I'd love to ask guests who typically pay around £380 to £600 what their employment status is I bet they are majority self employed. It's not to big an issue for me but I means a weekly trip to the post office to pay the money in (keswick has very few banks).