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Food price inflation (and other goods)


JFK
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Frank Hovis
3 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have been in cash savings accounts for 10 years or so, because I am really risk-averse, also don't understand the stock market and such. I always read the DB deflation thread but I have very little idea what people are on about.  Last year I thought this really cannot go on so I opened a crypto trading account, which went well at first. You don't want to hear the rest.

I would say this; though I was doing it before ever I read it.

I'm in premium bonds and cash rather than government bonds; and because I don't live in the US I have a more global spread of trackers.  Though in essence what he recommends is what I do.  A key advantage of trackers is their very low fees; 1.5% or more below "managed" funds.  That's a huge amount when compounded over twenty years: 35%.

 

“My advice to the trustee [for my wife] could not be more simple: Put 10 per cent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 per cent in very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/warren-buffett-gives-simple-investment-advice-to-his-wife-in-annual-letter-to-shareholders/news-story/7a42419bc2995aa86de75a5425c0f8b8

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Wight Flight
3 hours ago, Funn3r said:

We had an annual salary review and if it was a bad year you only got "cost of living increase", which was 5 percent or so usually. Then everybody moaned.

I did this with my staff and learned the hard way.

After 10 years, you are paying 25% more than anyone else, and have become uncompetitive.

It is a shitty race to the bottom.

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jamanda
10 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I have been in cash savings accounts for 10 years or so, because I am really risk-averse, also don't understand the stock market and such. I always read the DB deflation thread but I have very little idea what people are on about.  Last year I thought this really cannot go on so I opened a crypto trading account, which went well at first. You don't want to hear the rest.

I always read that thread and understand very little.  I was, however, nudged into a HL Isa.  I haven't lost all that much.  Yet.

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Harley

Mobile bill going up 3.9% plus CPI (0.7%).  First no doubt of many so I have to decide.  And the decision is.....fight it all, shop around, do without, cut back, or whatever.  So far less has always been more in my book.

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Frank Hovis
29 minutes ago, Harley said:

Mobile bill going up 3.9% plus CPI (0.7%).  First no doubt of many so I have to decide.  And the decision is.....fight it all, shop around, do without, cut back, or whatever.  So far less has always been more in my book.

Unless you want a fancy phone or are always uploading photographs of lunches out to Facebook so need loads of data I have found Tesco mobile excellent value.

Free phone, two year contract (which rolls on after the two years until you want a new phone), and no in-contract price increases.

£7.50 a month gets you a new smartphone.

I've been with them for six or seven years; prior to that I was on PAYG but I find this costs a similar price overall plus you don't feel the need to struggle on with a phone that's begun to play up (needs regular rebooting) as you can simply get a new one by starting a new two year contract.

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Frank Hovis
10 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

I did this with my staff and learned the hard way.

After 10 years, you are paying 25% more than anyone else, and have become uncompetitive.

It is a shitty race to the bottom.

Yes, that perfectly illustrates how badly wages are being suppressed: simply allow them to rise with inflation for a few years and you find yourself paying well above market rates. I worked at one company that adopted that as a reasonable approach to wages; after a few years I was £10k up on my oppo at a similar company who had started the same time as I did, and on the same salary, and we used to compare notes.

Every worker becomes poorer with every passing year but because it's gradual and accepted people aren't noticing it; though when they do they tend to blame the previous generation "OK boomer" rather than the real culprits: the successive governments who have flooded the country with cheap imported labour to keep costs down for their business-owning donors and lobbyists.

And they keep voting for it which baffles me.

To not owning a house add no retirement before SPA and soon add not owning a car.

The slow road back to serfdom for 90% of the population is well advanced indeed; and they're still not seeing it.

A massive house price crash, if it ever happens, will only fix the "not owning a house" section. The move to general impoverishment will grind on regardless.

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Harley
6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Unless you want a fancy phone or are always uploading photographs of lunches out to Facebook so need loads of data I have found Tesco mobile excellent value.

Free phone, two year contract (which rolls on after the two years until you want a new phone), and no in-contract price increases.

£7.50 a month gets you a new smartphone.

I've been with them for six or seven years; prior to that I was on PAYG but I find this costs a similar price overall plus you don't feel the need to struggle on with a phone that's begun to play up (needs regular rebooting) as you can simply get a new one by starting a new two year contract.

I pay £6 per month before the 28p rise!  Far too much, I'm livid.  This is how they get you, nickel and dime!  I always buy my own phone, one generation behind the latest.  Just bagged a Moto G9 Power.  Great to me who knows no better.  About £100 and will last for a few years.  Looking at Smarty, etc for a cheaper rate.  One thing I noticed is they are all more generous on the data allowance.  May go PAYG as its hardly used.  Will haggle with my current provider though first.  Might as well get used to the process/SOP!!!!

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Harley
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Yes, that perfectly illustrates how badly wages are being suppressed: simply allow them to rise with inflation for a few years and you find yourself paying well above market rates. I worked at one company that adopted that as a reasonable approach to wages; after a few years I was £10k up on my oppo at a similar company who had started the same time as I did, and on the same salary, and we used to compare notes.

Every worker becomes poorer with every passing year but because it's gradual and accepted people aren't noticing it; though when they do they tend to blame the previous generation "OK boomer" rather than the real culprits: the successive governments who have flooded the country with cheap imported labour to keep costs down for their business-owning donors and lobbyists.

And they keep voting for it which baffles me.

To not owning a house add no retirement before SPA and soon add not owning a car.

The slow road back to serfdom for 90% of the population is well advanced indeed; and they're still not seeing it.

A massive house price crash, if it ever happens, will only fix the "not owning a house" section. The move to general impoverishment will grind on regardless.

Sucking up distractions provided by TPTB.  I wouldn't have believed how easy it is for them to play people until the Covid saga.  People even promote the across the board Boomer narrative here to the point I wonder if they are plants paid to promote the narrative.  Point is, you either get sucked in and spat out or invest the effort in understanding things like you outline to more effectively deal with the underlings.  I guess the cats out the bag now and we'll see more demonisations than we have already so everyone will eventual get a taste of it as what goes round comes round.  They've fractured society by pitting groups against each other and raising the emotional quotient (gender, race, etc) and now have set the machine up to feed in anti-vaxxers, meat eaters, fuel burners, asset owners, wealth owners, etc, etc.  Whatever ulterior motives they have.  Nudge nudge.  And people will lap it up, as they do.  Plus hypernormalisation at its best.  Dangerous times for many of us.  The rest asked for it by saying nothing and having another bun (probably soon to be gone as well).  TPTB, like the Greek gods, look down on the mortals and visit to play.  And the people worship them.

Edited by Harley
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Democorruptcy

I've been using Tesco home delivery for over a year and can honestly say I haven't noticed a single price rise. When I saw their latest annual results that said turnover was up but profits weren't, I could understand why. The delivery charge became £4.50 instead of variable, so the cheaper options were lost but it would cost me that much in petrol to shop there anyway.

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Don Coglione
9 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

Unless you want a fancy phone or are always uploading photographs of lunches out to Facebook so need loads of data I have found Tesco mobile excellent value.

Free phone, two year contract (which rolls on after the two years until you want a new phone), and no in-contract price increases.

£7.50 a month gets you a new smartphone.

I've been with them for six or seven years; prior to that I was on PAYG but I find this costs a similar price overall plus you don't feel the need to struggle on with a phone that's begun to play up (needs regular rebooting) as you can simply get a new one by starting a new two year contract.

 

3 hours ago, Harley said:

I pay £6 per month before the 28p rise!  Far too much, I'm livid.  This is how they get you, nickel and dime!  I always buy my own phone, one generation behind the latest.  Just bagged a Moto G9 Power.  Great to me who knows no better.  About £100 and will last for a few years.  Looking at Smarty, etc for a cheaper rate.  One thing I noticed is they are all more generous on the data allowance.  May go PAYG as its hardly used.  Will haggle with my current provider though first.  Might as well get used to the process/SOP!!!!

A big yes to both the Moto G9 and Tesco Mobile, albeit I am still on PAYG. Doubt it costs me more than a tenner a month - and the phone seems extremely capable, at least to this numpty.

Bonus for the fact that I have moved 4 or 5 times since signing up with Tesco, so they have no idea of my address.

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5 hours ago, Harley said:

I pay £6 per month before the 28p rise!  Far too much, I'm livid.  This is how they get you, nickel and dime!  I always buy my own phone, one generation behind the latest.  Just bagged a Moto G9 Power.  Great to me who knows no better.  About £100 and will last for a few years.  Looking at Smarty, etc for a cheaper rate.  One thing I noticed is they are all more generous on the data allowance.  May go PAYG as its hardly used.  Will haggle with my current provider though first.  Might as well get used to the process/SOP!!!!

Use a smarty simm in an Huawei router. Don't have a landline any more. Unlimited data,calls n texts all for £18.75 month. Don't get 4G here but on 3G can still use Netflix ( one user only).

Never noticed being throttled back. Three network.

Can recommend!

 

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jamanda

I've just been faffing with my online shop order.  A beef joint which I bought 2 weeks ago has gone up by either £2 or £3, forget which.  It wasn't on offer at the time. Several other items have gone up by 10p, 35p, etc.

Good job the garden is planted up.  I keep threatening the wood pigeons with making some pastry.  This will come when desperate.

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Lightly Toasted
On 08/05/2021 at 11:07, Stinky Wizzleteats said:

All the MSM would be full of pictures of fat single mums with four kids making a sad face in front of an empty cupboard. There would be many cries of "why doesn't somebody dO SoMeThInG?". And the money would start flying. Because no one is allowed to experience hardship nowadays.

The money won't help if the supermarket shelves (not just the shelves of the fat single mum's cupboard) are bereft of ready meals. The more the authorities try to avoid demand destruction by suppressing market signals, the worse things will get for everyone.

 

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Funn3r
On 19/05/2021 at 20:02, Frank Hovis said:

I would say this; though I was doing it before ever I read it.

I'm in premium bonds and cash rather than government bonds; and because I don't live in the US I have a more global spread of trackers.  Though in essence what he recommends is what I do.  A key advantage of trackers is their very low fees; 1.5% or more below "managed" funds.  That's a huge amount when compounded over twenty years: 35%.

 

“My advice to the trustee [for my wife] could not be more simple: Put 10 per cent of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 per cent in very low-cost S&P 500 index fund.”

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/warren-buffett-gives-simple-investment-advice-to-his-wife-in-annual-letter-to-shareholders/news-story/7a42419bc2995aa86de75a5425c0f8b8

I've been thinking about this and decided not to. Everyone in the DB Deflationary thread thinks a Big Kahuna stock market collapse is on the cards at some point quite soon. With my luck it would happen the day after I bought these "Trackers"... 

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Frank Hovis
2 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I've been thinking about this and decided not to. Everyone in the DB Deflationary thread thinks a Big Kahuna stock market collapse is on the cards at some point quite soon. With my luck it would happen the day after I bought these "Trackers"... 

I entirely agree with you.  Look at the chart below.

I have been investing steadily for thirty years so kicked off about 1990; over that time years of growth have far exceeded years of fall and I am well ahead so that the stock market crashes have been to me simple bumps on the road.

In doing this I have had time on my side and a pattern of steady investing.

It would be a very different situation entirely if I was looking to make a first time big jump into equities as you might be being into the peak of 2009, 2007 or possibly now.

In each case though by 2012 they were back up in real terms, and ahead in nominal, before rising further.

Having a chart such as this which strips out inflation shows how simply matching inflation is no great shakes.  Gold beats cash - round of applause there.

Also @One percent as she is in a similar position and may wish to hold fire if there is the possibility of a big correction coming.

 

Total-real-26-2016.jpg

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Harley
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

I entirely agree with you.  Look at the chart below.

I have been investing steadily for thirty years so kicked off about 1990; over that time years of growth have far exceeded years of fall and I am well ahead so that the stock market crashes have been to me simple bumps on the road.

In doing this I have had time on my side and a pattern of steady investing.

It would be a very different situation entirely if I was looking to make a first time big jump into equities as you might be being into the peak of 2009, 2007 or possibly now.

In each case though by 2012 they were back up in real terms, and ahead in nominal, before rising further.

Having a chart such as this which strips out inflation shows how simply matching inflation is no great shakes.  Gold beats cash - round of applause there.

Also @One percent as she is in a similar position and may wish to hold fire if there is the possibility of a big correction coming.

 

Total-real-26-2016.jpg

Gold has returned about 17% pa since I invested way back, but not that far back!

Edited by Harley
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Frank Hovis
23 minutes ago, Harley said:

Gold has returned about 17% pa since I invested way back, but not that far back!

You bought at just the right time then.

If you had bought at the previous peak in 1980 you would have been slightly down by now in real terms.

10664_13446843331790_3.png

 

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Noticed an outrageous example of shrinkflation this week, shower gel.

Now I know as a true dosbodder everyone will say 'just use some fucking soap, a bar of soap costing tuppence will last you and the family 5 years and as long as you pick your pube hairs out of it it can be used everywhere and anytime by anyone)

... anyway, I tend to use some of the hypo-allergenic shower gels, usually Sanex (don't worry dosbodders I use as minimum amount as I can and only shower every other day unless exercising!), so I'm pretty aware of the cost of this and tend to usually buy it on offers - 3 for 2 etc.  Usually the price point per individual large bottle is about £2 and will last me a good few weeks.

I had to buy some more as was running low on the last lot I'd bought (which were on a 3 for 2 offer), I picked up just a single one in Tesco (I know, ripping off bastards and I should get my arse down to B+M .... which I will) - the bottle felt smaller in my hand and I checked the volume; 415 ml.  This seemed an odd size to me, normally they'd be in easily divisible units, 100, 200, 400, 450, 500 etc.  Just struck me an odd number - had a look at some of the other stock on the shelf, a mixture of 'new' size (415ml) and older 450 ml.

I got home and checked against the old bottle I was using - yup, you guessed it, the old one was 500ml 

So basically a whopping 17% decrease in pack size for the same money.   I suspect there was an 'interim' shrinkflation of pack size to 450ml (10% shrinkflation) and now this 'new value' size, to use marketing bollocks.

Looks like a trip to B+M for stock toiletry buying eh.
 

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Just use some fucking soap, a bar of soap costing tuppence will last you and the family 5 years and as long as you pick your pube hairs out of it it can be used everywhere and anytime by anyone

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Bobthebuilder
23 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I've been thinking about this and decided not to. Everyone in the DB Deflationary thread thinks a Big Kahuna stock market collapse is on the cards at some point quite soon. With my luck it would happen the day after I bought these "Trackers"... 

Drip feeding is one way to do it, avoiding buying the tops. Just stick an amount in monthly, so you get the average over time.

Funds, fund of funds and trackers.

Stock market investing is really boring most of the time, like watching paint dry. It only gets exciting when big moves happen or divis come in.

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Frank Hovis
14 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Drip feeding is one way to do it, avoiding buying the tops. Just stick an amount in monthly, so you get the average over time.

Funds, fund of funds and trackers.

Stock market investing is really boring most of the time, like watching paint dry. It only gets exciting when big moves happen or divis come in.

I would jib at funds of funds because that's two lots of management fees plus the transaction fees when they swap them about each year to justify their own fee.  My dad was in these and I asked him to go through and see how much he was being charged in fees each year as a cash sum.  He was horrified and followed my recommendation for low fee index trackers instead; these days he simply copies me so I tell him every time I make a change.

Other than that yes. 

And yes it's fairly boring but when you look at the compounded return from decades then you feel that yes you can live with boring.

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