Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

125k/500k deaths: Three more years


steppensheep
 Share

Recommended Posts

steppensheep
Posted (edited)

I haven't been that reliable with my predictions but I am starting to think we may end up with the 1% dying anyway, as was predicted from the start. The vaccines will turn out to be a lot less protective in practice than under the ideal trial conditions with healthy volunteers, the population will continue to be deprived of exercise and sunlight and further new variants will ensure a repeating seasonal wave. The public is getting more tolerant to deaths (subsequent waves each having higher death tolls so far) presumably as most people gradually become aware that what they're personally experiencing is not corresponding to the hysteria in the media and will tolerate lockdowns less and less. Eventually everyone catches it. 500k die. And were still screwed for the next few years.

 

Edit - probably didn't make my point clear. The reduced incidence thanks to the vaccines will be countered by the less harsh lockdowns, so we'll continue to have infection waves.

Edited by steppensheep
Link to comment
Share on other sites

apples

Deaths from Covid? Or just deaths?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Quote

There were over 695.8 thousand deaths in the United Kingdom in 2020, compared with 604 thousand in 2019. Between 2003 and 2011, the annual number of deaths in the UK fell from 612 thousand to just over 552 thousand. Since 2011 however, the annual number of annual deaths in the United Kingdom has steadily grown, with the number recorded in 2018 a high for the provided time-period.

People die. Older people more likely to die. Water is wet. Film at eleven.

  • Agree 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Adarmo
49 minutes ago, steppensheep said:

I haven't been that reliable with my predictions but I am starting to think we may end up with the 1% dying anyway, as was predicted from the start. The vaccines will turn out to be a lot less protective in practice than under the ideal trial conditions with healthy volunteers, the population will continue to be deprived of exercise and sunlight and further new variants will ensure a repeating seasonal wave. The public is getting more tolerant to deaths (subsequent waves each having higher death tolls so far) presumably as most people gradually become aware that what they're personally experiencing is not corresponding to the hysteria in the media and will tolerate lockdowns less and less. Eventually everyone catches it. 500k die. And were still screwed for the next few years.

 

Edit - probably didn't make my point clear. The reduced incidence thanks to the vaccines will be countered by the less harsh lockdowns, so we'll continue to have infection waves.

I had this thought too, that lockdowns were certainly only delaying the inevitable... bit like coastal erosion. With the vaccines though I'm not so sure... probably will push the big day for the un-dead back a year or three.

Certainly agree that the public are more tolerant about deaths.

43 minutes ago, apples said:

Deaths from Covid? Or just deaths?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281488/number-of-deaths-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

People die. Older people more likely to die. Water is wet. Film at eleven.

Posted an ONS report in the other thread about this too. deaths per 100K and age adjusted were higher in 2020 than any year after 2008... but lower than 2008 and earlier from what I could see.... so seems like we have had a bit of a lull in deaths these past few years. 

Agree with your point around what caused the death. Apparently less than 10K died from it without any comorbities ... but then again people could live quite well and long with things like diabetes or even HIV these days. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yadda yadda yadda
10 minutes ago, Adarmo said:

Certainly agree that the public are more tolerant about deaths.

So long as the hospitals don't appear to be overwhelmed and the vast majority of the dying are old.

If there is an upsurge in people dying from treatable cancers that will balance perception. Especially as these deaths will likely have a younger age profile. There will be more of a feeling that hospitals have to be open. I read that one of the members of the manufactured pop band Girls Aloud is dying of cancer because it was picked up late. When she dies that could focus opinion on this subject. Of course normal business in hospitals reduces capacity for covid. Could result in calls for lockdowns to reduce work load.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

apples
45 minutes ago, Adarmo said:

Posted an ONS report in the other thread about this too. deaths per 100K and age adjusted were higher in 2020 than any year after 2008... but lower than 2008 and earlier from what I could see.... so seems like we have had a bit of a lull in deaths these past few years. 

Agree with your point around what caused the death. Apparently less than 10K died from it without any comorbities ... but then again people could live quite well and long with things like diabetes or even HIV these days. 

Did Corona-chan sweep up the almost-dead that didn't die in 2008-onwards?

Or were 2020's excess deaths taken from those that now can't die again in 2021 or 2022?

Either way, I would be surprised by huge numbers of genuine "from" deaths "going forward". The really vulnerable have already been taken!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Adarmo
11 minutes ago, apples said:

Did Corona-chan sweep up the almost-dead that didn't die in 2008-onwards?

Or were 2020's excess deaths taken from those that now can't die again in 2021 or 2022?

Either way, I would be surprised by huge numbers of genuine "from" deaths "going forward". The really vulnerable have already been taken!

Yeah agreed. The un-dead dodging the coffin with flu jabs or umpteen pills for breakfast perhaps needed a little waft to take them down. 

As I've said before what I'm interested in is excess deaths rather than within 28 days of a test or whatnot. Same would apply for vaccine safety and the ramifications of reduced treatment of other treatable diseases like cancer, heart disease, hypertension... the works. 

One concern I have is that at some point some nastier variant comes along and has it's way with the younger cohort. I'm certainly feeling now like the vaccine is a belt and braces job for someone in their 30s but it's a whole waterfall of 'what ifs' on both sides.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Adarmo
43 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

So long as the hospitals don't appear to be overwhelmed and the vast majority of the dying are old.

If there is an upsurge in people dying from treatable cancers that will balance perception. Especially as these deaths will likely have a younger age profile. There will be more of a feeling that hospitals have to be open. I read that one of the members of the manufactured pop band Girls Aloud is dying of cancer because it was picked up late. When she dies that could focus opinion on this subject. Of course normal business in hospitals reduces capacity for covid. Could result in calls for lockdowns to reduce work load.

This was imho the only reason for the lockdown. If it just dropped people dead like a heart attack rather than clogging up ICUs I think it'd be very different. 

Certainly if the argument is convincing enough that the lockdown is responsible for this then there will be a lot of anger with the younger people. I'm surprised there isn't more already tbh.... I guess furlough, eviction ban etc probably kept enough of them happy for now. 

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ashestoashes

I think there will be a public tolerance for fat and unhealthy people to succumb to the plague as it's partly their own fault if due to an unhealthy lifestyle, of course I'm not talking about the disadvantaged here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stuey
27 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

I think there will be a public tolerance for fat and unhealthy people to succumb to the plague as it's partly their own fault if due to an unhealthy lifestyle, of course I'm not talking about the disadvantaged here.

We need Adequate BMI Passports.

Whoever's got the Hagsnet password at the moment needs to post this :Beer:

  • Lol 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Adarmo
2 hours ago, apples said:

Did Corona-chan sweep up the almost-dead that didn't die in 2008-onwards?

Or were 2020's excess deaths taken from those that now can't die again in 2021 or 2022?

Either way, I would be surprised by huge numbers of genuine "from" deaths "going forward". The really vulnerable have already been taken!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-56994326

We have a winner..... maybe

  • Informative 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...