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Late summer Third Wave & vaccinated individuals.


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WorkingPoor
Posted (edited)

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-third-uk-wave-could-occur-in-late-summer-if-reopening-continues-scientists-warn-12303671

So if you have had the vaccines you could still die in the late summer third wave? 

I wonder if this "third wave" is already "baked in" like the "new deadly variant" was that we all predicted. 

Edited by WorkingPoor
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Hold up, They don't stop you being a carrier They don't stop you transmitting it They don't stop you getting ill And now they don't stop you dying of it either Awesome sign me

Third wave?!! 😂😂 When are people going to wake up to this utter bullshit the whole thing is a massive scam and people need to stop playing along right now 

I see a theme here  

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Chewing Grass
24 minutes ago, WorkingPoor said:

imperfect vaccine efficacy

Interesting phrase, its an old one from 2001.

'We studied the potential impact of different types of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of pathogen virulence (induced host mortality) and the consequences for public health. Here we show that vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity diminish selection against virulent pathogens. The subsequent evolution leads to higher levels of intrinsic virulence and hence to more severe disease in unvaccinated individuals. This evolution can erode any population-wide benefits such that overall mortality rates are unaffected, or even increase, with the level of vaccination coverage. In contrast, infection-blocking vaccines induce no such effects, and can even select for lower virulence. These findings have policy implications for the development and use of vaccines that are not expected to provide full immunity.'

https://www.nature.com/articles/414751a

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fishman
1 minute ago, The Masked Tulip said:

The unjabbed will be blamed.

It doesn't matter what the problem is, the jab is the solution.

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Chewing Grass

They will be chasing the Covid tail forever, they over peddled the vaccine like a quack medicine seller from the Wild West.

With no chance of vaccinating the whole world and no sterilising one its virus evolution at 11,000 times the speed of human evolution.

Blaming the unvaccinated which is probably 95% of the world will only cut it in the short term in the UK unless they effectively ban all travel into the country.

The UK psyops team need to change their tack before the web of deceit blows up big style.

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LC1

Timely thread. If we are indeed looking at a probable third wave this autumn, when vulnerable people will all have had their 2 jabs, how bad can we expect it to be, and who will be "to blame" (ridiculous concept, imo)?

Mainstream view seems to be that it is the unvaccinated who are a "viral reservoir", circulating it around through their selfish social interactions (mostly younger people, workers etc), which will then lead to more vulnerable people being exposed. And even though the vaccines are excellent and everyone should get them, they will not work for everybody, so LOTS OF PEOPLE WILL DIE.

Problem with this view for me, apart from the obvious implication that unvaccinated people are acting selfishly, is that it assumes no level of immunity through exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in this younger fitter cohort of "filthy anti-vaxxers". What vaccine is better than natural immunity? But this notion is swept under the carpet in any scenario analysis.

The fringe "conspiracy theory" view is that SARS-CoV-2 is endemic and cannot be eradicated. Like flu, it will circulate forever with seasonal peaks. Mutations are inevitable. In unvaccinated people, mutations are likely to be random and inconsequential. But in a majority vaccinated population there is increased environmental pressure for a dominant mutation to occur that escapes vaccine efficacy. In this scenario it is possible that this variant will spread round the vaccinated like wildfire due to their identical spike antibody immunity and suppressed T-cell activity. Unvaccinated people, being typically younger and fitter and with broad immunity, particularly with cellular immunity to the coronavirus family, won't be too bothered. 

Problem with this view is that the science doesn't seem to be definitive, and so it is difficult to argue that any vaccine escape variant is because of an over-zealous vaccination campaign (the conspiracist view), rather than due to higher levels of viral replication and spread in unvaccinated people (the mainstream line).

So will we have a big third wave? If so, will it be vaccinated or unvaccinated people mainly, and who will be to blame?!

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dgul
1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

Interesting phrase, its an old one from 2001.

'We studied the potential impact of different types of imperfect vaccines on the evolution of pathogen virulence (induced host mortality) and the consequences for public health. Here we show that vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity diminish selection against virulent pathogens. The subsequent evolution leads to higher levels of intrinsic virulence and hence to more severe disease in unvaccinated individuals. This evolution can erode any population-wide benefits such that overall mortality rates are unaffected, or even increase, with the level of vaccination coverage. In contrast, infection-blocking vaccines induce no such effects, and can even select for lower virulence. These findings have policy implications for the development and use of vaccines that are not expected to provide full immunity.'

https://www.nature.com/articles/414751a

Yup.  That paper demonstrates the dangers of where we are going.

 

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dgul
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, LC1 said:

...

Problem with this view is that the science doesn't seem to be definitive, and so it is difficult to argue that any vaccine escape variant is because of an over-zealous vaccination campaign (the conspiracist view), rather than due to higher levels of viral replication and spread in unvaccinated people (the mainstream line).

...

Evolutionary microbiology says that there's no reason for a vaccine escape variant to develop and selectively-spread in/by the unvaccinated.  

The cause and blame lies entirely with those vaccinated with non-sterilising vaccines. 

Edited by dgul
Never apologise, never explain.
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ashestoashes
1 hour ago, WorkingPoor said:

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-third-uk-wave-could-occur-in-late-summer-if-reopening-continues-scientists-warn-12303671

So if you have had the vaccines you could still die in the late summer third wave? 

I wonder if this "third wave" is already "baked in" like the "new deadly variant" was that we all predicted. 

it'll be the unvaccinated who spread it though

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LC1
3 minutes ago, dgul said:

The cause and blame lies entirely with those vaccinated with non-sterilising vaccines. 

I can already hear the response to that...

Just now, ashestoashes said:

it'll be the unvaccinated who spread it though

 

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ashestoashes
1 minute ago, LC1 said:

I can already hear the response to that...

 

think I've heard the unvaccinated blamed several times in the news so far today

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dgul
11 minutes ago, LC1 said:

I can already hear the response to that...

  13 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

it'll be the unvaccinated who spread it though

 

 

Yes, to a certain extent.

But around half of them will get some mild but noticeable symptoms and now to self-isolate.

Around 90% of the vaccinated that become infected (possibly a greater proportion in the younger vaccinated) will become asymptomatic spreaders.

It is the vaccinated that will be spreading the new partial escape variants.

Even then, those at risk will be biased to the unvaccinated.  Hence they'll be able to say 'get vaccinated this summer, because covid is coming for you'.  But this will be a low risk (no greater than in the past, ie, not of great risk to the non-vulnerable) and seasonality will make it a weakish wave as well.

It is in the wave after (late autumn to winter) that we see the true impact of near-complete vaccine escape on the vaccinated population.  

If we're lucky we won't get enhanced disease in the vaccinated as well.

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ashestoashes
3 minutes ago, dgul said:

Yes, to a certain extent.

But around half of them will get some mild but noticeable symptoms and now to self-isolate.

Around 90% of the vaccinated that become infected (possibly a greater proportion in the younger vaccinated) will become asymptomatic spreaders.

It is the vaccinated that will be spreading the new partial escape variants.

Even then, those at risk will be biased to the unvaccinated.  Hence they'll be able to say 'get vaccinated this summer, because covid is coming for you'.  But this will be a low risk (no greater than in the past, ie, not of great risk to the non-vulnerable) and seasonality will make it a weakish wave as well.

It is in the wave after (late autumn to winter) that we see the true impact of near-complete vaccine escape on the vaccinated population.  

If we're lucky we won't get enhanced disease in the vaccinated as well.

but unvaccinated will be more at risk according to the posts above ?

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Bkkandrew
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

They will be chasing the Covid tail forever, they over peddled the vaccine like a quack medicine seller from the Wild West.

With no chance of vaccinating the whole world and no sterilising one its virus evolution at 11,000 times the speed of human evolution.

Blaming the unvaccinated which is probably 95% of the world will only cut it in the short term in the UK unless they effectively ban all travel into the country.

The UK psyops team need to change their tack before the web of deceit blows up big style.

Is this where the thread converges with the Gatwick Drones thread, where the police seem to have spent all their time chasing their own drones, creating hysteria, spending taxpayers money, imprisoning innocents and disrupting travel?

Edited by Bkkandrew
added innocents
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Chewing Grass
31 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

it'll be the unvaccinated who spread it though

Level 1 thinkers again, whipped into a hysteria by the click obsessed media and shallow virtue signallers.

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M S E Refugee
32 minutes ago, dgul said:

Yes, to a certain extent.

But around half of them will get some mild but noticeable symptoms and now to self-isolate.

Around 90% of the vaccinated that become infected (possibly a greater proportion in the younger vaccinated) will become asymptomatic spreaders.

It is the vaccinated that will be spreading the new partial escape variants.

Even then, those at risk will be biased to the unvaccinated.  Hence they'll be able to say 'get vaccinated this summer, because covid is coming for you'.  But this will be a low risk (no greater than in the past, ie, not of great risk to the non-vulnerable) and seasonality will make it a weakish wave as well.

It is in the wave after (late autumn to winter) that we see the true impact of near-complete vaccine escape on the vaccinated population.  

If we're lucky we won't get enhanced disease in the vaccinated as well.

What kind of mortality would we be looking at compared to today?

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JoeDavola

So if I'm understanding the above, getting vaccinated might be a plan not because of the covid that has shut the world down for the last year and a bit, but the new covid variant that the vaccine is helping create?

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Austin Allegro
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

They will be chasing the Covid tail forever, they over peddled the vaccine like a quack medicine seller from the Wild West.

With no chance of vaccinating the whole world and no sterilising one its virus evolution at 11,000 times the speed of human evolution.

Blaming the unvaccinated which is probably 95% of the world will only cut it in the short term in the UK unless they effectively ban all travel into the country.

The UK psyops team need to change their tack before the web of deceit blows up big style.

For months I've been thinking that all the nonsense about 'new variants' etc is background fear porn so that lockdown can either be continued indefinitely, or lifted for the summer and brought back in the autumn.

I'm actually wondering now whether it's a version of 'a big boy did it and ran away' - eg, HMG knows it has to come out of lockdown but fears that when the people realise the full horror of our devastated economy, governments still have something to pin the blame on.

Edited by Austin Allegro
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Popuplights
24 minutes ago, Austin Allegro said:

I'm actually wondering now whether it's a version of 'a big boy did it and ran away' - eg, HMG knows it has to come out of lockdown but fears that when the people realise the full horror of our devastated economy, governments still have something to pin the blame on.

They can't keep the economy shut down forever. So they have to cover their arses. We are at the arse covering stage.

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M S E Refugee
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

They can't keep the economy shut down forever. So they have to cover their arses. We are at the arse covering stage.

They are in a hole and they just can't stop digging.

Edited by M S E Refugee
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WorkingPoor

A little more clarity from no10 on the issue of vaccine efficacy:

 

Young people should not be prioritised for jab, Downing Street says

Local areas should not vaccinate young people earlier than planned to stem the spread of the variant of coronavirus which was first discovered in India, Downing Street says.

The prime minister's official spokesman says the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) believes the best way to protect against the new variant is to ensure vulnerable groups get their second dose.

The spokesman says thousands of additional jabs have been deployed in Bolton "so they can do this work of getting vaccinations to people".

It comes after London Mayor Sadiq Khan called for young people in areas with high numbers of cases of the Indian Covid variant to be given a jab sooner.

Downing Street also says concerns about the spread of the variant of coronavirus first identified in India are not confined to people unable or unwilling to take a vaccine but also to those who have had a jab but are still vulnerable.

In a worst-case scenario, where the variant is far more transmissible than the existing UK strain, there would be a situation where those for whom vaccine efficacy is reduced would be at risk of catching the virus, the spokesman says.

"That would then lead to increased hospitalisations and put unsustainable pressure on our NHS. That's the situation we are attempting to avoid here," he says.

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