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Property will not fall in value for at least 100 years(probably)


haroldshand
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haroldshand

You never know what's around the corner in life and you basically live your life with what is offered to you at the time and profit from whatever options are available at the time. Just one massive black swan  event though and that can change a way of life in a day, so having said that and with never knowing for certain and  without a crystal ball what's around the corner I am as certain as I can be that house prices will not fall in the next 100 years :)

The websites I looked at for the last several years that advocated "the great reset" especially  the likes of TOS that have called it so wrong for 20 years now, though some of the debates were brilliant they are no more than places where those who see the wrongs in life have somewhere to sound off and kept out of the way as the top 10% coin it in the real world, it's time to get into the 10% rather than screaming at the moon how unfair the world is :)

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leonardratso

hmm not saying its wrong or right, has been right for as long as i can remember, doesnt mean it always will be i suppose, but like you said you have 1 life of a certain span and its what happens in that or rather your choices in that span, that makes or breaks you.  Not to say you cant change your tack at some point, is that what you are getting at here?

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SpectrumFX

They've been kept up by massive intervention from the state. It's been apparent for some time that that intervention will continue until it provokes some sort of currency crisis. Where we're heading the nominal value of my house is the least of my worries.

 

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Frank Hovis

I dunno.

I think a real terms fall is inevitable owing to the high numbers of people who cannot afford to buy and more recently cannot afford to rent anything suitable.

When a market loses its buyers / renters that market starts to fall.

I have no idea when that will happen and if I was in a position to buy somewhere I liked then I would buy.

Nominal falls may not happen but that is only down to the clear evidence that successive governments and BoE governors have been happy to let inflation trash the currency and with Covid borrowing will be even more happy to do so now.

 

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haroldshand
2 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

They've been kept up by massive intervention from the state. It's been apparent for some time that that intervention will continue until it provokes some sort of currency crisis. Where we're heading the nominal value of my house is the least of my worries.

 

I think we have heard all the "why house prices must fall" cliches now starting from Roger Bootle all those years ago. I have heard so many good arguments as to why the market will crash over all these years, trouble is the governments and banks are not taking notes.

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SpectrumFX
12 minutes ago, haroldshand said:

I think we have heard all the "why house prices must fall" cliches now starting from Roger Bootle all those years ago. I have heard so many good arguments as to why the market will crash over all these years, trouble is the governments and banks are not taking notes.

Propping the shambolic mess up for another election cycle is always seen as the easy option.

Which brings to mind the old saying that in the longer term the hardest road is the easy road, taken every day.

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With a crooked smile

I don't think we will ever see prices stabalise at 4ish times single income again. I think dual incomes are baked in now. 

I disagree with the 100 years comment but agree with the sentiment. I think there will be a correction at some point caused by the gov being unable or unwilling to provide or continue to provide props to the market. 

Can't see this happening in the short term but could happen over next 20 years. I'm not intending to plan around what might happen ultimately you need to get on with life. 

 

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haroldshand
34 minutes ago, With a crooked smile said:

I don't think we will ever see prices stabalise at 4ish times single income again. I think dual incomes are baked in now. 

I disagree with the 100 years comment but agree with the sentiment. I think there will be a correction at some point caused by the gov being unable or unwilling to provide or continue to provide props to the market. 

Can't see this happening in the short term but could happen over next 20 years. I'm not intending to plan around what might happen ultimately you need to get on with life. 

 

I see some serious nasty  civil unrest in the UK long before any kind housing correction revolution, and it won't be from the usual woke liberal left types. And then maybe we might start getting a few major problems with the UK sorted, housing being just one of smaller issues.

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Frank Hovis
9 hours ago, haroldshand said:

I see some serious nasty  civil unrest in the UK long before any kind housing correction revolution, and it won't be from the usual woke liberal left types. And then maybe we might start getting a few major problems with the UK sorted, housing being just one of smaller issues.

Careful what you wish for.

House prices will be an irrelevance if we have anything approaching civil war.

Down in Somerset we had the Monmouth rebellion and the Battle if Sedgemoor.

Thin fare by civil war standards but it devastated society in the area.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monmouth_Rebellion

I think it, as in civil war, is inevitable but will be horrific.  I would however place it decades hence meaning maybe sixty years' time.

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With a crooked smile
1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

I think it, as in civil war, is inevitable

I think full blown civil war like in former Yugoslavia unlikely. Rioting, civil disobedience and possibly some homegrown terrorism yes. 

I suspect when it starts kicking off at the above level whoever is in charge will have to start making major changes. 

Given how hard it is to get away with a big crime now due to DNA, tracking and surveillance I'm not sure how likely /easy it will be for people are to be able to mobilise and resist in the future. 

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If they manage to crash fiat money which seems to be the plan.. 

My house will be 100 billion pounds. I want it in cash so I never run out of something to burn.. 

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With a crooked smile

@Frank HovisI thought about this some more. I never would have predicted that the country would be completely shut down and a Conservative government would be paying peoples wages so maybe total war isn't off the table. 

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Castlevania
On 22/05/2021 at 08:27, haroldshand said:

You never know what's around the corner in life and you basically live your life with what is offered to you at the time and profit from whatever options are available at the time. Just one massive black swan  event though and that can change a way of life in a day, so having said that and with never knowing for certain and  without a crystal ball what's around the corner I am as certain as I can be that house prices will not fall in the next 100 years :)

The websites I looked at for the last several years that advocated "the great reset" especially  the likes of TOS that have called it so wrong for 20 years now, though some of the debates were brilliant they are no more than places where those who see the wrongs in life have somewhere to sound off and kept out of the way as the top 10% coin it in the real world, it's time to get into the 10% rather than screaming at the moon how unfair the world is :)

I agree. Life’s too short to get angry at the system. Learn the rules and work out the optimal strategy to play the game.

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1 hour ago, With a crooked smile said:

I think full blown civil war like in former Yugoslavia unlikely. Rioting, civil disobedience and possibly some homegrown terrorism yes. 

I suspect when it starts kicking off at the above level whoever is in charge will have to start making major changes. 

Given how hard it is to get away with a big crime now due to DNA, tracking and surveillance I'm not sure how likely /easy it will be for people are to be able to mobilise and resist in the future. 

It started in Swansea yesterday didn't it? They announced it beforehand on facebook/insta and have all used their real names. How come the jokes were always about the Irish and not the Welsh?

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