Big Kahuna Poll

[HousePriceMania]

Are we about to see the BK ?

 

 

[planit]

Question is a bit unfair, still 6 months left of the year,

"are we about to see" I read as within a couple of months.

But then "in 2021" gives a much longer timescale.

 

I answered no as I think there is more chance for it in 2022.

I am trying to do a 2021 roadmap at the moment, it's pretty depressing as we seem to be storing/delaying/magnifying problems for the future.

[King Penda]

There might be a dip but I don’t see a crash they could even rise if wages go up a lot 

[sancho panza]

39 minutes ago, planit said:

Question is a bit unfair, still 6 months left of the year,

"are we about to see" I read as within a couple of months.

But then "in 2021" gives a much longer timescale.

 

I answered no as I think there is more chance for it in 2022.

I am trying to do a 2021 roadmap at the moment, it's pretty depressing as we seem to be storing/delaying/magnifying problems for the future.

I'd agree,there's a few more things need to fall into line first.I could be wrong but I'm not shorting yet.

[Bricormortis]

I think not 2021 personally, but what do I know.

However, this guy who I have respect for....

Chris Vermuelen ( Multi millionaire technical analyst ) sees a LOT of risk at 4400 on s and p 500, but is still currently in equitys, watching the signals closely. He thinks a 25% drop MAY take place around that point, blithers on about Gann Cycles Elliot waves and Fibbonaci making my eyes glaze over a bit, its over my head. ( I today recieved it in an email circular from him / his office, I suspect it to be a couple of weeks old, but if he is still circulating it, presumably he is still standing by it. 

I posted a link to it on Credit Deflation thread  when I cme across it in a Howe street article yesterday. Worth a read.

Excerpt below.

"Please note that we are not trying to pick a top or suggest traders jump into short positions because of our research.  We are suggesting that traders pay very close attention to how the markets react after the S&P500 reaches near the $4400 level as we believe price levels may stall and begin to roll downward – possibly starting a bigger reversion event from this peak level."

 

 

[planit]

I think we would all agree that everything is on a knife edge and the risk of falls are high. 

If things slot into place more quickly and we get a run up by October  it can happen this year.

But I can't see the dominoes lining up at the same time and everyone seems to be calling for a fall at the moment, this doesn't conform to conventional behaviour in a top.

 

I would go 100% cash but I have a crazy feeling that we haven't seen anything yet. If I sell out now the markets will go to the moon 

[PatronizingGit]

Gas  $4 a gallon plus 5% rates was what really fucked the US in 2008 IMO.

 

Probably take gas at $5 a gallon & rates at 2% now. 

[MrXxxx]

Q1/2 of 2022.

[Frank Hovis]

As someone who has been predicting it as being imminent since 2008 though with less confidence every year I long ago gave up on any kind of economic reality reasserting itself.

I think steady inflation over the next twenty years will imperceptibly erode the value of all state currencies and that this will serve to hugely cushion any nominal falls in property or whatever.

There will be no "Big Kahuna"; not this year not for decades.

It is wishful thinking by those holding crypto or PMs which they have bought because they see a collapse as imminent; or by those wanting to buy a decent house on the cheap.

I just can't see it.

And I don't think that watching those US videos that take it happening soon as a given and use that as a jumping off point are helpful for clear thinking on this.

Their videos are like "objective" UFO / alien videos which begin "We all know that aliens exist..".

[goldbug9999]

10 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

There will be no "Big Kahuna"; not this year not for decades.

It is wishful thinking by those holding crypto or PMs

I understand "big kahuna" to mean a deflationary bust so why would those holding inflation hedges wish for such a thing ?.

I agree though, there will be no reversion until there is monetary tightening i.e. never.

[M S E Refugee]

The BK will come this Autumn/Winter if the Vaccines turn out to be useless.

[HousePriceMania]

FTSE down 2% today

Vaccines clearly dont work

Full lockdown coming at the end of the summer.

Big Kahuna anyone ?

[planit]

I warned about this wave twice, about 10 days ago and about a month ago.*

We are within the expectation of how this was meant to behave, including with the vaccine. Loads of testing is now done which increases the numbers of positive cases.

 London was one of the first places to get this variant but even though the vaccine rate is one of the lowest in the country (I think 55% of adults fully vaccinated) it is not too bad here. I assume that is because so many people were affected in the first wave.

Good news is that the faster it goes up, the faster it will come down. This will be over quickly but everyone might panic in the next week.

 

* I am a complete idiot, even though I got worried, posted and sold out 30% of my portfolio, I bought back in last week complete FOMO meltdown. I should have known better and will punish myself. 

 

[HousePriceMania]

54 minutes ago, planit said:

I warned about this wave twice, about 10 days ago and about a month ago.*

We are within the expectation of how this was meant to behave, including with the vaccine. Loads of testing is now done which increases the numbers of positive cases.

 London was one of the first places to get this variant but even though the vaccine rate is one of the lowest in the country (I think 55% of adults fully vaccinated) it is not too bad here. I assume that is because so many people were affected in the first wave.

Good news is that the faster it goes up, the faster it will come down. This will be over quickly but everyone might panic in the next week.

 

* I am a complete idiot, even though I got worried, posted and sold out 30% of my portfolio, I bought back in last week complete FOMO meltdown. I should have known better and will punish myself. 

 

Easily done.  I have to keep telling myself, I sold up in May for a reason.  It's a 12 mouth plan but I nearly cracked last 2 weeks.

It's a matter of when not if I buy back in, the bigger the Kahuna the more money I am prepared to put in.

[spunko]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

FTSE down 2% today

Vaccines clearly dont work

Full lockdown coming at the end of the summer.

Big Kahuna anyone ?

The Big Kahuna didn't happen in the last 2 lockdowns, quite the opposite sadly.  The housing market is independent of most "catastrophic" events clearly, even black swans like a global pandemic. As is the FTSE nowadays it seems.

The popularity of furlough scheme, lauded still by supposed financial experts, shows that at the first sign of trouble the government can step in.

The only thing that will stop the government stepping is now is when they cannot possibly step in, i.e. they're bust.

So the question is, when will the kitty be truly empty and cannot be jumpstarted a few more times? I'm hoping 2022-2023.

[Green Devil]

7 minutes ago, spunko said:

The Big Kahuna didn't happen in the last 2 lockdowns, quite the opposite sadly.  The housing market is independent of most "catastrophic" events clearly, even black swans like a global pandemic. As is the FTSE nowadays it seems.

The popularity of furlough scheme, lauded still by supposed financial experts, shows that at the first sign of trouble the government can step in.

The only thing that will stop the government stepping is now is when they cannot possibly step in, i.e. they're bust.

So the question is, when will the kitty be truly empty and cannot be jumpstarted a few more times? I'm hoping 2022-2023.

You can always step in when you have an unlimited money printer. You can never lose. Bust doesnt mean debt to the governments. Bust only happens to those WITHOUT facility to print money.

[sancho panza]

On 09/07/2021 at 23:42, goldbug9999 said:

I understand "big kahuna" to mean a deflationary bust so why would those holding inflation hedges wish for such a thing ?.

I agree though, there will be no reversion until there is monetary tightening i.e. never.

Jsut because credit deflates it doesn't mean prices of certain commodities will necessarily deflate.Some shares went up through the bsuts of 00 and 08,rare but it does happen.

Some shares barely pulled back at all,some got mullered 90%++

57 minutes ago, spunko said:

The popularity of furlough scheme, lauded still by supposed financial experts, shows that at the first sign of trouble the government can step in.

The only thing that will stop the government stepping is now is when they cannot possibly step in, i.e. they're bust.

So the question is, when will the kitty be truly empty and cannot be jumpstarted a few more times? I'm hoping 2022-2023.

Thats the key right there.When the currency is trashed and infaltion is runnign they won't be able to step in,or if they do,then the outcome will be worse than if they don't.

Expereicne has taughts us over the last twelve years they will fight deflation with everythign but then they have to because the banking system is so levereaged.

[reformed nice guy]

They seem to be running out of options so maybe we will see more unfounded bungs to keep people spending like the extra £20 given for benefits 'just coz'.

Grants for left handed adaptions?

On a sinister note it pushes the cbdc agenda with temptations such as time limited currency...

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

The popularity of furlough scheme, lauded still by supposed financial experts, shows that at the first sign of trouble the government can step in.

The only thing that will stop the government stepping is now is when they cannot possibly step in, i.e. they're bust.

So the question is, when will the kitty be truly empty and cannot be jumpstarted a few more times? I'm hoping 2022-2023.

December 2021 when these numbers are updated (in January).

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

December 2021 when these numbers are updated (in January).

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp

Argentina	102	90.2	Dec/20	%
Republic of the Congo	102	83.32	Dec/20	%
Euro Area	98	83.9	Dec/20	%
United Kingdom	97.4	84.4	Dec/20	%

 

[leonardratso]

ive got a big kahuna pole

[HousePriceMania]

Time to resurrect this ? 

[nirvana]

12 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Time to resurrect this ? 

really depends what your definition of a BK is?

ask yourself, is today a Black Monday? 

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, nirvana said:

really depends what your definition of a BK is?

ask yourself, is today a Black Monday? 

Not yet....

It's the FED tapering tomorrow that will be the big news.

 

[TNS]

one thing you can guarantee, house prices will be unaffected. That is the be all and end all Count.