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NI Covid Stats - what do these numbers mean to you?


JoeDavola
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See below. It's not looking great, given how many are jabbed but I guess others would say:

- the numbers are up because the lockdown ended and people are mixing more

- delta variant

- and of course it's all the dirty unvaxxinated people's fault, this isn't gonna work unless practically everyone gets the vaccine

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/uploads/monthly_2021_09/image.png.5d0207ab4142d4ca084cb5bc5ba5b9e7.png

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belfastchild

As an experiment, try getting a hotel booking during halloween week from a local hotel. Ring them, not online. See what they say...

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4 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

As an experiment, try getting a hotel booking during halloween week from a local hotel. Ring them, not online. See what they say...

As in everywhere will be booked up?

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6 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Possibly booked up. Certainly not available...

Or are you saying that there might be another lockdown coming around haloween?

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belfastchild
2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Or are you saying that there might be another lockdown coming around haloween?

Circuit breaker, Joe, circuit breaker. Lockdowns are so last year.
Could just be coincidence mind you...

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12 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Circuit breaker, Joe, circuit breaker. Lockdowns are so last year.
Could just be coincidence mind you...

Funny you mention it I had a chat today with a bloke who runs a gym and he’d heard rumours of a circuit breaker.

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King Penda
4 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Funny you mention it I had a chat today with a bloke who runs a gym and he’d heard rumours of a circuit breaker.

Hope not I’ve just booked up to go on a dinosaur walk Newark way think it’s at a stately home

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My current hypothesis is that vaccination increases the probability of someone becoming a superspreader. 

These superspreaders are increasing case load significantly, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

The SIR model (Imperial college) needs lots of infected to create more infected (and we don't see this in the vaccinated), but the superspreader model doesn't -- we could have a significant increase in 'Typhoid Mary' numbers without seeing the vaccinated as being a particular driver of the higher case numbers. 

[This would be due to the vaccines suppressing innate and possibly cellular immune systems in the lungs, allowing covid to reach high viral loads.  Also, a suppressed immune system would result in no or few symptoms.    But, the antibody protection in the body as a whole would protect the individual from actually getting a body-wide infection, resulting in serious covid.]

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

My current hypothesis is that vaccination increases the probability of someone becoming a superspreader. 

These superspreaders are increasing case load significantly, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated.

The SIR model (Imperial college) needs lots of infected to create more infected (and we don't see this in the vaccinated), but the superspreader model doesn't -- we could have a significant increase in 'Typhoid Mary' numbers without seeing the vaccinated as being a particular driver of the higher case numbers. 

[This would be due to the vaccines suppressing innate and possibly cellular immune systems in the lungs, allowing covid to reach high viral loads.  Also, a suppressed immune system would result in no or few symptoms.    But, the antibody protection in the body as a whole would protect the individual from actually getting a body-wide infection, resulting in serious covid.]

so for the time being at least all looking ok?  Vaccinated may be carrying high payload and passing it about to both other vaccinated and unvaccinated.  The latter have a fair chance at least (on average) of having been exposed already so should(?) have a fairly robust immunity/ naturally developed.  And most of the vulnerable shot up. 

But still cases may go through the roof with the unvaccinated and unexposed being at particular risk, especially with more likely first infection coming with a high viral load.  But whilst the vaccinated are spreading and harboring lots of virus it may look like the unvaccinated are being harmed the most.  Well the vaccinated don't seem to get much "immunity" full stop these days be it 1 month or 6 months - I guess the million dollar question is are they more likely do keep getting repeat infections.

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6 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

so for the time being at least all looking ok?  Vaccinated may be carrying high payload and passing it about to both other vaccinated and unvaccinated.  The latter have a fair chance at least (on average) of having been exposed already so should(?) have a fairly robust immunity/ naturally developed.  And most of the vulnerable shot up. 

But still cases may go through the roof with the unvaccinated and unexposed being at particular risk, especially with more likely first infection coming with a high viral load.  But whilst the vaccinated are spreading and harboring lots of virus it may look like the unvaccinated are being harmed the most.  Well the vaccinated don't seem to get much "immunity" full stop these days be it 1 month or 6 months - I guess the million dollar question is are they more likely do keep getting repeat infections.

Currently things are under control because it is summer.  It'll get worse in winter.

I'd assume that by the next wave the vaccine escape will be near complete and the problems will be seen in vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.

But I do think that the increased risk of the vaccinated becoming a superspreader will remain, so we'll have a fewfold times more cases than we'd have had if we'd only vaccinated the most very vulnerable.

And you're right -- there is an open question regarding how robust the immune response is to a vaccination having a real covid infection -- info to date suggests 'not as good', but it isn't a done deal yet.

But it might be that covid has run out of steam -- we'll should see by Nov-Dec.

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11 minutes ago, dgul said:

Currently things are under control because it is summer.  It'll get worse in winter.

I'd assume that by the next wave the vaccine escape will be near complete and the problems will be seen in vaccinated and unvaccinated alike.

But I do think that the increased risk of the vaccinated becoming a superspreader will remain, so we'll have a fewfold times more cases than we'd have had if we'd only vaccinated the most very vulnerable.

And you're right -- there is an open question regarding how robust the immune response is to a vaccination having a real covid infection -- info to date suggests 'not as good', but it isn't a done deal yet.

But it might be that covid has run out of steam -- we'll should see by Nov-Dec.

cheers, I would have thought it must be running out of steam.  It's been a couple of years now and despite the media it's not been a bloodbath really one bit.  Except danger being vaccination is prolonging.

Hopefully the vaccinated are still able to build a solid natural immunity when they catch post-jab....not sure if unfounded but my concern is they don't and it basically keeps infecting and reinfecting.

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Hail the Tripod
On 22/09/2021 at 18:20, dgul said:

significant increase in 'Typhoid Mary' numbers

Interesting fact about Mary Mallon, the so called “Typhoid Mary”:

Quote

Mallon herself never believed that she was a carrier. With the help of a friend, she sent several samples to an independent New York laboratory. All came back negative for typhoid.

 

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14 minutes ago, Hail the Tripod said:

Interesting fact about Mary Mallon, the so called “Typhoid Mary”:

These days they'd just increase the cycles until they did find it.

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