Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[planit]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Does EdF have a monopoly within France? I expect the gas business is a state owned monopoly too. They'll just have to push taxes up instead.

Same as China is doing then. Subsidise the prices of energy.

We are going down the popular 'powercut' route as developed in California

[Animal Spirits]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/denmark-cuts-key-rate-to-minus-0-6-to-defend-its-currency-peg

Denmark Cuts Key Rate to Minus 0.6% to Defend Currency Peg

If anyone can explain this to me I'd be grateful?

 
I wonder if the BoE will quickly peg to something and use it as an excuse to lower IRS.

To remain "competitive" vs other EU exporters and countries. The banks trading desk may sell Kroner and buy Euros in FX markets to maintain the desired peg or range.

Some countries still implement negative nominal rates even though the observations to date show the policy hasn't created sustained growth (as in rates and LT bonds would reflect the upward trajectory in the economy). Long term bond prices are bid up at auction by bidders (including the CB's to some extent) hence the negative yields due to demand for the instruments.

All it indicates is low growth potential and financial repression; slowly destroying the banks profitiability and taxing savings:

Other currencies peg like the Yuan and HKD are pegged to USD for example. With China's large trade surplus, their currency would rise in value reducing competitiveness with other exporters so the PBOC intervenes; its a form of mercantilism.

I doubt the BOE is in a hurry to peg to anything after having their pants pulled down by Soros et al on Black Wednesday in 1992.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

As a bit of anecdotal, I’ve been monitoring prices on my 2015 24k mile Peugeot 308 I bought at the beginning of the year. Similar models/specs are now asking 20-25% more.

Now has a second hand run-of-the-mill average family car actually gone up in value in a year and performing better than some of my shares?

Or is it that money has been devaluing at a far more rapid rate than the actual inflation rates suggest?

I’m thinking the latter.

 

Shortage of semiconductors has hit new car availability so the second hand market is soaring. Main dealers are now having to sell from stock just so they sell something.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

I'm 200 quid up.  LOL.

No, you are only 200 quid up if you sell now....and likewise if it drops 300 tomorrow you won't be down 300 quid unless you sell :-).....unless of course it goes bankrupt!

[leonardratso]

On 29/09/2021 at 16:08, leonardratso said:

shit yeah, im +150% up on THG, when they first appeared after they were split from BHP? was it? i read an article saying they were worthless, so i bought a load more on the back of that professional traders advice....hahahhaa stupid bastard.

sorry, i meant TGA not THG, durr.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Just spoke to mate that buys and sells energy and he said its on that much of a knife edge it'll only take a couple of windless days and it'll be panic stations. 

 

Hard to overstate how badly we've been governed over the last 25 years to reach the stage where we're looking at wind forecasts to see if we can keep the lights on. 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just spoke to mate that buys and sells energy and he said its on that much of a knife edge it'll only take a couple of windless days and it'll be panic stations. 

 

Hard to overstate how badly we've been governed over the last 25 years to reach the stage where we're looking at wind forecasts to see if we can keep the lights on. 

We're going to build back better by doing more of the same, and everything will be OK.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just spoke to mate that buys and sells energy and he said its on that much of a knife edge it'll only take a couple of windless days and it'll be panic stations. 

 

Hard to overstate how badly we've been governed over the last 25 years to reach the stage where we're looking at wind forecasts to see if we can keep the lights on. 

If you scroll down this page (https://gridwatch.co.uk/?oldgw=) and look at the graphs you can see a few things. Firstly we have had a lot of wind power this week. We ought to be filling up the little storage we have. Secondly you can see how much more energy and especially gas we used this spring and early summer compared to last year. The other thing that is obvious is that electricity use is already seasonal. Two points from that. We're going to be in trouble if we have a windless week this winter. Also switching to electric-based heating will increase that seasonality. That means even more spare capacity is required. It is really dumb to try encourage this without a plan in place for that power.

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If you scroll down this page (https://gridwatch.co.uk/?oldgw=) and look at the graphs you can see a few things. Firstly we have had a lot of wind power this week. We ought to be filling up the little storage we have. Secondly you can see how much more energy and especially gas we used this spring and early summer compared to last year. The other thing that is obvious is that electricity use is already seasonal. Two points from that. We're going to be in trouble if we have a windless week this winter. Also switching to electric-based heating will increase that seasonality. That means even more spare capacity is required. It is really dumb to try encourage this without a plan in place for that power.

I hope we get a lovely high pressure cell with displaced cold from the Arctic for weeks.  I want these idiots and those that parrot them to be accountable.  I want people to get pissed off.  

Watching them spin the warmer Arctic (Due to displaced cold from a wobbly meridional jetstream due to magnetic pole wander) as muh global warming while everyone shivers and feeds £50 into the meter will be delicious. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

I hope we get a lovely high pressure cell with displaced cold from the Arctic for weeks.  I want these idiots and those that parrot them to be accountable.  I want people to get pissed off.  

Watching them spin the warmer Arctic (Due to displaced cold from a wobbly meridional jetstream due to magnetic pole wander) as muh global warming while everyone shivers and feeds £50 into the meter will be delicious. 

Is the jet stream affected by the magnetic pole? Never looked into that, although I know the jet stream is to blame for our weather whether good or bad. 

[nirvana]

hello Dave, DAVE! make the market go up BRO, you promised us...

 

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is the jet stream affected by the magnetic pole? Never looked into that, although I know the jet stream is to blame for our weather whether good or bad. 

Depends who you're asking - I agree with the people who say yes, the MSM says no it's all CO2. 

(Although that article mentions solar activity, we're just leaving a solar minimum) I'll have to try and find the jetstream one.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, nirvana said:

hello Dave, DAVE! make the market go up BRO, you promised us...

 

 

[sancho panza]

9 hours ago, JMD said:

I agree 100% with what you say.

But alongside my pm miners, i also have a 'physical silver' etf strategy - where i will attempt to play the GSR, and so 'pivot across' from my 100/1 (personal buy point) silver gsr, to say 33/1 (personal average sell point) silver gsr, if/when it ever gets to those lower ratios.

I set this trade up couple years back, so not sure if this strategy is that relevant/possible to do today, as the gsr is not as high now. 

 

Nice to see someon else using the GSR as a sell tool.

Goldies had a run today,but have been battered of late.Given how deep in the red real rates are that surprised me but the hopium is strong in New York and quarter point there offsets 1%of CPI......go figure.

Would be interested to know if the hive mind has a viable explanation for their underperformance?

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Denmark Cuts Key Rate to Minus 0.6% to Defend Currency Peg

If anyone can explain this to me I'd be grateful?

 

Things are about to get really expensive for Danish taxpayers.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Final thought from my mate to send us all off to sleep with happy thoughts. 

 

See you all in the frozen wasteland boys. 🥶

[Transistor Man]

8 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Final thought from my mate to send us all off to sleep with happy thoughts. 

 

See you all in the frozen wasteland boys. 🥶

Messing up the New Build programme has turned out to be a disaster. 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just spoke to mate that buys and sells energy and he said its on that much of a knife edge it'll only take a couple of windless days and it'll be panic stations. 

Hard to overstate how badly we've been governed over the last 25 years to reach the stage where we're looking at wind forecasts to see if we can keep the lights on. 

Its autumn/winter you can guarantee shite weather for the next .... 11 months.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2645425

1 hour ago, Loki said:

We're going to build back better by doing more of the same, and everything will be OK.

Out of all the platitudes the Blarite cunts of the last 24 years have come up with "build back better" has to be the most empty and meaningless, and my word there has been endless pathetic phrases similar to this.

Especially as since its came into fruition they've destroyed society.

[sleepwello'nights]

Just had an email from our electricity supplier. Ceased trading and we will be transferred to a new supplier in a few days!. Had a quick look on switching sites and looks as if our tariff will double in price!

All the cash I'm holding for the BK might have to be used for food and power. Ah well. 

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Especially as since its came into fruition they've destroyed society.

Which is why they're the ideal candidates to do the rebuilding betterer 

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Which is why they're the ideal candidates to do the rebuilding betterer 

Not when they're so much better at being useless. I just can't watch any of them for as long as 1 second when i'm flicking through the channels. 

 

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Just had an email from our electricity supplier. Ceased trading and we will be transferred to a new supplier in a few days!. Had a quick look on switching sites and looks as if our tariff will double in price!

All the cash I'm holding for the BK might have to be used for food and power. Ah well. 

If i was retired i'd be looking at a few months in the Canary Islands to enjoy life and watch Britain implode this winter.

Be cheap as chips to stay there i'd imagine.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Out of all the platitudes the Blarite cunts of the last 24 years have come up with "build back better" has to be the most empty and meaningless, and my word there has been endless pathetic phrases similar to this.

It has loads of meaning. "Build a system to track, control and exploit".

[leonardratso]

they cant build shit, what did any govt ever leave since the late 80s that had any lasting beneficial effect to the country?

smart fucking motorways, HS2?, maybe a benefits system thats better paid than a job?

Useless fuckers.

[jamtomorrow]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

they cant build shit, what did any govt ever leave since the late 80s that had any lasting beneficial effect to the country?

smart fucking motorways, HS2?, maybe a benefits system thats better paid than a job?

Useless fuckers.

It's worse than that - we've actively consumed the capital base of our economies. Economic autophagy.

Is it *just* the disinflation effects? Or something worse?

One of my favourite Bitcoin maxis wrote a long-form on it. Well worth a read, even for crypto snowflakes: https://allenfarrington.medium.com/the-capital-strip-mine-ec627e9fe40a

The Capital Strip Mine

Leverage, Knowledge, and the Uncapitalizing of America

[jamtomorrow]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

If i was retired i'd be looking at a few months in the Canary Islands to enjoy life and watch Britain implode this winter.

Be cheap as chips to stay there i'd imagine.

https://english.elpais.com/spain/2021-09-24/volcano-tourists-cause-congestion-on-la-palma-with-plane-tickets-going-for-as-much-as-500.html