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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I knew I held on to them for a reason!

Harland & Wolff Set to Receive Marine License for Gas Project, Shares Rise - MarketWatch

Up 14% this morning! I've never been so happy about being slightly less in the red!

Up 25% in a day, yet in my ISA im still down by 45%!

Good news though, can see it getting that 45% back in the coming months.

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Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

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2 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Any bruce Springsteen fans in the house? 

 

"Im going down, down, down........." 

BP pulling funding from Pure Energy say they dont see gas prices coming down anytime soon so the company would remain loss making.

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25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

SP, was that Wealthion video post, i sent (p38 of thread) any good? I sent it in response to your post from a couple weeks back, when i think you were asking about potential silvies... Wealthion were mainly discussing developers/explorers so maybe not what you were looking for. Anyway i'm very cautious, but one under discussion/analysis - a developer: Southern Silver - did look interesting to me. 

 

 

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59 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

Even the Mighty Panther is up!

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Goldies on a tear.Anglo gold $15 to $19 in two weeks.

Presuming it's this unless anyone knows otherwise.Wonder what happened to the yellow stuff after 08?

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-prices-outpace-forecast-as-inflation-dogs-economy-2642533

(Bloomberg) -- Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose in September by more than forecast, resuming a faster pace of growth and underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures in the economy.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% from August, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. Compared with a year ago, the CPI rose 5.4%, matching the largest annual gain since 2008. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, so-called core inflation rose 0.2% from the prior month.

image.thumb.png.27925c6ae5c043968142e30c189f799c.png

Long may it continue. Still quite down from June highs but a good Sling up in the last few days. 

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8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

As @sancho panza said, we are a recovered aviation sector or cold winter away from a panic.

Hunter has said a few times he expects airlines to recover from here, but will the share price be in any way related to air travel?

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JimmyTheBruce
10 hours ago, Gin said:

What is almost a leisure activity for some of renovating houses to flip has all but ended . I hope life is going back to basics. Do that which is needed and not what is wanted . Make a home warm if possible , move to a bigger one only if really needed , replace the 20 year old boiler .(with what is questionable now though) Maybe decorate every ten years but all the fancy shit will end .

Surely HPI showing rises has been stopped dead in its tracks the present boom based on so few house sales is the last gasp.

The remote controlled blinds around the conservatory will mostly be confined to history and Alexa can fuck off too. Well I can dream..:)

Does this mean I have to return my smart bulbs or be excommunicated!?

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https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/glencore-backed-u-k-gas-shipper-cng-is-exiting-wholesale-market

Quote

CNG chief executive officer Paul Stanley said “the company has been forced into an impossible position” after many of its utility customers ceased trading during the energy crisis. CNG still has about 18 utility customers on its books who will now need to seek alternative sources of gas, he said.

Glencore has been a minority shareholder since 2019 and has provided “substantial financial support to CNG through challenging market conditions,” a company spokesperson said. Glencore is “engaging with the regulator” on finding a solution.

Big wholesaler just pulled out of supplying gas to 18 UK utility companies, they will have to find the gas somewhere else now.  I did say (5th!) that there was going to come a point when the people who are hedging on the other side to the utility companies would decide the better course of action is to pull the plug rather than subsidising consumers for ridiculously overpriced gas.

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24 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/glencore-backed-u-k-gas-shipper-cng-is-exiting-wholesale-market

Big wholesaler just pulled out of supplying gas to 18 UK utility companies, they will have to find the gas somewhere else now.  I did say (5th!) that there was going to come a point when the people who are hedging on the other side to the utility companies would decide the better course of action is to pull the plug rather than subsidising consumers for ridiculously overpriced gas.

Does this massively increase the chances of electricity generation interruption? 

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Democorruptcy
On 12/10/2021 at 19:06, sancho panza said:

#herecomesthebankingcrisis

the debate will flow down in the property crash thread but a heads up here if one hasn't been given already.June data has been released at RM and the liquidity has dried up.Price spiking higher on lower volume(no flats sold at all and only 7 terraces in a a psotcode with 40,000 hosueholds,7 detached sales explains the price action......

In normal times,probably 70-75% of registrations would be done by the three month mark.Even if they double June's(unlikely given lockdown ended in July) then they're 50% down on last year.

Simply incredible price/sales data.Dow theorists would have a field day if this holds up with next months update

I can see lower volume leading to an estate agent crisis because they depend on commission from sales, not sure why it would lead to a banking crisis. Lower volumes protect the prices of their assets.

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I think the lower volume on houses at the moment is due to lack of supply so people darent sell in case they cant find anything.Around here if you were selling a terrace and looking to buy a 3 bed semi there were always plenty to choose from,a normal market.Now if a 3 bed semi comes up it sells in a few hours or days.There is massive risk in selling and not getting anything.We still have a huge problem of southern bennie claims moving here and landlords buying up houses to rent to them,working first time buyers etc funding those bennies to price them out etc.

I think housing will turn from BTL pain,not owner occupier.It needs welfare freezes on rent,social housing building on a massive scale to cut the rents under the BTL and higher rates.We will get the higher rates,so it then we might start to see some BTL sell up.

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14 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.cityam.com/crypto-regulation-must-be-pursued-urgently-says-bank-of-england/

 

Bank of England: Crypto regulation must be pursued as 'matter of urgency'

Was a matter of time IMHO.

The reality is...

 

The poor : Bank of England regulation must be pursued as 'matter of urgency'

 

I'm still estimating 2023 for when the adoption curve puts this out of BoE's hands, so maybe BoE have now come to the same conclusion. 2022 should be "interesting".

The macro mistake being made by the economic and monetary establishment with Bitcoin in particular (in case it isn't obvious from BoE's mounting panic) is to treat it only as an asset class, and ignore the engine of technology adoption that is also driving the price.

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8 hours ago, Loki said:

Does this massively increase the chances of electricity generation interruption? 

I think the govt will keep the lights on and let domestic gas supply stop for a bit if it has to.  Mainly because gas boilers don't work without leccy....

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geordie_lurch

I don't want to scare monger and take the thread off topic but the biggest macro event of our lifetimes is probably taking place now and will probably only get worse this winter. Who knows who might even be around in 12 months time to keep the power stations going :ph34r:

https://www.rintrah.nl/too-many-people-are-dying-and-its-starting-to-worry-the-demographers/

(Credit @wherebee for the above in the pandemic thread here and @norfolkhorn for the following)

For those on Twitter their is some similar Scottish data...

 

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12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

I think the govt will keep the lights on and let domestic gas supply stop for a bit if it has to.  Mainly because gas boilers don't work without leccy....

One for the gas experts on the forum, but ... isn't a gas network shutdown/restart a nightmare compared to leccy?

Vaguely recall something about having to go door to door and check every consumer before repressurising because of the risk of an appliance not having shut off properly. There might even be something at the consumer inlet that needs resetting after loss of pressure?

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Democorruptcy

Pension changes proposed:

Quote

 

Ministers are looking to relax rules shielding tens of millions of UK retirement savers from high charges as they step up efforts to funnel pension fund cash into the government’s “levelling up” agenda.

Officials are working on proposals to dilute the 0.75 per cent ceiling on annual management fees, which was put in place in 2016 to protect workers auto-enrolled into workplace pensions from having their savings eroded by high charges.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is looking at ways to tap billions of pounds of pension fund cash to invest in long-term projects, including infrastructure schemes, renewable energy projects and innovative tech firms, to help deliver on UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s pledge to spread economic growth across the UK.

Many of these assets are held in funds managed by private equity and venture capital firms, however, which commonly levy performance fees linked to certain thresholds on annual returns. Defined contribution (DC) pension managers have traditionally shied away from investing in PE and VC funds, largely due to concerns that these fees would breach the 0.75 per cent charge cap.

Policy initiatives to deliver on the “levelling up” agenda will be a big theme of Sunak’s Budget on October 27. The proposals to dilute the charge cap, which would be subject to consultation, represent a stepping-up of Treasury-led efforts to encourage DC pension funds to invest more widely in assets.

https://swiftheadline.com/pension-savers-face-risk-of-higher-fees-as-sunak-seeks-billions-for-levelling-up/

 

MPC members leaking info to bankers. I'm shocked - NOT!

Quote

 

The Bank of England has banned its Monetary Policy Committee members from having private discussions with bankers after rumours swirled that a deputy governor had revealed policy information in a recent meeting with an investment bank.

Market traders have been excited for a week about rumours that Ben Broadbent, deputy governor for monetary policy, had ruled out an interest rate rise at the coming November MPC meeting in a private gathering with bankers.

https://swiftheadline.com/boe-bans-mpc-members-from-having-private-meetings-with-bankers/

 

 

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the lower volume on houses at the moment is due to lack of supply so people darent sell in case they cant find anything.Around here if you were selling a terrace and looking to buy a 3 bed semi there were always plenty to choose from,a normal market.Now if a 3 bed semi comes up it sells in a few hours or days.There is massive risk in selling and not getting anything.We still have a huge problem of southern bennie claims moving here and landlords buying up houses to rent to them,working first time buyers etc funding those bennies to price them out etc.

I think housing will turn from BTL pain,not owner occupier.It needs welfare freezes on rent,social housing building on a massive scale to cut the rents under the BTL and higher rates.We will get the higher rates,so it then we might start to see some BTL sell up.

What do you think drives DHs call for housing to be hit in a bust? Credit drying up and not coming back for housing because credit is directed to keep what's left of the real economy going?

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31 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

One for the gas experts on the forum, but ... isn't a gas network shutdown/restart a nightmare compared to leccy?

Vaguely recall something about having to go door to door and check every consumer before repressurising because of the risk of an appliance not having shut off properly. There might even be something at the consumer inlet that needs resetting after loss of pressure?

Ah good point, just go to show there are no good choices in this and the best thing to have done was to build enough gas supply for 60+ days that these decisions wouldn't have to be made!  Gas grid nightmare or sitting in the dark on an evening, choices choices.

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