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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

The death rate is ballooning, Spy.  Not from COVID.  From a combination of the lockdowns, overall shitty stress, and, most importantly, the vaccine side effect kills.  One example: the GB Olympic swimming team 31 year old that died this week.  Double jabbed.  No way would he have died unless he had got jabbed, in my view.

I would add, just because the population is larger doesn’t correlate with excess winter deaths numbers (younger immigration etc).

You can see the 100k figures here in the 50s/60s despite a massively lower population. Old people used to die a lot more in cold, damp council accommodation over winter.

41D6B4B4-D9E9-4979-940C-ADD9D9558B21.thumb.jpeg.110186e8f4849718b1880d31d8daffe1.jpeg

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2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I agree with your analysis however there are too many bad actors promoting these Jabs and my scepticism of how safe and effective they are remains elevated.

I hope and pray the Jabs are safe because it really doesn't bare thinking about if they are not.

I am a contrarian by heart, in most things never mind finance, which is why I ended up here I guess.  Fate, synchronicity, whatever you call it. (I am just not very good at understanding macro contrarian numbers)

Therefore I remain unjabbed. 

I wouldn't buy a car someone was trying THIS HARD to sell me.

Anyway, I don't even meet the criteria in the NHS blue pamphlet, but they still want to prick me up.  Curious.

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reformed nice guy
3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

If you had read the first article that was based on figures across the whole of Europe O.o Here's a snippet for you...

"You can see for yourself the excess mortality for much of the EU here. Few people realize that in 2021 we have had as much excess mortality, as we did in 2020. The difference is that the age profile has shifted: Whereas most of the excess mortality was in elderly people in 2020, in 2021 it’s increasingly showing up among younger people. The excess mortality has a peculiar characteristic, in that it starts showing up later in younger age groups, with the exception of children, in whom no excess mortality is observed.

For the 29 participating countries as a whole, we have 4000 excess deaths among people aged 15-44. These deaths are hard to explain, because young people normally don’t die from COVID-19. Just 0.9% of COVID-19 deaths in the Netherlands are people under the age of fifty. The curve of excess mortality in this age category also doesn’t fit COVID-19. This is a seasonal virus that disappear in the summer, but the excess deaths among young people mainly show up during the summer."

As someone wiser than me once said... coincidence, after coincidence, after coincidence may not be a coincidence. It may be a pattern.

We have had 18 months of extremely reduced access to healthcare - isnt an increased death rate to be expected when you cant get access to the GP gate keepers?

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geordie_lurch
6 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

We have had 18 months of extremely reduced access to healthcare - isnt an increased death rate to be expected when you cant get access to the GP gate keepers?

Again these figures are from across the whole of Europe - not sure you can extrapolate your experiences of the UK in the last 18 months and the whole of the EU especially during 2021 where things have allegedly got back to normal because of the 'vaccines'? The excess mortality in each age group via the data seems to show it increasing in younger and younger age ranges to me and many others that are curious or to put another way it's following the same trend as the demographics of who have been given access to the 'vaccines' and when but yeah maybe it's just another coincidence...

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reformed nice guy
Just now, geordie_lurch said:

Again these figures are from across the whole of Europe - not sure you can extrapolate your experiences of the UK in the last 18 months and the whole of the EU especially during 2021 where things have allegedly got back to normal because of the 'vaccines'? The excess mortality in each age group via the data seems to show it increasing in younger and younger age ranges to me and many others that are curious or to put another way it's following the same demographics as who have been given access to the 'vaccines' but yeah maybe it's just another coincidence...

Im not supporting the vaccines by the way, Iv never taken a test or had a vaccine, but I agree with the guys above that it is a combination of things - poor diet, sitting on arse watching netflix on furlough, no access to healthcare, vaccine side effects.

World war 1 wasnt started by a single shot, but the bullet did help!

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geordie_lurch
3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I would think the more likely scenario is that people will rush to decentralised crypto currencies as the markets meltdown and fiat currencies continue to be hyperinflated xD

See this from Zerohedge (or the Bloomberg link below) for the first signs of what will be tried here and around the globe before we get end up with the CBDCs linked to your digital ID (Covid passport) :ph34r:

"The slippery slope analogy of tyrannical control continues to be proven right as Turkey removes the last privacy from its citizens money-changing ways.

Having banned (anonymity-protecting) cryptocurrencies and crypto-assets in April (citing “irreparable” damage and transaction risks), Bloomberg reports that money-changers in Turkey will be required to record the identities of all of their clients under new rules issued following the Lira's collapse to fresh record lows against the dollar this week.

In the past, only clients whose transactions were worth $3,000 or more were asked to submit personal information."

and the closing part to remind people the USA are trying to implement similar invasive legislation

"Of course, this action by Erdogan is nothing at all like the new Democrats' IRS surveillance state plan to track every transaction by an American of over $600... nothing like it at all. Remember, it's for your own security/privacy/safety (pick your dissonance)."

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ThoughtCriminal

World's largest coal miner no longer supplying industrial customers to preserve domestic energy supplies. Steel, cement manufacturers etc now screwed. 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Zoomed out, thank you. It'd be interesting to see a plot of news and media saturation over that...

Ironically it was a BBC news article from back when they were an actual news broadcaster rather than a political narrative mouthpiece sponsored by the highest bidder.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-30243635
 

DE94B8E1-45CD-48A2-A901-26342436D741.thumb.jpeg.b58ce75ac3f7de844512b0fab64dda65.jpeg

 

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I didnt know at the time how they would print the dis-inflation back,just that they would have to,and "green" investment looks like a big part of the way.However i dont think they will be able to purchase many green bonds themselves because they wont be able to print enough more due to inflation.I do think QE and interest rate increase might happen though and if they do i should be put forward for the Nobel prize because i doubt anyone sees that coming.Outlier still yet though.

That's been discussed in the media for years. Adair Turner is one who has definitely talked about it. I think this was in 2014

Quote

 

Adair Turner, a Senior Fellow at the Institute for New Economic Thinking, argues that the best course for monetary policy is to print money and raise interest rates.

https://www.chartwellspeakers.com/best-course-monetary-policy-print-money-raise-interest-rates-explains-adair-turner-expert-speaker-global-finance/

 

 

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6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ramifications keep..........er, ramifying. 

I love this.

The market deciding what's best for practicality. MPs and the cabinet should take note and fuck right off.

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7 hours ago, Harley said:

Just following the dentists then.

Although you could argue the effects are far wider. You might work around 'bad' teeth with quality of life suffering, but you can't always work around serious non-dental health conditions.

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9 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

How true is that? 

Has anyone got the numbers used to make that assertion. I've had a quick skim at Frontline (FRO) and its share price hasn't moved much.

What are the economics of shipping costs and where have the large price increases come from. Is it the loading and unloading and freight transport to or from the ports or have the actual sailing costs jumped? Or is it uisng air freight rather than shipping?

I can tell you it is true,very very true.Not only have container costs from Ningbo to UK gone from £2k to £15k you also pay VAT on them,and the lorry costs.If i imported a £23 Firepit FOB from China the shipping,VAT,customs,lorry from port here to me used to add round 50%,so around £34 a unit i sold for £70 - Amazon fees and courier so around 70% net profit.

Now those Firepits are £28 FOB in China,but £42 additonal costs ,Id need to sell at around £110 now to make £25 a unit profit,but a 25% net profit isnt doable in the import game due to cashflow,damaged stock,returns etc etc.

You can easily produce bulky items in this country cheaper now,the only way shipping at £15k a container in shipping fees is feasible is if you get tens or hundreds  of thousands of small items on the container.

It was an amazing business for switched on one man bands for 15 years,double money every 4 to 5 months,but now it is toxic.I can see a very large percentage trying to keep going and end up burning through their capital until its all over.

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sleepwello'nights
16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I can tell you it is true,very very true.Not only have container costs from Ningbo to UK gone from £2k to £15k you also pay VAT on them,and the lorry costs.If i imported a £23 Firepit FOB from China the shipping,VAT,customs,lorry from port here to me used to add round 50%,so around £34 a unit i sold for £70 - Amazon fees and courier so around 70% net profit.

 

Granted a large increase, but it isn't 900% as quoted in the BBC article for the toys. They must get thousands of units in a container. I can't see such a large cost for each toy.

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10 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Granted a large increase, but it isn't 900% as quoted in the BBC article for the toys. They must get thousands of units in a container. I can't see such a large cost for each toy.

I think they must of been on about something like a sit on car or something,,anything bigger than say 30cmx30cmx50cm will of seen costs explode.Its shocking actually how high costs have gone,im really pleased i saw half of what was coming and got out.It was really stressful as well,you get some customers who you would rip there faces off if they were in front of you.The problems i had to firefight tested me thats for sure.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 really pleased i saw half of what was coming and got out.It was really stressful as well,

Thats what working does for you. Its shite. Since I have retired I sleep better, eat and exercise better. A new world order for me. I tuned in and dropped out:Beer:

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Just now, Agent ZigZag said:

Thats what working does for you. Its shite. Since I have retired I sleep better, eat and exercise better. A new world order for me. I tuned in and dropped out:Beer:

Work has been unrewarding for me. If it wasn’t for the laughs on site it would have been totally shit. Mate told me today that 2 a week commit suicide involved with cuntstruction. ( can someone on here confirm) . My mate is in cuntstruction.It’s full of wankers. Agencies being a real point of contention. 

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Bobthebuilder
8 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Thats what working does for you. Its shite. Since I have retired I sleep better, eat and exercise better. A new world order for me. I tuned in and dropped out:Beer:

When you run your own business or act as a sole trader, you have no boss, but the customers can be cunts and its you that has to deal with them. Cannot pass it on to someone in the office.

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Bobthebuilder
8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Work has been unrewarding for me. If it wasn’t for the laughs on site it would have been totally shit. Mate told me today that 2 a week commit suicide involved with cuntstruction. ( can someone on here confirm) . My mate is in cuntstruction.It’s full of wankers. Agencies being a real point of contention. 

I have a neighbor that works for a big cunstruction company. He does ground drainage, but talks like he knows everything to do with building works. He wouldn't last 5 minutes in a domestic building situation if he had to deal with the customer rather than the management.

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1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have a neighbor that works for a big cunstruction company. He does ground drainage, but talks like he knows everything to do with building works. He wouldn't last 5 minutes in a domestic building situation if he had to deal with the customer rather than the management.

I’ve met em. It’s great quizzing them. Pull the pin, roll it in, let em come out with “ I did… I’ve done… blokes an idiot…” type shit, then ask about their life…. Then in for the kill. Love it. I find I have enough to take the piss out of em. Goes for domestic, commercial types. I can make or break my day. I get what your saying. 

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