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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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sleepwello'nights
12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When you run your own business or act as a sole trader, you have no boss, but the customers can be cunts and its you that has to deal with them. Cannot pass it on to someone in the office.

Many self-employed say better a 100 idiot customers than one idiot boss!

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Suicides due to lockdown and the local Mcdonalds more likely than vaccines.I was out yesterday and the state of half the young lasses,hugely overweight and walk the speed of snails.

And I thought Viz's 'Fats slags' was a parody?....a premonition before its time!

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Not sure if this is relevant. My eldest brother retired 6 weeks back, turned 66 in September.

He lived his life like everyday was the last, never a thought for the future, worked every day from 16 to 66, I actually don't ever remember him getting sick. He pissed most of his cash up the urinal, invested the rest in easy lady's. His last wife took his house and the car.

He's rented the last 15 year's, just a flat, but perfect for a single man. When he retired I thought, well waited for the knock at the door. I would have put him up if only for sloppy seconds, he's a charmer.

F**k how wrong was I. His rent is now paid, no council tax, bus pass. 180 quid a week. He was only on 8.79 an hour when working, 40 hours a week. Don't think he's no worse off.

I guess he's used to living on x amount which is the secret. Want for little and enjoy you're free time is the secret. Ignore the media noise about needing this and that for retirement. Unprogram yourself from the state mind games.

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ThoughtCriminal
12 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Not sure if this is relevant. My eldest brother retired 6 weeks back, turned 66 in September.

He lived his life like everyday was the last, never a thought for the future, worked every day from 16 to 66, I actually don't ever remember him getting sick. He pissed most of his cash up the urinal, invested the rest in easy lady's. His last wife took his house and the car.

He's rented the last 15 year's, just a flat, but perfect for a single man. When he retired I thought, well waited for the knock at the door. I would have put him up if only for sloppy seconds, he's a charmer.

F**k how wrong was I. His rent is now paid, no council tax, bus pass. 180 quid a week. He was only on 8.79 an hour when working, 40 hours a week. Don't think he's no worse off.

I guess he's used to living on x amount which is the secret. Want for little and enjoy you're free time is the secret. Ignore the media noise about needing this and that for retirement. Unprogram yourself from the state mind games.

Amen to that 👍

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Cant but help think this making money from shares is getting a bit too easy, SIPPS up to 157k, which is about 20% in just a couple of months ... and after many years on planet earth i'm a firm believer that making money is never so easy.

Time of reckoning can't be too far away, as after my trip overseas this week, planet earth seems fucked, and there is zero chance i'll ever be holidaying in Europe in this life time.

 

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cant but help think this making money from shares is getting a bit too easy, SIPPS up to 157k, which is about 20% in just a couple of months ... and after many years on planet earth i'm a firm believer that making money is never so easy.

Time of reckoning can't be too far away, as after my trip overseas this week, planet earth seems fucked, and there is zero chance i'll ever be holidaying in Europe in this life time.

 

yeah.  I'm up 40k on a 200k pot since about a month ago. 

 

That's not right.  As in, seriously not right.

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If you're making money, you're working for someone. And have to deal with all the shit that comes with it.

Who'd like some inflationary anecdata? People are slowly returning to the office in the City, and the services around them are coming back to life. Great chicken satay shack on Petticoat Lane, pre Covid £5 regular, £6 large. Today £7 regular, £8 large..Still a queue a mile long and similar increases going on in the area. Two pints of beer? Would have been less than a  tenner pre Covid, now you'll be paying north of £12. Pubs banged out Tuesday to Thursday.

Yes, I know, you can get two pints of best and a slap up meal for a tenner in Keswick.

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Time of reckoning can't be too far away, as after my trip overseas this week, planet earth seems fucked, and there is zero chance i'll ever be holidaying in Europe in this life time.

Oh well, fuck it. We've been on three camping holidays this year. Cost less than going abroad, was easier than flying to a hotel, kids had as much fun as they'd have anywhere. I'm quite happy to stay in the UK for a few years until the rest of the world finds its marbles.

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7 hours ago, Loki said:

 

 

 

This is well worth watching

Cheers! Another good one, if you want to educate people that economies are energy systems.

Here is some tasty trivia that you can tell your family and friends at your future candle-lit dinner parties.

The Roman Empire didn't fall because it debased its currency. There was enough silver ore, they just couldn't access enough energy to produce the silver.

Silver production peaked because they ran out of trees to burn.

It always goes back to energy return on energy invested.

Imagine the faint glimmer of understanding starting to appear in your guests eyes, just about visible as they pull their clothes a little more tightly around them to try to keep out the encroaching cold. It'll give them something to think about as they cycle home.

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4 hours ago, AWW said:

If you're making money, you're working for someone. And have to deal with all the shit that comes with it.

Who'd like some inflationary anecdata? People are slowly returning to the office in the City, and the services around them are coming back to life. Great chicken satay shack on Petticoat Lane, pre Covid £5 regular, £6 large. Today £7 regular, £8 large..Still a queue a mile long and similar increases going on in the area. Two pints of beer? Would have been less than a  tenner pre Covid, now you'll be paying north of £12. Pubs banged out Tuesday to Thursday.

Yes, I know, you can get two pints of best and a slap up meal for a tenner in Keswick.

If I have the correct place I used to frequent there when it was around £4 - maybe £4.50 for a large.

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JimmyTheBruce
13 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I love this.

The market deciding what's best for practicality. MPs and the cabinet should take note and fuck right off.

They can't fuck off, they're busy creating temporary visa schemes for any industry that shouts loud enough.  One wonders if we can do anything in this country other than just import foreigners.

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11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When you run your own business or act as a sole trader, you have no boss, but the customers can be cunts and its you that has to deal with them. Cannot pass it on to someone in the office.

"I started my own business so I could be my own boss. Now every cunt thinks he's my boss"

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10 hours ago, Hancock said:

Cant but help think this making money from shares is getting a bit too easy, SIPPS up to 157k, which is about 20% in just a couple of months ... and after many years on planet earth i'm a firm believer that making money is never so easy.

Time of reckoning can't be too far away, as after my trip overseas this week, planet earth seems fucked, and there is zero chance i'll ever be holidaying in Europe in this life time.

 

What the market gives, it also takes away. For me, important not to get too cocky, the minute you think it is easy something happens. Like DB said, markets like to hurt the most people the most, and I guess a time for that is when everyone is sitting on gains

Wasn't so long ago that porfolios lost more than 20% in just a few weeks. I see it as a reward for not panicing and selling out; and also buying when there was blood in the streets.

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Shipping and energy shortages might be the BK initiator?? 

Could set off a derivative bomb somewhere.Leverage and derivatives are the risk.CBs have flooded liquidity as expected to try to make sure it doesnt happen,but there is massive dislocation everywhere.

The main thing i keep seeing in the numbers is consumption must fall (in volume,not price) and production must increase.Sounds crazy,how can production increase and consumption fall,well because there is a big lag,the price signals are to produce.

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52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Could set off a derivative bomb somewhere.Leverage and derivatives are the risk.CBs have flooded liquidity as expected to try to make sure it doesnt happen,but there is massive dislocation everywhere.

The main thing i keep seeing in the numbers is consumption must fall (in volume,not price) and production must increase.Sounds crazy,how can production increase and consumption fall,well because there is a big lag,the price signals are to produce.

Part of the shortages are caused by companies [and Dosbodders] over-ordering and stockpiling supplies.

Could find that in some sectors it suddenly reverts to oversupply once the orders catch up and no one needs to do another order for a while.*

This won't be across the board though as we are currently still in a dominoes situation where one disruption then affects another. I assume this is the effect  @DurhamBorn sees in his predictions and the reason it will not be going away anytime soon.

 

* Some sectors catching up could well be the catalyst needed to drop inflation slightly. It was too soon this month but I do feel we are setting up for a downshift in next months figures. The markets shrugged off the increase this week so they want to move higher, a lower than expected reading next month could well push the markets to their new highs.

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14 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Granted a large increase, but it isn't 900% as quoted in the BBC article for the toys. They must get thousands of units in a container. I can't see such a large cost for each toy.

But wasn't original news article you referenced about Harry Potter toys...?

...In which case, i suspect the BBC article was an 'average' of: ('nice' click-bait picture + 'worst' case figures) = Justifiably Smug Article. I believe journo's are taught at journo school these days that such JSA articles are perfectly ethical!

However, should also remember to factor in the return costs of said products, i.e. i found those Harry Potter wands very unreliable!!

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14 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You cant buy this shit. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

Greatest inverse indicator in the world. 

 

Fucking imbeciles. 

Great succinct analysis. Your not Rod Liddle are you? ...'Peak W*nk' is one of his favorite terms.

But to think that he was once the R4 Today producer... how times have changed.

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10 hours ago, AWW said:

Yes, I know, you can get two pints of best and a slap up meal for a tenner in Keswick.

I am informed that for that money you can get all that and a 'woman' in the North East, although maybe its just a vicious rumor to get all of 'The Southerns' to relocate? :-)

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10 hours ago, AWW said:

until the rest of the world finds its marbles

I don't think its the rest of the world getting their marbles [bar a few exceptions...yes Australia we are looking at you!], more a case of when you return to the UK and have to quarantine in an expensive hotel...unless of course you have 'done as you are told' and got the ineffective vaccine!

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50 minutes ago, planit said:

Could find that in some sectors it suddenly reverts to oversupply once the orders catch up and no one needs to do another order for a while.*

So do you mean toilet paper, or am I getting that confused with FIAT?

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