Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[sancho panza]

15 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Think about 1/3rd of the SIPP is in oil shares, which wont be getting sold.

But i just don't see flying getting back to the levels it was at for a long time, as business travel has changed forever.

If my flying experience of yesterday is anything to go by, it seems govts are intent on destroying that industry.

I was referring to a sell signal for the oilies.I should have been more specific.I think there are a lot of reasosn to be lightening exposure to a raft of sectors at the mo.

On other matters ,I referred to the skew intorduced by CPI deflators in GDP calcs in previous post.BY chance Wolf has jsut posted a wonderful laymens explanation of how/why it's so unrepresentative of teh experince of msot people,from 24% being linkd to imputed rents to hedonic adjsutments.see toyota camry chart at the bottom

Bold for skimmers

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/10/13/dollars-purchasing-power-plunges-as-housing-cpi-begins-to-climb-food-energy-soar-new-vehicle-prices-spike/

Dollar’s Purchasing Power Plunges Further, as Housing CPI Begins to Climb, Food & Energy Soar, New Vehicle Prices Spike

by Wolf Richter • Oct 13, 2021 • 188 Comments

CPI inflation highest since 2008 and 1991.

By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.4% in September from August. The relentless series of jumps started in January when this “transitory” inflation took off. But now, “transitory is a dirty word,” as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic phrased it so elegantly, because the underlying dynamics have made it persistent: as some prices back off, others are surging.

On an annual basis, CPI jumped by 5.4%, matching the June high this year, and both are the highest since July and August 2008 (5.6% and 5.4%), and all four are the highest since early 1991, according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today.

The increase was driven by numerous factors including food and rents and gasoline and utilities and new vehicles.

Food and energy can move sharply and erratically, often following prices of commodities. With food and energy removed, the “core CPI” rose by 0.2% for the month and by 4.0% year-over-year.

Rent is the biggie in CPI. Its two versions are the largest items in the CPI basket of goods and services, and determine nearly one-third of CPI. These rent factors had plunged, and had kept CPI from surging even higher in the spring and summer. But they made a U-turn a few months ago and are now rising but are still holding down CPI. This is going to be the driver of CPI going forward – as market rents are surging in many cities by 10% year-over-year, and in some places over 20%. CPI is now making tentative steps to catch up.

This is the inflation game of Whac-A-Mole, as price increases spiral through the economy from category to category.

The overall CPI attempts to measure the loss of the purchasing power of the consumer dollar. In September, the purchasing power dropped another 0.3%. On this 20-year chart, you can see the sharp drop-off over the first nine months this year (-4.9%). Since 2000, the purchasing power of $1 has dropped by 38 cents:

CPI understates housing costs, but the CPI for them are taking off.

“Rent of primary residence,” which weighs 7.6% in the overall CPI, jumped 0.5% for the month, which brought the year-over-year rise to 2.4%. Before the pandemic, the rent index ran between 3.5% and 4% year-over-year. During the pandemic, it plunged and prevented overall CPI from surging even more. But that phase is now over as surging market rents are gradually getting picked up by the CPI for rent:

“Owner’s equivalent rent of residences” – which tracks the costs of homeownership and weighs 23.6% in the overall CPI – doesn’t track actual home-price inflation, but is based on surveys that ask what homeowners think their home might rent for and is therefore a measure of rent as seen by the homeowner.

This measure also U-turned and is taking off. In September, it rose 0.4% for the month, the fastest monthly increase since 2006! This brought the year-over-year gain to 2.9%.

So two things:

• The 2.9% rise is still holding down overall CPI (5.4%).
• The 2.9% gain is still ludicrously small compared to the record crazy price explosion in the housing market.

As the index for “Owner’s equivalent of rent” just started budging (red line below), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks actual price changes of the same house and is therefore a measure of house price inflation, spiked by 19.7% year-over year, the most in the data going back to 1987 (purple line).  Both indexes are set to 100 for January 2000:

Food costs (weighing 13.9% in the overall CPI), jumped 0.9% for the month and 4.6% year-over-year. The CPI for meats spiked by 3.3% for the month and by 12.6% year-over-year, with beef spiking by 4.8% for the month and by 17.6% year-over-year, which is surprising only in that it hasn’t spiked a whole lot more, given reality at the grocery store.

Energy costs (weighing 7.3% in the overall CPI) spiked by 1.3% for the month and by 24.8% year-over-year. Within the category:

• Gasoline +1.2% for the month, +42.1% year-over-year
• Utility natural gas to the home: +2.7% for the month, +20.6% year-over-year
• Electricity service: +0.8% for the month, +5.2% year-over-year.

 

 

 

What are “hedonic quality adjustments?” CPI attempts to measure the loss of the purchasing power of the dollar with regards to the same item over time. When the price increases because the product gets better, the portion of the price increase related to the improvement of the product isn’t considered loss of purchasing power. And this makes sense: Pay more for a better product.

In terms of cars and trucks, these improvements have been dramatic, for example, the move over the years from a three-speed automatic transmission to a 10-speed electronically controlled transmission today.

In the end, inflation indexes are political devices, decided by politics, for political purposes – underplaying the actual loss of purchasing power of the dollar and the purchasing power of people’s earnings. Even if the understatements are fairly small each year, they massively compound over the decades. Every government over the past decades adhered to this strategy religiously.

My F-150 and Camry Price Index illustrates how prices have soared, even as the CPI for new cars and trucks (green line) remained nearly flat until the current spike.

For retirees, 2021 was a nasty year: Red hot inflation and a stingy COLA. In 2022, they might fall behind more slowly.

[ThoughtCriminal]

40 minutes ago, Hunty said:

Over cautious buddy. You'll probably have no quality of life post 78. Post 72 you'll see your spending habits severely decrease. I sometimes cannot believe the over estimation some folks make on retirement cash flow needs. As a species up to 100 years ago we never lived past 50. Now folks plan for good health and active life styles post late 70's. 

I always say, give up work for a year in your 40's, see how your spending habits change. Then do it again in your 50's coinciding with ailments and niggly health issues. Next stop 60's, lack of sleep, feeling drained. 

 

Before i read that i was happy and ready for sleep. 

 

Now im depressed as fuck 🤣

[Gin]

3 hours ago, Hunty said:

Over cautious buddy. You'll probably have no quality of life post 78. Post 72 you'll see your spending habits severely decrease. I sometimes cannot believe the over estimation some folks make on retirement cash flow needs. As a species up to 100 years ago we never lived past 50. Now folks plan for good health and active life styles post late 70's. 

I always say, give up work for a year in your 40's, see how your spending habits change. Then do it again in your 50's coinciding with ailments and niggly health issues. Next stop 60's, lack of sleep, feeling drained. 

I think many overly compensate for retirement that they never actually realise, it's why the city spivs drive Italian cars and us mere mortals fret and worry whether we have enough to stop contributing to their tax take.

Take a year off work, see how you fill your time, watch what you spend. The shit the BBC tell you, what you need is nothing like reality.

I've been retired a year, your whole mindset changes. 

If you're a champaign Charlie you'll work till you drop. If you've never been a Champaign Charlie then when your retired you'll live within your means and not require funds to match a life style you've never had and probably never wanted.

Looking back, if I were 66, house paid for, full state pension, no savings, no council tax, full pension priveledges, I'd take that without working my bullocks off for a private pension which I could not spend.

I`m 67 in June and agree with the sentiments of this post .

I feel lucky to be able to still hike up to 15 / 20 mile at a push but my outlook on life has changed . Our mortality comes sharply into focus and the old saying the best things in life are free is never more true .

I still remember listening to people say , when they retire they plan to do this that and the other , and not wanting to wax too lyrical but the truth is at times I feel privileged just to see another sunrise .

Priorities change dramatically and things that satisfy are mostly not purchased .

My wife and I have no debt and my state pension feels like a small fortune .  I have been a sole trader most of my working life transporting household furniture . A fairly tough physical job and when i was younger there were a few times when I looked with envy at those coiffured men in their Porsches , but looking back now I wouldn`t  want it any different.

At times I`ve had  just a few pennies to my name but at the same time no debt to speak of , and that is key to keeping a clear head and with luck never feeling overwhelmed .

And in my opinion it helps to get a good woman 25 years younger than yourself if my age...but thats a bit of a minefield !   

 

 

[Sugarlips]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Updated anecdotal. I flagged up early doors at the beginning of the year with shipping container costs rising with my brother’s company. My brothers manufacturing is now 90% based in the UK.

Well now units on his industrial estate are going bust at the pace of knots. The guy opposite my brothers unit which employed 26 staff for years and he paraded around in ever new R8’s, has just gone down the pan today. He was importing everything from gym equipment to phone covers from China yet he blames Brexit for the collapse of the whole company.

I can’t stress enough that this is the level of the economic illiteracy we are dealing with. This is still at the supplier side of costs and businesses going bust. Once this reverberates out to the consumer end it will be carnage. A 40 year disinflation cycle ending won’t leave many companies surviving.

 

I’d be interested in a cheap R8 if you know of one..

sounds like renting commercial units will be a lot cheaper going fwd

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

I’d be interested in a cheap R8 if you know of one..

sounds like renting commercial units will be a lot cheaper going fwd

Business perks always sound nice, just need enough paying fucking customers.

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 hours ago, Gin said:

I`m 67 in June and agree with the sentiments of this post .

I feel lucky to be able to still hike up to 15 / 20 mile at a push but my outlook on life has changed . 

And in my opinion it helps to get a good woman 25 years younger than yourself if my age...but thats a bit of a minefield !   

 

 

Most people in their 20s and 30s couldn't even manage a 5 mile hike so i wouldn't mark yourself down for "only" 20.

 

Im 45, never married no kids, and id only change that for a 20 something Tatiana from the East. British women of my vintage and below tend to be bloody vile. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

They're now offering 2 months finance on pizza in America. 

 

PIZZA. 

 

Bet DBs modelling didnt predict that. 😂

[Castlevania]

14 hours ago, Starsend said:

Any thoughts on Diversified Energy and the recent 20% price fall? @Cattle Prod

It looks overdone to me and perhaps a good entry point, they're yielding 11%+

https://qnewscrunch.com/business/money/market-report-leaking-wells-send-diversified-energy-crashing-20/

 

 

They’re the company Bloomberg did a hit piece on?

[Starsend]

14 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

They’re the company Bloomberg did a hit piece on?

That's the one. Wondering if it's a load of bollocks, sounds like it is to me so could be a good buy. Had my eye on them for a while.

[Heart's Ease]

 

Concentrates my mind!

Thanks again to all thread contributors and OP DB. 

My humble RDSB ISA allocation is touching Don Bradman's batting average in its gains.  Quite the run from 897p. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Are they this stupid? Or do they think we are? 

 

I can well believe its both. 

[Starsend]

7 hours ago, Gin said:

I`m 67 in June and agree with the sentiments of this post .

I feel lucky to be able to still hike up to 15 / 20 mile at a push but my outlook on life has changed . Our mortality comes sharply into focus and the old saying the best things in life are free is never more true .

I still remember listening to people say , when they retire they plan to do this that and the other , and not wanting to wax too lyrical but the truth is at times I feel privileged just to see another sunrise .

Priorities change dramatically and things that satisfy are mostly not purchased .

My wife and I have no debt and my state pension feels like a small fortune .  I have been a sole trader most of my working life transporting household furniture . A fairly tough physical job and when i was younger there were a few times when I looked with envy at those coiffured men in their Porsches , but looking back now I wouldn`t  want it any different.

At times I`ve had  just a few pennies to my name but at the same time no debt to speak of , and that is key to keeping a clear head and with luck never feeling overwhelmed .

And in my opinion it helps to get a good woman 25 years younger than yourself if my age...but thats a bit of a minefield !   

 

 

15/20 miles is pretty damn impressive at 67. I'll be delighted if I can still do that when I get to that age.

I go walk stretches of the Camino Santiago every year. I do up to 20 miles a day, every day, up and down hills carrying weight. Hell of a work out, you can feel your fitness levels escalate rapidly. Fecking hard though, most people have no idea how hard long distance walking is day after day. Last time I went I was the only one out of four who could complete it, everybody else out due to injury, pussies  I'm early fifties now, hope to keep doing it as long as I can.

Talking of younger women, I was out last night and getting hit on by a woman almost twenty years my junior, fit as a butchers dog but decided not to go there but damn it was tempting.

[Harley]

22 hours ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Someone clearly read my superb analysis of Salt Lake Potash....

 

 

I didn't.  Please use CAPITAL LETTERS! 

[Starsend]

10 hours ago, Hunty said:

Over cautious buddy. You'll probably have no quality of life post 78. Post 72 you'll see your spending habits severely decrease. I sometimes cannot believe the over estimation some folks make on retirement cash flow needs. As a species up to 100 years ago we never lived past 50. Now folks plan for good health and active life styles post late 70's. 

I always say, give up work for a year in your 40's, see how your spending habits change. Then do it again in your 50's coinciding with ailments and niggly health issues. Next stop 60's, lack of sleep, feeling drained. 

I think many overly compensate for retirement that they never actually realise, it's why the city spivs drive Italian cars and us mere mortals fret and worry whether we have enough to stop contributing to their tax take.

Take a year off work, see how you fill your time, watch what you spend. The shit the BBC tell you, what you need is nothing like reality.

I've been retired a year, your whole mindset changes. 

If you're a champaign Charlie you'll work till you drop. If you've never been a Champaign Charlie then when your retired you'll live within your means and not require funds to match a life style you've never had and probably never wanted.

Looking back, if I were 66, house paid for, full state pension, no savings, no council tax, full pension priveledges, I'd take that without working my bullocks off for a private pension which I could not spend.

That's a very good point. I probably am building in a pretty good safety margin. I'll be retiring by 55 for good so I don't mind if I've worked a bit longer than necessary for that extra margin. If I find myself spending a lot less in my seventies cos I can't get out of my chair then I'll spend more on my childen/grandchildren.

I'm pretty frugal and I've been a freelancer most of my life so I've had a year or two off. I've tracked my expenditure carefully in and out of work and it varies little, maybe a tank of extra fuel once a month when working and a little more on sandwiches.

I see all this stuff online talking about pension pots of £500,000 or a £1,000,000 and I just think why the fuck do you  need that much unless you intend to die and leave all the capital. I'm happy drawing down the capital to zero which means you need a pot a quarter of the size. All brainwashing by the financial industry.

 

 

 

[Harley]

22 hours ago, belfastchild said:

This was one of the contributory factors (in a way) to the telco part of the dot.com crash.
Forgive me on the actual figures (been 20 years) but they are roughly right. At about 93% utilisation most telco networks (and I mean country/company wide) become almost unuseable so we would always recommend implementation of upgrade/replacement to happen around 83% (again growth dependent).
The late 90s was the wild west for telco growth so we generally went to upgrading at around 17% to allow for supply/growth/massive profit etc etc. Nobody thought to think what happened if the growth in utilisation stopped for 6 months and nobody ordered anything and I mean phones stopped ringing etc. Meanwhile you had stockpiles of kit to be tested, production lines growing, new products in development and had hired a shitload of people to cope with the growth that you maybe wont see the return on all that training/mgmt overhead for another year or two. Alarm bells went off with me when someone Id turned down at interview (worst candidate Id ever interviewed) ended up working for me when I came back from holidays (Id missed the meeting where they were divvied up!). I was told that we needed the bodies and nobody was available.

What if you have stockpiled stuff that nobody wants or more importantly from anecdotes Ive seen locally, nobody can afford.

Rumours of government agencies going round auction houses/house clearance companies asking if they would take complete offices of equipment. Most telling them to sling their hook because the boom in desks, chairs, monitors etc for home working was last year, you cant give them away now. More landfill.

The conspiracy nut in me cant help but think this was a great way to zoom up all that qe cash (that and crypto, faang stocks) for it to be wiped out in a controlled way.

Cobweb theorem!  Was mainly applicable to crops but now we have mass production of many other things.

[Harley]

17 hours ago, Festival said:

Not sure this belongs on this forum but i'll try anyway given how much people on this forum know about investing.

 

At what age do you think you should start drawing down on the capital sum (ie SIPP, ISAs and any other assets) as opposed to limiting spending to the income you earn (eg dividends, final salary pension, interest etc). I'm 55 in good health, have a good understanding of current income from shares etc and my expenditure today and what I will get from state pension etc. However although I'm really close to putting my SIPP into drawdown I've not yet pulled the trigger as I dont know how quickly the capital sum will erode if you start taking a bit more than the annual income each year. Does anyone have a ready reckoner or a rule of thumb they use?

Covered up-thread.  I second using DCF in Excel, but then further analysing the results from flexing the underlying assumptions on rates, etc.  These rules of thumb are BS by comparison.

A real lightbulb moment for me.  It also provided other info like how much risk v rate of return I needed to take.  99% of people just don't go there or guess.  Crazy.

I might even work an example if anyone is interested and I have some rare spare time.

[Gin]

47 minutes ago, Starsend said:

15/20 miles is pretty damn impressive at 67. I'll be delighted if I can still do that when I get to that age.

I go walk stretches of the Camino Santiago every year. I do up to 20 miles a day, every day, up and down hills carrying weight. Hell of a work out, you can feel your fitness levels escalate rapidly. Fecking hard though, most people have no idea how hard long distance walking is day after day. Last time I went I was the only one out of four who could complete it, everybody else out due to injury, pussies  I'm early fifties now, hope to keep doing it as long as I can.

Talking of younger women, I was out last night and getting hit on by a woman almost twenty years my junior, fit as a butchers dog but decided not to go there but damn it was tempting.

Well done with the Camino Santiago too .That thing about walking is it helps to build confidence that filters through into everyday life.

Walks over 5/8 mile (say)  mostly anyone could do with just a reasonable fitness level . There is often a stage where the endorphins kick in and those natural highs are great.

If at times you feel low at work or home , you know those simple highs are only a ruck sack and a short drive away .

Sorry for any thread drift .

 

[sleepwello'nights]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

 

I see all this stuff online talking about pension pots of £500,000 or a £1,000,000 and I just think why the fuck do you  need that much unless you intend to die and leave all the capital. I'm happy drawing down the capital to zero which means you need a pot a quarter of the size. All brainwashing by the financial industry.

 

 

 

All well and good if you know the date you're going to die. The other important factor is what the rate of inflation is going to be. 

I'm still saving what I can even though I am in receipt of the state pension. 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

They're now offering 2 months finance on pizza in America. 

 

PIZZA. 

 

Bet DBs modelling didnt predict that. 😂

Why you think i bought a Pizza oven 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

That's a very good point. I probably am building in a pretty good safety margin. I'll be retiring by 55 for good so I don't mind if I've worked a bit longer than necessary for that extra margin. If I find myself spending a lot less in my seventies cos I can't get out of my chair then I'll spend more on my childen/grandchildren.

I'm pretty frugal and I've been a freelancer most of my life so I've had a year or two off. I've tracked my expenditure carefully in and out of work and it varies little, maybe a tank of extra fuel once a month when working and a little more on sandwiches.

I see all this stuff online talking about pension pots of £500,000 or a £1,000,000 and I just think why the fuck do you  need that much unless you intend to die and leave all the capital. I'm happy drawing down the capital to zero which means you need a pot a quarter of the size. All brainwashing by the financial industry.

 

 

 

I want everyone on this thread knocking on the door of the lifetime allowance by the time we are finished,and if they only have low capital well on the way to an amount they can be happy on.A lot depends on when they retire.I needed a lot because iv gone at 49 and 60% of assets outside of house and PMs are in my SIPP and i cant access for another 5 years so my income is coming off 40% of my assets at the moment,but thats fine.

If someone wants to go at 55 i think £200k in SIPP £100k ISA are do-able,but £250k SIPP £130k ISA better.Knack then is use tax allowance plus tax free cash uplift (16700 tax free a year) and re-invest divs in ISA etc.Lots of variables.

 

[invalid]

16 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Updated anecdotal. I flagged up early doors at the beginning of the year with shipping container costs rising with my brother’s company. My brothers manufacturing is now 90% based in the UK.

Well now units on his industrial estate are going bust at the pace of knots. The guy opposite my brothers unit which employed 26 staff for years and he paraded around in ever new R8’s, has just gone down the pan today. He was importing everything from gym equipment to phone covers from China yet he blames Brexit for the collapse of the whole company.

I can’t stress enough that this is the level of the economic illiteracy we are dealing with. This is still at the supplier side of costs and businesses going bust. Once this reverberates out to the consumer end it will be carnage. A 40 year disinflation cycle ending won’t leave many companies surviving.

 

 

Sounds like he was an 'entrepreneur'.

Businesses importing and selling stuff from China don't really add much value to the UK - no offense to DB of course. There is money to be made (or rather there was) so I don't blame people for doing it but looking at the bigger and longer term picture it adds very little.

Like these posh twats who start up a business selling fancy eco vegan pure foods, or ethical water "No permeable rocks were harmed when we extracted our water".

These type businesses are looking to be a thing of the past.

 

It's all very different to times of old. Businesses would genuinely innovate (designing a fancy label for a plastic bottle of water is not innovative) and invest - new ways of doing things, designing new machines, financial investment and what I would call a real investment in people by training them in skilled jobs.

 

[DurhamBorn]

16 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Updated anecdotal. I flagged up early doors at the beginning of the year with shipping container costs rising with my brother’s company. My brothers manufacturing is now 90% based in the UK.

Well now units on his industrial estate are going bust at the pace of knots. The guy opposite my brothers unit which employed 26 staff for years and he paraded around in ever new R8’s, has just gone down the pan today. He was importing everything from gym equipment to phone covers from China yet he blames Brexit for the collapse of the whole company.

I can’t stress enough that this is the level of the economic illiteracy we are dealing with. This is still at the supplier side of costs and businesses going bust. Once this reverberates out to the consumer end it will be carnage. A 40 year disinflation cycle ending won’t leave many companies surviving.

 

Exactly why i  closed down and re-invested the capital i knew the music was slowing.There is no way back for him,or other companies,the ground has shifted.I could of survived being a one man band just,but the stress would of been through the roof and the rewards falling away.Like iv said the model relies on good net margins and turning containers over every 4 to 5 months on each product line,one arrives,you sell for a month then re-order so next arrives just as your running out.Thats how it works so you need about 140% of the cost of a full container delivered.I ran three product lines usually so 3 containers in 3 on way mostly.The massive cost increases has meant you need nearly double the capital now and margins gone from 50% to 80% to 25%,that before other costs like storage,wages etc.I expect hes got containers held up,plus waiting longer to re-order because they didnt have the cashflow in so running out of items for long periods,but fixed costs still.

The game needed go for it guys,youd fail without that,but most like that dont have the skills to understand the other side.

 

[Festival]

17 hours ago, Starsend said:

Similar boat to yourself.

I've tracked my expenditure for the last three years so I have a very good idea of how much I need each month.

I worked out what sum I needed to start with to draw my monthly amount and not run out until I'm 85.

I've based it on beating inflation by 1% each year. If I achieve more than that then I'm laughing.

I've assumed that I'll get the state pension kicking in at 67.

Easy to model this stuff in an excel spreadsheet.

There are obviously risks, out of control inflation, Government theft, removal of state pension, but you have to start somewhere.

I've assumed 85 as most people don't live a lot longer than that. If I do then I'm planning on robbing a bank as I'm pretty sure they don't lock up 85 year olds, they just kind of give you a slap on the wrist and let you go.

Starsend - thank-you.

We have our expenditure well understood at least for base ie non inflation adjusted and I have an aspiration to beat inflation by 1 to 2% a year over time and have state pension kicking in at 67 like you.  I also have an assumption of living to 85 ish - after that I'm not sure I will care greatly (nor will be physically up to bank robbing although it would make a good movie)!!

I have never tried to understand what happens past state pension age presumably we want to get as much out as tax efficiently prior to then but without exceeding a safe withdrawal rate I guess.

 

[Festival]

16 hours ago, Hancock said:

Is it possible to live off the dividends, and just draw them from the SIPP?

If my SIPP has the 2031 equivalent of £200K, i was hoping to just live off divis and do about 10 days work to get to £13k PA.

Thats where I start from Hancock that the pension drawdown plus other bits and pieces of income = expenditure in a most tax efficient way possible but as both of us currently work giving the work up is harder than it first appears.

[feed]