Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Castlevania]

56 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Is this something you can test? Is it a qr code that turns into a url?

By domestic I meant the Dutch one I have. If you don’t have a smartphone you can access a PDF to print off. I just checked and it has your initials; month and day of your birthdate; and the date of when you got your second jab. And a nice/sinister message stating you can keep your personal details to yourself.

The EU one has everything on it.

[Hancock]

10 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

You visited mainland Europe and a scan of your UK qr code brought up your name and dob?

No just my name and vaxxes.

[Hancock]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They should of hired a macro strategist 5 years ago,fuck them now.I have worked for,and seen how companies rejoiced in the dis-inflation to treat workers like shit, thinking it was never ending to import Chinese workers labour for peanuts.The clever ones now will see the games changed,onshore and increase wages,the ones who hark for the past are fubar.Let them cry.This inflation isnt going away,we are in a distribution cycle now,everything is flipped on its head.

 

Ive got a job to go to this week. I accepted the day rate they paid 5 years ago on the basis i've no other work on.

But then the woman from HR said i have to pay for my own hotel and food out of that rate ... obviously i said i wont be going ... then they got back to me saying they'd pay.

Now it may just be a dopey bird. But i presume the reality is they think contractors are just dirty monkeys who should be thankful for the work from such superior beings, and will take any conditions they offer.

Sadly many thick British cunts are used to getting screwed over and would have paid over £100 a day in digs and food out of their own money.

[Hancock]

4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I live on the mainland and went to three pubs/bars last Friday. Not one asked to see my Covid vaccination status. 

Get yourself to Switzerland.

[Hancock]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Someone gets shifty asking me for papers il just walk in anyway and if they lay one finger on me il put them over the bar.There is a Premier Inn in Durham,East coast mainline.Maybe we should arrange a meet up and piss up in sometime 

Just cough on them!

[Hancock]

This article from the FT sums up the 1%ers.

They want open borders for immigrant truck drivers to bring down the income of workers .... but the govt then opens up our border to European truck companies and they are up in arms as it brings down their earnings.

https://www.ft.com/content/177b10ba-a1a8-4068-8c42-eb2f83e4faf5

The UK government has been criticised after announcing plans to give European truck drivers the ability to do more pick-ups and drop-offs while in the UK but failing to achieve the same rights for British drivers on the continent.

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, on Friday morning said the industry should welcome the proposed new flexibility around “cabotage”. The measure is designed to help tackle a critical shortage of HGV drivers, which has led to pressure on supply chains, some empty shelves and a brief petrol panic-buying frenzy.

“Why would we not want to do things which are a sensible, proportionate and give us additional resilience during what is a global issue of supply chains,” he said. But Jim McMahon, Labour’s shadow transport secretary, said the proposed deal was not good enough. “Allowing HGV drivers multi-drops and pick-ups ‘cabotage’ should have been included in the [Brexit] withdrawal agreement, and it should apply to British hauliers working in the EU too,” he said. “It still does not.”

Under the proposals, foreign operators that come into the country laden with goods will be able to pick up and drop off goods an unlimited number of times for two weeks before they return home. At present, hauliers from the EU can only make up to two cabotage trips within seven days.

The Road Haulage Association (RHA) said the move would “sabotage our industry” by undercutting British lorry drivers. “I spoke to some of our members last night and they were appalled — ‘ridiculous’, ‘pathetic’, ‘gobsmacked’ were some of their more broadcastable comments,” said Rod McKenzie, the RHA’s policy director.

“Allowing overseas companies and drivers to come over for perhaps up to six months on a fortnightly basis to do unlimited work at low rates, undercutting UK hauliers.” Shapps hit back, pointing out that the trade body had for months been asking the government to let more foreign drivers enter Britain.

The transport secretary said the cabotage measure was just one of 25 initiatives he had taken in recent weeks to fix the shortage of drivers bedevilling British industry. But McMahon said the public faced a “potentially ruined Christmas” because ministers had underplayed the scale of the crisis.

“The government are bumbling from one delayed reaction to another — a direct result of their failure to properly plan to make Brexit work,” he said. Recommended Supply chains UK port disruption spreads, casting shadow over Christmas Meanwhile, Unite the Union has threatened strikes by HGV drivers to demand better pay and conditions — a move that would cause even more disruption.

The transport department accused the union of trying to “hold Christmas hostage”. But Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, said: “It’s time for the employer to pay workers a proper rate for the job. Enough is enough. Unite will be consulting its members before deciding on next steps, including exploring the options for industrial action.

I will not allow workers to pay the price for the pandemic.” Shapps’ announcement was part of a wider package that included seasonal visas for 800 foreign butchers to alleviate labour shortages in the pig industry. Farmers had warned that 10,000 pigs might have to be destroyed every week because of a shortage of workers at industrial slaughterhouses, with some running a quarter below normal capacity.

They have already slaughtered thousands of animals to avoid breaking regulations on allotted space after a build-up of at least 120,000 surplus pigs on farms because of the butcher shortage, the National Pig Association said last week.

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Jeez what's you're hourly rate? What's your line of work cracking safes, stealing fine art?

No matter what a person does, if a company wants them to stay overnight then they pay, it most certainly doesn't come out of the workers wages. Fact i'm travelling for 6 hours on my own time pisses me off!

[wherebee]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

No matter what a person does, if a company wants them to stay overnight then they pay, it most certainly doesn't come out of the workers wages. Fact i'm travelling for 6 hours on my own time pisses me off!

i've sometimes paid extra if I wanted to stay somewhere longer after a work trip to enjoy it.  That's my limit.

[JMD]

18 hours ago, Hancock said:

Jesus fucken Christ, i've just "done the math", but it seems no one at the Treasury has bothered.

£400 billion in support / 2 million jobs saved = £200,000 per job.

Exactly, so why did we spend so much money per job?... Fwiw I think the 'sums' were in fact done, plus  for me this provides just more evidence that the OTT government policy response to Covid was not 'health related', it was an economic pile-in (maybe in response to the repo market failure six months earlier, however I don't pretend to have an informed opinion on these things). Btw for me that's why we got such weird cack-handed 'health protection policies' because from the start it was pure political pantomime.

[Starsend]

On 16/10/2021 at 10:05, Cattle Prod said:

The reason I've only recommended big companies on here is that's it's incredibly easy for small oil and gas companies to bullshit investors. I don't know if these guys are or not, I would have to do a lot of due diligence. That said this kind of bottom feeding old well squeezing business model is not unheard of, a private company called Perenco has been doing it for years, and made one of the richest families in France. I will say that the methane they talk about is the natural gas you burn on your hob, why don't they flare it? Leaking wells are a pita and should just be cemented up as a lot of nasties can come up with the methane, so look out for that.

I have only three small oil and gas companies in my portfolio, for a bit of fun and alpha, one has done very well so far. I know these companies inside out. While I also own all the big oil and gas companies. I don't apply this rigour to precious metals funnily enough, where I own about 50 small caps, who I know very little about. Its spray and pray, and I assume some will go bust etc. The reason is there simply isn't 50 oil and gas small caps available, the reason being capex needed for any of them to actually make money, or even drill an exploration well to strike lucky in. Much cheaper to drill for a silver seam in an old mine etc

Thanks cp, some good information there. I think I'll have a punt on them but keep it smaller than I'd initially intended. I've got a fair bit of exposure to Canadian mid-tiers/small caps and some of them have almost doubled for me now so need to top slice and put the money somewhere else hence my interest in dec.

[Starsend]

On 16/10/2021 at 10:24, Gin said:

Well done with the Camino Santiago too .That thing about walking is it helps to build confidence that filters through into everyday life.

Walks over 5/8 mile (say)  mostly anyone could do with just a reasonable fitness level . There is often a stage where the endorphins kick in and those natural highs are great.

If at times you feel low at work or home , you know those simple highs are only a ruck sack and a short drive away .

Sorry for any thread drift .

 

Thanks.

 

Completely agree. Think everybody has their 'activity'. For some it might be cycling or swimming, for me it's long distance hiking. Every time I feel low or stressed i go walk in nature and feel reset again.

[Starsend]

On 16/10/2021 at 11:18, DurhamBorn said:

I want everyone on this thread knocking on the door of the lifetime allowance by the time we are finished,and if they only have low capital well on the way to an amount they can be happy on.A lot depends on when they retire.I needed a lot because iv gone at 49 and 60% of assets outside of house and PMs are in my SIPP and i cant access for another 5 years so my income is coming off 40% of my assets at the moment,but thats fine.

If someone wants to go at 55 i think £200k in SIPP £100k ISA are do-able,but £250k SIPP £130k ISA better.Knack then is use tax allowance plus tax free cash uplift (16700 tax free a year) and re-invest divs in ISA etc.Lots of variables.

 

I reckon there's a good chance you'll achieve that for everyone. You've already set us all on the right course.

Completely agree with those figures, similar to my own and reckon they'll work just fine at 55.

Of course, not likely I'll jack it in for good at 55 and never work again - even one six month contract in the future would make a big difference to the pension pot.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

I reckon there's a good chance you'll achieve that for everyone. You've already set us all on the right course.

Completely agree with those figures, similar to my own and reckon they'll work just fine at 55.

Of course, not likely I'll jack it in for good at 55 and never work again - even one six month contract in the future would make a big difference to the pension pot.

Its pretty much what i'm aiming for .... if you've got that to fall back on and don't have to grab work ... then you can pick and choose the contract to suit your personality. 

 

 

[Starsend]

On 16/10/2021 at 13:58, ThoughtCriminal said:

I did the camino broke my foot and had to drop out 20 miles past pamplona. 

 

Best thing i ever did in my life though, never felt so free. 

That's pretty bad luck to suffer such a serious injury.

It's also the best thing I have ever done in my life, it was simply amazing. To meet so many people from all over the world, to push yourself to your physical limits, to see the beautiful Spanish countryside... I slept in a barn one night and ate a communal meal for a couple of quid in the farmhouse. Fabulous memories.

The feeling of freedom is like nothing I've experience since I was a boy, just you and your backpack, no idea where you're even going to stay that night.

Hope you do it again, the section through Rioja is amazing, endless wine fields and good rioja wine for a euro a bottle. I walked through a chilli field in Rioja, millions and millions of bloody chilli's ha.

I almost bloody cried when I saw Santiago in the distance after 500 bone breaking miles.

I'd recommend it to anybody, it can be life-changing.

 

 

[Starsend]

4 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Its pretty much what i'm aiming for .... if you've got that to fall back on and don't have to grab work ... then you can pick and choose the contract to suit your personality. 

 

 

Absolutely, and when you don't have to work and can pick and choose, tell shit bosses to fuck off, life becomes much more pleasant.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Starsend said:

 tell shit bosses to fuck off

I've been doing that all my life. But only having to work 2 weeks a year and knowing i won't need them for another 50 weeks will be liberating!

Flying and travelling for work is exhausting.

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02789-9?fbclid=IwAR0C7rurCyOVkFjBZrQbPZkoxAXNezP4pdmCRKIc2rKaKQim6-W6JMfHD5M

Think BAT will be just fine,im sure after 12,000 years ending up the biggest, a cash flow yield of around 8 is a tad low.

Its been happening since man evolved from an ape otherwise we still wouldn't be here....consider the three deadly sins, he/she picked up a piece of over ripe fruit and ate too many, then saw a member of the opposite sex and thought "Why not?", and after procreation they had to have something to smoke....won't go far wrong with investments based around these three sectors :-)

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Completely agree. Think everybody has their 'activity'. For some it might be cycling or swimming, for me it's long distance hiking. Every time I feel low or stressed i go walk in nature and feel reset again.

I have recently bought myself a drum kit, it was a choice of that or a rowing machine. The drums are much more fun.

[Lightscribe]

45 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I have recently bought myself a drum kit, it was a choice of that or a rowing machine. The drums are much more fun.

My outlet is sea fishing, and cardio training hitting punch bags, but I’m not allowed one in the home so use the works gym.

What’s good about sea fishing (from a tight fisted Dosbodder’s point of view) is that you don’t need a licence and you can take home what you catch (depending on size). Mackerel are always a certainty (on the south coast anyway) in the early evening/morning when the tides in, then one cut up for bait will bag a few Whiting or others. Lugworms can be got early doors from the sand with a bit of salt, and mackerel will bite on a fly or spinner.

The other bonus being on the end of a very long pier in a very unfashionable seaside resort, is no Londonister fuckers want to go and the benefiters don’t stray away from the off licences. Absolute bliss breathing in the sea breeze, on your own in pure relaxation on a sunny day.

[JMD]

Part2 interview with Neil Howe, part one was just him explaining his generational theory. His views chime with the thread, forced inflation for debt default, taking from creditors to give to debtors, monetary reset, more government, new 'strong' leaders, but still interesting to hear it from a theorist like Howe. He describes a difficult future but one that won't (quiet!?) completely come crashing down.                                            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eAuGfUli0gs

[SillyBilly]

On 15/10/2021 at 19:13, Lightscribe said:

Updated anecdotal. I flagged up early doors at the beginning of the year with shipping container costs rising with my brother’s company. My brothers manufacturing is now 90% based in the UK.

Well now units on his industrial estate are going bust at the pace of knots. The guy opposite my brothers unit which employed 26 staff for years and he paraded around in ever new R8’s, has just gone down the pan today. He was importing everything from gym equipment to phone covers from China yet he blames Brexit for the collapse of the whole company.

I can’t stress enough that this is the level of the economic illiteracy we are dealing with. This is still at the supplier side of costs and businesses going bust. Once this reverberates out to the consumer end it will be carnage. A 40 year disinflation cycle ending won’t leave many companies surviving.

 

I honestly don't know how some SME firms are surviving this inflation spike, liquidation bow wave coming perhaps.

I have a small business and at one point our cashflow was -£300k where we expected to be as our stock value went from £500k at start of the year up to £800k inside first 6-7 months of year. Inflation on basically everything we buy. Given we price quarterly at best in terms of contracts we were (and still are) constantly chasing this cash deficit. We pay 95% of our suppliers on the usual 30 day terms or so yet some of our biggest customers (Multi-nats) buy from us on 60 day terms (max we allow). So we have an entire quarter for instance of absorbing inflationary increases (and paying for them inside 30 days) BEFORE we can even move the price. Then when we do move the price we wait for 60 days to get paid for it. So we're in effect 5 months behind what is happening. But all that while prices continually go up so when we have adjusted our price in a new quarter it is behind the curve again and we're chasing across the same cycle. We have survived because we carry quite a bit of cash on the balance sheet relative to a lot of small businesses but this year has been a massive eye opener as to how easy it is to lose even a fundamentally profitable business due to inflation and cashflow.

I was talking to one of my customers (paints/industrial cleaning products) this last week who said 1st Jan 2022 it is a 25% increase on EVERYTHING he sells. It is that or curtains. I think the consumer has been sheltered from 90% of the inflation thus far as producers first waited to see if is was transitory (it isn't), then taken a hit with the speed in which they can move their own prices (supermarkets/retain chains can lock you in) and now they have no choice but to start passing every penny on as can't sustain any more cost increases.

We spend £4k a month on electricity and I am getting concerned this could be £5.5k a month by the time we come to renew within 24 months. Add on forthcoming business rates review (deferred originally due to COVID), a forthcoming 31.6% increase to our corporation tax which doesn't seem to have caught any attention from the public...from 19% to 25%. Our debts we have to pay AFTER we have posted a profit and paid tax on it so this is an issue. And an 11% increase to our employers NI bill (13.8% to 15.3% is an 11% increase in this tax). The government is raping us (SMEs) on the altar of the sacred NHS. Of course add in significant wage inflation, the aforementioned inflation across pretty much every business consumable and stock item and then you have the perfect storm. 

For the first time in years we saw INTRA month pricing on some commodities we buy this month. They won't even fix for a month before prices ramp up again. 

[JMD]

36 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

I honestly don't know how some SME firms are surviving this inflation spike, liquidation bow wave coming perhaps.

I have a small business and at one point our cashflow was -£300k where we expected to be as our stock value went from £500k at start of the year up to £800k inside first 6-7 months of year. Inflation on basically everything we buy. Given we price quarterly at best in terms of contracts we were (and still are) constantly chasing this cash deficit. We pay 95% of our suppliers on the usual 30 day terms or so yet some of our biggest customers (Multi-nats) buy from us on 60 day terms (max we allow). So we have an entire quarter for instance of absorbing inflationary increases (and paying for them inside 30 days) BEFORE we can even move the price. Then when we do move the price we wait for 60 days to get paid for it. So we're in effect 5 months behind what is happening. But all that while prices continually go up so when we have adjusted our price in a new quarter it is behind the curve again and we're chasing across the same cycle. We have survived because we carry quite a bit of cash on the balance sheet relative to a lot of small businesses but this year has been a massive eye opener as to how easy it is to lose even a fundamentally profitable business due to inflation and cashflow.

I was talking to one of my customers (paints/industrial cleaning products) this last week who said 1st Jan 2022 it is a 25% increase on EVERYTHING he sells. It is that or curtains. I think the consumer has been sheltered from 90% of the inflation thus far as producers first waited to see if is was transitory (it isn't), then taken a hit with the speed in which they can move their own prices (supermarkets/retain chains can lock you in) and now they have no choice but to start passing every penny on as can't sustain any more cost increases.

We spend £4k a month on electricity and I am getting concerned this could be £5.5k a month by the time we come to renew within 24 months. Add on forthcoming business rates review (deferred originally due to COVID), a forthcoming 31.6% increase to our corporation tax which doesn't seem to have caught any attention from the public...from 19% to 25%. Our debts we have to pay AFTER we have posted a profit and paid tax on it so this is an issue. And an 11% increase to our employers NI bill (13.8% to 15.3% is an 11% increase in this tax). The government is raping us (SMEs) on the altar of the sacred NHS. Of course add in significant wage inflation, the aforementioned inflation across pretty much every business consumable and stock item and then you have the perfect storm. 

For the first time in years we saw INTRA month pricing on some commodities we buy this month. They won't even fix for a month before prices ramp up again. 

SillyBilly, thanks for sharing the information. I dont know which sector your in, but you talk about being raped by government - so do you think your particular sme might ultimately get 'sacrificed' for the benefit of the larger corporates? Im afraid that is how I see the trend going, and to paraphrase the Olympian ideal - bigger-but slower-higher(ie more corporatist!)... I don't frame that question to be mere doom and gloom, it's just that many on here recently have spoken about how they changed their own (stressful, etc) businesses by becoming small/one man/niche operations, and since doing so have never looked back.

[SillyBilly]

5 minutes ago, JMD said:

SillyBilly, thanks for sharing the information. I dont know which sector your in, but you talk about being raped by government - so do you think your particular sme might ultimately get 'sacrificed' for the benefit of the larger corporates? Im afraid that is how I see the trend going, and to paraphrase the Olympian ideal - bigger-but slower-higher(ie more corporatist!)... I don't frame that question to be mere doom and gloom, it's just that many on here recently have spoken about how they changed their own (stressful, etc) businesses by becoming small/one man/niche operations, and since doing so have never looked back.

We manufacture rather specialist adhesives, paints, lubricants & liquid construction chemicals. Not many of us left anymore as the expertise/business has all gone abroad with cheaper imports.

I expect we will be fine (well fine enough for long enough for me to get the money out I'd need), the 1st hit is always the hardest due to a) delay in responding then 2) the lag of being able to implement/capture the inflation. Now 1) is unlikely to repeat as once bitten twice shy n' all. 

We're a 168 year old business (I bought out the previous owner/MD) and the market casualties over the last 10-15 years suggest that is the way the economy is going; both in terms of government disinterest in UK manufacturing and also, as you say, rising influence of corporatism. Incidentally, we once had 8+ competitors, now down to 3 of us left in UK (tells a story about UK manufacturing in itself) - I expect we're strong enough to see off one other and then there'll be 2 of us in a death match. In the short term at least exiting competition strengthens the survivors, arguably what has sustained us over the past 20 years...until it comes for you too. I am a realist about the whole thing. Intention is to have no debt in 3-4 years (on track even despite the latest challenges) and own the land/site, that rents to the business (held by a separate entity) itself for £100k a year so providing I can pay everything off that'll do the job for me, I can just rent the site out and join the rentier scum, doing "f" all but living off someone elses' hard work. It is very sad though as I am very passionate about what is left of UK manufacturing and feel the government basically shits on SMEs in this sector. No help in anything (vs other countries which do support) and also domiciled to pay tax on everything the gov/local authority throws at us.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, SillyBilly said:

I honestly don't know how some SME firms are surviving this inflation spike, liquidation bow wave coming perhaps.

I have a small business and at one point our cashflow was -£300k where we expected to be as our stock value went from £500k at start of the year up to £800k inside first 6-7 months of year. Inflation on basically everything we buy. Given we price quarterly at best in terms of contracts we were (and still are) constantly chasing this cash deficit. We pay 95% of our suppliers on the usual 30 day terms or so yet some of our biggest customers (Multi-nats) buy from us on 60 day terms (max we allow). So we have an entire quarter for instance of absorbing inflationary increases (and paying for them inside 30 days) BEFORE we can even move the price. Then when we do move the price we wait for 60 days to get paid for it. So we're in effect 5 months behind what is happening. But all that while prices continually go up so when we have adjusted our price in a new quarter it is behind the curve again and we're chasing across the same cycle. We have survived because we carry quite a bit of cash on the balance sheet relative to a lot of small businesses but this year has been a massive eye opener as to how easy it is to lose even a fundamentally profitable business due to inflation and cashflow.

I was talking to one of my customers (paints/industrial cleaning products) this last week who said 1st Jan 2022 it is a 25% increase on EVERYTHING he sells. It is that or curtains. I think the consumer has been sheltered from 90% of the inflation thus far as producers first waited to see if is was transitory (it isn't), then taken a hit with the speed in which they can move their own prices (supermarkets/retain chains can lock you in) and now they have no choice but to start passing every penny on as can't sustain any more cost increases.

We spend £4k a month on electricity and I am getting concerned this could be £5.5k a month by the time we come to renew within 24 months. Add on forthcoming business rates review (deferred originally due to COVID), a forthcoming 31.6% increase to our corporation tax which doesn't seem to have caught any attention from the public...from 19% to 25%. Our debts we have to pay AFTER we have posted a profit and paid tax on it so this is an issue. And an 11% increase to our employers NI bill (13.8% to 15.3% is an 11% increase in this tax). The government is raping us (SMEs) on the altar of the sacred NHS. Of course add in significant wage inflation, the aforementioned inflation across pretty much every business consumable and stock item and then you have the perfect storm. 

For the first time in years we saw INTRA month pricing on some commodities we buy this month. They won't even fix for a month before prices ramp up again. 

There it is from the horses mouth.Remember when i said they needed to lift everything by 30%?,well there is your customer saying 25% straight price increase.

There is a lot coming in this cycle,massive damage and huge changes.Distribution cycles rip finances apart.My roadmap is telling me by 2029 prices will be 63% higher than last March,but for many costs will increase even more.

Where we are now is for lots of companies margins to be wiped out.Then price increase,but only some of the margin recovered.Sales will fall in around 6 months,then rise around a year later for survivors.

The critical part is if government deal with welfare spending and government worker costs including pensions.If they dont this cycle we are entering ends in systemic collapse.There is a small risk of it happening before that.

This budget will be critical to see if the government actually understand this.Watch for welfare uplifts,they usually go up with September CPI,if he does that they understand nothing,if he increased below inflation they know.

There is a huge risk once the BOE stops QE the government simply go after capital.

[Noallegiance]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

There it is from the horses mouth.Remember when i said they needed to lift everything by 30%?,well there is your customer saying 25% straight price increase.

There is a lot coming in this cycle,massive damage and huge changes.Distribution cycles rip finances apart.My roadmap is telling me by 2029 prices will be 63% higher than last March,but for many costs will increase even more.

Where we are now is for lots of companies margins to be wiped out.Then price increase,but only some of the margin recovered.Sales will fall in around 6 months,then rise around a year later for survivors.

The critical part is if government deal with welfare spending and government worker costs including pensions.If they dont this cycle we are entering ends in systemic collapse.There is a small risk of it happening before that.

This budget will be critical to see if the government actually understand this.Watch for welfare uplifts,they usually go up with September CPI,if he does that they understand nothing,if he increased below inflation they know.

There is a huge risk once the BOE stops QE the government simply go after capital.

Although the last 18 months have sucked, in the mid to long term it's the perfect cover for government to start digging their way out of this. They need to put their PR business partners in overdrive.