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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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19 minutes ago, Animal Spirits said:

O/T

They likely have better control and treatment of the wastewater sources of P.

Typically a coagulant such as Ferric Sulphate is dosed to increase the solids removal efficiency in primary settlement. This eventually leaves a residual P but also Iron in the effluent both of which usually have maximum permitted values.

Why does that stop me building a house, though?

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On 24/10/2021 at 17:23, spygirl said:

I dont think they are, not the proper Jap way of Jit/lean.

Jit was about reducing suppliers to a small number, ensuring you were never at the mercy of one. Then working with those suppliers so both companies move forward. Working on process, product, blurting the lines between there sales channel and your inventory.

Western manufacturer esp US car makers followed the now v discredited Welsch way of fucking over suppliers and, frankly, dumping on them.

That's fine along as a supplier cannot go elsewhere - until the supplier goes bust, which happens.

Whats happened is that semi have made up more more of cars, becoming the critical component.

If carcos had a grown up, professional relationship with semifabs then they have kept their production option open, maybe asking for some leeway, which would have been ok.

Instead they cancelled everything, withdrawing from their production production capacity quotas, so semifab, which are far far better run than carcos, sold that capacity.

 

 

Semi (joke) connected.

Tesla soars past $1tn in market value

First carmaker to reach milestone after major order from Hertz for electric vehicles

https://www.ft.com/content/4eb7504e-94ef-4f99-937d-807aa159b282

Dammit. Tgry not done tge chart as an image.

Tesla is as large as the other top nine leading carmakers combined

 

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2 hours ago, stoobs said:

How do we onshore stuff that’s been made abroad for a few decades? If the previous owners of those skills are retired or dead I mean.

Easy,most of the stuff is easy to make,piss easy,it was only offshored because of low wages.Most of the technical stuff is still done here.Within 3 miles of my house we now have a factory making TVs (CELLO) and one making washing machines (Ebac).When i went back to an old employer earlier in the year we were having to stop the lines for gaskets,valves etc.Simple stuff.Blue chips will lead the onshoring.

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Animal Spirits
5 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Why does that stop me building a house, though?

It seems to be an issue impacting all sizes of developments depending on the region where planning permission can only be granted if the nutrient neutrality is achieved based on an assessment, some info here for the Solent:

https://www.push.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Non-Technical-Summary-June-2020.pdf

And for your area:

https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/news/nutrient-neutrality

So a large development may get approval if the receiving treatment plants are upgraded and a self build with its own package treatment plant may need to be more sophisticated than before or the difference offset. The practicalities of achieving this for small developments is mentioned in the first link above:

3.4 It is recognised that achieving nutrient neutrality may be difficult for smaller developments, developments on brownfield land, or developments that are well-progressed in the planning system. Natural England is working closely with local planning authorities to progress Borough / District / City / Authority wide and more strategic options. A number of options are coming forward and discussions with the relevant local planning authorities are recommended.

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

We've never made phones or computers on a grand scale in the UK, would have to pay Chinamen to come over and show how its done.

With regards to heavy industry its more a case would enough British men be willing to get their perfectly manicured hands a little dirty, if not we'd have to import more EE's ... but its also if companies are able/willing to pay say a grand a week to  dirty northerners who swear a lot ... with the management class having to take a pay cut or get the sack to subsidise this.

Most heavy industry companies i see in England seem to have a dozen office workers for each person doing the manual work.

If you pay enough so that it buys a modest life, say a 3 bed semi and  holiday once a year, ya know, like wot it used to be, there'd be no shortage of takers. Never was, just people unwilling to work for fuck all.

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2 hours ago, stoobs said:

How do we onshore stuff that’s been made abroad for a few decades? If the previous owners of those skills are retired or dead I mean.

We learn.

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interesting comment from Lyn ALden in her newsletter

'The energy sector is coming back up off of its lowest-ever 2% contribution to the index, but still remains extremely low at 3%. I think that sector could double to 6% or more over the next decade after a strong period of outperformance going forward, and it will have paid out above-average dividend yields during that journey as well. I wrote about my bullish view on oil and gas this past summer, and indeed this autumn we’ve been seeing energy shortages in Europe and rising energy prices everywhere. I think that trend will have dips and surges but that it will persist deeper into the decade. Materials and financials could each increase by a point or two, and healthcare could certainly represent a bit more more than it does now considering the world’s aging demographics.'image.thumb.png.dfe78abe2c64bd76fadaef61b5949150.png

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2 hours ago, stoobs said:

How do we onshore stuff that’s been made abroad for a few decades? If the previous owners of those skills are retired or dead I mean.

Most stuff that's been offshored is just electronics assembly.

Theres nothing complex really to the processes. 

They started off with cheap n nimble fingers(labour) , moving to v expensive pick n place machines (capital).

Off shoring started off when the East was much cheaper than the US/Europe and stuff like tellies, vids, were composed of many fiddly bits n bobs.

Heres a crt, looks 80s-

crt.jpg

Eurgh, lots of analogue n the circuits to tweak them.

Heres s a mid 90s computer-

6ec5309c-448c-405b-800b-62dfdf8a8f39.jpg

Bit better. Lot less discrete components, more semis.

Heres a 2020s computer, which is equivalent to a few 100s of the 90s computer and drives an LCD

raspberry-pi-4-labelled@2x-e74ce2a910b35

You dont need lots of cheap nimble fingers. A pick n place can make and test that.

Count the components. Not even decoupling caps on the signal lines anymore.

Couple of pull up n downs. 

You can run a production line that'll finish those off and put in a box, untouched by humans.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

We've never made phones or computers on a grand scale in the UK, would have to pay Chinamen to come over and show how its done.

With regards to heavy industry its more a case would enough British men be willing to get their perfectly manicured hands a little dirty, if not we'd have to import more EE's ... but its also if companies are able/willing to pay say a grand a week to  dirty northerners who swear a lot ... with the management class having to take a pay cut or get the sack to subsidise this.

Most heavy industry companies i see in England seem to have a dozen office workers for each person doing the manual work.

Yes we have.

Dundee timex factory made zx spectrums.

http://womenshistoryscotland.org/2019/10/29/the-rise-and-fall-of-timex-dundee-bbc-scotland-15-october-2019/l

Spango valley made loads of IBM stuff,Inc PCs, fir Europe.

http://catchingphotons.co.uk/blog/industrial/ibm-greenock/

In terms of heavy industry -

JCB-large-folio-1000x550.jpg

Tractors up around Lincoln.

0_RJ-R_TEM_260219Ultrafan_01JPG.jpg

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

On energy demand remember there will be huge onshoring of production.Building up the supply chain will use much more energy,and i expect China to consume much more as well.This cycle has structural needs that wont be affected by price signals.$200 oil at some point,maybe $300.

Water.

Industry needs lakes of water, normally fresh too.

Heavy industrybeyon assembly  isnt viable in most of Europe - too expensive or too dry.

UK is better.

 

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34 minutes ago, Starsend said:

We learn.

We speak English as a first language.

More n more of business, inc processes is documented in soley English- its the only language that makes sense.

 Now imagine have a plant, sourcing components from several suppliers and assembling them.

 

 

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9 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Agree, the fact that they can pour a slab and then maintain planning permission for an extensive period of time is wrong. I feel they should have a maximum of three years to complete [as per original permission granted] or their application/permission becomes 'null and void'. I know the local council can [if they want to] issue a completion notice after 12 months of the building start, but this is open to 'local' abuse i.e. having friends on the committee.

Its worse than that, my fault perhaps for using 'plot' when in fact what happens is the big house builders buy large tracts of land that don't really have a chance of planning at time of purchase, however holding say 20 similar tracts of land for up to 20 years means eventually one or more of these speculations pay off handsomely. 

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1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Most stuff that's been offshored is just electronics assembly.

Theres nothing complex really to the processes. 

They started off with cheap n nimble fingers(labour) , moving to v expensive pick n place machines (capital).

Off shoring started off when the East was much cheaper than the US/Europe and stuff like tellies, vids, were composed of many fiddly bits n bobs.

Heres a crt, looks 80s-

crt.jpg

Eurgh, lots of analogue n the circuits to tweak them.

Heres s a mid 90s computer-

6ec5309c-448c-405b-800b-62dfdf8a8f39.jpg

Bit better. Lot less discrete components, more semis.

Heres a 2020s computer, which is equivalent to a few 100s of the 90s computer and drives an LCD

raspberry-pi-4-labelled@2x-e74ce2a910b35

You dont need lots of cheap nimble fingers. A pick n place can make and test that.

Count the components. Not even decoupling caps on the signal lines anymore.

Couple of pull up n downs. 

You can run a production line that'll finish those off and put in a box, untouched by humans.

 

 

Most of the Raspberry Pis are made in the U.K. 

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I think you'll get your chance, Hancock. It won't go up in a straight line. The trick is being convinced enough to buy when everyone is hating it again and laughing at the bulls.

Yes i can see it all imploding, the economy seems to be running on last years handouts, how long that goes on for is what we're waiting to find out.

Daves BK now seems to be based on sentiment, and that like lemmings everyone will follow each other out the market once it becomes apparent the FED won't print anymore.

With whats gone on, i can't but help think its inevitable the FED drops a load more helicopter money to fight the next tranche of deflation.

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6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'd ignore him Sancho, he lost the plot over Covid and has been badly wrong. I called him out on it, he blocked me. He's now a Twitter meme...

image.png.4fb5efe37d3e25d218c285dc54020299.png

I expect US production to roll over when the DUCs are used up, March/April. I finally worked out how they managed to have such a 'technological breakthrough' in drilling over Covid, the EIA is counting the DUC production into 'per rig' numbers, even though they didn't drill the DUC wells. If they don't double the rig fleet in the next 6 months, it'll fall. You can even see that they are completing crappier and crappier wells, as the per rig rate is trailing off.

image.png.fd4231f7df009436af99d531a725d472.png

image.png.de39f335f83c85aa02c611f001b3a8c9.png

 

You can see how the 'per rig' rate jumps up in April '20, with reported DUCs nosediving a month later. Nice sleight of hand guys, I wonder will XOM get sued for what they said in the investor call about 'technological drilling breakthrough' etc etc.

Plus he doesn't like (hates?) nuclear! Though imo rather weakly he mainly frames his argument around the 'court of public opinion being against nuclear', so giving himself an 'easy get out' if politicians themselves should change their minds and policy on nuclear. For an energy commentator who frequently Berman says he is a realist and pays very close attention to the data, I find his writting off of nuclear peculiar. 

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6 hours ago, stoobs said:

Just mix them in a bowl, then into the microwave for 3 minutes for a tasty treat?

Sounds nice. Please clarify whether I should use as pizza topping or pie filling?

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Bobthebuilder
1 hour ago, JMD said:

Sounds nice. Please clarify whether I should use as pizza topping or pie filling?

I think its an homage to maggie t, egg on toast for breakfast and sardines on toast for tea.

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I think its an homage to maggie t, egg on toast for breakfast and sardines on toast for tea.

and toast for lunch. With egg and sardines on it.

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I still don’t understand this wage inflation and tax increase approach U.K. gov’ is pursuing. Or is it the re-balancing between workers and benefits. If that is the case it will certainly create some very vocal people. I was surprised that they suspended the triple lock on the state pension.

Oh as an aside I can’t see the gov not lifting the cap on council tax bills. The question is if they set a cap I might deduce that this is the new inflation target e.g 5%. No cap and we get Councils increasing bills by mind bending rates.

 

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8 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Most of the Raspberry Pis are made in the U.K. 

I know. i was using it as an example of how simple modern electronics is.

 

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9 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

If the top doesnt come soon then its confirmation that we now live in the Matrix

 

 

Remind me, has this company `turned` a profit yet?...like the 2000s tech bubble over again.

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