Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Honestly where else on the net could you get info like this? 

6 months (on a rotation) of getting paid £500 a day to play online poker ... was magic!

[HousePriceMania]

25 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

This feels ominous.

it does seem a little bit....sharp

[Loki]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

it does seem a little bit....sharp

Ees no problem.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

Coal loses almost 1/3rd of its value in a morning.

COP21 has already achieved something by bashing coal, well done Boris for making it cheaper!

[Hancock]

12 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

COP21 has already achieved something by bashing coal, well done Boris for making it cheaper!

You'll upset Greta.

Anyway does anyone have the correct SEDOL for Telefonica Brasil ... i've got a choice of 3 on AJBell.

[RWJ]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Too be honest understanding Brasil divis is one of the worlds mysteries.They seem to have two parts.One part is the normal divi that has no withholding tax then another they seem to work out monthly called interest on capital that is taxed.

I think on the 2nd it adds up until it goes ex div,but im not 100% on how it works.The only real way is to hold over a 12 month period and see what arrives.My TEF Brasil div iv only had one and it was 80% of what i had worked out.Not sure if that was tax on the monthly interest on capital or the way it adds up.Id love to actually know how it works if anyone feels like contacting their stock exchange or some way.

Not sure if folks are aware but there's a draft proposal to introduce a Brazil WHT (15%) on divs from Jan 2022.  As far as I know it hasn't been confirmed yet.

https://www.taxathand.com/article/18851/Brazil/2021/Draft-tax-reform-bill-introduces-dividend-WHT-and-reduced-corporate-tax-rate 

[jamtomorrow]

45 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

So the chip must account for about 50% of this cars value then! :-)

Tempting to speculate whether it would be possible to build a car without chips and still meet regs (especially: emissions).

Mechanical carburettors and vacuum dizzies were wonderfully elegant in their day, but I can't imagine you'd get very far on modern regs without a lambda sensor and the ability to fine-tune fuel and ignition to every possible set of operating conditions.

And I can't see them relaxing regs (or, for that matter, digging up all that old magic).

[Froggy2000]

12 minutes ago, Hancock said:

You'll upset Greta.

Anyway does anyone have the correct SEDOL for Telefonica Brasil ... i've got a choice of 3 on AJBell.

I asked a similar question a while back and the conclusion was Telefonica Brasil wasn't available through A J Bell.  If you search through my posts you should be able to find it.  If you find things have changed since then please let us know! 

[Hancock]

2 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

I asked a similar question a while back and the conclusion was Telefonica Brasil wasn't available through A J Bell.  If you search through my posts you should be able to find it.  If you find things have changed since then please let us know! 

Ive called them in the past and got the SEDOL for Yamana and TIM Brasil (BK531P5).

[MrXxxx]

28 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Mechanical carburettors and vacuum dizzies were wonderfully elegant in their day, but I can't imagine you'd get very far on modern regs without a lambda sensor and the ability to fine-tune fuel and ignition to every possible set of operating conditions

I think you could, the only thing is that you would have to keep on top of the maintenance as the carb wears...basically all Lambda sensors are doing is what a mechanic would do i.e. as the 'carb' wears the mixture changes, so the 'mechanic' has to adjust it to allow for this.

[Axeman123]

Crazy prices for used enthusiast cars have been a thing for a while now. Two youtubers with large car collections that have talked a lot about it are now selling up (Hoovie and Tavarish). Sign of a top?

 

[Option5]

37 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Tempting to speculate whether it would be possible to build a car without chips and still meet regs (especially: emissions).

Mechanical carburettors and vacuum dizzies were wonderfully elegant in their day, but I can't imagine you'd get very far on modern regs without a lambda sensor and the ability to fine-tune fuel and ignition to every possible set of operating conditions.

And I can't see them relaxing regs (or, for that matter, digging up all that old magic).

To put it all into perspective, the original Formula One turbo era engine management computers ran on 8088 processors. 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Anyone taking Petrofac up on their open offer? I'm leaning towards doing so - a nice discount on an already battered share.

Depends on a) your current average, b) if you think they won't drop further, and c) if the extra capital invested here will perform better than elsewhere.

Remember, if you don't want to invest in further shares it may be worth `accepting` the offer to buy @1.15 on 8th and selling the same amount now @~1.30, thus making 15p per share BUT as always DYOR. 

EDIT Just seen @planit reply :-)

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

COP21 has already achieved something by bashing coal, well done Boris for making it cheaper!

Oil tomorrow 

[ThoughtCriminal]

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record: what the fucking fuck?? 🤦‍♂️

 

C'mon man! 

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record: what the fucking fuck?? 🤦‍♂️

I am starting to wonder if this is the melt-up already. If this isn't mania, what is?

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

I am starting to wonder if this is the melt-up already. If this isn't mania, what is?

P/E 381

 

There's no such thing as hyperbole when describing Tesla. 

 

 

[kibuc]

54 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

At the risk of sounding like a stuck record: what the fucking fuck?? 🤦‍♂️

 

C'mon man! 

 

Tesla is 2017 bitcoin, there's no point in trying to understand it, the only decision to make is whether you want to be a part of it or not, without wondering what "it" actually is.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, kibuc said:

 

Tesla is 2017 bitcoin, there's no point in trying to understand it, the only decision to make is whether you want to be a part of it or not, without wondering what "it" actually is.

AKA "I like the stock"

[Majorpain]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

Wow, the specialist knowledge base on here is phenomenal. To think what thread this forum is named after...

I wouldn't say specialist, I just have knack of finding out useful information!  Google fu and sum of all human knowledge though WWW makes it very easy.

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

I am starting to wonder if this is the melt-up already. If this isn't mania, what is?

My entire office is crypto crazy.

Definitely mania stage.

They spray and pray on whatever the latest Reddit fashion is.

They all know it's a mania, too.

This century's tulip bulbs.

[JimmyTheBruce]

7 hours ago, Hancock said:

Coal loses almost 1/3rd of its value in a morning.

...and Peabody is still up 2% for the day 

[muck]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Too be honest understanding Brasil divis is one of the worlds mysteries.They seem to have two parts.One part is the normal divi that has no withholding tax then another they seem to work out monthly called interest on capital that is taxed.

I think on the 2nd it adds up until it goes ex div,but im not 100% on how it works.The only real way is to hold over a 12 month period and see what arrives.My TEF Brasil div iv only had one and it was 80% of what i had worked out.Not sure if that was tax on the monthly interest on capital or the way it adds up.Id love to actually know how it works if anyone feels like contacting their stock exchange or some way.

Hi DB,

I spent a decade in Brazil in the late nineties and noughties and can confirm that everything to do with tax there is an absolute minefield. Here's my (unqualified) take on what may be happening with your TEF dividends.

In Brazil, publicly traded companies are legally obliged to distribute at least 25% of their net profits amongst shareholders. They do this either through dividends as we know them (DIVs), or another form of dividend called "Juros sobre Capital Próprio". This may appear as JCP or JSCP in the literature.

DIVs are not taxed because the company has already paid tax on its profits before issuing them.

JCPs are an accountancy trick that went mainstream in the nineties. The JCP dividend was entered into the books as an expense with the company thereby reducing its tax burden. Like you discovered, the word "juros" means "interest", i.e. they were making it out to be an interest payment as if the shareholding were a corporate bond. And of course, interest rates were sky high then (still are, but comparatively lower). But the state wasn't to be denied and so the shareholder ended up paying 15% on their JCPs.

Companies might pay out in dividends, JCPs or a mixture of both as long as the JCPs don't exceed 50% of the net profit, whereas AFAIK the DIV has no such limits. It seems to vary from company to company. Just had a quick look and in the case of Telefonica Brasil, dividends were scheduled for the year as follows:

Histórico de Dividendos VIVT3
Data Com    R$    Pagamento    Tipo
15/04/2021     0.9404     05/10/2021     DIV
28/12/2020     0.7108     05/10/2021     DIV
28/12/2020     0.1540     13/07/2021     JCP
27/11/2020     0.2369     13/07/2021     JCP
28/09/2020     0.3610     13/07/2021     JCP
30/06/2020     0.4998     13/07/2021     JCP
31/03/2020     0.0833     13/07/2021     JCP
28/02/2020     0.1499     13/07/2021     JCP

Two normal dividends and six JCPs lumped into two payouts in October and July respectively. "Data Com" is Cum-Dividend, or the Record Date. So depending on when you bought, the DIVs would have arrived as shown, but for the JCPs you'd take 15% off, e.g. 0.1540 BRL/share would be 0.1309 etc.

PS Note that all the above may soon be obsolete as there is a bill on its way to the Senate which may or may not change the rates of taxation on dividends and may or may not put more emphasis on taxation of the shareholder side of things. Never a dull moment in Brazil.

PPS First post, I've had nothing to contribute but been here most days since day one. Huge thanks to everyone for the best thread on the internet by a country mile.

[Don Coglione]

9 minutes ago, muck said:

Hi DB,

I spent a decade in Brazil in the late nineties and noughties and can confirm that everything to do with tax there is an absolute minefield. Here's my (unqualified) take on what may be happening with your TEF dividends.

In Brazil, publicly traded companies are legally obliged to distribute at least 25% of their net profits amongst shareholders. They do this either through dividends as we know them (DIVs), or another form of dividend called "Juros sobre Capital Próprio". This may appear as JCP or JSCP in the literature.

DIVs are not taxed because the company has already paid tax on its profits before issuing them.

JCPs are an accountancy trick that went mainstream in the nineties. The JCP dividend was entered into the books as an expense with the company thereby reducing its tax burden. Like you discovered, the word "juros" means "interest", i.e. they were making it out to be an interest payment as if the shareholding were a corporate bond. And of course, interest rates were sky high then (still are, but comparatively lower). But the state wasn't to be denied and so the shareholder ended up paying 15% on their JCPs.

Companies might pay out in dividends, JCPs or a mixture of both as long as the JCPs don't exceed 50% of the net profit, whereas AFAIK the DIV has no such limits. It seems to vary from company to company. Just had a quick look and in the case of Telefonica Brasil, dividends were scheduled for the year as follows:

Histórico de Dividendos VIVT3
Data Com    R$    Pagamento    Tipo
15/04/2021     0.9404     05/10/2021     DIV
28/12/2020     0.7108     05/10/2021     DIV
28/12/2020     0.1540     13/07/2021     JCP
27/11/2020     0.2369     13/07/2021     JCP
28/09/2020     0.3610     13/07/2021     JCP
30/06/2020     0.4998     13/07/2021     JCP
31/03/2020     0.0833     13/07/2021     JCP
28/02/2020     0.1499     13/07/2021     JCP

Two normal dividends and six JCPs lumped into two payouts in October and July respectively. "Data Com" is Cum-Dividend, or the Record Date. So depending on when you bought, the DIVs would have arrived as shown, but for the JCPs you'd take 15% off, e.g. 0.1540 BRL/share would be 0.1309 etc.

PS Note that all the above may soon be obsolete as there is a bill on its way to the Senate which may or may not change the rates of taxation on dividends and may or may not put more emphasis on taxation of the shareholder side of things. Never a dull moment in Brazil.

PPS First post, I've had nothing to contribute but been here most days since day one. Huge thanks to everyone for the best thread on the internet by a country mile.

Wow, if that's your first post, imagine how good it'll be when you get the hang of things!

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

I blame DB for not telling us to buy a wheat ETF 😒