Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Animal Spirits]

Podcast time, all available on multiple platforms:

Gregory Copley: Coup Season In Africa, China Can’t Go To War, West Becoming Soviet Union

https://www.podbean.com/ew/dir-k9y27-110f092a

Daniel Yergin, Vice-Chair of IHS Markit I ‘An Energy Transition in Three Corresponding Acts’ Part I

https://www.podbean.com/ew/pb-hxbwg-1132d10

What Happened to the American Economy & How to Fix It | Julius Krein

https://www.podbean.com/ew/dir-scfun-1140ba95

The comparison of investment requirements between telecoms and tech companies in this one.

[Loki]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Because im good at this 

Asia's expansion of production was dis-inflationary.As they turn to consumption as the west pulls back supply its hugely inflationary.

Silver might not go there,but along with uranium and natural gas its at a price that could look very very silly looking back in the future.

Its a no brainer to me to own a good chunk.£10ks worth,even £5k could be the difference between being fine and the poor house for ordinary people.Bigger holdings could provide huge capital right at the top of the cycle.

What are your plans for selling?  Would you just do a dealer buy-back or sell privately? 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, planit said:

Got it, sorry my misunderstanding but I assumed you were looking from a shareholder perspective and referring to market cap.

I would have removed the intangibles from the top and bottom of the equation though, seems a bit unfair removing from equity but not assets.

So (equity-intangibles)/(total assets - intangibles)

 

Your FD friend is correct in theory but in practice you are using it to simplify your share selection which is fine (main downside I can see is you end up with a less diversified portfolio), it is easier to hide rubbish in intangibles and more subjective for the valuation.

agrred on the bit in bold,.I know your an accoutnant.What's your take on goodwill and intangibles?

I tend to be a bit more forgiving with companies that have hosuehold names and the like in terms of value attached to say a trademark.So Vodafone yes,Carillion no.Patents are of value so if it's a techy industry they might be of some worth but M&S msot likely not.

It's a difficult area which is why I use a butchers knife and generally ignore it.You need to deep dive to value thsoe thigns and I wouldnt know where to start.

[Animal Spirits]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

If i had 20k id gamble on their being a huge stock market crash and go balls deep then!

But how do you see silver going to $200 when circa £47 is the highest its ever been and that was just briefly.

Just to play devils advocate, Asia has been on a 3 decade manufacturing and infrastructure binge, and its averaged closer to $16/17 in the last 10 years.

 https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver

 

Silver to the Stratosphere

By Emil Kalinowski, Manager, Metals Market Research, Wheaton Precious Metals International

“The greener the car, the more silver it’ll use. An internal combustion engine car uses 15 to 28 grams of silver, while a hybrid uses 18 to 34 and a fully electric vehicle has 25 to 50”.

“Speculative demand”, I answered. “By that I mean exchange traded funds, commodity exchanges and dealer inventories. If you add all those up, I anticipate an average deficit of 107 Moz every year through 2025”.

https://www.sbma.org.sg/media-centre/publication/crucible-issue-19/silver-to-the-stratosphere/

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

We'll look at that, actions have consequences.

 

Dosbods lads holiday in Turkey? 😂

They do cheap hair transplants another dosbods curse sorted and even cheaper now 

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Shouldn't your lad have more input on your allocation, as it's his inheritance money? If you leave money on the table, it might be a bit like you blowing it on a cruise to him.

Iv got a will trust set up for him and his sisters  if i die and they are married they can leave in trust then if a divorce etc they dont lose anything.Trusts are wonderful things.

[DurhamBorn]

37 minutes ago, Loki said:

What are your plans for selling?  Would you just do a dealer buy-back or sell privately? 

If i ever sold physical probably in the back room of Chards in Blackpool then out on the razz to The Flagship.Or if over 60 Spoons

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

If i ever sold physical probably in the back room of Chards in Blackpool then out on the razz to The Flagship.Or if over 60 Spoons

 But seriously, I was thinking more in terms of capital controls/regulation, any concerns there?  In those circumstances I would hope it reverts to being money but I'm not convinced the general population would go for it.

[M S E Refugee]

I've just bought over a 115oz of Sterling Silver off eBay in the last week.

I timed the purchase impeccably just before the drop.

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've just bought over a 115oz of Sterling Silver off eBay in the last week.

I timed the purchase impeccably just before the drop.

isn't ebay a haven for scammers?  you get a box of bricks instead
?

[M S E Refugee]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

isn't ebay a haven for scammers?  you get a box of bricks instead
?

I have never had any problems.

I only buy Sterling Silver all Hallmarked.

[Kilham]

Not had one of these for a couple of months but prices are only going one way it seems.

Quote

Dear Customer,

Due to a number of extenuating circumstances including extreme volatility in the raw materials market, increasing transport costs and also large increases in the price of packaging, XXX LTD are having to undertake another price review.

This being the case, we are forced to increase our current pricing on all Polyester Resins, Gelcoats and Bonding Pastes. These increases will become effective as of 1st December 2021.

All Polyester Resin – 6% Increase.
Gelcoat, Topcoat and Bonding Paste – 7% Increase.

Please be assured that XXX LTD are working extremely hard with their manufacturing partners to minimise these fluctuations in prices. Unfortunately, due to the speed of the increases being reported to us, we are unable to absorb these costs and have been forced to pass some of them on to our customers.

If you have any questions regarding the specifics of these changes, please get in touch with your Account Representative, who will be happy to help answer your concerns.

Your sincerely,

 

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

We'll look at that, actions have consequences.

 

Dosbods lads holiday in Turkey? 😂

Slightly off topic but Erdogan has probably guaranteed failure of the ECB /Euto.

All Germans, Nordics n Brits will be holidaying in Turkey - esp Germans, they are feeling the price rises.

Spain n Itsly are totally fucked. It's looking like 3 summers trade down the shitter.

[Don Coglione]

3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Slightly off topic but Erdogan has probably guaranteed failure of the ECB /Euto.

All Germans, Nordics n Brits will be holidaying in Turkey - esp Germans, they are feeling the price rises.

Spain n Itsly are totally fucked. It's looking like 3 summers trade down the shitter.

Up the shitter, surely? @King Penda

[planit]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

agrred on the bit in bold,.I know your an accoutnant.What's your take on goodwill and intangibles?

I tend to be a bit more forgiving with companies that have hosuehold names and the like in terms of value attached to say a trademark.So Vodafone yes,Carillion no.Patents are of value so if it's a techy industry they might be of some worth but M&S msot likely not.

It's a difficult area which is why I use a butchers knife and generally ignore it.You need to deep dive to value thsoe thigns and I wouldnt know where to start.

I don't have any problem with your approach, as you said it helps slice through things and if you start looking at balance sheets in more depth it can end up more work than it's worth. You have a system that works and you only have a certain amount of time to allocate.

The only point I made was to make sure you don't end up with investments in a sector you are interested in just because they are all crossed off your list. Also if you only had 5 options, picking the one with the lowest intangibles to book is probably not the best [single] selection criteria.

The company history is important with the intangibles, if the company has recently made an acquisition or bought out the competition, their future prospects might have improved but they also will have increased goodwill on the balance sheet.

I personally don't write off companies because of intangibles on their balance sheet but I need to understand how they make money and what their future prospects are. 

[HousePriceMania]

I just sold some fake silver to some ejit on ebay, they thought they were getting a bargain

Only joking.

[Erewhon888]

The discussion of Snider's idea continues with Lyn Alden on Macrovoices https://t.co/WpFMBwHV4P

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They do cheap hair transplants another dosbods curse sorted and even cheaper now 

Do they deliver?

[Viceroy]

For those interested here are Armstrong's snippets - a mix of his private blog & public articles. Highlights are mine.

 

Written Feb 2019; 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/ecm-armstrongeconomics101/explaining-the-fall-of-western-society-as-we-know-it/

'There is a serious risk that after 2032, this will be very much like the fall of Rome. Nonetheless, it is my personal hope that if we understand that risk, we can avert it and move to a new type of wave formation and learn from the past just once thereby advancing to the next level of understanding. At the lower threshold of risk lies that reality whereby at the very minimum we are looking at the collapse of centralized governments as took place in 1989 with communism. That will result in greater separatist movements and the breakup of national states as we know it today. The USA could break into four main regions. Britain would find it too splits and Scotland, as well as Wales and Ireland, revert back to their origins.

So what the computer is showing is the rise in civil unrest and the risk of war.

This is part of what the computer is forecasting – the collapse of governments as we have known. 

Furthermore, we are looking at the collapse of socialism the same as communism. Both were derived from Karl Marx. They are both unsustainable economically. The pension system is collapsing with many municipal governments having near or more people on retirement than working.'

'I repeat, there does not appear to be a major stock market correction on the immediate horizon. Major DOW JONES support lies at the 29000-31000 level. Our extreme projected resistance remains well above the market at 68,000. That appears to be the ultimate end game which is a factor of the rising inflation ahead. 
Please keep in mind that we DO NOT SEE a major long-term bear market on the horizon. That is reserved for the bond market. Otherwise, keep in mind that the amount of capital invested in bonds is typically 10x1 with respect to stock. This is why the Dow can eventually rise to 65,000 as money pours out of government debt for the European Central Bank is TRAPPED and cannot raise interest rates without committing financial suicide.'

'To get such a crash in the stock market this time requires capital controls or a complete collapse in government and the financial system. During the Great Depression, sovereign defaults began in Europe. This pushed the dollar higher but not the US share market. Note that the dollar rose in value during World War I, the 1931 Sovereign Debt Crisis, and again for World War II. During those waves of capital flows, the bulk of that capital always moved into government bonds. We are facing a collapse in public confidence in government. How will capital move this time around when capital is moving away from governments? Will we see it move into the private sector exclusively, or will there be a capital flight to China as it becomes the USA of the 1930s?'

'The safest currency still is the dollar, although there may be a correction into 2022 because these people behind the throne are going to try to manufacture a great depression. They are assuming that if they can manufacture a Great Depression, then the people will surrender all their rights as was the case in how FDR got through his New Deal. The greenback (DXY) must close ABOVE 74.50 at year-end to retain any upward momentum even short-term...
We should see a correction in early 2022, so cash will become king for now. They think by collapsing the world stock markets that paper money will be blamed and that will push the next leg of their agenda through - the elimination of paper money.  Be on guard, for their agenda is not going to be so easy as they think. We are dealing with some very evil people here.
We may yet see a correction in equities which will set the stage for a slingshot up thereafter.

The USA is 50 states and each is sovereign. That means that no president can order a nationwide decree to shut all businesses and lock the people down. You see in Europe that head of state can shut the entire country down. Thus, it can get a lot worse outside the USA which remains bullish on capital inflows.

The key weeks ahead will be November 22nd and December 6th
We are looking at a collapse in public confidence on a global scale. The markets are going to respond like NEVER before and all the old theories are out the window. So buckel-up. This will be a very interesting ride into 2022.  We are in the midst of a Monetary Crisis Cycle and that means that we should expect the OPPOSITE of the traditional patterns. Normally, a stock market crash results in a flight to quality which is government bonds. But when it is the government in crisis, the capital flees to the equities. This is why so many people are simply confused.

The dollar strength in the years ahead is from an international capital flow perspective so that is simply relative to other currencies and has NOTHING to do with its purchasing power. The second part of this enigma is the fact that the purchasing power of all currencies will decline. This is the reality as these countries abandon all fiscal responsibility.
Then we have the crisis in sovereign debt. Already, we see that Europe has destroyed its bond market. In that regard, capital from Europe has been moving to both US and China debt markets. This is a real crisis for it signals that Europe and Japan have wiped out their ability to fund their debts and this will contribute to the overall decline in the purchasing power of ALL currencies.
Then we have the move to eliminate paper money and move to the digital world because they are trying to tax everyone and stop the hoarding of cash. The US will do the same, but there will be a delay for the dollar is the reserve currency and 70% of paper dollars are outside the USA. This presents a much more difficult problem in canceling the currency.
Then add to this mess the rising problems of geopolitical tensions and the coming war. The lockdowns have increased the tensions among the populations around the world and they will want to blame someone. This is the seed of war. When we add the War Cycle into this mix, we will see the capital flows still toward the United States for it is impossible to actually invade with troops and tanks.
Then we have the shift in assets from Public to Private as well as the flight from urban to suburban.
Therefore, the confusion out there exists because we have these complex trends. The rise in the dollar after this initial retest of support is not in jeopardy long-term in the least. As with any trend, there are always counter-reactions. We face a serious rise in inflation so the dollar will decline in purchasing power, yet rise against world currencies as the economic conditions are in peril outside the USA thanks to negative interest rates and the collapse in debt markets.

It appears that the Panic Cycle we have in politics for 2022 will result in the Democrats losing control so the policies are then once again subject to change. However, the geopolitical risks are rising substantially and it looks like we will have World War III post-2024.
So for now, the dollar should be soft in 2021, then reverse again and during 2022, that is when the capital flows will head to the dollar-based assets. This will most likely be the push and spin that digital currency will be better than paper. We may see the end of paper money in many countries outside the USA in 2022.

Interestingly, 2015.75 was the start of the Big Bang, the sovereign debt crisis that will lead to the total collapse of governmental debt on a global scale 17.2 years from that turning point — 2032. Nevertheless, there remains the risk of a temporary high in 2021 followed by a two-year decline as politics becomes chaotic. Our Panic Cycles in 2022 and 2024 in politics have not appeared since the Great Depression. So everywhere we look, there is nothing but chaos and strange patterns in markets not seen in 100 years.
The alternative is a rally into 2023 if we get new highs beyond May, but that would warn of a potential decline into 2025

..major all-time highs unfold when everyone who has ever thought about buying has bought. We are not at that level and the only opportunity for that seems to be possible in 2022. Keep in mind that 2022 is also a Panic Cycle in politics. I would not even venture a guess what that means at this stage in the game.
 shortages have already led to rising prices and consumers are starting to realize that it may be cheaper to buy today because whatever it is will be more expensive tomorrow. That is the REAL stimulus to inflation – not the increase in money supply which has been exponential since the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis with no inflationary impact. As long as the consumer does not trust the future, then they hoard their cash. Inflation emerges ONLY when they see that it is no longer beneficial to hoard their cash. That is the psychology we are now entering

While our near-term target in the Dow Jones Industrials remains in the 36,000-37,000 range, we are still in a position to test the 40,000 number on a broader-term. What you must keep in mind are the capital flows. reflecting the international capital flows for foreign money always go for the blue-chips.

The DEMISE of the dollar is underway, but it will take time. It appears the dollar will lose that status by 2028 and it will be gone by 2036. What BigTech is doing right now with their insane censorship is in fact the overthrow of the United States and setting it in fact for the collapse that our Computer has been forecast post-2032.

'Our computer picked up a shift in capital flows which was the start of the REPO Crisis 2 weeks before in August 2019. It appears that Trump was set up for they were gaining authority to expand for influenza - not COVID. By November 2019, there were whispers that a virus was coming. By December, that is when Bill Gates began to dump stock. By January 2020, I knew people were being told a virus was coming from multiple sources.'

Question: I'm confused about the big picture. Schwab and company will lose, but Socrates' forecast of civil unrest, international war, and the breakup of the US doesn't seem like a win for us. Is the crash and burn inevitable regardless of what we do, and is that what is necessary to defeat Marxism?
Also, you said Schwab really only has until the end of next year to succeed. I think the ECM for the Private Wave shows Authoritarianism rising into 2028.65. How might that play out if Schwab doesn't succeed next year?
Answer: Schwab will not succeed in creating a docile world where we will all own nothing but be happy. That is separate from the crash & burn because he has accelerated the deficits as politicians think that they will be able to end borrowing and just print whatever they need. In addition, they have deliberately created this crisis in the supply chain. Add to that, these people are shutting down fossil fuels NOW, decades before any renewable energy could ever possibly replace them which is seriously down. Wind and solar provide such a minimal amount of power that they would never be able to heat homes no less service all-electric cars, and the internet.
He will fail in his communist dream, but he has accelerated the Crash & Burn. Governments only listened to him because Socialism is collapsing. The nonsense of you will own nothing but be happy is a cover for the Sovereign Debt Default. They are pretending to end all of your debt and usher in Guaranteed Basic Income to eliminate pensions they have bankrupted, for they can default on their national debts. Government NEVER does anything for the people - it is always about their self-interest.
So we will still Crash & Burn, the Western will collapse, and the financial capital of the world is moving to China. The computer forecasted this trend decades ago and that will not change. It is not that China is so fantastic, it is that Schwab, Soros, and Gates have combined thinking they will control the world, but their scheme is failing.

 

I understand how so many keep spinning the conspiracy theory that paints the central banks as the evil people behind the curtain. The central banks are taking orders from above because the government can no longer borrow to fund their annual spending. The proposal for digital currencies if you trace it came from the WEF via Lagarde at the IMF and then the ECB. This is a crisis of debt and the system is collapsing and they can no longer kick the can down the road.
Talk of the Fed taking direct deposits is ending the Primary Dealer network of banks who have been able to manipulate markets without prosecution because the Gov't needed them to sell their debt. That is coming to an end so the entire financial system is being turned upside down.

 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/have-central-banks-crossed-the-line-into-tyranny/
Now, the automated clearinghouse (ACH) system is changing to allow direct deposits from non-banks – i.e. Big Tech in repayment for censorship. On December 23, 2019, the Board approved modifications to the Federal Reserve Banks’ National Settlement Service and Fedwire Funds Service to support enhancements to the same-day ACH service preparing for digital currencies. On September 25, 2020, the Board amended the implementation date for certain modifications. They are preparing for a digital currency, but this means two things.
By this Fed expansion, they are planning for the long-term for the elimination of public debt, in which case there will no longer be primary dealer banks, and hence no need to bail out the banks when they blow up on trading, assuming they will still be allowed to trade in the future.
Once the Fed moves to create its own digital currency, it is no longer the independent entity it was once supposed to be. Welcome to the new 21st century of a hybrid central bank, end of primary dealers, and the elimination of government debt. All for your security, so you do not revolt when the government system collapses.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong-economics-upcoming-events/world-economic-conference/the-authoritarian-rule-the-post-2032-hope/
Based upon reports from inside several governments, the IMF has been directing all central banks to terminate paper money by 2022 and move to digital currencies. The real motive here is to terminate the underground economy and to ensure that everyone is 100% taxed as they determine. This has been the driving force behind the shift toward tangible assets with real estate, collectibles, and equities rising. This has been capital trying to get off the grid.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/banking-crisis/bigtech-replacing-banks-2/

Back in 2020, I had information that BigTech was lining up and was promised that they would be handed online banking if they helped to remove Trump. BigTech was promised the power to overthrow the banks. Governments were also secretly allowing BitCoin to take hold to convince people digital currencies were better than paper. The powers that be want everyone in the banking system to end once and for all paper money.When government eliminates all paper money, the next step will be to seize all pensions and that will be replaced with Guaranteed Basic Income. In that manner, they will be able to default on all government debt and the Modern Monetary Theory will become reality by restraining our liberty if not entirely eliminating it.

This has been what I have been fighting against for these past years. I did the Solution Conference in 2015 because these were the very proposals I was arguing against behind the curtain between 2012 and 2015. The idea of allowing digital currencies surfaced during the 2007-2009 crisis. The bankers blew up the world again and the Fed had to bail out AIG. Bitcoin emerged in 2008 as a theory to circumvent the banks because they would routinely blow up the financial world and they expect to be bailed out because the government needed them to sell their debt. That is when they realized that the system had to change.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/draft/
The cycle cannot be altered. The very best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude. My concern involves what comes AFTER this chaos post-2032. The danger of Marxism in any form, Socialist to Communist, is that these morons think they can have a better life. They end up creating a police state whereby they surrender all their rights to ensure the oppression of others, who they hate because they are told that they are the victims of the rich. I am against oppression and socialistic philosophy, for it leads only to one place.
The very first wave into this cycle saw the collapse of communism 1989.95, and 43 years later (half 86-year cycle), we will meet the collapse of Western socialism. There is no stopping this cycle. To survive, we need to understand the trend in order to step out of the way when it comes.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/economics/is-socialism-dying/
It is dying because the social programs can no longer be funded from pensions to the size of government employment. Because this is dying, it also results in aggressive fighting back in the system to try to save it.
Unfortunately, we have the last twelve years left. Marxism never works. They have tried it so many times. It fails because they try desperately to change human nature. They constantly portray someone having more than they do as evil and unjust. We are all created equal in rights, but not in talents. Some people faint at the sight of blood and others can be doctors. Some are great athletes and others can’t run 20 yards. We should see the end of Marxism with the collapse of governments beginning in 2032 moving into 2037/2038.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/socialist/final-battle-with-socialism/
watch the video

The recent Benchmarks in Gold & Silver produced a reaction high instead of a low. This is indicating that the metals are preparing to return to an uptrend. These will not converge again until March and then July of 2024 implying that that is where we may see highs form.
The most extreme projection for gold in 2024 is $6500. 

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/gold-clarification/
Gold will NOT rally due to debt levels, QE, or any other BS scenario. Gold rallies due to CONFIDENCE collapsing. This is what we are dealing with the failure of central banks and the collapse in Keynesian Economics. This is why they are endorsing the Great Reset because CBs cannot raise interest rates and they have destroyed the bond market in Europe while wiping out their pension funds because they also decreed these funds MUST invest in government debt. They have destroyed the economy and that is why they are using COVID as a military tactic.
Therefore, what I am saying about gold is that it rises when CONFIDENCE collapses, not the rise and fall of QE and interest rates in the normal course of business. We must look to the general public. When they wake up and realize that there is no way this COVID nonsense will ever end because they are deliberately using it to seize the economy and transform it into this Great Reset where governments will no longer borrow money – just print. They intent to default on all public debt and replace even pensions with Guaranteed Basic Income. They are moving toward these end goals step by step so the people do not realize what is taking place.

 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-failure-of-gold-in-the-midst-of-chaos/
..do you really think they will simply let gold provide some alternative currency to circumvent their dreams? I believe gold will end up as an underground BARTER type of currency and they may even terminate the ability to trade gold as they did prior to 1968 in London and 1975 in the USA. If they do that, we are probably looking at 2026. Until then, equities have been the alternative to government debt. The old ideas of money and the ability of gold to provide a hedge against this sort of tyranny would only exist in the black market.

Of course, the goldbugs keep preaching how the stock market will turn to dust and only gold will rise. They have been preaching this mantra since 1971. They seem incapable of understanding that gold is NOT money, it is a private asset now which means it will align with other private assets which is the opposite of how gold performs under a gold standard. When gold is MONEY then as assets rise in value, the purchasing power of gold declines. Since gold is now an asset, it will rise with assets against the dollar. They still seem to think that gold is money and it will replace everything else. That is like thinking the world is still flat.
...the long-term prospects remain in play as gold will be the hedge against GOVERNMENT but keep in mind that governments are also hunting all wealth and that will make it hard for gold to become transportable

Some people seem to confuse INFLATION v REAL TERMS. I have warned that INFLATION has nothing to do with the Quantity of Money. It hinges entirely upon CONFIDENCE. That is what Biden has done - unsettled the foundation of CONFIDENCE. People are now witnessing that everything is rising in price so now they are beginning to see that it is cheaper to buy today than to wait for tomorrow.

The high in real estate in 2023 will most likely be the end of this inflationary surge in spending. It is also part of the flight from the cities. However, thereafter into 2032, we still see that real estate will decline IN REAL TERMS. THIS IS NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL INSTABILITY, do not confuse the difference between 2023 and 2032. Real Estate does not hold up in times of war. It also does not hold up in times of government authoritarianism. For years, I have listened to these elites preaching their theory that a single world government would end all wars. I got tired of arguing trying to explain that cultural differences were also a cause of conflict which included religion. I was wrong to think that these people would ever listen and I underestimated what would happen once they were funded by the Billionaire Club.
This inflationary surge will most likely come to an end by 2023 and that may be linked to the Panic Cycle we see in politics for 2022. But as far as REAL VALUE, real estate and collectibles are surging in REAL value right now and that will probably end by 2023

So far, real estate has followed the forecasts of Socrates rather nicely. There were back-to-back Directional Changes in 2020 and 2021 with the next target for a turning point being 2023. Up to now, mortgage rates are very low and capital is eager to invest in mortgages compared to government debt. It looks like the market will turn south in 2023. With Biden's insane budget of $6 trillion, he is blowing the entire debt market up and we will see mortgage rates eventually rise.
Once Moody's BBB Corporate Rate exceeds 4.05% on a monthly closing basis, then we will see a panic selling of bonds across the board and thus we will then have mortgage rates rising sharply

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-into-2023/

It appears that Biden has provided the straw that broke the back of deflation. Central banks have been engaging in Quantitative Easing since 2008 without success. This has been largely caused by the collapse in confidence in the future. When people fear the future, they save. Increasing the money supply does nothing until the people decide to spend it.
One of the factors that confirmed to me that we would be heading into progressive inflation long-term was the fact that this Residential Index elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal at the end of 2012. That confirmed the long-term trend had changed. However, urban condo and commercial properties were forming a divergence. I assumed that was being caused by the debt and rising taxes in cities. In that regard, I suppose I was only partially correct, for the rest has been the brain-dead response to COVID.
For example, locking people down and causing them to lose jobs has resulted in a sharp rise in violence. Not just mass shootings, but all sorts of conflicts from domestic disputes to outright feuds. Cities, such as Philadelphia and New York, have sections in which the police have totally lost control. It is debatable if they will ever be able to restore civility to these regions. While Fauci claims to ignore the Constitutional violations, his agenda in helping Gates and Schwab is more than simply preparing society for the Great Reset. He is furthering the collapse of urban civility and this trend is part of what is driving this index.
I would expect to see this escalate and if we make a new high on this index and close above last year’s high, single-family homes outside of urban centers will rise sharply into 2023.

[Roger]

Thought some might find this Real Vision YouTube interesting.

Nothing terribly new but Raoul Pal summarising how the landscape since the 70s has been driven by the boomers.

https://youtu.be/O1_LrREYQ8c

[Harley]

11 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've just bought over a 115oz of Sterling Silver off eBay in the last week.

I timed the purchase impeccably just before the drop.

What type of seller and premium if I may ask? Take comfort in the long term charts I posted.

[MrXxxx]

Tulip mania?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/up-up-up-canada-house-prices-poised-surge-again-despite-central-bank-warning-2021-11-24/

...when even the central bank is advising against property it's perhaps a good time to listen?!

[Harley]

10 hours ago, planit said:

I don't have any problem with your approach, as you said it helps slice through things and if you start looking at balance sheets in more depth it can end up more work than it's worth. You have a system that works and you only have a certain amount of time to allocate.

The only point I made was to make sure you don't end up with investments in a sector you are interested in just because they are all crossed off your list. Also if you only had 5 options, picking the one with the lowest intangibles to book is probably not the best [single] selection criteria.

The company history is important with the intangibles, if the company has recently made an acquisition or bought out the competition, their future prospects might have improved but they also will have increased goodwill on the balance sheet.

I personally don't write off companies because of intangibles on their balance sheet but I need to understand how they make money and what their future prospects are. 

A fair caveat there.  I accept up to 10% of equity as intangibles, maybe a bit more for an otherwise sound company.  But some companies are so far in the red zone with all their equity comprising just goodwill!

And I agree about too much analysis.  Very Pareto.  I spend maybe 1 to 2 minutes per company, plus similar on the technicals, although have all the data to hand.  Probably about 19 things I look at across all three financial statements (actually two as the cash flow covers the income statement for me).

Says the bloke who moved into lira just as the smart money moved out!

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Roger said:

Thought some might find this Real Vision YouTube interesting.

Nothing terribly new but Raoul Pal summarising how the landscape since the 70s has been driven by the boomers.

https://youtu.be/O1_LrREYQ8c

He's been stressing the importance of these demographics for a while now.  Maybe TPTB feel the same, another reason for what we are seeing.

[Loki]

HOC +18.61%