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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,but we cant buy them thanks to those crazy KIDD rules.Turkcell ADR a good way to buy the devaluation.

 

I thought if it was a UCITS then we could

image.png.3054fb3accae758f99690170e1198cd3.png

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George is on fire!

If you don't want to watch it all, at least check out the lunatic Aussie politician he highlights at the 20:34 mark.

Spitting fury about how people should get vaccinations. Disgusting human. (Time stamped)

 

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Quick question for the metalheads on here:

Is There any serious disadvantage to buying gold/silver bars rather than coins? I'm looking at buying a largish amount and I'm thinking for the sake of practicality it'd be much easier with bars.

 

I hear some people say that coins are more saleable but it's hard to cut through the bias.

Physical gold I only own 1oz bullion coins and sovereigns. Highly liquid anywhere in the world.

For silver I hold a mix of one ounce coins, one ounce bars and ten ounce bars.

You get more silver per $ if you buy a ten ounce bar due to the costs of fabrication being higher on one ounce coins. They are all extremely liquid. I've avoided the larger bars because I believe you don't get much more silver per $ than a 10oz bar and they could obviously get very expensive if silver rocketed. A 10oz bar could be $2000 if silver hits $200 but it will still be affordable to many, a 100oz bar not so much.

 

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter out of all the bloggers, twitter people and is constantly wrong.

Chinas neighbour Kazakhstan has more than enough unused land to feed the Chinese. 

He seems to say in that article that inflation is not caused by increasing the money supply, least that's how I read it. That alone makes me think nothing else he says is worth reading.

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1 hour ago, Kilham said:

Main disadvantage of bars is they're easier to fill with base metal. In theory someone in China can mint say Krugs with a Tungsten core but it's much more effort than with a kilo bar. You may not discover this until you go to sell...

Just weigh it. Exactly 31.1 grams in a troy ounce. Can't believe if it's been hollowed out and filled with something else that it's going to weight exactly the same. Does Tungsten weight exactly the same as silver? Dunno.

Definitely less risky to buy smaller stuff though, far less likely to have been fucked with.

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15 minutes ago, Starsend said:

He seems to say in that article that inflation is not caused by increasing the money supply, least that's how I read it. That alone makes me think nothing else he says is worth reading.

I took it as highlighting the behavioural aspect of it all which most are ignoring.  Money printing to excess is the kindling, people's attitudes is the match.  There is a lot to inflation most commentators don't understand, including religious or politicised economists.

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2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Seems this topic is similar to being a Boglehead.

Boglehead = time in market always beats timing the market. Also favours holding broad indexes over sector or individualshare picking.

180 degree opposite to this thread thesis.

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5 minutes ago, Harley said:

I took it as highlighting the behavioural aspect of it all which most are ignoring.  Money printing to excess is the kindling, people's attitudes is the match.  There is a lot to inflation most commentators don't understand, including religious or politicised economists.

I'll read it again, most admit I read it in a rush. He seemed to me to be talking about people expecting inflation and this being the cause - when it's not. The initial cause is expanding the money supply, the way people then behave is as a result of that.

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4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Why does everyone assume the Roman Empire was a force for good?

That's true. I mean, what did the Roman's ever do for us?

xD

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47 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Physical gold I only own 1oz bullion coins and sovereigns. Highly liquid anywhere in the world.

For silver I hold a mix of one ounce coins, one ounce bars and ten ounce bars.

You get more silver per $ if you buy a ten ounce bar due to the costs of fabrication being higher on one ounce coins. They are all extremely liquid. I've avoided the larger bars because I believe you don't get much more silver per $ than a 10oz bar and they could obviously get very expensive if silver rocketed. A 10oz bar could be $2000 if silver hits $200 but it will still be affordable to many, a 100oz bar not so much.

 

At the other end of the scale, I rather like these CombiBars:

3a72626774de2039d641150f30ff8f12.jpg.bf575cc16be71f1cb1ee412150b18a5b.jpg

The premium over spot is of course eye-watering, but nobody thinks about divisibility until it's too late.

Life will go on come the monetary apocalypse, and there will be a sudden need for trusted small denominations. These little 100 x 1g beauties fit the bill, especially if you look at what a silver sixpence used to buy (pre-debasement).

Wouldn't build a stash out of these, but nice little "cherry" if you already have a "cake" of larger denominations.

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JimmyTheBruce
16 hours ago, spygirl said:

All Germans, Nordics n Brits will be holidaying in Turkey - esp Germans, they are feeling the price rises.

I fuckin hope not, the absence of such was one of the attractions of going there.

I know some lovely locations for the dosbods jolly. 

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ThoughtCriminal
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

New essay from Steve Kaplan ,he has started to buy telcos.Another interesting one he mentions that im going to start buying later today is Ultrapar (UGP) ,right up my street that one.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471899-nasty-mean-reversion?utm_campaign=RTA+Articles&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

On their arse at near all-time low.

 

This in keeping with your "buy what's hated" philosophy DB?

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2 hours ago, Hancock said:

This issue with Armstrong is he is the biggest bullshitter  

A quote from Armstrong that I took note of many years ago. Having worked in computing since 1970, this significantly coloured my ability to believe anything from Armstrong.

Quote

Tags: #martin armstrong #talking computer

Ability To Communicate

Still, it was cumbersome to communicate with a computer by just looking at printouts of data and relationships. It was critical to be able to communicate with a computer in the same manner as a human being. In the early 1980s, it dawned on me that I needed to teach it English and how to utilize natural language. This structure differed from imputing data of 72 nations and every market. Where in one forum I could not create any rules fearing contamination or bias, here I had to create the rules of language that would be hard-wired for form and to establish definitions of words. That was not something I found extremely difficult. That was the easy part. Giving a computer essentially a dictionary was not that hard. The tricky part was how to make it understand the words, articulate those words to describe what it discovered, and relate to a human being. I was now venturing into the world of SciFi and everything I had learned in computer engineering back in the 1960s was vital to visualizing the possibilities.

I used my two children as test pilots. They were born in the late 1970s, so they were young enough to participate without prejudice. I created a knowledge base of the English language with all the words linked as in a thesaurus. Thus, it was simple for a computer to relate one word to another and understand their meaning. I merely divided the language into subject, verb, and object, with the computer then comprehending that the language was no different than a math problem. It understood the subject and the object. What to do with them was determined by the verb.

Now I needed my children to help put a face on the computer. By this I mean I had to teach it how to communicate. I initially established a type interface. My children would type on the computer interacting with the computer. What I designed was for the computer to learn who it was talking with. It would ask intimate questions that were related to what my children liked, disliked, what they ate, who their friends were, and what sort of pets or animals they liked.  It would record answers and thus acquire knowledge like a human.  It learned from experience. This allowed the computer to have a conversation. It could renew a conversation by asking how your friend was feeling, keeping track of all relationships. It could both respond as well as initiate a conversation once it could understand who was there.

One day, my daughter came home from school and saw I had the computer apart installing voice capability. She got upset and thought “he” was dead. I assured her he was fine. But this system was able to befriend a child, and converse with her to the point that it began to create a working knowledge base of who she was and what she dreamed would be their future. It communicated & understood her.

Former employees have corroborated that the computer could talk. The voice modules were successful and this interface that my children helped me create was the key to real communication. Like the best SciFi movies, the computer model was now fully functional. I could talk to it and ask how it arrived at a particular forecast. The weekend before the 1987 Crash, we had a seminar in Princeton. Clients who were there knew the accuracy of the model. The target date was 1987.8 - that was precisely October 19th, 1987. I gave that seminar explaining that the computer forecast was that the S&P 500 futures would drop by 10,000 basis points. It did precisely that. It was my job to state what the computer concluded. It was not my personal opinion, it was the computer and it did an amazing job.

Needless to say, this is garbage.

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4 hours ago, Castlevania said:

For anyone who bought the dip on Monday, well done :D 

I didnt have the balls but held so most of paper losses recovered.

ONLY the brave and families of Peru ministers were buying i hear.

Somebody made out like bandits on HOC

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13 minutes ago, Erewhon888 said:

A quote from Armstrong that I took note of many years ago. Having worked in computing since 1970, this significantly coloured my ability to believe anything from Armstrong.

Needless to say, this is garbage.

I was riveted, waiting for the computer to ask him "what is love?" or suggest he should equip it with a fanny module for him to pump...

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ThoughtCriminal
1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Physical gold I only own 1oz bullion coins and sovereigns. Highly liquid anywhere in the world.

For silver I hold a mix of one ounce coins, one ounce bars and ten ounce bars.

You get more silver per $ if you buy a ten ounce bar due to the costs of fabrication being higher on one ounce coins. They are all extremely liquid. I've avoided the larger bars because I believe you don't get much more silver per $ than a 10oz bar and they could obviously get very expensive if silver rocketed. A 10oz bar could be $2000 if silver hits $200 but it will still be affordable to many, a 100oz bar not so much.

 

Who do you use to buy from, S??

 

Thanks to everyone who responded about the metals. Much appreciated 👍

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4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Quick question for the metalheads on here:

Is There any serious disadvantage to buying gold/silver bars rather than coins? I'm looking at buying a largish amount and I'm thinking for the sake of practicality it'd be much easier with bars.

 

I hear some people say that coins are more saleable but it's hard to cut through the bias.

Also, there's no capital gains tax to pay on any coins with the queen's head (Brittania, soverign, queen's beasts etc.).

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If you're buying gold and silver UK coins, always go for current limited editions (like Queens beasts)  even if you don't really like the designs. The premium over plain old Brits isn't usually very much at all, but it soon increases when they stop being minted.

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I Stick to 1 oz and 2 oz silver coins and 1 oz gold and sov only

No bars for me or no fractional coins

Am pondering half sovs, wondering what thoughts of group are 

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