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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

While I think all physical gold is considered the same asset, selling actual physical to buy a physical ETF would enable you to use your allowance without going 30 days without price exposure. After 30 days you could reverse course, losing on fees etc but not risking gold making a big move up with you on the sidelines.

Can confirm - I did exactly this last tax year to burn off some BullionVault gains from the run up over previous years.

Took advice from my accountant ahead of doing it, no problems at all come self-assessment time.

They're now helping me with this year's brainteaser: how to burn some BTC mad gainz without reducing exposure, seeing as FCA cut the ETF trick off at the knees.

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5 hours ago, Hunty said:

When you file your tax return, there is a box to tick which basically is a self declaration that you are telling the whole truth and nothing but the truth regarding your gains on trades.

I'm sure Shiela from HMRC is gonna love trolling through you 1000 plus trades to make sure everyone is on the button.

 

As you get older mistakes are common.;)

Evading tax is a mugs game.  I've got not time for it as it shows a lack of ability!  No need to do anything naughty, especially with CGT.  I remember a day as a presumably successful trader when I had to include quite a long list with my return.  Took ages, especially having to find the correct Forex rates to use, and use any losses brought forward.

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23 minutes ago, Harley said:

Evading tax is a mugs game.  I've got not time for it as it shows a lack of ability!  No need to do anything naughty, especially with CGT.  I remember a day as a presumably successful trader when I had to include quite a long list with my return.  Took ages, especially having to find the correct Forex rates to use, and use any losses brought forward.

Losses?!

Get off this thread, it is purely for winners!

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Evading tax is a mugs game.  I've got not time for it as it shows a lack of ability!  No need to do anything naughty, especially with CGT.  I remember a day as a presumably successful trader when I had to include quite a long list with my return.  Took ages, especially having to find the correct Forex rates to use, and use any losses brought forward.

hear hear.  evading tax in most western countries is just stupid.

AVOIDING tax legally, however, is a moral duty.

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33 minutes ago, wherebee said:

hear hear.  evading tax in most western countries is just stupid.

AVOIDING tax legally, however, is a moral duty.

P85 form is the easiest way!

 

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What an amazing day.I been runing round after the kids and then reading ye olde 'don't yon vaccine' thread,jsut clicked on inv.com and here we are Brent down 13%.Impressive effort.

I sadi to myself after my close scrape in Oct when our call option plays came good in the last three weeksof the trade,that I wouldn't tempt fate antoher time(I've been having a bash since Jul 20 iirc).

ANyway.these figures get my attention.Anotehr meltdwn Monday and we'll be good to go.320 BP,10 repsol get my interest but tempted if XOM reach $60,Shell £15

image.png.f5ddfad96da9c30ea617d1af4c303547.png

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30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Orange,TEF,Vod, 02Dn,AT&T look reasonable value.

Decl:long all already,looking to deploy potash profits.

 

image.png.65c60fb1f6f3a164873086937294aecc.png

Do you own all them?

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

What an amazing day.I been runing round after the kids and then reading ye olde 'don't yon vaccine' thread,jsut clicked on inv.com and here we are Brent down 13%.Impressive effort.

I sadi to myself after my close scrape in Oct when our call option plays came good in the last three weeksof the trade,that I wouldn't tempt fate antoher time(I've been having a bash since Jul 20 iirc).

ANyway.these figures get my attention.Anotehr meltdwn Monday and we'll be good to go.320 BP,10 repsol get my interest but tempted if XOM reach $60,Shell £15

image.png.f5ddfad96da9c30ea617d1af4c303547.png

and them?

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15 hours ago, planit said:

Even the speed at which you can get something out is really important so a shit quick article will always beat a slow brilliant article.

It appears vaccines have 'gone the same way' now that their producers are absolved of any responsibility for their side effects...

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11 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Well we've had the bank bailouts and the Gas company bailouts, are the likes of these 'Buy now, pay later' companies the next in line?....you can hardly expect companies or the populus to be responsible for imprudent financial decision making can you?

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Nearly half the NASDAQ 100 is now trading below the 200 DMA 

Chart boys, you're up. I think it's nearly time

Wow that's getting fragile, and i remember seeing that the vast increase in valuation was quite limited to certain well known high flying stocks.

List of things I'm keeping an eye on over next few months:

European Energy prices (already bad and its November)

Covid over reaction (they are going to...)

Oil price (everyone things its going down, SA/Russia may have something to say)

Worst case scenario is oil spikes and inflation kneecaps fed printing, Euro energy spike would lead to high dollar demand and would spike DXY torpedoing US markets and Christmas lockdown won't go down well leading to widespread unrest.  A few smaller things as well, but those are the main ones and rather a lot of people are in ostrich mode thinking that everything is fine and CB/Govt's have got this 100%.

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Game on. 

This may have legs, although I wonder if this is just one of several volatile swings we'll see.  Either way, best to have a playbook.  So what are we doing about the risks and, separately, the opportunities?

Me, I'm not sure so need to study the charts and portfolios this weekend.  IMO there are three broad things to address:

. Overall asset allocations.  I'm not at my balanced holdings atm so need to increase hard assets in particular.  My target allocation model is primarily designed to protect capital with an element of upside with value stocks.  The turbulence may be my friend here.  A mixed bag atm with PMs relatively undervalued (but could go lower), cryptos already pulling back, and commodities still elevated.  I've had a thought about the relationship between gold and cryptos.  Gold usually falls too on a general sell off but maybe crypto, as the alledged alternative, could act as a bit of a firebreak in a liquidity event.  Bonds went up Friday.  They may well be toast one day but could be a shelter for now rather than cash (counterparty risk).

. Specific holdings.   I sold down some equity holdings Friday to typically 50% of what I would typically hold for each.  That's my way of mitigating the risk I get this and other moves wrong.  I have also been more aggressive in selling out of non-core, from a macro pov, holdings.  This also helps keep an eye on a smaller list.  I will let my screening model direct when and where to buy in my reduced universe but cross check against some watchlists like sancho maintains (my screeners can produce these on demand).  But just to emphasise, I was doing this based on the intermediate charts.  I did not even know about the broad market selloff until afterwards!  For the non-equity holdings, I'm diversifying to reduce counterparty risk (e.g. holding several bond ETFs). 

. Currencies.  I'm also diversifying on the forex front as the partial churn in rates on Friday was interesting.  Sterling had a patchy day versus recent days.  I was very surprised to see it fall against the rouble given all those interesting Russian opportunities but maybe I'm just lucky!

Overall, I'm pleased to see some volatility and to have the opportunity at last to adjust positions.

Any other approaches out there?

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

European Energy prices (already bad and its November)

Just to stress in mainland (continental) Europe at least it doesn't get really cold until after the new year.  This has a long time to run.

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15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What an amazing day.I been runing round after the kids and then reading ye olde 'don't yon vaccine' thread,jsut clicked on inv.com and here we are Brent down 13%.Impressive effort.

I sadi to myself after my close scrape in Oct when our call option plays came good in the last three weeksof the trade,that I wouldn't tempt fate antoher time(I've been having a bash since Jul 20 iirc).

ANyway.these figures get my attention.Anotehr meltdwn Monday and we'll be good to go.320 BP,10 repsol get my interest but tempted if XOM reach $60,Shell £15

image.png.f5ddfad96da9c30ea617d1af4c303547.png

Isn't this what Dave Hunter predicted, a short-term correction in oilies? Or is this just part of the current general SP500 pullback? Though I think DH still expects the index to go well past 6000++ into next year.                                                                           I note Rockhopper is sometimes in your list, but sometimes it's not... are you teasing us SP!! (I own it so from here am expecting a 100x!!, though def. not advice).

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Speaking of 'Senor Hunter', here is another interview with him from a few days ago. Not sure if someone already posted it? We're familiar with his forecasts here but good,I think, to hear again and some further depth and detail within. (Interviewer seems a bit out of her depth and gets a good red-pilling as he describes the end of "this giant ponzi scheme" as we go to the 2030s).

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If you were OPEC and you were meeting this week on the 2nd what would you do?

Last week seems like a great excuse to delay the output increase for December by a month.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, planit said:

If you were OPEC and you were meeting this week on the 2nd what would you do?

Last week seems like a great excuse to delay the output increase for December by a month.

The political implications are very intruiging.

Does Pedalo Joe claim his SPR release has caused the move down in oil? If so problem solved, as you say.

Does he talk up the risk of oil rising again soon, or try to talk it down further?

If OPEC quietly kick the can on raising production, does he kick up a fuss or play it down?

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16 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Any chart boys got thoughts on this?

Not remotely a chart boy, but my thoughts:

Breaking that resistance (going up) could certainly trigger a euphoric melt-up/blow-off top. Can you imagine the sentiment? This is IMO not incompatible with David Hunter's forecasts though, if the move turns into a false breakout.

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