Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Don Coglione]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation.Thats all,they need nothing else,just fiscal drag.

IHT freeze is huge when you have high inflation.Im not married so my 3 kids only have £325k between them from me.I have the £175k house allowance as well,but without SIPPs being outside IHT id be stuffed,and thats before any family money from my dad comes to me.One reason i retired at 49,i can help my kids more looking after grandkids,fixing their cars,houses etc.My dad has a will trust for 49% of his assets,so my brother cant lose it all in a week,if my brother goes before me id likely use that to open SIPPs for all the grandkids and run them down because i dont want it for tax reasons.

Pension lifetime limit also.Just ok now for most people,but another decade of freezes,maybe two decades.Thats the big one for me if they count that to your estate.They tax it anyway if you die at 75 or over,but you can still withdraw at your marginal rate so can be used to retire early for the kids.

There is a very good chance il buy a load of woodland if that stays outside IHT at some point.Id rather Charlie has somewhere to live.Plus iv always had the urge to pull one of those hunter gentry types off their horse and give them a good kicking if they wandered on my land ,strange bucket list i have 

I have a mate whose parents are selling their agricultural land, as they are convinced that it will be subject to inheritance tax in the near future and reason that the hit to the land's value will exceed the tax payable on the cash.

I reckon they are wrong, as land is where so much of the real kingmakers' wealth is held, but they are very well connected.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

Would love to own just a field, not for building, or speculation, or anything like that, just somewhere to go.  But even that seems complicated.

I saw a 18 acre field sold for £300,000 recently. Not sure about complicated, more like expensive, just to sit and watch some wheat growing. It is not even large enough to shoot on, all you can do is stand in the middle of it and shout "its mine, all mine I tell thee".

[Loki]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

all you can do is stand in the middle of it and shout "its mine, all mine I tell thee".

I see you read my land purchase analysis but I don't remember sharing it 

No I would use it for storage and build a concrete base for a small workshop, somewhere to ride motocross bikes, probably grow some food, have a wildlife area...all sorts

[Lightscribe]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks for that, those are the exact concerns I have, as working in construction I am aware of how land can be a tricky asset.  Would love to own just a field, not for building, or speculation, or anything like that, just somewhere to go.  But even that seems complicated.

It’s almost as if they’ve made all the hoop jumping complex on purpose over the centuries. 

Cant have the plebs getting beyond their station and all that. There’s a reason land gets inherited down the family in the upper circles with none of the faff and the plebs are kept working paying taxes.

This young lad took advantage of a zero carbon loophole for building dwellings on land he bought in Wales. He’s done really well since, and created his own self-sustainable energy supply, workshop, mini farm etc. Good luck to him

 

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I saw a 18 acre field sold for £300,000 recently. Not sure about complicated, more like expensive, just to sit and watch some wheat growing. It is not even large enough to shoot on, all you can do is stand in the middle of it and shout "its mine, all mine I tell thee".

I’d at least roll around on it naked.

[janch]

20 hours ago, Ma2 said:

a nice market town for well under £100k less than we are selling for that has a mainline station to London and even a Waitrose, now how's that for posh

Chippenham by any chance?

[CannonFodder]

In two minds; be nice to be self sufficient with land but aware of some of the issues - maintaining boundaries and riparian drainage such as ditches alongside neighbours and roads . Also tendency of people to move fences if no one around to grab a bit 

Throughout history always good to have land to feed oneself and family. Flip side of this is the countryside suffers in downturns. Already a wave of farm theft going on. Alone in your house in middle of nowhere can make self feel exposed.

I come from a rural background and most people had a shotgun in the house. Also people didnt leave things unattended, arranged for neighbours to check periodically when on holiday.

 

[MrXxxx]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeandproperty/help-to-buy-scheme-has-made-homes-for-first-time-buyers-more-expensive-and-does-not-represent-good-value-for-taxpayer-says-house-of-lords-report/ar-AASF1eA?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

 

Really?!.....and whilst we are talking about a "waste of taxpayers money" can we include the House of Lords [and their reports] in this long list as well?

[sancho panza]

On 08/01/2022 at 17:12, Democorruptcy said:

Have you seen the latest surveillance report? The infection rates are much lower for no vax, mandates don't compute?

As others have said, I think there are sample issues DM but looking at hospitalizations and transmission in countries like Israel/Gibraltar,where there are fewer sampling issues, the evidence is beginning to stack that all may not be right in the world of big pharma soon.

On 08/01/2022 at 20:43, Castlevania said:

Next week, next month, next year. Eventually it will. I like DH but don’t take timing advice from him as he’s awful at that.

His blow off top call into the bottom in March April 20 was the stuff of legend.directionally he's invariably right but as you say timing off him could cost you

On 09/01/2022 at 23:10, ThoughtCriminal said:

Fucking mental.

It's like an open invite to the futures markets to get their wheel barrows and load up on calls. There's nothing like fleecing taxpayers for easy profits

[MrXxxx]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/apprentice-star-akshay-has-been-the-director-of-five-failed-companies/ar-AASEDMt?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

...well if his first word as a newborn was "Profit" then looking at his 'track record' perhaps he should have been aborted?

[Axeman123]

19 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Throughout history always good to have land to feed oneself and family. Flip side of this is the countryside suffers in downturns. Already a wave of farm theft going on. Alone in your house in middle of nowhere can make self feel exposed.

I remember reading something (Argentina?) about life in an economic crisis. The observation that stood out to me was that in the city you could easily suffer a nasty brief robbery or home inavasion, but in the country you could be held prisoner for days in a home takeover!

14 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeandproperty/help-to-buy-scheme-has-made-homes-for-first-time-buyers-more-expensive-and-does-not-represent-good-value-for-taxpayer-says-house-of-lords-report/ar-AASF1eA?li=AAwnS0s&ocid=mailsignout

IMO this is signalling no more HTB props, even if prices move down. The recent Gove announcement that builders will have to swallow historic flammable cladding remediation costs implies they are now seen by government as a piggy-bank rather than something to subsidise.

[Democorruptcy]

Thread darling BAT is cheap according to Barclays

Quote

 

Barclays lifted its price target on British American Tobacco on Monday to 3,400p from 3,300p, arguing that the shares are at an inflection point.
The bank, which maintained its 'overweight' rating, said BAT has been a frustrating stock to own over the last three years, with a total return of around 41% versus 50% for the MSCI World Staples Index. However, Barclays reckons this is about to change due to two catalysts.

"First, BAT will start repurchasing shares soon - we think BAT could repurchase circa £10bn in shares by FY25 (c15% of market cap) and still see net debt/EBITDA decline from c3x in FY21 to c2x by FY25.

"Second, BAT will now start breaking out NGP (next generation product) contribution losses; we think these are c$1bn today."

Barclays noted that BAT has guided for NGP to break even by FY25.

"As NGP losses reduce and share repurchases step up, BAT's earnings per share growth should accelerate from 6% in FY20/21 to 9% in FY22/23E, and 10%+ beyond FY24E," it said.

Barclays said that at 8% dividend yield and 7.5x 2022E price-to-earnings, the stock is cheap.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/british-american-tobacco-plc-ordinary-25p/share-news

 

Disclosure: I own some.

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I remember reading something (Argentina?) about life in an economic crisis. The observation that stood out to me was that in the city you could easily suffer a nasty brief robbery or home inavasion, but in the country you could be held prisoner for days in a home takeover!

IMO this is signalling no more HTB props, even if prices move down. The recent Gove announcement that builders will have to swallow historic flammable cladding remediation costs implies they are now seen by government as a piggy-bank rather than something to subsidise.

It was possibly Ferfal blog that covered the collapse of Argentina and subsequent years of misery for the general population. I think the blog is still available online.

[geordie_lurch]

19 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

I remember reading something (Argentina?) about life in an economic crisis. The observation that stood out to me was that in the city you could easily suffer a nasty brief robbery or home inavasion, but in the country you could be held prisoner for days in a home takeover!

Below is a link to a great documentary on Netlfix about a cameraman that goes to Cuba over 40 years of initial boom and the subsequent bust. Three rural farming brothers feature heavily in it and without giving too much away ANY crops or animals that were left unguarded 24/7 in the poor years were stolen to eat by poor locals or gangs After watching this, it solidified my thinking it is probably easier and safer blending into the suburban decay and chaos in a half decent area in such situations rather than being a lone self sufficient farmer open to attacks from all angles and being seen as looking like you have food and resources

https://www.netflix.com/ro-en/title/80126449

 

[sancho panza]

This is a warnign sign the top may be in sight soon or have passed.Clear echoes of Dec 99 for tech bubble historians when a few of the runners in that Bull run peaked.This fund has a lot of retail participation.

[Hancock]

The supposed trigger is pulled.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/11/end-liquidity-supernova-central-banks/

Hell hath no fury like a central bank fighting to regain lost credibility. If 2021 was the year of ultra-loose money and rampant inflation, 2022 is the year of retribution when chickens come home to roost.

The US Federal Reserve has switched almost overnight from friend to foe. The latest Fed minutes compound the policy shock, with tremors spreading through the global bond markets and the interlinked nexus of credit contracts and exchange rates. Everything is tightening. 

Morgan Stanley says investors were assuming just five months ago that there would be no US rate rise until April 2023. Today markets are pricing the first rise within a couple of months, the start of four staccato hits in rapid succession this year.

Worse yet for tech stocks levitated by quantitative easing, the Fed is not only itching to end fresh bond purchases vivacissimo, but also intends to start selling down its $8.8 trillion portfolio within months. Quantitative tightening (QT) is coming much sooner than expected.

Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI expects the Fed to start QT in June and quickly to reach cruise speed of $750bn a year. If inflation persists, there could be a rate rise every meeting. This is what happens when a central bank falls badly behind the curve.

Omicron is almost a market irrelevance at this juncture. Investors can see what the health establishment seems curiously determined not to see: that the clinical data is benign; that T cell memory is holding up just as fundamental immunology would suggest; that all but a small minority in most countries is either vaccinated or has comparable cell immunity from prior infection; and that we are no longer looking at the same disease - as Oxford’s Sir John Bell put it.

There could still be a surprise from zero-Covid China as an unstoppable variant meets a defective vaccine in a ‘virus-naive’ population. That aside, the critical economic and market variable as we head into 2022 is what central bankers do about a wage-price spiral of their own making.   

The jump in US headline inflation to 6.8pc is what finally caused the dam to break at the Fed, complemented by the 23pc rise in house prices over the last year, more extreme than the subprime bubble before 2008. 

It is as if the Federal Open Market Committee looked into the mirror and collectively asked itself how it could justify injecting further emergency stimulus into a red-hot economy growing near 7pc (on the Atlanta Fed’s instant GDP tracker).  Or asked how it can justify the most steeply negative real rates in modern history when the economy has hit capacity constraints and unemployment is at 3.9pc. 

Stock markets normally cope fine when the Fed starts to raise rates, interpreting it as a sign of economic health. Deutsche Bank says the S&P 500 has risen 7pc on average over the first nine months during post-war episodes. Markets climbed steadily higher for three years after the Greenspan Fed first raised rates in 2004 and kept raising them 13 times.

But debt ratios are higher today and QE has changed market chemistry. Chairman Jay Powell’s attempt to unwind asset purchases by $50bn a month in late 2018 set off violent moves on Wall Street and led to global contagion. He capitulated.

The optimistic view is that this time is different. Goldman Sachs says there is a safety cushion of $1.5 trillion of commercial bank liquidity parked in short-term ‘reverse repos’. This could be used to soak up US Treasury bills and cover some of the US government’s vast funding needs.

Matt King, Citigroup’s global market strategist, begs to differ. What drives asset prices in our brave new world of QE is the ebb and flow of fresh purchases. “Markets are more sensitive to changes than to levels. As the flow of new money creation has dwindled, the rally has become dangerously narrow. It's best not to linger too long in crowded spaces,” he said.

Michael Hartnett from Bank of America says we’re seeing the end of the “liquidity supernova”. Central banks have been buying $26bn in assets for every trading day since Covid began. They added $10.5 trillion from 2020-2021. They will subtract $0.6 trillion this year. 

Stock market breadth has been deteriorating. Two thirds of global equity indexes are currently trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign that the late bull market is gradually breaking down.  

Mr Hartnett said a hint of serious tightening has already burst multiple bubbles, in cryptocurrencies, leveraged private equity, and a swath of less plausible tech companies, with Cathy Wood’s Ark Innovation down 47pc, the Hang Seng tech index down 51pc, the SPDR biotech index down 42pc. The QE winners are turning into preemptive QT losers. 

The FAAMG quintet of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have yet to buckle but they too are vulnerable to a profits squeeze. They have ballooned to $10 trillion of market capitalisation during Covid. Apple alone is up $2 trillion since lockdowns began. The five together almost equal the combined GDP of Japan, Germany, and the UK. 

Mr Hartnett says they have not paid much tax and therefore enjoy scant political goodwill. They will face a triple headwind: tight money, a regulatory sledgehammer, and tax collectors. When these giant redwoods wobble, we will find out whether this is a correction or a secular bear market.

Bank of America says the European Central Bank will be forced to follow suit, given that German inflation has reached a post-Reunification high of 6pc. It thinks European equities will end the year 10pc lower than they began, calling a “rates shock” by the ECB and the Bank of Japan the “most underappreciated risk of 2022”. 

But first the world has to deal with the Fed, and with fallout across the dollarised system of international finance. 

At some point there will be a soul-searching interrogation of its staff model and the New Keynesian Weltanschauung of its academic economists. The 1970s-esque wage-price spiral so adamantly denied all through last year is now in plain view. 

Cynics think Jay Powell was politically captured last year by the White House, acting as a fiscal agent for Joe Biden’s $6 trillion spending plans. The Fed set a threshold for monetary tightening - regaining all the jobs lost during Covid - that could not plausibly be reached before inflation was already out of control. My view is that Mr Powell was misled and is now determined to prove that he is not a political stooge.

The root problem in Fed culture runs deeper. Lord Mervyn King, ex-Governor of the Bank of England, says “the intellectual foundation of central bank policy” has been found wanting. The economic fraternity has fallen in love with its ideas, like the ‘scholastic’ monks of the Middle Ages, impervious to the radical uncertainty of the real world.  

The masters of money have ignored money itself. The Fed has disregarded the implications of a 30pc rise in the broad M3 aggregates since the onset of the pandemic. “Money has disappeared from modern models of inflation. Common sense suggests that when too much money is chasing too few goods the result is inflation,” he said.

The Fed itself published a paper in September that marks the moment when the New Keynesian ideological order began to crumble from the inside. The paper began with a quote from Dashiel Hammett: “Nobody thinks clearly, no matter what they pretend. That’s why people hang on so tight to their beliefs and opinions.”

It said mainstream economics is “replete with ideas that ‘everyone knows’ to be true, but that are actually arrant nonsense”. Among the false beliefs is the Fed assumption that inflation expectations give prior warning of actual inflation. The paper said they do not. This error is why US inflation is today running at a 40-year high.

Deutsche Bank says the Fed has led the world up the garden path and is now “sitting on a time bomb”, with potentially “devastating effects” for the most vulnerable in society. 

That is a little harsh. You could argue that the Fed - like the Bank of England - has cleverly inflated away the explosive debt costs of the pandemic. Steeply negative rates under financial repression amount to wealth confiscation from bondholders, who have broad shoulders.

If inflation subsides again this year, the central banks may just get away with it. Right now it looks as if their Faustian bargain has closed in on them. 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I saw a 18 acre field sold for £300,000 recently. Not sure about complicated, more like expensive, just to sit and watch some wheat growing. It is not even large enough to shoot on, all you can do is stand in the middle of it and shout "its mine, all mine I tell thee".

I made a big mistake when i was 22.A friend bought a huge field for £8k ,two little becks running through it and two ponds.He wanted the ponds to expand and turn into fishing ponds.He did then leased them for £3k a year to a fishing club and they had full upkeep.When he bought it he offered me the other side for £5k,2/3ds of the land,one of the becks would of been the boundary.I really wish id bought it.Its amazing how cheap real assets were then up here,though back then we were still very very poor up here in general.

[DurhamBorn]

59 minutes ago, Hancock said:

The supposed trigger is pulled.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/11/end-liquidity-supernova-central-banks/

Hell hath no fury like a central bank fighting to regain lost credibility. If 2021 was the year of ultra-loose money and rampant inflation, 2022 is the year of retribution when chickens come home to roost.

The US Federal Reserve has switched almost overnight from friend to foe. The latest Fed minutes compound the policy shock, with tremors spreading through the global bond markets and the interlinked nexus of credit contracts and exchange rates. Everything is tightening. 

Morgan Stanley says investors were assuming just five months ago that there would be no US rate rise until April 2023. Today markets are pricing the first rise within a couple of months, the start of four staccato hits in rapid succession this year.

Worse yet for tech stocks levitated by quantitative easing, the Fed is not only itching to end fresh bond purchases vivacissimo, but also intends to start selling down its $8.8 trillion portfolio within months. Quantitative tightening (QT) is coming much sooner than expected.

Krishna Guha from Evercore ISI expects the Fed to start QT in June and quickly to reach cruise speed of $750bn a year. If inflation persists, there could be a rate rise every meeting. This is what happens when a central bank falls badly behind the curve.

Omicron is almost a market irrelevance at this juncture. Investors can see what the health establishment seems curiously determined not to see: that the clinical data is benign; that T cell memory is holding up just as fundamental immunology would suggest; that all but a small minority in most countries is either vaccinated or has comparable cell immunity from prior infection; and that we are no longer looking at the same disease - as Oxford’s Sir John Bell put it.

There could still be a surprise from zero-Covid China as an unstoppable variant meets a defective vaccine in a ‘virus-naive’ population. That aside, the critical economic and market variable as we head into 2022 is what central bankers do about a wage-price spiral of their own making.   

The jump in US headline inflation to 6.8pc is what finally caused the dam to break at the Fed, complemented by the 23pc rise in house prices over the last year, more extreme than the subprime bubble before 2008. 

It is as if the Federal Open Market Committee looked into the mirror and collectively asked itself how it could justify injecting further emergency stimulus into a red-hot economy growing near 7pc (on the Atlanta Fed’s instant GDP tracker).  Or asked how it can justify the most steeply negative real rates in modern history when the economy has hit capacity constraints and unemployment is at 3.9pc. 

Stock markets normally cope fine when the Fed starts to raise rates, interpreting it as a sign of economic health. Deutsche Bank says the S&P 500 has risen 7pc on average over the first nine months during post-war episodes. Markets climbed steadily higher for three years after the Greenspan Fed first raised rates in 2004 and kept raising them 13 times.

But debt ratios are higher today and QE has changed market chemistry. Chairman Jay Powell’s attempt to unwind asset purchases by $50bn a month in late 2018 set off violent moves on Wall Street and led to global contagion. He capitulated.

The optimistic view is that this time is different. Goldman Sachs says there is a safety cushion of $1.5 trillion of commercial bank liquidity parked in short-term ‘reverse repos’. This could be used to soak up US Treasury bills and cover some of the US government’s vast funding needs.

Matt King, Citigroup’s global market strategist, begs to differ. What drives asset prices in our brave new world of QE is the ebb and flow of fresh purchases. “Markets are more sensitive to changes than to levels. As the flow of new money creation has dwindled, the rally has become dangerously narrow. It's best not to linger too long in crowded spaces,” he said.

Michael Hartnett from Bank of America says we’re seeing the end of the “liquidity supernova”. Central banks have been buying $26bn in assets for every trading day since Covid began. They added $10.5 trillion from 2020-2021. They will subtract $0.6 trillion this year. 

Stock market breadth has been deteriorating. Two thirds of global equity indexes are currently trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign that the late bull market is gradually breaking down.  

Mr Hartnett said a hint of serious tightening has already burst multiple bubbles, in cryptocurrencies, leveraged private equity, and a swath of less plausible tech companies, with Cathy Wood’s Ark Innovation down 47pc, the Hang Seng tech index down 51pc, the SPDR biotech index down 42pc. The QE winners are turning into preemptive QT losers. 

The FAAMG quintet of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft have yet to buckle but they too are vulnerable to a profits squeeze. They have ballooned to $10 trillion of market capitalisation during Covid. Apple alone is up $2 trillion since lockdowns began. The five together almost equal the combined GDP of Japan, Germany, and the UK. 

Mr Hartnett says they have not paid much tax and therefore enjoy scant political goodwill. They will face a triple headwind: tight money, a regulatory sledgehammer, and tax collectors. When these giant redwoods wobble, we will find out whether this is a correction or a secular bear market.

Bank of America says the European Central Bank will be forced to follow suit, given that German inflation has reached a post-Reunification high of 6pc. It thinks European equities will end the year 10pc lower than they began, calling a “rates shock” by the ECB and the Bank of Japan the “most underappreciated risk of 2022”. 

But first the world has to deal with the Fed, and with fallout across the dollarised system of international finance. 

At some point there will be a soul-searching interrogation of its staff model and the New Keynesian Weltanschauung of its academic economists. The 1970s-esque wage-price spiral so adamantly denied all through last year is now in plain view. 

Cynics think Jay Powell was politically captured last year by the White House, acting as a fiscal agent for Joe Biden’s $6 trillion spending plans. The Fed set a threshold for monetary tightening - regaining all the jobs lost during Covid - that could not plausibly be reached before inflation was already out of control. My view is that Mr Powell was misled and is now determined to prove that he is not a political stooge.

The root problem in Fed culture runs deeper. Lord Mervyn King, ex-Governor of the Bank of England, says “the intellectual foundation of central bank policy” has been found wanting. The economic fraternity has fallen in love with its ideas, like the ‘scholastic’ monks of the Middle Ages, impervious to the radical uncertainty of the real world.  

The masters of money have ignored money itself. The Fed has disregarded the implications of a 30pc rise in the broad M3 aggregates since the onset of the pandemic. “Money has disappeared from modern models of inflation. Common sense suggests that when too much money is chasing too few goods the result is inflation,” he said.

The Fed itself published a paper in September that marks the moment when the New Keynesian ideological order began to crumble from the inside. The paper began with a quote from Dashiel Hammett: “Nobody thinks clearly, no matter what they pretend. That’s why people hang on so tight to their beliefs and opinions.”

It said mainstream economics is “replete with ideas that ‘everyone knows’ to be true, but that are actually arrant nonsense”. Among the false beliefs is the Fed assumption that inflation expectations give prior warning of actual inflation. The paper said they do not. This error is why US inflation is today running at a 40-year high.

Deutsche Bank says the Fed has led the world up the garden path and is now “sitting on a time bomb”, with potentially “devastating effects” for the most vulnerable in society. 

That is a little harsh. You could argue that the Fed - like the Bank of England - has cleverly inflated away the explosive debt costs of the pandemic. Steeply negative rates under financial repression amount to wealth confiscation from bondholders, who have broad shoulders.

If inflation subsides again this year, the central banks may just get away with it. Right now it looks as if their Faustian bargain has closed in on them. 

 "The Fed has disregarded the implications of a 30pc rise in the broad M3 aggregates since the onset of the pandemic."

Remember right back at the start of the thread i said they would need to lift things by 30%,and they have in those broad M3 numbers.Fed knew what it was doing because it had no choice.That 30% number was based on past dis-inflation.Most of the market had no clue on that call,and it was based on liquidity tools from the mid 70s/early 80s.

[dnb24]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 "The Fed has disregarded the implications of a 30pc rise in the broad M3 aggregates since the onset of the pandemic."

Remember right back at the start of the thread i said they would need to lift things by 30%,and they have in those broad M3 numbers.Fed knew what it was doing because it had no choice.That 30% number was based on past dis-inflation.Most of the market had no clue on that call,and it was based on liquidity tools from the mid 70s/early 80s.

You got it spot on DB, and I also think this vindicates a lot of people who saw the “pandemic” for what it really is/was- an excuse to print back the dis-inflation of the past 38 years. 

[harp]

So, who was selling oil stocks just before Christmas again? 

[Bobthebuilder]

From this month's Gas Safe magazine.

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

 

Link

So a 30% increase should have some effect on gold.

Have we seen that lift or is it yet to come?

Id say gold is 35% undervalued,but i havent added any or miners for a long time.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, harp said:

So, who was selling oil stocks just before Christmas again? 

I'm still holding everything I have for the melt up.

I've only had my (very) small SIPP for 14 months. It's up circa 40% including divs since then. 

That's 40% with no meme or growth stocks. All value, commodity, telecoms, PMs etc. It's not even a ripping commodity cycle yet.

Looking to back some gains out in the next few months if markets go vertical and turn into a patient vulture.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

You got it spot on DB, and I also think this vindicates a lot of people who saw the “pandemic” for what it really is/was- an excuse to print back the dis-inflation of the past 38 years. 

Do you think we are at the end of the printing road or will they continue?

 

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, harp said:

So, who was selling oil stocks just before Christmas again? 

I sold some Shell to take some profits as they reached a stop loss (profit) I'd set but since then I have actually bought more BP and XOM