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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Yes in theory, though that triggers lower allowance, it is taxable income on way out, lifetime allowance not to be exceeded and one should only pay in taxable income

I really need to look into this more,get into the maths of it.I'm tempted by a move to a non UK jurisdiction before I retire so I need to see if it changes it as well.Informative thread today.

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

:ph34r::ph34r::ph34r:

CNA.JPG

Our holding is probably centred around the 140 level.People tend to talk about their winners more than their losers but I really lerned a lot from this trade going pear shaped.

The thesis wasn't bad ie that smaller suppliers would go under(tick) and leave them to hoover up but I didn't study the balance sheet seriously,underestimated regulatory risk and thought the smaller suppliers would go under sooner.At 30p we were down a lot of cash.I also put too much of the money intended for that sector in one (not very good)stock.

Having said all that,from it I developed the notion of 'spray n pray' investing,from that came the coma scores on which I base the spray n pray investing and looking at our portfolio sector builds since,the lessons have been beneficial.

Before you can learn from your msitakes you have to own them is my view.And I own my errors with teh Scottish play.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 "Look like the innocent flower,

But be the serpent under it."

 Lady Macbeth,

Man,you need an English degree of late with some of the quotes flowing but that's a beauty

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The Bear of Doom
2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

image.png.54f2deb423f3a31d2e114adec38c52d0.png

 

Does anyone hold these, I was lucky to buy them at 940 and topped up at 1065, so 10% up over all, my reasomning was the all this electric bollocks needs the national grid.  Good dividend level too.

Looks like a steady growth stock to me.

Yes, I bought some at 863. I wish I had bought more now :(

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@DurhamBorn I have a question for you in regards to pensions.

I have a pension with Standard Life with my new job, I asked HR if they can contribute directly to a SIPP and they said no, I called SL to ask about partial transfers and they also said no.

 

If I request a transfer to my AJ&B SIPP from my SL what happens to my SL account? Does it get closed, does it go to 0 but contributions still come in?

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10 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm YOLOing in at Nasdaq comp ~14500

cool, fortune favors the brave! I thought most CFD providers only did NAS100 so who's covering your '1 way composite bet to the moon'?

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1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

I'm trying to get her to adapt the @sancho panza model where the divis pay the rent. Unfortunately she wants a place she can redecorate :D

I'll keep working on it... I've gotten her to understand already that holding O&G shares is a great hedge for our increasing heating bills... baby steps...

We've jsut moved up from our 3 Bed semi and Mrs P is very pleased.Got a 3 bed bugnalow with a basement room but it's a lot more spacious and she was desperate to have more for the kids.She's pestered me once or twice to buy but has left the investment decisions to me especially when she saw how little a hosue 5 times salary gets you in Leicester.We've worked hard and been lucky investment wise(many thanks to the basement dweller hive mind on this thread).

New hosue is on a 2.5% gross yield.We're paying rent from salaries (till I get sacked)so we can reinvest but say house is worth 3y then our rent is potentially paid by 1.5y of BP shares at current yields if needed.If BP dividend goes back to the old divi, at say 10%(due to our naverage price) then our rent would be paid with around 0.75y BP shares.ANd the miantenance is the LL's.

I'm far more worreid about hedging fuel prices than I am overpriced UK hosuing stock.Same with sterling/food etc.

Don't get me wrong,if it was cheaper we'd buy but the current risk/reward doesn't stack up for me especially given the shape of our portfolio post the coof.

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

"It was at this point that Macron wondered if banning them from increasing prices wasn't his greatest idea". 🤡🤡🤡

TC I'm looking to buy some nuclear leccy stocks ,I thought the French were good at that? @Transistor Man,EDF are going to run a couple in the UK iirc.

Have you got a laymens expalantion for the pummelling?

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This'll end well. 🤦

My thoughts exactly TC.Whislt we remain long this market,the structural issues are plain for anyone to see.I look forward to watching @BadAlchemy s George Gammonvid as I feel pretty sure we'll see the denouement this year.I've said that before but have not moved short which is my acid test directionally,as in when I move short then BK is imminenet in my eyes.

We haven't even moved to cash yet,let alone bunged shorts on.There's a wall of moeny supproting this market and right or worng,that's jsut how it is.

41 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I wish had the nerve to trade TGA but I am just going to keep accumulating. 

The Coal price has crept above $200 again so they should be making money hand over fist.

We're long APF have you had a look at those.Decent value way to get exposure to coal

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1 hour ago, planit said:

Funny that we have lead a very similar path.

I feel we have been seeing a rotation into value due to tech being seen as more risky, some of the oil shares including BP are a no-brainer at current valuations. BP averaged 520p in 2019 when oil was $55.

I will continue to trade my shares but don't see myself selling out of BP for a very long time, we are just at the beginning of the cycle.

Today I see a breakout to the upside for BP (trend from Nov 2020), I am hoping for good results to push the share over 400p.

 

 

 

 

I'll only sell up our oilies exposure if I see a chance to double holdings in a BK.In 2009,BP bottomed at 400.......which tells me we're a long way from selling.This latest run up jsut feels like big insto moeny and as you've said,it times with what looks like an exit from some of the more peripheral tech companies.WHen big tech starts going sotuh things could get interesting for us.

I think we're entering btfd on BP/RDSB,I messed up our optiosn exposure focusing overly on going at the moeny and having value targets in place.HSould have jsut placed a decent size out of the moeny bet and at least had that.Can't grumble,Been an excellent 12 months for oilie call buyers.

The more I'm sitting here typing the more Im thinking sell ENI/Tital buy BP/RDSA.AS I've said previosuly they're running at the back of the herd at the minute,

good luck with the options.

psoted for like the tenth time

image.thumb.png.9d36c4f065470dcd47956e399458cec8.png

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29 minutes ago, nirvana said:

cool, fortune favors the brave! I thought most CFD providers only did NAS100 so who's covering your '1 way composite bet to the moon'?

I'm just doing Nasdaq 100 CFDs on trading 212, i didn't say it was a good idea xD he who dares Rodders

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Chewing Grass
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

TC I'm looking to buy some nuclear leccy stocks ,I thought the French were good at that? @Transistor Man,EDF are going to run a couple in the UK iirc.

Have you got a laymens expalantion for the pummelling?

EDF and Areva are lying scum to deal with, the UK and other countries have been stung by them multiple times and I would go as far as saying both are as corrupt as they come.

Both are 85% owned by the French state which says it all.

Areva do the engineering for EDF.

653298328_Screenshotfrom2022-01-1414-54-13.thumb.jpg.038837e64e268c7625fd9d2f8f6b3d14.jpg

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4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

6 mins of Adam Curry expanding on the repo rates crisis of September 2019 leading to Covid theory and Mass Formation Psychosis - warning strong language

 

I'm listening to the whole thing atm.  Interesting and switched on guy.

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This'll end well. 🤦

The dumb money moved into trackers just as the smart money moved into active?  Nice to know the ETF split - general or specific?  My going in assumption is this year will be one for good stock pickers.

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NAS shorters got slaughtered at the open today! Fukin bootiful boys, fukin bootiful lol

Eat shit Dave!!! 

De6Cor-U0AEJJ_p.jpeg

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2 hours ago, planit said:

Funny that we have lead a very similar path.

I feel we have been seeing a rotation into value due to tech being seen as more risky, some of the oil shares including BP are a no-brainer at current valuations. BP averaged 520p in 2019 when oil was $55.

I will continue to trade my shares but don't see myself selling out of BP for a very long time, we are just at the beginning of the cycle.

Today I see a breakout to the upside for BP (trend from Nov 2020), I am hoping for good results to push the share over 400p.

image.thumb.png.0f9b506ada459e764e30fc2c0a7b79cf.png

 

I missed out buying the BP @320.1 by 0.1p per share which was pretty stupid, I just left the order to be filled and it never was.

However, I did buy BP ADR Jan 23 Call options on a day when the ADR was at a discount to the UK share, I paid about 355 per share when the shares were 360 (excluding the extrinsic option value). In this way I did manage to load up on BP albeit at a price 30p more expensive.

I did hold onto my PFC shares and doubled down at 111p so I am happy in Jan :)

TGA - @M S E Refugee - I have been backing up the truck, it has been good to me trading it and I can't wait for the results in March. I will be disappointed with a dividend announcement less than 70p but we will see how it goes.

 

I am now trading options the 'TastyTrade' way, (hat tip to @MvR) using about 15% of my portfolio (not including the long BP ADRs) and trying to learn fast so I don't have to get a job.

 

 

 

Yep, received a buy signal last week but am fully allocated, plus the monthly is getting overbought toppy.  Nov20 was like a tripple witching time wise and the monthly has had a one way clear run from then to now.  Overbought stocks can still get more overbought so could defo go higher (especially given the MACD) but IMO these are more risky levels at which to lay trades.  The action is perfectly reasonable given the state of the general energy markets. 

PS: Similar with RDSB and co.

PPS:  You're probably right about the rotation as the trend was down and then turned early Jan22.  It'll be interesting to see if resistances get breached and become support.  Probably not if it's retail money driving it up atm! :)

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This'll end well. 🤦

Interesting to see what ETFs are seeing the inflows.Iv been buying lots of UK small asset managers,started on Jupiter today as well.Contrarian macro play that cycle suits the none 60/40 types.Iv been buying Blackrocks Latin America Investment trust,tiny compared to its growth ETFs.

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2 hours ago, No One said:

@DurhamBorn I have a question for you in regards to pensions.

I have a pension with Standard Life with my new job, I asked HR if they can contribute directly to a SIPP and they said no, I called SL to ask about partial transfers and they also said no.

 

If I request a transfer to my AJ&B SIPP from my SL what happens to my SL account? Does it get closed, does it go to 0 but contributions still come in?

You cant transfer while your working there,the day you leave you can transfer into a SIPP.Iv left jobs in the past so i could transfer the pension out.I left GSK,they said they would put up deferred pensions by RPI,i knew that would out run pay increases.When i moved it into my SIPP it was worth 30% more for those years than someone who stayed working there,i got a bigger pension for not working there than someone who kept working ,clown world,but i saw it coming.

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Transistor Man
2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

TC I'm looking to buy some nuclear leccy stocks ,I thought the French were good at that? @Transistor Man,EDF are going to run a couple in the UK iirc.

Have you got a laymens expalantion for the pummelling?

I read that the french state are basically going to expropriate some GWh, and force the sale of electricity at a loss. The state still owns a good chunk of EDF. 

Ageing fleet now too. And they aren’t into the swing of building new ones. 

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3 hours ago, No One said:

I have a pension with Standard Life with my new job, I asked HR if they can contribute directly to a SIPP and they said no, I called SL to ask about partial transfers and they also said no.

 

If I request a transfer to my AJ&B SIPP from my SL what happens to my SL account? Does it get closed, does it go to 0 but contributions still come in?

I also had the same issue but rules may be different for my scheme.

I have a Defined Contribution SL pension that my company contribute to. Mostly terrible funds and even with discounted yearly costs, still seemed expensive to me. Although you could change between funds 10 times a year without charge.

The SL GSIPP is stupidly expensive so I didn't enquire about moving in to that, but if it's possible it might be worth looking at if desperate (you can hold pretty much anything in it even gold)

Not sure if this made the difference this time but I didn't ask about direct contributions or partial transfer, I asked if I could move the total of the funds in my works SL pension into my existing HL SIPP (I have previously been told that wasn't possible but if i don't get the answer I want I usually just keep asking, or find someone else to ask) and the answer to my surprise was yes this could be done at no cost but only 1 time a year. Then a new SL company pension is set up for me and contributions continue.

So if your company has the same arrangement the process is as follows -

  1. You have an existing SIPP set up
  2. You authorise your SIPP provider to request the transfer from SL (there may be a form to fill in)
  3. SIPP provider contacts SL to request funds
  4. SL contact your company to confirm happy for you to opt out but then to immediately rejoin to get your future contributions. This all happens betewen SL and your company
  5. SL send funds to SIPP and set up a new SL plan for you
  6. SL confirm to your company it has been done and your company can tidy up their end

None of the above is advice, I am not a pension adviser, do not start this process as it may not even be in place for you.

I just wanted to share that there is no legal reason why this can't be done and that I got a negative response to my request to do this several times.

Edit to note I transferred out 6 months ago and contributions have continued to new SL company pension as before.

edit to clarify that mine is a DC pension not a DB pension which I think DB was talking about. 

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36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

You cant transfer while your working there,the day you leave you can transfer into a SIPP.Iv left jobs in the past so i could transfer the pension out.I left GSK,they said they would put up deferred pensions by RPI,i knew that would out run pay increases.When i moved it into my SIPP it was worth 30% more for those years than someone who stayed working there,i got a bigger pension for not working there than someone who kept working ,clown world,but i saw it coming.

I wish I had a quarter of your economic savvy...but having been here for 2-3 years and 'inheriting' 1/100 it is still of benefit! :-)

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