Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

Recommended Posts

JimmyTheBruce
7 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Am I being too simplistic?

"Received funding" = taxpayer borrowing again. Not private enterprise.

If it was a good idea, surely it wouldn't need MORE public borrowing. Or is this the beginnings of government pumping liquidity direct to industry? Presumably this is happening via the new infrastructure bank.

If you go a bit further down it does say there'll be substantially more funding from the private sector.  

But it's the BBC, so there's a 90% chance it's all bullshit anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 30.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Am I being too simplistic?

"Received funding" = taxpayer borrowing again. Not private enterprise.

If it was a good idea, surely it wouldn't need MORE public borrowing. Or is this the beginnings of government pumping liquidity direct to industry? Presumably this is happening via the new infrastructure bank.

He also just said something like the parliamentary whips don't bully MPs! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Pishi Sunake urged to give everyone £500 because prices have gone up....because of all the money he's handed out already

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10422877/Rishi-Sunak-urged-families-500-cost-living-bonus.html

 

 

You couldn't make this shit up.


Short sighted policy for the masses every time.

I haven’t read the article but I assume the £500 will only be for people that use more heating because the rest of us are out at work paying for it?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 19/01/2022 at 12:45, dnb24 said:

pipeline owners 
Kinder morgan (kmi)

energy transfer (et)

 spectra energy (se)

williams (wmb)

boardwalk (bwp)

enable (enbl)

dominion (d)

transcanada

Enbridge

pembina (pba)

plains all American (paa)

tc energy (trp)

mplx

 

Terminals

cheniere energy (cdi)

dominion (d)

sempra (sre)

exelon (exc)

kinder morgan (kmi)

 

Are these ones your favourites @dnb24? Or maybe they are particularly leveraged to gas? I ask because the sector has lots of debt, and am thinking big risk of mergers/takeovers for many of the smaller indebted ones?   (Decl: I own some of the big ones, kmi, paa, enbridge)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
6 minutes ago, Juniper said:


Short sighted policy for the masses every time.

I haven’t read the article but I assume the £500 will only be for people that use more heating because the rest of us are out at work paying for it?

Dunno, it's the daily mail so I only read the headline, was in the Sun too.  I'm guessing it's a puff peace to make him look more popular so he can be come the next PM.  A billionaire father in law could buy a lot of good press.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Mine are the same, I'll be left money when it's absolutely no use to me, while if it was treated like a business like Harley said, I'd be retired now after the last two years gains, and working full time on my son's wealth. They were very poor growing up, and their parents make them make sacrifices, so they think it's a good idea. They just gloss over the 40 year disinflation in the middle which has made them all rich without lifting a finger. It's just an inability to zoom out, you'll only see how relatively easy that period was with hindsight.

Agree.

Ultimately they are shooting themselves in the foot.  I will have kids later in life than is ideal, and also move further away due to housing costs.  

I'm simply not going to have the time to do a proper job raising my own family and also care for them when they get frail.

Money has come so easy to them that they have not developed an understanding of how finances dominate most people's lives.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thing to remember and is always forgot by people,IFAs,MSM etc on very highly rated stocks/growth is that they have no or tiny dividends.Total return works both ways.If Microsoft pays less than 1% div and flatlines for 10 years,doesnt even go down then your return if you x out from the likes of Fundsmith will be zero after their fee,down 10% if you use an IFA,down 60% if you are in drawdown.This is the danger people miss.Companies valued so highly on earnings that what they hand to shareholders is also tiny.Companies that can sustain a divi from a much lower rating can chug along.I notice Fundsmith call them poor companies,etc and they dont want them.Mostly thats because they dont understand the macro and its affects,they think they do,but they dont.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I thought I’d post a quick anecdote from work. We manufacture and sub-contract manufacturing of goods around the world. Speaking to a buyer this week I was told that we continue to have issues buying electrical components in China. I’d expected the backlog to have cleared after the panic of last year but apparently we’re still finding that parts we expect to be in stock on the shelf are unavailable unless we go out and buy in small quantities from the spot market. They don’t expect improvement this year. 

Add to this the continued high prices of containers:8E9A7FC6-C2B1-457A-A694-3C6D65BBBB58.webp.d3fb893dcfdf68217f6fc10ce942af2b.webp

I can’t see the cost of goods going down for a good while. Our second price rise in the last 6 months has just been communicated to our customers (business equipment).

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
33 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Mine are the same, I'll be left money when it's absolutely no use to me, while if it was treated like a business like Harley said, I'd be retired now after the last two years gains, and working full time on my son's wealth

I realised a few years ago that I had accumulated more money than I'd ever need and would be leaving it to my children, after the establishment stole another 40% of what I'd left.  It was a that point I thought there was no point stockpiling more money for a retirement that  might never come and was better spending it all on the children now, everything is pretty much 40% off when you're spending their inheritance on them. Their having a great life, 2 skiing holidays, 2 summer holidays, activities every day of the week, they'll start private school year after this one.  We don't buy them much "stuff" ( other than gold/silver ) and they'll inherit less at the end of the day, but if they are thinking the same as you ( and I ) "it's absolutely no use to me" then at least they've unwittingly benefited from the money they didn't get and will have had a great childhood.   Not everything is about money and how much your BTL portfolio has gone up.

The big problem we all have is wealth preservation.  The tories have created so much uncertainty it's impossible to make sane sensible financial choices now.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, JMD said:

Are these ones your favourites @dnb24? Or maybe they are particularly leveraged to gas? I ask because the sector has lots of debt, and am thinking big risk of mergers/takeovers for many of the smaller indebted ones?   (Decl: I own some of the big ones, kmi, paa, enbridge)

No favourites just biggest players - lots of risk there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Am I being too simplistic?

"Received funding" = taxpayer borrowing again. Not private enterprise.

If it was a good idea, surely it wouldn't need MORE public borrowing. Or is this the beginnings of government pumping liquidity direct to industry? Presumably this is happening via the new infrastructure bank.

Likely the government bit pays some of the groundworks,getting roads,landscaping etc started and paid for.Its a better deal for the government than paying all the locals bennies like they do now.Its funny,but i suspect a lot of this investment is going to places with the highest bennie payments.From the location though you suspect they are hoping to export a lot of the batteries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

"Excluding the 1914-20 and the 1939-53 periods from the post 1870 sample"

Sorry, no, Mr. Hunt, you can't do that ffs. Bad, bad, statistics. He's even rubbed them out on the graph! They are the most relevant periods to now: governments printed money for the 'national effort', suppressed rates, and then deliberately inflated away war debt (apart from the UK choosing deflation after WW1 which was a disaster, and Churchill eventually caved).

Exactly,and the work of macro strategists is to work out when those sort of periods happen and when they end.Most of human history is slow slight dis-inflation with short periods of inflation clear outs.Ignoring/missing them would clean out generational wealth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Transistor Man
1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Mine are the same, I'll be left money when it's absolutely no use to me, while if it was treated like a business like Harley said, I'd be retired now after the last two years gains, and working full time on my son's wealth. They were very poor growing up, and their parents make them make sacrifices, so they think it's a good idea. They just gloss over the 40 year disinflation in the middle which has made them all rich without lifting a finger. It's just an inability to zoom out, you'll only see how relatively easy that period was with hindsight.

I have to give my Dad credit. He sees it, and is very generous to wider family who missed out. He’d fit in on here. hates the taxman.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'd be retired now after the last two years gains, and working full time on my son's wealth

And maybe looking after the grandkids ("social" investing, thus letting the next generation accumulate wealth) or engaging in other such money (and importantly tax saving) activities.  Keeping money in the family and making it grow.  As you say, people just can't zoom out, maybe even soulless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Pishi Sunake urged to give everyone £500 because prices have gone up....because of all the money he's handed out already

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10422877/Rishi-Sunak-urged-families-500-cost-living-bonus.html

 

 

You couldn't make this shit up.

Follow the money.  So he pays us (back our money, real or inflated) to pay the green taxes to pay "them" (the owners of the green assets: spoiler alert, not you!).  See how these things all work?  Expect more.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Follow the money.  So he pays us (back our money, real or inflated) to pay the green taxes to pay "them".  See how it works?

#PonziScam.

If people cant pay their bills they cant pay their bank debts.

See why the ex-banker is  doing it ?

Tax cut for bankers, then hand outs to people to hand it to them.  What a scam.  What a total and utter scam.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interestingly, Egon von Greyerz has popped up twice on my podcasts this week.  On the "Stansberry Investment Hour" and "Palisades Radio".  I've only just listened to the Stansberry one.  A new one for me, lured in by the lovely Daniela Cambone (spoiler alert: she doesn't do the podcast!).  A nice podcast if you ignore the ad.  The interview seemed very timely and weaved a good picture of the current broad picture (spoiler: buy gold!).  https://investorhour.com/

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Just seen this via @norfolkhorn in another thread on and thought it worth posting here: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10425655/Serbia-revokes-Australian-companys-mining-licences-days-Novak-Djokovic-deported.html

Serbia REVOKES Australian mining giant Rio Tinto's licences - just days after tennis star Novak Djokovic was deported and relations turned sour

  • Serbia has revoked Rio Tinto's lithium mining licences after Novak Djokovic saga
  • This occurred a week after Immigration Minister Alex Hawke cancelled his visa
  • Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic agreed with green groups against project

Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic said her government agreed with calls from green groups to stop the $US2.4billion ($A3.3billion) Jadar lithium project which, if completed, would have made Rio a top 10 producer of lithium - an essential mineral for solar and electric car batteries.

'All decisions and all licences have been annulled,' she said. 

'As far as project Jadar is concerned, this is an end.'

Wow!... Many social commentators criticise the Middle East, Asia, for being 'backward' (they are of course but I do also get it that countries, religions, move at different speeds). However, Serbia's actions show I think how little Eastern Europe has really progressed politically/socially, despite that country's planned joining the EU in 2024. And then we have Russia, the 'daddy of all disruptors' (Serbia x1000).                                                                                                                                  Much talk now in media about re-shoring and trade wars? But i think we'll be getting more like 'full on' nationalism?! Chinese and Japanese nationalism has been rising for many years. But closer to home the UK really needs to get a grip and get prepared, I mean the French were even threatening to cut the power lines to Jersey last year... Tbh I'm unsure what the practical policies should be, but the UK seems very exposed in terms of power and commodities, and what else I wonder?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Harley said:

And maybe looking after the grandkids (investing, thus letting the next generation accumulate wealth) or engaging in other such money (and importantly tax saving) activities.  Keeping money in the family and making it grow.  As you say, people just can't zoom out, maybe even soulless.

Like me.I look after the grandkids so no childcare costs,but only if they use the savings to pay the mortgage off and they nearly have,they should be mortgage free at 33 on a nice house.They are also already building ISAs and SIPPS.When my dad goes i might by-pass myself with a lot of the money to them all,but my worry is there that divorce etc comes along and they lose it so might drip feed it to them all instead.Iv got 3 grandkids already and im only 50,my daughters are birthing well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I noticed today Silchester International investors had become the biggest shareholder in Abrdn .They are very shrewd and very quiet,but invest big amounts mostly in value for big US insitutions.They are also big shareholders in Jupiter,MAN Group etc.Iv said before,but i think this sector is hugely undervalued and is in play.I expect Sil are stake building because they see the value,but also that if it doesnt unearth they will force the companies themselves,mergers etc.Marketscreener is great for checking who the biggest shareholders are.

Its a sector that could get slammed in a BK,but for people who can stomach the risk and/or have diverse portfolios maybe worth looking at.Not individual advice etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...