Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

There's no where to hide.

 

Maybe houses are the way to go now....

Buy the dip,they want your coins cheap,we will be rich,its the future,#doge to the moon,

Sinead-Rose aged 21 ,sat in TanBoutique waiting for her brows to be done.

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

It takes a brave or foolish person to humiliate the Serbs.

Alex Hawke may be looking over his shoulder for a while.

Ahh I see... do you mean that your damned if you do, and your 'Jill Dando'ed' if you don't?!

[Chewing Grass]

Pension investments are under a sustained rinsing so far this year, I would have expected a slight improvement but obviously the limpness of omicron has not inspired anything economic for 2022.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Pishi Sunake urged to give everyone £500 because prices have gone up....because of all the money he's handed out already

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10422877/Rishi-Sunak-urged-families-500-cost-living-bonus.html

You couldn't make this shit up.

Why don't these think tanks ever recommend a simple tax cut?

[Harley]

17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I noticed today Silchester International investors had become the biggest shareholder in Abrdn .They are very shrewd and very quiet,but invest big amounts mostly in value for big US insitutions.They are also big shareholders in Jupiter,MAN Group etc.Iv said before,but i think this sector is hugely undervalued and is in play.I expect Sil are stake building because they see the value,but also that if it doesnt unearth they will force the companies themselves,mergers etc.Marketscreener is great for checking who the biggest shareholders are.

Its a sector that could get slammed in a BK,but for people who can stomach the risk and/or have diverse portfolios maybe worth looking at.Not individual advice etc.

As I had said, the share price moves were odd!

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Pension investments are under a sustained rinsing so far this year, I would have expected a slight improvement but obviously the limpness of omicron has not inspired anything economic for 2022.

What, they are treading water or down?  "They" being your usual company like 60:40 pension funds?  Got any p*rn stats?  "Contrarian" plays in SIPPS are doing great but I'm under no illusion this could be a high for now. 

PS: VWRL (Vanguard world equity) is my super-daddy ETF and it's price momentum started weakening in Aug21 on the monthly.  Volume momentum started to follow in Dec21.

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, AWW said:

Why don't these think tanks ever recommend a simple tax cut?

The Establishment likes to complex the chain while we like to decomplex it!  That's because money leaks out of a complex chain to those vested but unnecessary participants in it!

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

There's no where to hide.

 

Maybe houses are the way to go now....

I'm a small HOLDR and kissed much of the last (substantial) pop gains bye bye.  Playdough!  I should have traded as it's not hard.  Things look worse technically than the last dump.  Hope we don't get a lower low on the monthly!  Again, still wondering about the effect of the recent option coverage (like with gold?)!

[Majorpain]

33 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

There's no where to hide.

 

Maybe houses are the way to go now....

100% of Crypto will end up at its intrinsic value of zero.  

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Majorpain said:

100% of Crypto will end up at its intrinsic value of zero.  

[HousePriceMania]

9 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

100% of Crypto will end up at its intrinsic value of zero.  

One of the long time posters on TOS sold up a few months ago and bought a house, or cleared the mortgage.

Fair play to them, someone beat the bankers.

[Majorpain]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

One of the long time posters on TOS sold up a few months ago and bought a house, or cleared the mortgage.

Fair play to them, someone beat the bankers.

Which is fantastic timing, they have swapped some bits of worthless computer code for a house!  What a time to be alive....

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

That made me laugh but that's probably the dullest parody ever.

right on bro, enjoy the ride....

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

"Excluding the 1914-20 and the 1939-53 periods from the post 1870 sample"

Sorry, no, Mr. Hunt, you can't do that ffs. Bad, bad, statistics. He's even rubbed them out on the graph! They are the most relevant periods to now: governments printed money for the 'national effort', suppressed rates, and then deliberately inflated away war debt (apart from the UK choosing deflation after WW1 which was a disaster, and Churchill eventually caved).

I haven't watched the video in full yet, but in some interviews he did last year, Lacey himself admitted that his disinflation prediction won't work if Fed breaks its own rules and creates CBDC's, spends into the economy, etc. I actually think it is an important point he makes about governments breaking their own rules. However in the small part I have watched of the video they do discuss how the Fed is buying mbs's and which is apparently against the US constitutional rules - which sounds kinda serious - and yet they kinda laugh this off... Thing is, I don't think Lacey believes his own theory any more, but is too old to change his mind about his own government going 'banana republic'.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

That made me laugh but that's probably the dullest parody ever.

I didn't think it dull...  but please why do you also think it to be a parody!?!?!?!

[Axeman123]

14 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

David Hunter.s thesis has gotten interesting tonight, reckons Fed mqy not tighten next week as bond rates are tightening in themselves.

My understanding of it was that he thought they would stick to the previous plan of tapering till March and then tightening, whereas a media narrative had been building around a surprise rate hike this month. In other words a purely echo chamber thing.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

but my worry is there that divorce etc comes along and they lose it so might drip feed it to them all instead

From observed experience I think this is a wise decision.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

Why don't these think tanks ever recommend a simple tax cut?

Because its a transparent policy [simple tax cut], and so the general public might just be able to 'see through' it.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Juniper said:

I thought I’d post a quick anecdote from work. We manufacture and sub-contract manufacturing of goods around the world. Speaking to a buyer this week I was told that we continue to have issues buying electrical components in China. I’d expected the backlog to have cleared after the panic of last year but apparently we’re still finding that parts we expect to be in stock on the shelf are unavailable unless we go out and buy in small quantities from the spot market. They don’t expect improvement this year. 

Add to this the continued high prices of containers:

I can’t see the cost of goods going down for a good while. Our second price rise in the last 6 months has just been communicated to our customers (business equipment).

 

 

David Murrin, another macro commentator I've recently become aware of, says China is covertly pivoting toward supplying its own domestic consumer economy, a trend that will continue because it's own global trade will decrease going forward. He even thinks the China container supply chain/container port 'issues', happening it is said because of covid etc, are actually being used as cover by China in order to hide what it is doing.                   

[Option5]

1 minute ago, JMD said:

David Murrin, another macro commentator I've recently become aware of, says China is covertly pivoting toward supplying its own domestic consumer economy, a trend that will continue because it's own global trade will decrease going forward. He even thinks the China container supply chain/container port 'issues', happening it is said because of covid etc, are actually being used as cover by China in order to hide what it is doing.                   

It makes sense, provide a service or product at a lower price than your customers can get elsewhere, then when you want control over your customers restrict or stop supply.

China - electronics, car parts etc.

Russia - gas

A simple variation on the "honeytrap" blackmail ploy.

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

I haven't watched the video in full yet, but in some interviews he did last year, Lacey himself admitted that his disinflation prediction won't work if Fed breaks its own rules and creates CBDC's, spends into the economy, etc. I actually think it is an important point he makes about governments breaking their own rules. However in the small part I have watched of the video they do discuss how the Fed is buying mbs's and which is apparently against the US constitutional rules - which sounds kinda serious - and yet they kinda laugh this off... Thing is, I don't think Lacey believes his own theory any more, but is too old to change his mind about his own government going 'banana republic'.

The US Constitution is worth jack shit.

Everyone in the US from President to Bell Boy breaks the constitution every day simply by using paper $s.

But it's a lovely vague argument; That's unconstitutional!

[HousePriceMania]

41 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

My understanding of it was that he thought they would stick to the previous plan of tapering till March and then tightening, whereas a media narrative had been building around a surprise rate hike this month. In other words a purely echo chamber thing.

Sounds like the UK.  Everyone set for a November rise but they strung it out one more month.

[Axeman123]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Didn’t he say we’d have a pull back before melt up? I can’t see his prediction of SP500 to 6000 coming to fruition without masses more QE. 
IR rates are rising, banks are tightening (for now), FAANGs/tech peaked in November FFS. I can’t see where this melt up will be coming from. To me it looks like the tables have started to turn.

Covid reopening and the fed sticking to its plan for the first rate rise in March, rather than the rumoured emergency January one.

I am considering putting this year's ISA money in an S&P500 ETF, the question is today or Monday? 

[Loki]

Any one got any thoughts on Aclara Resources, the spin off from Hochschild Mining?  It plummeted shortly after listing.  Only wondering as my Jupiter Gold and Silver fund holding seems to have turned the corner at last

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

The US Constitution is worth jack shit.

Everyone in the US from President to Bell Boy breaks the constitution every day simply by using paper $s.

But it's a lovely vague argument; That's unconstitutional!

But In the US the constitution is far from being a vague argument. However i do get it that it is a belief system, rather like money itself, but there are imho an increasing number of freedom of speech/freedom to bear arms, type Americans that treat those type of constitutional beliefs very seriously. For example, currently many US states are beginning to pull back powers from their federal government, its being done because state laws can override national ones, the constitution allows for this, and much more, including competing presidents (as an outlier threat!!)..  so I'd argue definitely not a vague concept, in fact im predicting a constitutional crises and a subsequent new settlement.