Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Noallegiance]

38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Just couldn't resist it could they 

It must be "Bring out the twats" day...

Bank of England governor warns of consequences if wages and price-setting reflects surging inflation (msn.com)

Because markets should not attempt to respond to the inflation caused by......the Bank of England!

[moneyscam]

24 minutes ago, ONC said:

Thanks @Moneyscam really enjoyed listening to this. I remember seeing his video in 2021 calling a US “everything “bubble (too early again), now the bubble is much bigger.

In his previous video he talked about the “confidence termites” in the dot.com bubble in 2000. First the really craze companies collapsed, but SP500 held up. Six months  later The “termites” eat into the next layer,  then the next, finally eating into the confidence of blue chip SP500 companies, then big falls

Is this similar to now, the “confidence termites” have eaten into

1. Meme/Robin Hood stock maddness has ended

2. Crypto maddness seems to  have peaked, on way down

3. Developing tech companies ( eg Ark) have fallen hard.

4. Bigger tech companies down

will the “confidence termites” now eat into the wider market, like in 2000??

 

In this latest video, Jeremy says he thinks we have passed the peak of the excess/maddness. I am now getting that feeling too. The atmosphere is feeling less speculative/crazy/mad. 
 

I have been following David Hunter closely, but this video just got me thinking more. I start to doubt DH’s melt up. I am going to hedge my bets more and hold more cash. I liquidated 10% this morning, mainly PM mining stocks, which might be hit hard in any 1929 style collapse (still hold 20% PM miners).

 

 

 

 

Glad you enjoyed it. I myself too am thinking I may have been a little bit too much influenced by Dave H. When I look at the US market internals i.e the breadth of the market many stocks are already well below their 52 week highs and the indices are being held up by a narrower and narrower range of stocks which usually is a classic sign of nearing a top.

However I would me much more comfortable calling a top with Vix at 16-18 range rather than the 30 we have now so I don't think right now is the time at least for me to be putting on my hedges for a potential BK.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, moneyscam said:

Glad you enjoyed it. I myself too am thinking I may have been a little bit too much influenced by Dave H. When I look at the US market internals i.e the breadth of the market many stocks are already well below their 52 week highs and the indices are being held up by a narrower and narrower range of stocks which usually is a classic sign of nearing a top.

However I would me much more comfortable calling a top with Vix at 16-18 range rather than the 30 we have now so I don't think right now is the time at least for me to be putting on my hedges for a potential BK.

I think your last sentence sums up investment decision-making perfectly.

We can 'um' and 'ah', but when it comes to putting our money where our mouth is, it shows us up!

Tough gig this responsibility shit innit!

[Harley]

3 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

This is outside of an isa? I dont think Moscow exchange is allowed within from what I read on HMRC. 

i think my gaz is german listed but i.m not 100% sure lol, i should really research better what i.m buying haha

Yes, outside of a tax wrapper.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

DB is the richest man in Durham.

DC was never as good as Marvel.

Took my other half out last night local pub named after a Grand National winner,Steak Tuesdays.£15.95 for two 10oz rump steak meals and two glasses of wine ,lunchtime is two meals for £12.You can be rich here for 1/3 of southern prices.

[Democorruptcy]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Took my other half out last night local pub named after a Grand National winner,Steak Tuesdays.£15.95 for two 10oz rump steak meals and two glasses of wine ,lunchtime is two meals for £12.You can be rich here for 1/3 of southern prices.

Somebody piled on the local winner and bought a pub out of the cash?

https://grandnational.horseracing.guide/1855/redalligator/

 

[CannonFodder]

Perhaps something a bit different if you bear with me.

Please have a read of this article and bear in mind a Victorian £1 coin was a gold sovereign so multiply everything by £350 the price of the same coin today.

There was 240d in a pound then so a penny or 1d should be thought of as £1.25 in todays money.

Incomes are before and after tax as income tax didnt exist for some years in 1800s and was 3% for incomes over £150 in others so negligible. Think of it as post tax income.

https://www.oldbaileyonline.org/static/Coinage.jsp

Has much changed in the last 200 years other than the 350 multipler is the question.

Edit, can just start reading from wages section and cost of living section

 

[wherebee]

I'd recommend that you all take date stamped screenshots of your holdings and investments.

If one of the scenarios pans out - attacks on financial services infrastructure - some brokers/banks might be in trouble.  Nothing more useful than evidence of exactly what you had.

[Chewing Grass]

5 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'd recommend that you all take date stamped screenshots of your holdings and investments.

If one of the scenarios pans out - attacks on financial services infrastructure - some brokers/banks might be in trouble.  Nothing more useful than evidence of exactly what you had.

Do that with your pensions as well.

[BadAlchemy]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I'd recommend that you all take date stamped screenshots of your holdings and investments.

If one of the scenarios pans out - attacks on financial services infrastructure - some brokers/banks might be in trouble.  Nothing more useful than evidence of exactly what you had.

Download the contract notes too. In HL under Portfolio Overview, History you can pull the PDFs down and save them. They have your name and address, purchase date, number of shares bought, price paid, contract reference and so on.

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

It must be "Bring out the twats" day...

Bank of England governor warns of consequences if wages and price-setting reflects surging inflation (msn.com)

Because markets should not attempt to respond to the inflation caused by......the Bank of England!

I'll be asking for 10% next month aiming for 7% and am quite happy to resign if my employer tries to take the piss as this clown suggests.

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'll be asking for 10% next month aiming for 7% and am quite happy to resign if my employer tries to take the piss as this clown suggests.

10% across the board at work in April, I will be looking to wrangle a bit more than 10%.

[AWW]

3 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

10% across the board at work in April, I will be looking to wrangle a bit more than 10%.

Interesting, can I ask what industry?

[Joncrete Cungle]

Just now, AWW said:

Interesting, can I ask what industry?

Agricultural

[ONC]

1 hour ago, moneyscam said:

Glad you enjoyed it. I myself too am thinking I may have been a little bit too much influenced by Dave H. When I look at the US market internals i.e the breadth of the market many stocks are already well below their 52 week highs and the indices are being held up by a narrower and narrower range of stocks which usually is a classic sign of nearing a top.

However I would me much more comfortable calling a top with Vix at 16-18 range rather than the 30 we have now so I don't think right now is the time at least for me to be putting on my hedges for a potential BK.

It could be that the SP500 already topped in December ~4800?  But  As many on hear say, there is little point trying to call the “top”. I do think  as Jeremy says it will head below trend (~2400) at some point(2022)?
 

Jeremy recommends non_USA value stocks, which Is where I am ~70% invested (oil, Tabaco, telecoms etc etc). I am now 20% PM miners, 10% cash. Maybe moving to 20% cash over next few months.

I still remember my FRUSTRATION in March 2020.  In Feb 2020 I had a substantial amount in cash, and started buying when the market was falling.  However, I ran out of cash before the bottom!!. I had a  very unhappy week watching the market fall further and having NO CASH to buy anything with. 
 

I saw Berkshire Hathaway was now nearly 30% in cash, so looks like Buffet is getting ready.( bottom of table $149billion)
https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

(However he also has 44% in Apple, that could be a dangerous.??)

 

[wherebee]

22 minutes ago, ONC said:

I saw Berkshire Hathaway was now nearly 30% in cash, so looks like Buffet is getting ready.( bottom of table $149billion)
https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

(However he also has 44% in Apple, that could be a dangerous.??)

 

I think one problem he has is that everyone watches his trades - if he started to offload apple in any sizeable amounts, no doubt he'd spook and cause a crash in that stock.

I have no idea why any asset manager with his profile would take such a large position in such a watched stock.  You know you're going to be driving market sentiment up AND down.

[ONC]

Sorry to just correct myself, Berkshire Hathaway of total assets

31% in cash

30% Apple

https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I have no idea why any asset manager with his profile would take such a large position in such a watched stock.  You know you're going to be driving market sentiment up AND down.

I think you answered your own question.

[Bricormortis]

Nasdaq took a good spanking again.

[Pip321]

On 22/02/2022 at 16:29, moneyscam said:

Great insightful conversation with Jeremy Grantham of GMO. Worth the half hour watch as it touches on the themes of this thread. He classes the current market as a 'super bubble' particularly the US whose time is running out.

 

Excellent. His description of the evil that low interest rates brings really summarises my own thoughts. It’s a manipulation of capitalism rather than a ‘looney leftie’ ideal. Low rates increase asset prices which benefit those with assets…..however, in the US the bottom 50% own almost no assets and the top 10% own a 1/3. Then taxation of capital v taxation of labour ensures those with capital are protected, gain more power and indeed are now able to influence government and regulation. 

Capitalism’s an ideal (as is socialism in its purest sense) and we are so far away from that with cronyism rife that it could well be the downfall of huge parts of the system.

Less the emotive…..I thought it was really interesting he believes there to be a super bubble but mentions outside the US (ie the UK and emerging markets) there is at least better value.

For those who like the emotive there are 2 great film/documentaries on Netflix. ‘Saving capitalism’ and ‘Inside Job’.  I find it useful to listen to bulls, bears and lots of differing viewpoints to draw balance of what my own position is. Thanks for highlighting Mr Scam. 😉👍

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, moneyscam said:

Glad you enjoyed it. I myself too am thinking I may have been a little bit too much influenced by Dave H. When I look at the US market internals i.e the breadth of the market many stocks are already well below their 52 week highs and the indices are being held up by a narrower and narrower range of stocks which usually is a classic sign of nearing a top.

However I would me much more comfortable calling a top with Vix at 16-18 range rather than the 30 we have now so I don't think right now is the time at least for me to be putting on my hedges for a potential BK.

You're right,market breadth has been poor in the US of late but it's actually been that way for some time with the fangs pulling the broader indices higher.The tell for me,and what has my interest is the pummelling some of the more hyped stocks have taken lately eg zoom,ARK,that fake meat one.These are classic market tells that we're nearing the end of the runway imho.Whether that means we head south within Q1...unlikely-Q2...possible but unlikely,Q3...tail end,probably where my moeny is right now.

For a substanital melt up a la DH I think we need to see some value stocks take over the running to lead the broader indices higher.

I lsiten to a whole host of people like DH ,Grantham,Dalio and others,not least some of the luminati on here,but I move moeny on my own calls.

 

 

2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I think your last sentence sums up investment decision-making perfectly.

We can 'um' and 'ah', but when it comes to putting our money where our mouth is, it shows us up!

Tough gig this responsibility shit innit!

Absolutely,it's when people start pushing sell buttons that it  stops being noise.

[Plan-b]

47 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

I think you answered your own question.

Yes he's talking his book 

[CannonFodder]

Am looking at nightly figures, its struck me that oil this high with higher dxy must be causing some pain somewhere.

Dollars will be hard to find and buy to keep show on the road worldwide.

They need to print more and soon or this will cause a slump worldwide. Emerging markets must be getting a kicking finding enough cash to buy expensive dollars to then buy expensive oil

The situation with ukraine not helping. They need to bring dxy or oil price down soon.

Wondering what the hive mind thinks and which they will go for

[sancho panza]

YTD very telling.Next month or two will be crucial to see if we get new leaders in the main US markets,otherwise it's game on.

[Sugarlips]

 

Meanwhile..