Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Metalheadz said:

I think a lot of people are going to be hurt buying this Russia "dip". The ruble could be toilet paper in a few weeks. POLY is in a downtrend since Sep 2020 I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot clown pole.

For every one of these Russian companies getting jammed up with sanctions there are 5 companies elsewhere that will directly benefit.

I'm buying tankers, fertiliser, nickel, aluminium co's and sleeping like a baby.

Beautiful to read!  Wham.  The essence of a thinking investor right there.  You could even be right! 

PS:  BTW my tanker stocks did very well last week with a few more coming on my radar!

[moneyscam]

16 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Or you set in place ownership transfer under the table.

What if china rocks up to the Fed and BoE tomorrow and says - hang on, that money is OURS - here is a contract from december where russia swapped that for equal amounts of reserves in Beijing.

What the fuck would the western puppets do then/

Knowing our lot try to fuck China over and freeze their western held reserves! . I wouldn't put anything past them at this stage.

[Harley]

58 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Look at it this way, we all need Russian hydrocarbons. Without their oil, the world goes into a ~5mbpd deficit, inventories dissapear in months, world goes into a depression, oil is $300+ a barrel. Gas wise, Europe freezes. Those hydrocarbons have to enter the system, there is no other source to replace them. Even if all sold to China, leaving other supplies for us. 

So Putin can say I'll sell you 100 barrels of oil for an oz of gold. Nothing stopping this. It means that oil in dollar terms is suddenly $20, or gold is $10,000. Buyers will scramble to find gold to buy this cheap oil, right? And more importantly, they've already been doing so while it was cheap (central banks have). Physical gold gets drained from the west and goes to Russia. Petrodollar system smashed.

I think elaborate deal. You can't print oil, and I don't think the western politicians get this yet. I've seen too many "we should frack the UK" comments for my liking, no, you can't. It's all a bit bombastic and I have an uneasy feeling that the same pro lockdown crowd are the ones now pro Ukraine Russia bad tell Saudi to open de taps frack Yorkshire and just put solar panels on every roof. This is far from being played out. 

Great, thanks.  The Grant paper posted upthread (thanks) plus some other sages are the only ones who comprehend how seismic all this could be.  A perfect storm from every of very many angles which has been in the making for years.  A massive reality check incomming about a lot and the potential for massive change.  The only question is whether this is the collapse "they" think they want for their agenda.  If so, their hubris is off the scale and the ultimate in a canute style technocracy.  I now see how we have cycles of war.  They are based on cycles of such absolute folly.

[leonardratso]

i bet gold/oil end up in the red, as per usual.

[leonardratso]

anyway, i took half of fundsmiths house money last week so i can buy stuff with it, however, and ive been thinking this for a long time to be honest, i really dont know what to buy, im not talking investments here, im talking real world stuff, not interested in cars/gadgets, not interested in clothes/fashion stuff, dont care what the neighbours think of me, could do with losing some weight so luxury food and shit like that have no interest to me, just basics which ive always got stock piled anyway, cash has little use to me apart from paying bills and keeping the lights on, all in hand, so im pretty stuffed really.

[Harley]

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who remembers the end of communist ussr, has the feeling of that about what we might be seeing here... end of rigged market capitalist usa. 

 

Nothing lasts forever 

Yep.  Even got me thinking of Kissenger and the Petrodollar (OK even I was too young at the time!).  Just imagine if it was all about to change.  I wish I was on a beach somewhere, preferably Raul's neighbour!

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Metalheadz said:

Some Fresh Weekend Doom:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/140nSn1drmplvORbECW_rfScStnT54tUk/view

The Grant Williams Podcast: The End Game #30 - Mike Green

The End Game returns after a year-end hiatus and who better to mark that than our first returning guest of the series, the always-dazzling Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management.

In his first appearance back in July 2020, Mike left all those who listened dumbfounded with much of his insight as he explained the rise of passive and the problems it creates for markets unaccustomed to such a dynamic.

This time, Mike turns his attention to politics, geopolitics and markets as well as updating his thoughts on the influence passive investment strategies are exerting over risk markets in every corner of the globe. Once again, Mike demonstrates why he’s such a crucial voice in our search for The End Game..
 

Interesting listen but pity Mike Green didn't expand more on his thesis about emerging markets not doing well from here. Does anyone more about Green's thinking here? Reminded me a little of Victor Shvets, though his view is extreme whereby em's ultimately require Marshall plan style bailout by the West (think it interesting, and imo adds to credibility, that a Asia banker would say such negative things about his own home market).

[Harley]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

Interesting listen but pity Mike Green didn't expand more on his thesis about emerging markets not doing well from here. Does anyone more about Green's thinking here? Reminded me a little of Victor Shvets, though his view is extreme whereby em's ultimately require Marshall plan style bailout by the West (think it interesting, and imo adds to credibility, that a Asia banker would say such negative things about his own home market).

I must listen given I'm not there.  I've increased my EM exposure as it was touted as a growth area (unlike the US) and I agreed.  Indeed Russia was touted as one of the possible best performing markets this year as it has been.  I do still wonder if that will come to pass.  That does though depend of the abilities of the likes of Boris and Biden!  Maybe that's the problem - geo-politics re. the big members like Russia, China, maybe India.

[mcdongle]

Thank god i live in NZ all this is not going to affect us at all...

Minister for Pies  [ you have to live here ] Megan Woods has said.

In a statement this afternoon, Woods said any resulting curtailment of Russian oil supply would not affect New Zealand's fuel supply.

"New Zealand does not purchase any oil or oil products from Russia so would not be directly affected if Russian oil supply is curtailed," she said.

Then Ardern said.

In a broadcast statement this afternoon, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand's imports of Russian oil historically had been limited to "about 20 percent.... 

[wherebee]

35 minutes ago, mcdongle said:

Thank god i live in NZ all this is not going to affect us at all...

Minister for Pies  [ you have to live here ] Megan Woods has said.

In a statement this afternoon, Woods said any resulting curtailment of Russian oil supply would not affect New Zealand's fuel supply.

"New Zealand does not purchase any oil or oil products from Russia so would not be directly affected if Russian oil supply is curtailed," she said.

Then Ardern said.

In a broadcast statement this afternoon, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said New Zealand's imports of Russian oil historically had been limited to "about 20 percent.... 

Jesus.  both the speaker and the audience in NZ are complete fuckwits.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I must listen given I'm not there.  I've increased my EM exposure as it was touted as a growth area (unlike the US) and I agreed.  Indeed Russia was touted as one of the possible best performing markets this year as it has been.  I do still wonder if that will come to pass.  That does though depend of the abilities of the likes of Boris and Biden!  Maybe that's the problem - geo-politics re. the big members like Russia, China, maybe India.

If you do listen to the podcast, the problem I had with Mike Green was his frustrating lack of timescales. For example,  Green spoke at length about 'transitory' inflation, only to concede that the rate might not drop much, plus his examples included crop yields which kind of implied he was really talking in years at least. Tbh It was a long segment of the whole interview, so I may have missed a crucial bit that did in fact explain his timings, so if you listen would be interested in your take. Anyway, I'm thinking, in terms of timings, could be same for his EM prediction, ie those markets might be good until end of cycle. I don't know - maybe I just think Green equivocates far too much?

[Festival]

Anyone got a view on how the oligarch sanctioning is going to play out at Chelsea. Will Abramovich be allowed to remain as owner or will a sale process be forced by the govt?

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.rt.com/business/550810-russian-central-bank-rate-20/

Interest rates to 20%, 80% of foreign currency income must be converted to rubles.

Game on.

[BadAlchemy]

In other news, I just noticed that GOG appears to be tradable again as they released their full year results (finally!) on Thursday last week...

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/go-ahead-records-strong-performance-in-long-delayed-results--9281573.html

"(Sharecast News) - Go-Ahead Group reported a "strong" financial performance in its bus and Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR) operations in its much-delayed full-year results on Thursday, offset by challenges in its international rail division and its former Southeastern rail franchise.
It recorded an adjusted operating profit of £115.5m for the 12 months ended 3 July 2021, up from a restated £76.4m for 2020, as its statutory loss before tax narrowed to £6.9m from a restated £39.5m."

[nirvana]

BREAKING: Russian Central Banks jacks interest rates to a record 20% !!!

 

how about retiring to Russia? 

Soz @ThoughtCriminalalready posted, I'll STFU for the rest of the week, have a nice Russian lady instead 

 

[geordie_lurch]

35 minutes ago, nirvana said:

BREAKING: Russian Central Banks jacks interest rates to a record 20% !!!

 

how about retiring to Russia? 

Soz @ThoughtCriminalalready posted, I'll STFU for the rest of the week, have a nice Russian lady instead 

 

I reckon she would drain your assets quicker than a USA / UK sanction

[MrXxxx]

Not sure if anyone has posted this yet:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bps-bruising-russian-exit-almost-worth-pain-2022-02-28/

[Boon]

Will the Russian interest rate rise have much effect?

Suspect there may be more rate hikes needed.

[geordie_lurch]

According to hl.co.uk Shell is going up BP hasn't moved

EDIT: WTAF

[Lightscribe]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

According to hl.co.uk Shell is going up BP hasn't moved

EDIT: WTAF

HL doesn’t display any changes for the first 15mins

[Boon]

Maybe around 350p opening. 

[geordie_lurch]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

HL doesn’t display any changes for the first 15mins

350 seems to have held and most I saw was around -7% so don't think my stop losses (profits) triggered. I'm pleasantly surprised

EDIT One of them should have definitely been triggered but yet again HL's tech doesn't actually work when there's high activity so yet again as the little people in the event of trying to get out the door quickly we will be trampled by the big boys 

[DurhamBorn]

I said 9% was the value if shares were worth zero,maybe they will get a few rubles 

[Lightscribe]

My stop loss triggered on POLY, it’s a bloodbath.

[DoINeedOne]

Bought POLY 5.4 with mini ladder next buy 5 

Im happy to take the risk and hold for years its won't even be no more than 5% of my funds