Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[JMD]

20 hours ago, Loki said:

I stocked up before vat loophole closed with Brexit. I hate paying vat almost as much as Durhamborn

 

Before the Brexit loophole closed, did anyone here panic (go mental) and buy a 5kg silver coin bar?...  Asking for a friend!!                                                                                                                                                                         Yep, 176oz and sold very near to spot price, 'coin' bars were sold vat exempt just like silver coins at that time. Came with Fijian Mint currency certificate to 'prove' it was a coin?!... Funny old game this finance industry!

[BadAlchemy]

Good discussion from George Gammon and Brent Johnson, again, discussing dollar strength and geopolitics... as the US flexes its global reserve muscle (!) to inflict pain on rest of world, attempting to force other countries to choose a side... interesting viewpoint.

 

[nirvana]

interesting bounce on some miners lol

ie Cassiar +15%

Santacruz +23%

fuk the coins think I'll just buy the miners... 

@kibucor anyone else....50k how would you split that?

cheers

NB no Great Panther Dogshit thanks 

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, nirvana said:

interesting bounce on some miners lol

ie Cassiar +15%

Santacruz +23%

fuk the coins think I'll just buy the miners... 

@kibucor anyone else....50k how would you split that?

cheers

NB no Great Panther Dogshit thanks 

49K in bitcoin

1K in dogecoin.

Comeon, you know you want to. those miners will go 2x -ve next week, with the shitcoins it will only take hours to achieve the same effect, think of the adrenaline rush.

[nirvana]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

think of the adrenaline rush

I get that with NAS bro, come on, I came here for sensible suggestions from the 'grown ups' lol 

PS interesting Gold dipped under 1800, did some genius mention 1780 again? ahem 

[Errol]

Really funny the way news articles are still representing bitcoin as gold:

https://news.sky.com/story/bitcoin-rallies-slightly-but-still-set-for-record-losing-streak-after-terra-stablecoin-collapse-12612304

[Bobthebuilder]

34 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I get that with NAS bro, come on, I came here for sensible suggestions from the 'grown ups' lol 

PS interesting Gold dipped under 1800, did some genius mention 1780 again? ahem 

I have done ok with Harmony and Yamana in the past, a couple of the few stocks I trade. Price wise, they do seem to mirror each other most the time.

[Calcutta]

Strange day today. I have a watchlist that covers a fair spread of companies. And today almost all of them are green. On a Friday is unusual as well. 

A little bounce after yesterday is understandable but this is definatly odd. 

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks. Do any of the big providers give access, do you know?

What do you mean by big providers? Royal Mint...

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/natural-gas-classed-green-investment-boost-north-sea/

[snaga]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/natural-gas-classed-green-investment-boost-north-sea/

Buy BP and Shell before all those ethical funds pile in 🤣

[BadAlchemy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/13/natural-gas-classed-green-investment-boost-north-sea/

 

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

What is it with the drillers? They just can't help shooting and blowing things up. There was one in my time of the new guy in a camp in the outback in oz, whose turn it was to make a new hole for the dunny. And why use a shovel when you have dynamite? He was told to put it a little further back from camp, which he did, just beyond the old one. But used too much exploisve, and blew the old toilet up, spattering the whole camp with a weeks worth of hot shite 

But of course the Russians win the prize, with their innovation in how to sort out a blown out well. It's common to use explosives to do this too of course, because...explosives! Yaay! (ok they actually suck all the air out of the fire to be fair). The USSR was never short of heavy explosives, but for reasons best known to themselves, they decided to nuke the well. Yes, they drilled a second hole aiming at the troublesome one, and popped a nuclear bomb down to close it off, which it duly did. And they did this more than once!

CP, that makes me recall an interview I once saw with a Russian geologist, where he said that Russia created underground oil or gas (can't remember which) storage caverns using small nuclear bombs. The heat of the explosion also sealed the chamber, two jobs completed for the price of one!                                                                                                         I believe these activities were carried out over many decades. But my question would be - surely international nuclear treaties ban this type of thing? Ok i think we are talking about the ex USSR here, not the present day Russian Federation, but thing is I can't remember these type of events/stories ever being reported upon here in the West?

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm wrestling with this too. I don't trust most of the ETFs, but for my SIPP I have no choice so I go with Sprott. Seems to be unallocated, they issue serial numbers, and you can withdraw the physical (if your holding is reasonably big).

I'm going through the thought experiment of "what will happen in a gold revaluation event". This might seem like pie in the sky, but it has happened before, and the time for it happening again is getting closer imo.

My thinking is:

- Paper gold will obviously not benefit. It'll be like a company issuing a ton of equity and your holding just gets massively diluted.

- Physical gold in your possesion - fine

- Sprott physical gold - should be fine? 

One I'm struggling with is miners as a proxy for physical gold. I know they have all sorts of other risks, but what happens to their value if gold gets revalued? I mean they do own physical gold, in the ground, and it suddenly goes way above their AISC. Of course the ones hedged won't benefit, unless all the paper shorts get diluted with the paper longs. Did paper gold exist last time gold was revalued? Probably not, what a mess it is. What about streaming companies like WPM I wonder...

Short answer is physical gold in posession, but that doesn't help my SIPP allocation!

Ref the miners,I look at it this way,they are the vehicle that dodgy politicians will use to get money out.

Your average basement dwellers thinks in terms of phsyical gold and owning more than we can carry is beyond our means.For people who lead govts,given the scale of the the gold they need to carry with them is beyond a suitcase,they need equities.

AS you say they leverage to the price nicely and having watched Zimbabwean and South African miners of yaers,the politicians generally are well aware of how innefieicnt the digging will get.

There have been periods historically of wide scale nationalisation but they generally end up as some sort of private public partenrship ie the miners dig the stuff up,the pols tax the divi and own shares

Interesting that during the 30's ban the miners were the only trade.

I msut say tho, a big driver of our spray n pray on the sector is geogrpahical spread and focusing particualrly on US/Canada(ahtouhg witnessing Trudeau this last year he's more htird world than Old Bob himsef)

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, kibuc said:

I don't want to step into the territory of providing advice as I have neither the qualifications nor the track record required. I've used that recent drop to narrow down my portfolio from 17 all the way to 10, with 2 still in the why-do-I-hold-such-garbage, looks-mediocre-but-reacts-to-silver-spot-like-a-rabbit-on-extasy category, while the remaining 8 passin at least the initial check, from medium to very high conviction. I think if you look back at my posts you'll be able to see at least some of those names and an explaination why I like them.

It's always dyor on here K.We all know that.Gets said enough as well.

Must say I always appreciate your insights as you're one of the more informed mining tradesr on hre and I jsut use the titbits I pick up to do my own research and set my trades as I jsut don't have that understanding of the ming sector

Intersting to see things like Abra up 15% at one point today.Alexco got a nice 6% bounce too.

We picked up some more DSV,Abra,NGD,BVN(dog poo sandwich but very cheap dog poo sandwich imho),HOC,SMD today striaght out of the traps,also some Anglogold and kinross calls.Looking to add more Monday I suspectBeena heack of a week for miners all in.

[Transistor Man]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

CP, that makes me recall an interview I once saw with a Russian geologist, where he said that Russia created underground oil or gas (can't remember which) storage caverns using small nuclear bombs. The heat of the explosion also sealed the chamber, 

The projects were called “Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy”!

All together, the Program 7 conducted 115 nuclear explosions. Among them:

39 explosions for the purpose of geological exploration (trying to find new natural gasdeposits by studying seismic waves produced by small nuclear explosions)

25 explosions for intensification of oil and gas debits

22 explosions for creating underground storage for natural gas

5 explosions for extinguishing large natural gas fountains that were burning[3]

4 explosions for creating channels and dams (including the Chagan test in Kazakhstan, and the Taiga test on the potential route of the Pechora–Kama Canal)

2 explosions for crushing ore in open-pit mines

2 explosions for creating underground storage for toxic wastes

1 explosion to facilitate coal mining in an underground mine

19 explosions were performed for research purposes (studying possible migration of the radioactivity from the place of the explosions).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Explosions_for_the_National_Economy

 

Crazy stuff. 

[jamtomorrow]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Thanks. Do any of the big providers give access, do you know?

I don't - I had a quick look at some larger providers (can't remember which for definite) but the carrying costs were just too much for the amount I had.

When I did eventually find a smaller provider where the costs made sense, I got the distinct impression I was their first PM punter. Didn't bother me one bit though - as long as the SIPP wrapper is properly constituted and they don't fat-finger the purchase, I'm happy.

At the time they didn't give out the BV account credentials, but I was able to verify the holding via the nickname on the account and the BV daily audit.

Latterly (and presumably because they've picked up more PM customers and have had to get their act together) they've started providing credentials so you can execute your own trades. You just have to sign an undertaking to say you won't touch anything but gold.

*Vaguely* recall AJ Bell was on my original list. And there's a list of providers on the BV site, do any of those qualify as "big"?

https://www.bullionvault.com/info/gold-sipp-pension-plan

The SIPP administrators who wrap your gold investment are FCA regulated financial businesses which are independent of BullionVault. Several SIPP providers enable their clients to buy through BullionVault. Get in touch with your own provider or one of the providers below to take the next step.

• Mattioli Woods
• Hornbuckle
• Barnett Waddingham
• Killik & Co
• James Hay Partnership
• Suffolk Life/Curtis Banks
• Rowanmoor

[Lightscribe]

Just in case anyone hasn’t got the gist over the last two years on how the governments work yet. 

They all have the same narrative and agenda to work to (albeit health, economic etc), it’s just the approach they take to sell it to their own public.

Here in the UK, we have a conservative government that by its fundamentals has to look as if it’s defending against this kind of thing. In order to give that illusion it has to favour the ‘good cop bad cop’ routine.

For example:

A bit more socialism (WEF stepping stone) gets planned to be implemented (US Dems leading the way).

Boris/Rishi/Javid laughs it off and says it’s not going to happen in the UK.

The rest of the government represents ‘the people’ and says this is what the public want whilst using the media as a tool to whip up anger in the NPCs. (People that can’t think for themselves)

Look at those oily rich evil investor bastards, with all their wind energy and hydrogen investment. My maccy-Ds Big Mac meal has gone up to £6.50! 

Boris/Rishi/Javid then does a u-turn and implements it anyway. It was what the public demanded after all.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10762487/amp/Rishi-Sunak-hints-U-turn-windfall-tax-energy-firms-months-dismissing-Labour-levy.html

[feed]

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Just in case anyone hasn’t got the gist over the last two years on how the governments work yet. 

They all have the same narrative and agenda to work to (albeit health, economic etc), it’s just the approach they take to sell it to their own public.

Here in the UK, we have a conservative government that by its fundamentals has to look as if it’s defending against this kind of thing. In order to give that illusion it has to favour the ‘good cop bad cop’ routine.

For example:

A bit more socialism (WEF stepping stone) gets planned to be implemented (US Dems leading the way).

Boris/Rishi/Javid laughs it off and says it’s not going to happen in the UK.

The rest of the government represents ‘the people’ and says this is what the public want whilst using the media as a tool to whip up anger in the NPCs. (People that can’t think for themselves)

Look at those oily rich evil investor bastards, with all their wind energy and hydrogen investment. My maccy-Ds Big Mac meal has gone up to £6.50! 

Boris/Rishi/Javid then does a u-turn and implements it anyway. It was what the public demanded after all.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10762487/amp/Rishi-Sunak-hints-U-turn-windfall-tax-energy-firms-months-dismissing-Labour-levy.html

Like that tosser from Tesco.Multi-millionaire silver spoon type wants to steal my capital yet i come from and most of my family still live in the poorest town in England.Maybe if he wants to steal from my family i should go and kick the shite out of him and help myself to his property?.Where are the government ministers showing most of BPs divis go into poor peoples pensions,and a lot of middle England?.Well until that bitch from NEST sold them all at £2.

Of course no mention of the massive fees rich landowners get for sticking windmills on their land not fit for anything else,paid for with huge levies on electric bills

[Sasquatch]

56 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I don't - I had a quick look at some larger providers (can't remember which for definite) but the carrying costs were just too much for the amount I had.

When I did eventually find a smaller provider where the costs made sense, I got the distinct impression I was their first PM punter. Didn't bother me one bit though - as long as the SIPP wrapper is properly constituted and they don't fat-finger the purchase, I'm happy.

At the time they didn't give out the BV account credentials, but I was able to verify the holding via the nickname on the account and the BV daily audit.

Latterly (and presumably because they've picked up more PM customers and have had to get their act together) they've started providing credentials so you can execute your own trades. You just have to sign an undertaking to say you won't touch anything but gold.

*Vaguely* recall AJ Bell was on my original list. And there's a list of providers on the BV site, do any of those qualify as "big"?

https://www.bullionvault.com/info/gold-sipp-pension-plan

The SIPP administrators who wrap your gold investment are FCA regulated financial businesses which are independent of BullionVault. Several SIPP providers enable their clients to buy through BullionVault. Get in touch with your own provider or one of the providers below to take the next step.

• Mattioli Woods
• Hornbuckle
• Barnett Waddingham
• Killik & Co
• James Hay Partnership
• Suffolk Life/Curtis Banks
• Rowanmoor

 

I use BV via James Hay. Seems to work ok but there is a time lag because James Hay handle the transactions. I can't buy and sell directly from BV. The only downside of using James Hay is that I've been forced to use Selftrade (EQi) for stocks. It's quite a poor platform.

[Ash4781b]

A Big Mac meal is £6.50. Blimey.
 

As an aside I had a tea and cooked breakfast (2x eggs, 2x sausage,2x mushroom,tomato and toast) in the local Sainsburys for around the same price. I know Sainsburys are removing and restructuring the cafe offers (some already the pre packed stuff in the coffee chains and airports). They had 4x staff on shift too. 

[M S E Refugee]

I like Rafi's description of Hyperinflation as being Hyper-deflation of the currency versus real things such as Gold.

[Jesus Wept]

Aberdeen PLC trading at a 13 year low of around 190p. (4% jump on Friday). 

Using Recent yield as a guide that would put it at about 6.5% annual yield. 

One to put in the kids ISA alongside their BATs, VOD, HFEL, GSK as long term (20 year +++) dividend yield? Could use the profits / capital from their Enbridge which I cashed in recently or dip into this years annual £9k allowance? (I was hoping to have a little dry tinder - in their accounts) in case the BK materialises. 
 

In terms of asset managers I am also holding MNG - bought last year - which has remained fairly flat but returns a nice 8% dividend.

Here is the ABDN history. 570p high back in June 2015. Looks historically cheap. 

@DurhamBorn

I know you’ve been talking asset managers and insurance recently. Not sure how confident I am that they’ll not be massacred further in a Stockmarket rout / stagflation / recession / depression environment.

Your thoughts as always appreciated - never taken as a buy recommendation - just want to look into your reasoning further .

Need something to go alongside my telecoms. 

Anyway off to garden and beekeep…. cracking morning here in the sunny NE….

 

 

[sancho panza]

India bans wheat exports.what food crisis?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/14/india-bans-wheat-exports-deepen-global-food-crisis/