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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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DurhamBorn
2 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Aberdeen PLC trading at a 13 year low of around 190p. (4% jump on Friday). 

Using Recent yield as a guide that would put it at about 6.5% annual yield. 

One to put in the kids ISA alongside their BATs, VOD, HFEL, GSK as long term (20 year +++) dividend yield? Could use the profits / capital from their Enbridge which I cashed in recently or dip into this years annual £9k allowance? (I was hoping to have a little dry tinder - in their accounts) in case the BK materialises. 
 

In terms of asset managers I am also holding MNG - bought last year - which has remained fairly flat but returns a nice 8% dividend.

Here is the ABDN history. 570p high back in June 2015. Looks historically cheap. 


17373DC7-739C-40E1-A509-201FDED179D6.thumb.jpeg.024ab6c514a903f97c3f9259032ccd00.jpeg

@DurhamBorn

I know you’ve been talking asset managers and insurance recently. Not sure how confident I am that they’ll not be massacred further in a Stockmarket rout / stagflation / recession / depression environment.

Your thoughts as always appreciated - never taken as a buy recommendation - just want to look into your reasoning further .

Need something to go alongside my telecoms. 

Anyway off to garden and beekeep…. cracking morning here in the sunny NE….

 

 

Iv been buying Abrdn and Hargreaves when it went to £8.50 (and £8.16 the other day).I own M+G already.Slightly different reasons on them all,but i suspect a lot of housing wealth will be coming out and going their way.They do have a pull of people drawing down assets though against them.They arent as plain sailing as oil was etc.Wages increases with inflation means higher pension savings as well.Hargreaves also gains from higher rates when they hold client cash.They also have low overheads so inflation doesnt hurt them directly.

I suspect they would get hit more in a BK,but i dont care.I have ladders set below.I dont concern myself worrying too much.Im not scared of being down in short or medium term.I do think Abrdn management need to get the £300 mill buyback going though,pissing around waiting when shares are sub £2 smacks of eye off the ball.

 

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It's always dyor on here K.We all know that.Gets said enough as well.

Must say I always appreciate your insights as you're one of the more informed mining tradesr on hre and I jsut use the titbits I pick up to do my own research and set my trades as I jsut don't have that understanding of the ming sector

Intersting to see things like Abra up 15% at one point today.Alexco got a nice 6% bounce too.

We picked up some more DSV,Abra,NGD,BVN(dog poo sandwich but very cheap dog poo sandwich imho),HOC,SMD today striaght out of the traps,also some Anglogold and kinross calls.Looking to add more Monday I suspectBeena heack of a week for miners all in.

 

Haha, you're right, I guess I'm a bit defensive right now as for all the tough talk about picking undervalued explorers and rinding them to the moon, this recent carnage left my portfolio dead flat compared to 2018 while more diverse portfolios of DB and the like made a killing, so I don't feel like I'm in a position to preach :)

I'm on my way to California* for the weekend so I'll provide a review of my portfolio today or tomorrow.

*the one in Norfolk.

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Chewing Grass

Logged onto Big Mr Pension Co this morning and was greeted by another you are not on target warning, so had a look.

Retirement date was 60-60.5 last year, slipped to 62 in Feb and 64 in April factoring 'a bit of inflation in', as of today its 65.

So two years of Covid and a few months of sword rattling has robbed me (potentially) of 5 years modest retirement.

I wish more people would wake up and realise what these cunts are doing to them.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying Abrdn and Hargreaves when it went to £8.50 (and £8.16 the other day).I own M+G already.Slightly different reasons on them all,but i suspect a lot of housing wealth will be coming out and going their way.They do have a pull of people drawing down assets though against them.They arent as plain sailing as oil was etc.Wages increases with inflation means higher pension savings as well.Hargreaves also gains from higher rates when they hold client cash.They also have low overheads so inflation doesnt hurt them directly.

I suspect they would get hit more in a BK,but i dont care.I have ladders set below.I dont concern myself worrying too much.Im not scared of being down in short or medium term.I do think Abrdn management need to get the £300 mill buyback going though,pissing around waiting when shares are sub £2 smacks of eye off the ball.

 

I bought HL. and ABDN last week but relatively light. I imagined you just copied my sage advice 😆😆 (in the absence of any doubt as sometime occurs in the written word…..that is meant a pure self deprecating humour against my naive novice experience😉

One reason was I remember Warren Buffet explaining how the shares in assets managers and insurers often do better than the funds they manage particularly if you add in dividends. My Aberdeen PEP (ISA) according to their prospectus has doubled in 10 years….but the reality is with a 1.2% fund charge and a 0.35% ISA wrapper fee my return was less than 50% and that included accumulated divis. So since selling the fund last week the fund dropped 5% and the shares I bought have gone up 5%….a bit more dramatic start than I expected but feels like a nice deal and a long term hold. HL. And Abdn added together have become one of my ‘share holdings’ and not really enough to trade if they rise and dip so a nice long term hold to smash my cash.  

I am still on a journey…likely will compromise with my big old expensive with profits type Pru SIPP and move some out temporarily into cash and some into more cost effective and reactive funds ready for any BK. That will mean the Pru funds isn’t ideal but it will only then be about 15% of my assets….so part of the picture. 

And I am greedily setting quite low ladders on some stuff. Emotionally I already own Rio, BAT (or IMB), BP etc…but no rush to buy and a couple of ‘bad market days’ and I will be close.  

The massive difference this thread has made is that if there was a crash I know exactly what I would do….whereas in March 2020 I knew what I should do but didn’t know where to start. In the meantime I am ‘invested’ but playing round the edges and learning as much about the emotional sentiment side as I am about the financial fundamentals.

Thx 👍🏻😉

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Lightscribe
3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

A Big Mac meal is £6.50. Blimey.
 

As an aside I had a tea and cooked breakfast (2x eggs, 2x sausage,2x mushroom,tomato and toast) in the local Sainsburys for around the same price. I know Sainsburys are removing and restructuring the cafe offers (some already the pre packed stuff in the coffee chains and airports). They had 4x staff on shift too. 

076A2F8D-A7B0-426A-A528-42A90E2E2274.thumb.jpeg.3e2f32b0892827d24805a5c46499ef97.jpeg

Grand Big Mac meal is £6.39 or £6.89 with bacon.

Normal Big Mac meal £5.19 which is ridiculous considering you can still get those £1.99 vouchers for one without the drink. Although now these vouchers are franchise specific so I’ve heard that some branches are refusing them.

This is the inflation metric to watch IMO, sounds silly but a packet of pasta from 20p to 40p doesn’t really register on the average bennie radar. Calling in dinner for four from Maccy Ds on Uber eats going up by 50% very definitely does.

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Jesus Wept
32 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

076A2F8D-A7B0-426A-A528-42A90E2E2274.thumb.jpeg.3e2f32b0892827d24805a5c46499ef97.jpeg

Grand Big Mac meal is £6.39 or £6.89 with bacon.

Normal Big Mac meal £5.19 which is ridiculous considering you can still get those £1.99 vouchers for one without the drink. Although now these vouchers are franchise specific so I’ve heard that some branches are refusing them.

This is the inflation metric to watch IMO, sounds silly but a packet of pasta from 20p to 40p doesn’t really register on the average bennie radar. Calling in dinner for four from Maccy Ds on Uber eats going up by 50% very definitely does.

I wouldn’t eat that shit if you paid me £6.89 for every burger I ate. 
 

(I get your point though. The BM index is a good way of checking on strength of currencies abroad as well relative to the pound). 

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M S E Refugee
34 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

076A2F8D-A7B0-426A-A528-42A90E2E2274.thumb.jpeg.3e2f32b0892827d24805a5c46499ef97.jpeg

Grand Big Mac meal is £6.39 or £6.89 with bacon.

Normal Big Mac meal £5.19 which is ridiculous considering you can still get those £1.99 vouchers for one without the drink. Although now these vouchers are franchise specific so I’ve heard that some branches are refusing them.

This is the inflation metric to watch IMO, sounds silly but a packet of pasta from 20p to 40p doesn’t really register on the average bennie radar. Calling in dinner for four from Maccy Ds on Uber eats going up by 50% very definitely does.

This what we are up against, many people in the UK are beyond pathetic.

That’s a myth. Healthy meals are just as cheap as unhealthy ones. The difference is that they take time to make. Poor people are oftentimes too tired or depressed to take the time to make healthy meals.
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Joncrete Cungle
2 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

This what we are up against, many people in the UK are beyond pathetic.

That’s a myth. Healthy meals are just as cheap as unhealthy ones. The difference is that they take time to make. Poor people are oftentimes too tired or depressed to take the time to make healthy meals.

I enjoy pointing out that people who work 0 hours per week or 16 hours per week have a fucking shit ton of time for such things.

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13 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

The projects were called “Nuclear Explosions for the National Economy”!

All together, the Program 7 conducted 115 nuclear explosions. Among them:

39 explosions for the purpose of geological exploration (trying to find new natural gasdeposits by studying seismic waves produced by small nuclear explosions)

25 explosions for intensification of oil and gas debits

22 explosions for creating underground storage for natural gas

5 explosions for extinguishing large natural gas fountains that were burning[3]

4 explosions for creating channels and dams (including the Chagan test in Kazakhstan, and the Taiga test on the potential route of the Pechora–Kama Canal)

2 explosions for crushing ore in open-pit mines

2 explosions for creating underground storage for toxic wastes

1 explosion to facilitate coal mining in an underground mine

19 explosions were performed for research purposes (studying possible migration of the radioactivity from the place of the explosions).

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Explosions_for_the_National_Economy

 

Crazy stuff. 

Yes, all that sounds crazy to us today. Plus I note the US had a similar program called Ploughshare which explored utilising nuclear bombs for doing construction projects, dams, etc - so if that work had gone ahead it would have been above ground and very visible/not secret, I bet that would have involved quiet a PR exercise?!                                                                                                                                                                                Anyway all this does make me fearful that Russia (and it's 'casual nuclear attitude') could actually resort to using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine 'if forced to'. Much comment and rumour of Russia doing this in past week's, which I initially kinda dismissed, however I now think there is a real possibility they might!                               ...and really rams home that we have entered a new geopolitical world - but rather curiously, mainly because of the illuminating discussions on here - I am more scared of the potential secret plans and future intentions, or just plain stupidity, of our own Western governments than I am of Putin?!?

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M S E Refugee

Things are going to be dire this Winter and despite my warnings to my friends I am met with "la la la" fingers in the ears.

lalala.jpg

 

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Somehow this news has passed me by but Bill Gates is seriously involved in research for nuclear fusion.  There was a small article in last week's Mail on Sunday which I can't find but you can have this one instead:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/?sh=61b369e829f3

Apparently there is another outfit also fighting to be first to come up with the goods according to the Mail article and both of the research facilities are in Oxfordshire.  Of course this would solve all our energy problems.

There was also news that Rolls Royce are going ahead with their SMRs and are now hiring staff.

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A step in the right direction perhaps as gvt want to cut 91,000 civil service jobs which should help bring down government spending:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-6143249

Another of my terrible jobs was as the lowest of the low in the civil service (DWP) when they were expanding which they do every so often to reduce the benefits bill.  Some of the "employed" would not have been hired anywhere else,  they were that bad.

It used to be they would hire bright people, now (if it's the same as in the 90s) a lot are just to make the employment figures look better and if you have a degree it's a handicap.

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47 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Things are going to be dire this Winter and despite my warnings to my friends I am met with "la la la" fingers in the ears.

lalala.jpg

 

"La la la" until big enough it becomes a "thing" and then bailed out, usually by HMG, in exchange for something they don't understand.

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DurhamBorn
3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Logged onto Big Mr Pension Co this morning and was greeted by another you are not on target warning, so had a look.

Retirement date was 60-60.5 last year, slipped to 62 in Feb and 64 in April factoring 'a bit of inflation in', as of today its 65.

So two years of Covid and a few months of sword rattling has robbed me (potentially) of 5 years modest retirement.

I wish more people would wake up and realise what these cunts are doing to them.

Its brutal,but i hope they dont wake up,because that would make my job harder.In two years iv added enough for two of my three kids to retire at 50 if they want and im dead,or give them it anyway.Added,not total.Those numbers on pension schemes are a load of rubbish most of the time.Likely you could transfer out and run an income portfolio on around half what they say.Might be worth thinking about.Its a nightmare being tied in employers pensions when still there.I used to launch transfers into my SIPP in the car park when i left an employer even before i went home,but im nuts that way.

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DurhamBorn
2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

076A2F8D-A7B0-426A-A528-42A90E2E2274.thumb.jpeg.3e2f32b0892827d24805a5c46499ef97.jpeg

Grand Big Mac meal is £6.39 or £6.89 with bacon.

Normal Big Mac meal £5.19 which is ridiculous considering you can still get those £1.99 vouchers for one without the drink. Although now these vouchers are franchise specific so I’ve heard that some branches are refusing them.

This is the inflation metric to watch IMO, sounds silly but a packet of pasta from 20p to 40p doesn’t really register on the average bennie radar. Calling in dinner for four from Maccy Ds on Uber eats going up by 50% very definitely does.

Iv just made 12 home made beef burgers roughly quarter pounders for £2.80.I got two packs of 20% mince with 30% off in Lidl last week,2 oxo cubes,2 onions,3 eggs,pepper,pink salt,touch of chilli powder,mixed herbs,half teaspoon of MSG,beautiful.Two bags of frozen chips,breadbuns,feed all the family tonight before Eurovision for around £6.80,8 people.Bennie claim over the road gets massive bags of Mcdonalds delivered regular,must be £30/£40 quids worth,i bet the person paying her bennies is scrimping around.What a country eh.

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DurhamBorn
2 hours ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I enjoy pointing out that people who work 0 hours per week or 16 hours per week have a fucking shit ton of time for such things.

It always amazed me how the ones who didnt work had the scruffy gardens.They just dont plan or think ahead in any way.

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Chewing Grass
2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

This is the inflation metric to watch IMO, sounds silly but a packet of pasta from 20p to 40p doesn’t really register on the average bennie radar. Calling in dinner for four from Maccy Ds on Uber eats going up by 50% very definitely does.

Those are the people who should be rounded up and shot or sent to Ukraine.

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19 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Those are the people who should be rounded up and shot or sent to Ukraine.

Don't need to do anything that drastic. Just stop paying them the equivalent of a decent wage to breed more useless eaters.

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35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just made 12 home made beef burgers roughly quarter pounders for £2.80.I got two packs of 20% mince with 30% off in Lidl last week,2 oxo cubes,2 onions,3 eggs,pepper,pink salt,touch of chilli powder,mixed herbs,half teaspoon of MSG,beautiful.Two bags of frozen chips,breadbuns,feed all the family tonight before Eurovision for around £6.80,8 people.Bennie claim over the road gets massive bags of Mcdonalds delivered regular,must be £30/£40 quids worth,i bet the person paying her bennies is scrimping around.What a country eh.

Love it that you put MSG in it.

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44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its brutal,but i hope they dont wake up,because that would make my job harder.In two years iv added enough for two of my three kids to retire at 50 if they want and im dead,or give them it anyway.Added,not total.Those numbers on pension schemes are a load of rubbish most of the time.Likely you could transfer out and run an income portfolio on around half what they say.Might be worth thinking about.Its a nightmare being tied in employers pensions when still there.I used to launch transfers into my SIPP in the car park when i left an employer even before i went home,but im nuts that way.

I particularly liked being in NEST, recently.

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HousePriceMania
46 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just made 12 home made beef burgers roughly quarter pounders for £2.80.I got two packs of 20% mince with 30% off in Lidl last week,2 oxo cubes,2 onions,3 eggs,pepper,pink salt,touch of chilli powder,mixed herbs,half teaspoon of MSG,beautiful.Two bags of frozen chips,breadbuns,feed all the family tonight before Eurovision for around £6.80,8 people.Bennie claim over the road gets massive bags of Mcdonalds delivered regular,must be £30/£40 quids worth,i bet the person paying her bennies is scrimping around.What a country eh.

Tasty, good day for a bbq.

Today I've erected a mini greenhouse today, got some veg and tomatoes on there. Queue the erection puns 

 

Since we sacked our gardener our garden looks fantastic. Got one of these roller lawn mower, £85 off ebay  so lawn is stripey. Enjoy tinkering with it too. 

Strawberrys look like they're going to be amazing and my raspberries are already flowering. 

Not sure why everyone isn't in their garden growing stuff, it's so easy. 

$_1.jpeg

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Chewing Grass
12 minutes ago, AWW said:

Don't need to do anything that drastic. Just stop paying them the equivalent of a decent wage to breed more useless eaters.

Sorry, my inner authoritarian streak slipped out, seems standard in the West now.

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Bobthebuilder
42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv just made 12 home made beef burgers

I remember visiting a mate in Durham in the early 1990s. His Mum made us dinner before we went out to the pub, beef burger on its own without a bun, baked beans and a whole sliced loaf for us to share.

Being a soft Southerner, it was an eye opener how hard up they were, lovely people mind you.

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Bobthebuilder
4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Not sure why everyone isn't in their garden growing stuff, it's so easy. 

Most of us already are, eh @nirvana ?

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