Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

8 minutes ago, Pinkpanther said:

With all the talk about oil/energy, It made me think about first episode of the second series  of "utopia". The Episode Starts in 1974. (The series is Dark, masterfully twisted with the best of british humour/filmography and sound).

I watched it about 8 years ago and although fiction, the whole series subtly changed my view of the world and politics.

Anyway here is a clip (hopefully set at 8:30), Carvel and Milner sum up the the issue with energy/population in less than a minute.

Edit - I meant to add that we are almost 50 years from when this fictional converstation took place.

I watched that. My favourite bit was the "every torturer has a favourite body part..." (or something like that) scene.

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sits shaking head....
 

 

Heatpump and biomass boiler scheme.

Probably a scheme from ages back that finally started accepting applications.

[Pip321]

16 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sits shaking head....
 

 

Q. How to make a £4K boiler cost £10k…..

A. offer a £6k grant.🥳

[belfastchild]

Just now, Pip321 said:

Q. How to make a £4K boiler cost £10k…..

A. offer a £6k grant.🥳

5 grand off an air source heat pump.
Mine cost 500 quid,  Maybe the 10k ones work in winter.

[HousePriceMania]

1 minute ago, Pip321 said:

Q. How to make a £4K boiler cost £10k…..

A. offer a £6k grant.🥳

Great line, I tweeted that 

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

The system

is aready in place I’ve got to download one myself all the supermarkets take them it’s on an app so it’s modern and sexy .

Looks like TPTB want to ease us into CBDCs by making us stop using even standard debit and credit cards. Let us know if they try and get you onto this @King Penda

 

[Chewing Grass]

If your neighbour gets an air-source heat pump you will end up wanting to kill them.

[ashestoashes]

8 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If your neighbour gets an air-source heat pump you will end up wanting to kill them.

you're not a big fan ?

[King Penda]

24 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Looks like TPTB want to ease us into CBDCs by making us stop using even standard debit and credit cards. Let us know if they try and get you onto this @King Penda

 

If I was in charge any increase in benifits for the cost of living Chrisis would be done via these cards it’s a system tried and tested it’s up and running

[Bricormortis]

6 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

you're not a big fan ?

I think the big fan is the problem.

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I find its best to make a bag of flour at once.Caputo 00 is best,buy a 10 pack,or any Italian 00 if cheaper is wanted.So 1kg flour,20g of fresh yeast,400g here,just cut into 20g bits when it arrives wrap in cling film and freeze,get one out as you need it,iv used after 2 years and fine.20g to 1kg flour.For that i add 650ml tepid water.Yeast in water,stir,leave 15mins,then add 3 teaspoon sugar 1 teaspoon salt,drizzle of olive oil,then add to flour and mix ,dough hook on food processor is great if you have one.Once made into big ball i leave in fridge overnight,slow prove,then use or weigh and roll into 250g balls wrap in clingfilm and freeze.They defrost in 2 hours when you need them and are just as good as fresh,i also sprinkle Natco course semolina over the pizza base and around the edges before cooking,that gets you the dominos taste,mine are better than theirs and work out about £1.20 a pizza all in.I also sometimes use pizza trays inside the over if making a few one after the other,i have 3,just means you can have them ready to go one after the other,i drop off onto stone for last minute,practice and youl be fine in no time,but freezing lots of dough makes a big difference,can use whenever you fancy then,or have some food left you can chuck on top like stripping the leftovers of a chicken etc.

The trays that fit inside are 11 inch i think

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/203762118864?hash=item2f712b30d0:g:CkgAAOSwwDZhwyOE&amdata=enc%3AAQAHAAAA4D8BrdHnmWRSJPZ0mOcEURc7wy9UXqFdz1Afbm2LtFbTYD81wxb3Ab6jlDgoBLR10IKvSMhYIj6jcNKPR4ZuHNOR9wugeuPobIH49pm%2FoCiE4qfZkueN9cs9GnC2Ds4PicTpkoRmrELD8WwTk1RCBeUydKUsSYignA%2BQXu8Vr3LEZfHiCDYrJ3os7AykFQqvTyFpb5nJwwiujIRnAy6a7VoRTD60OYvz9oO%2Bjxha0BGyoNJVIzvjCSMYtFjr8dIQE9Iiuz6ggLIbCisNvF8rCfZV8i8bHmCD9oBR38g2fFwx|tkp%3ABFBMhNuBip5g

 

Reading all that made me think about how Imputed Rent works and wonder if we could do anything with Imputed Labour to increase GDP. I switch the oven on, open the box and throw the pizza in the oven. It doesn't seem right that for your £1.20 a pizza the £30 labour is ignored.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Reading all that made me think about how Imputed Rent works and wonder if we could do anything with Imputed Labour to increase GDP. I switch the oven on, open the box and throw the pizza in the oven. It doesn't seem right that for your £1.20 a pizza the £30 labour is ignored.

I tripled my imputed productivity last week as it happens 

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, King Penda said:

the cost of living Chrisis

Very good, I like that.

[Democorruptcy]

33 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

If your neighbour gets an air-source heat pump you will end up wanting to kill them.

When I lived up in Scotland I viewed a house and asked the owner what the buzzing noise was. He said he had a sewage treatment works in the garden instead of a septic tank and soakaway. It needed electricity.

[One percent]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Sits shaking head....
 

 

It ain’t free. Just that the recipient won’t be paying. The other sap consumers and sap taxpayer will be 

[Bricormortis]

19 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting thought. But do you think he'll garner votes by making people significantly poorer by November 8th? I think you're right that he wants to be seen to do that now, but some time before the election I think taps will open again to jazz up the S&P and make everyone feel hunky dory again. If the Senate won't pass his stimmies, maybe something from the Fed? Maybe the reverse repo money?

I think leaving it to the markets is the right thing to do, but that'd be a first, and the Dems would be wiped out. If only you could see the expiries on Pelosi's calls, that'd tell you for sure.

 

So true that last line and so galling.

Dems are finished come whatever. 

I don't know how things play out. I consider all the possibilities and shake my head and mutter clownworld.

[Axeman123]

I wonder if this is one of the charts DH has been looking at?

 

[Axeman123]

I am not up on the different fed speakers, but this would seem equivalent to loosening compared to what was priced in already. 0.5% rises in June and July, (no meeting August or October) and then pause in September. Meltup fuel perhaps?

 

[invalid]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

My addendum to that would be when watching news clips of people claiming they can't afford to heat their home:                        - if mum is wearing a t-shirt/or children have no socks on, it's a lie.                                                          ...ps a few weeks ago BBC carried a news item of this 'scene' actually happening (talk about being self unaware!)... plus the cherry on the cake was that a local charity worker was present discussing with the single parent how they might help her pay her energy bills!!                                                                                              The 'charity economy' has a lot to answer for imo, encouraging an idleness culture, etc.

 

So heartless, think of the children!

 

 

 

Perhaps a bit chubby, but not fat:

 

Errrr, where's the veg? Frozen broccoli or peas are not expensive!

 

 

Liar, liar, pants on fire.

 

 

Lets play spot the vegetables! As for the fruit, ok, bunch of bananas = lots of fruit.

 

 

 

 

 

I take it all back, some broccoli and mushrooms!

 

 

Am I being harsh? Maybe. It don't doubt that its hard with cra-see (no letter z allowed!) house prices and naff wages with kids to bring up.

I mean between them they are working three jobs, yes, three job across two people with long hours!

"Despite working long hours across three jobs, which include being a care worker, entertainer, valet and full-time student"

Never knew being a full time student was paid work. Any idea how much the pay is?

I wonder what they class as long hours? 3 hours a week? 50?

 

 

 

 

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

We don't have to be. Wartime footing for energy, issue energy bonds (which I'd buy), build out pumped storage and nuclear (with urainium stockpile in advance) to balance big wind and tidal build, with gas to help you across and refine the tech for hydrogen and youre most of the way there. But the polos first need to understand the problem, then level with the country. No more nimbyism, fill up those valleys with water quick smart, there's only sheep there and the walkers can go fishing then too.

You could probably retro fit Hydro to existing large reservoirs, or chain reservoirs. Also to existing weirs and old mill races etc. If the political will was REALLY applied to the issue nationwide.

[invalid]

5 hours ago, janch said:

I've never understood why everything ie benefits and wages always incease by a percentage rather than by a set amount as percentage increases distort payments over time.  This would explain the huge differences between those at the top and bottom.  Even within the benefits system the amount a single man gets on JSA is minimal compared with someone on disability benefits and every year the uprate distorts it further.  This has gone on for years hence the huge disparity.

At a very simple level a 3% increase on £100 is £3 yet on say £500 is £15 so the following year the incease at 3% would be 3% on £103 vs 3% on £515 and every subsequent year the disparity increases further.  I know everyone on here knows this but I wonder about journalists, politicians, people setting wages etc.  Do they ever think about the absolute amounts their increases achieve?

 

Many years ago at work a discussion about crap pay rises in the office.

Nob head manager says he was getting the same as everyone else, from memory it was around 2%.

It was pointed out in front of everyone that 2% of 50k is twice as much as 2% of 25k.

And as you say, its then compounded in the following years.

 

I had a similar discussion many years ago with a senior who claimed todays starting wage was the same as when he joined. But he missed out the compounding in his calcs. We understand the power of compounding, for good or bad, he didn't.

[invalid]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, freezing the tax allowances for 5 years, kinda proves government knew all along that inflation was coming.                                                                                                                                                                               DB please could you break down that £640/week benefit figure? Not disputing it, in fact I'd like to have example figures to hand for when I attempt to tell colleagues that benefit-claimants vs low-wage earners is still a massive problem. Too many think Cameron/Osbourne solved this issue back when they introduced their benefit cap of 23k (was it?).

 

A lot of people don't understand the benefits and in work benefits system.

When you say benefits they think of unemployment benefit.

Child tax credits, working tax credits and universal credit all have the word 'credit' which leads many to think its a tax rebate rather than benefit....

[Animal Spirits]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yikes

 

And importantly, Reuters also quoted Amin stating:

"What happened in Russia-Ukraine masked what would have happened. We were going through an energy crisis because of a lack of investment. And it started to bite following the pandemic"

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/aramco-ceo-warns-of-global-oil-crunch-due-to-lack-of-investment/articleshow/91750801.cms

 

[Chewing Grass]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

2% is about 2m bbl spare. Think I estimated it at 2.5m on here a couple of months ago (when consensus was 7 or 8m, nice to see Aramco in agreement now

There are a few things of great importance here:

- The Saudis are screaming 'danger' again by saying this, rather than reassuring the market. I think they're doing this because they don't want to get blamed for what is a worldwide problem, with no near term solution 

- Saudi itself claims to have 2m on ice, so is he saying the ROW has zero?! Well we know the UAE (the only place who invested through the last 6 years) has spare. So he's actually saying "we, Saudi, don't have the spare capacity we've been telling you". There it is, what I've been banging on about, from the horse's mouth 

- How the world's analysts fail to see this is quite beyond me. The meaning of these comments today, and what led to this. I used no insider knowledge, just public datasets to do my analysis, I don't actually have access to market data in work as it's not my job. Maybe that was a benefit. But just remember that 95% of analysts failed to see this coming, while a randomer with and odd hobby like me saw it 5 years ago. If that's the state of analysis of the oil sector, I think you can read that across all industries. In short, ignore all analysts unless you have the competence to filter the handful actually doing the work.

Which is I suppose what we do here.

Told you all on here years ago that the Saudis had no spare capacity and were lying about their reserves, the map that showed all the Sea Water Pumping Stations was the red light along with the fact they hadn't published real figures for years. It should really be caveated with the Energy and Cost required to Extract which will also come into play with what's left in the North Sea. If the price is high enough for long enough some more can be squeaked out plus some of the reserviors will recover to a certain extent if left alone.

[Joncrete Cungle]

@Cattle Prodpost got the old grey matter ticking. I was sure I read in farming press about farmers trying to diversify into Hydro electrical generation, especially in the uplands.

You won't be shocked to discover the state and officialdom make the process frustrating, drawn out, expensive and the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/business/hydro-scheme-is-good-fit-for-welsh-hill-farm

 

Farming at 1,100ft above sea level in a region where the average annual rainfall is 90in is challenging, but one upland livestock producer is using those natural resources to his advantage.

 

Tegwyn Jones built a 93kW hydroelectric scheme on his Meirionnydd farm 10 years ago, generating 360,000 units annually from an outlay of £90,000.

 

And he has just started producing energy from a second, 100kW plant, which cost £500,000 to establish.

Wind power was not an option because of the close proximity of the farm to the Snowdonia National Park, but hydropower was an obvious choice. Mr Jones’s grandfather, Rowland Evans, was an engineer and had built hydro schemes in the 1930s to power the local village, Dinas Mawddwy. He did this successfully for 30 years until the Merseyside And North Wales Electricity Board established a supply in the village.  

Mr Evans’ schemes proved hydropower could be successful in this area so his grandson decided this diversification could work for him too.   Overcoming hurdles  Mr Jones’ first hurdle to overcome was the planning system and this was no easy feat. The site is in a SSSI and pipes had to be buried in heather moorland. “We had to lift the turf and replace it exactly where it had been, which added to the expense,” Mr Jones said.  

Another planning issue was the need to lay a pipe under a main road. The agency dealing with the highways had initially given its blessing, but at a crucial stage in the planning process it informed Mr Jones that a year’s notice would need to be given to close the road. Welsh historic monuments body, Cadw, had objected to the pipe passing under a listed bridge but it eventually conceded and this is the route that was taken. 

  “It would have been much better if we had been given the opportunity to get all the agencies working together from the outset,” says Mr Jones. “The Environment Agency is the lead agency on hydropower schemes and it talks to the National Park Authority and the Countryside Council for Wales, but the highways body doesn’t get involved until the planning application has actually been submitted.

The whole process was drawn out and it wasted a lot of time.”   He believes the process could be made easier. “I have a passion for generating clean and renewable energy but it is often tempered by the frustrations of working through the logjam of red tape which has greatly hindered our work in developing the hydro schemes.”  

An abstraction licence must also be sought from the Environment Agency and for such schemes to be viable, they need to be close to National Grid cables. Fortunately Mallwyd is served by three-phase electricity, something all schemes over 15kW need. It can cost hundreds of thousands of pounds to upgrade a line if this facility isn’t available. 

Another story on a different farm below

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/local-news/hydro-electric-scheme-boosts-farmers-income-2077099