Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[WICAO]

43 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Good reporting from Sky and some part truths at the end from former BOE Governor Mervyn King that it was a 'mistaken diagnosis' that all central banks made in printing too much in response to the plandemic that has caused this inflation.

I still think the massive money drop was intentional but that's just my opinion.

 

'Mistaken diagnosis', WTF is that... 

[marceau]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

There is no doubt that the WEF are pushing a Chinese communist style future for us all (fascist really) which means CBDCs and social credit scores are next up. Take a look at the WEF's list of graduates (plants / puppets / infiltrators) to how insidious it all is...

 

This is exactly the sort of thing that needs to be done. All of these people should be named and pressured.

More importantly, all of the people who own these people should be named and pressured. At the moment they can just sit on the sidelines and shit all over eveybody without any consequences whatsoever. They need to be called out, dragged into the mud and made to fight.

Until we start squeezing them, nothing will change.

[Plan-b]

5 minutes ago, WICAO said:

'Mistaken diagnosis', WTF is that... 

Its a squirming response for it's not our fault honest....

[WICAO]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

That's really sad to hear.  People do have to take responsibility for their actions or we end up with wide spread fecklessness but at the same time it is really sad that people can't see a way to rebuild their life after a big kick in the nuts like this.

That said, our financial education really is wanting in the UK.  From what I see though in Australia it's just as crap.  Sad.

[DoINeedOne]

12 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

Unfortunately like I mentioned the other week I think this we become a more regular thing ☹️

[WICAO]

3 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Its a squirming response for it's not our fault honest....

In my previous line of work if you made mistakes you got fired.  If you didn't add value you got fired.  If you didn't delver to plan you got fired.  At least you knew where you stood I guess 

I've never heard of a 'mistaken diagnosis' before but that's just me.  These guys are supposed to be the 'best of the best' given their big salaries, pensions and housing allowances.  As a collective they should know history (because while it doesn't repeat it does seem to rhyme), they should be able to model, they should have macro, they should have micro and they should have a pair of balls to do what is right.  If they have those skills I don't see how you can end up with 'mistaken diagnosis'.

[Plan-b]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

There is no doubt that the WEF are pushing a Chinese communist style future for us all (fascist really) which means CBDCs and social credit scores are next up. Take a look at the WEF's list of graduates (plants / puppets / infiltrators) to how insidious it all is...

Some bits from the page the above tweet links to...

"If you decide that you cannot trust them, or that they do not share your interests and values, then it is time to act to prevent them from taking control of all aspects of your life.  Otherwise, the WEF seeks to take away everything you own, and to completely control all aspects of your life.  One of the key predictions of their “Global Future Councils” is that by 2030, you (or your children) will own nothing, and will be happy.  Here is a link to other aspects of their vision of tomorrow.

Whatever your answer, you deserve to know who these people are that wish to control the world, your daily life, what information you can access, what you are allowed to think, and what you are allowed to own.  You deserve to know who they represent, and what are their names.  The purpose of this essay and the accompanying spreadsheet is to provide you with information and transparency about who these people are, where they come from, what their ethics and policy positions are, where they work, what sectors do they work in, and when they were trained to do the bidding of the WEF (there are often close bonds between members of the same class year). 

These people have been trained to believe in and support a globalist form of unelected government, in which international business is at the center of the management and decision-making process.  They have been trained to advance the interests of a global transnational government which represents a public-private partnership in which the business interests of the WEF members take precedence over the constitution of the United States.  The WEF believes that the concept of independent nation states is obsolete and must be replaced with a global government which controls all.  They are fundamentally anti-democratic, and their views are both fundamentally corporatist and globalist, which is another way of saying that they are for totalitarian Fascism – the fusion of the interests of business with the power of the state- on a global scale. These people do not represent the interests of the nation-state in which they reside, work, and may hold political office, but rather their allegiance appears to be to the WEF vision of a dominant world government which has dominion over nations and their constitutions.  In my opinion, in the case of those trainees and WEF members who are in politics, and particularly those who have been used to “penetrate the global cabinets of countries”, these persons should be forced to register as foreign agents within their host countries."

I just want to get me and my family away from these fuckers.

Can we not Group-buy an island FFS 

[afly]

Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

Treasury scheme would come in addition to levies on North Sea oil and gas producers

https://www.ft.com/content/ddbde592-a4e0-465a-9dd2-d6566790403f

---

Struggling to understand the thinking here. Everything we need investment in, they are discouraging investors.

They seem to be mind-bendingly stupid at a time when we desperately need quality leadership

[THEFREEMAN]

Usd is collapsing

[Alifelessbinary]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That's a great find. Would you believe I was scoping out mini hydro about 2 months ago. There is about 70m head on my old man's farm and I worked roughly out that a stream with the flow of a firehose would net you about 25k a year. That is a very nice passive income. There are lots of firehose strength streams in the west of Ireland and they never dry up. I'm trying to figure out "what's the catch" which most likely is planning permission as it says (just please f off you let me build a concrete slatted house with no planning). The point there on three phase electric is a good one. If it's not available, it should be made available. Thanks, JC

While planning would be difficult you need to try and think of ways to appease the green lobby. While the turbine house might at its core be a ‘concrete slatted house’ there’s no reason why it can’t have a sedum roof and green walls to help it disguise into its environment. With the right planting you could also create net biodiversity gain, while also increasing green energy supplies and a sustainable rural income stream for the local community (maintenance etc…).

The planning process drives me insane. If you think about your favourite place most of these would’ve been built with little to no planning. The fact that councils use design consultants that have no architectural background explains why most new builds look so awful. There a few few developers who still care about the long term attractiveness of their buildings, but these tend to be small family run firms. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, afly said:

Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

Treasury scheme would come in addition to levies on North Sea oil and gas producers

https://www.ft.com/content/ddbde592-a4e0-465a-9dd2-d6566790403f

---

Struggling to understand the thinking here. Everything we need investment in, they are discouraging investors.

They seem to be mind-bendingly stupid at a time when we desperately need quality leadership

I have a small stockpile of tin foil. It isn't intended for hat making but conspiracy is the alternative to massive incompetence.

[Democorruptcy]

6 minutes ago, afly said:

Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

Treasury scheme would come in addition to levies on North Sea oil and gas producers

https://www.ft.com/content/ddbde592-a4e0-465a-9dd2-d6566790403f

---

Struggling to understand the thinking here. Everything we need investment in, they are discouraging investors.

They seem to be mind-bendingly stupid at a time when we desperately need quality leadership

Makes you wonder who they target next. Any firm that's doing well is a target. They are sinking in quicksand and pulling others down into it.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

They are sinking in quicksand and pulling others down into it.

It's called equality and it is beautiful. stunning, and brave 

[feed]

The state moves slowly.  Particularly a populist one. 

We’ve had 40 years of disinflation, where at least recently the policy has been to take money from those who don’t spent it and give it to those that will.   We’ve only had 9 months or so of RPI above 5%.  They don’t get it, yet.  

 

Whilst we can see 6~8 years of high inflation and the change in the cycle.  They don’t.  To do so, they would need to recognise that they’re wrong.  And they can blame Covid or Putin or China.   

And I’m not sure an energy windfall tax now would be long term bad.  The fallout from doing it once, could be so significant it may move them along; we’re living in an inflationary cycle now understanding much quicker. 
And if they don’t do it, it will always be something they should have done to fix the problem.

Transitioning from a 40 year fight against deflation to one against inflation, will take the state years to accept. 
 

[geordie_lurch]

Anyone any ideas why SSE is down 10% this morning? I can't see anything online to explain such a large move

EDIT - Best explanation I can find is it's a wider move thanks to Dishy Rishy

The biggest downward moves came in the energy sector as speculation turned to the possibility of a much broader windfall tax covering more than just the oil industry. Renewables firm SSE slid 7% in the FTSE 100 index, while North Yorkshire-based Drax and British Gas owner Centrica fell 13% and 7% respectively in the FTSE 250 index.

[M S E Refugee]

EU explains absence of Russian oil embargo https://www.rt.com/news/555989-eu-russia-embargo-explained/

[HousePriceMania]

42 minutes ago, THEFREEMAN said:

Usd is collapsing

Needs some interest rate rises 

[HousePriceMania]

Just paid my annual travel insurance, down 30%.

Where is all this inflation ?

 

8 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

What's to stop anyone on benefits moving to London and getting their landlord 2100 for rent rather than 600 in Stoke?

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

16 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Anyone any ideas why SSE is down 10% this morning? I can't see anything online to explain such a large move

Gov looking into taxing electricity producers as well as oil and gas.

See afly's post at the top of this page.

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Trial balloon for systemic collapse, @DurhamBorn. Seems like elements of the govt just want to watch it burn.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/23/windfall-tax-could-help-pay-poorest-five-million-get-increase/

I've just checked a couple of companies -- BP and Centrica -- and neither have recovered to their pre-pandemic share prices.

Given that the share price encapsulates the expected flow of dividends, where's the windfall?

windfall (noun): an amount of money that you win or receive from someone unexpectedly:

If you held these companies in 2019 you're not even back to where you started.

If you bought the dip then you did so knowingly (and with risk) and any profit can't be said to be "unexpected".

"Expedient tax" would be a better name.

[Noallegiance]

56 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

I just want to get me and my family away from these fuckers.

Can we not Group-buy an island FFS 

Sure.

Just gotta find a planet.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Trial balloon for systemic collapse, @DurhamBorn. Seems like elements of the govt just want to watch it burn.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/05/23/windfall-tax-could-help-pay-poorest-five-million-get-increase/

Insane,but they have no macro advice,just economists who will be telling them bennie increases go direct into the economy and will help.They simply have no understanding of distribution cycles.Sunak gets it i think so id expect one off payments.Amazing to think my divi will be stolen to hand to the woman over the road and her brand new BMW.

I didnt see a risk of systemic collapse,but the actions of the government are now seeing it become a maybe,im seeing signs.Whats also telling is with the BOE cut off from monetising debt as it is,the government can only give more away by taxing wealth more and more.I know lots think its deliberate new world order stuff,but i dont.I think they just really are useless and have no macro advisors.

So far im keeping my family well ahead,so im doubling down on giving the kids more for their SIPPs,im going to try to remove my whole family from tax,iv removed my partner now shes 100% into her SIPP above tax allowance.

The macro position is that to increase anything they need to tax more,monetising debt has ended.Thats the message here,aand everyone will be shouting for more and more.

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Insane,but they have no macro advice,just economists who will be telling them bennie increases go direct into the economy and will help.They simply have no understanding of distribution cycles.Sunak gets it i think so id expect one off payments.Amazing to think my divi will be stolen to hand to the woman over the road and her brand new BMW.

I didnt see a risk of systemic collapse,but the actions of the government are now seeing it become a maybe,im seeing signs.Whats also telling is with the BOE cut off from monetising debt as it is,the government can only give more away by taxing wealth more and more.I know lots think its deliberate new world order stuff,but i dont.I think they just really are useless and have no macro advisors.

So far im keeping my family well ahead,so im doubling down on giving the kids more for their SIPPs,im going to try to remove my whole family from tax,iv removed my partner now shes 100% into her SIPP above tax allowance.

The macro position is that to increase anything they need to tax more,monetising debt has ended.Thats the message here,aand everyone will be shouting for more and more.

Can't you use your contacts, put together a paper and send it someone in Whitehall who has a brain?

[DurhamBorn]

44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Makes you wonder who they target next. Any firm that's doing well is a target. They are sinking in quicksand and pulling others down into it.

That is the best quote iv read since i started this thread,sums up where we are in the cycle, DISTRIBUTION.

[BadAlchemy]

 

RRP hits $2 trillion. There is barely any movement on the corresponding Repo chart to account for this so, to me, it seems liquidity is moving from banks back to the Fed rather than out into the economy. Easy, risk free yield preferred - I dont blame them.