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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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M S E Refugee
3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Insane,but they have no macro advice,just economists who will be telling them bennie increases go direct into the economy and will help.They simply have no understanding of distribution cycles.Sunak gets it i think so id expect one off payments.Amazing to think my divi will be stolen to hand to the woman over the road and her brand new BMW.

I didnt see a risk of systemic collapse,but the actions of the government are now seeing it become a maybe,im seeing signs.Whats also telling is with the BOE cut off from monetising debt as it is,the government can only give more away by taxing wealth more and more.I know lots think its deliberate new world order stuff,but i dont.I think they just really are useless and have no macro advisors.

So far im keeping my family well ahead,so im doubling down on giving the kids more for their SIPPs,im going to try to remove my whole family from tax,iv removed my partner now shes 100% into her SIPP above tax allowance.

The macro position is that to increase anything they need to tax more,monetising debt has ended.Thats the message here,aand everyone will be shouting for more and more.

Won't they just steal from your Pension eventually?

Would it not be better just to buy Gold?

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HousePriceMania

I went to sleep, woke up and all the posters on here are now wearing tin foil hats.

 

Have they spiked the water sources round the country ?

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Chewing Grass
4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Won't they just steal from your Pension eventually?

Would it not be better just to buy Gold?

They will steal everything eventually, Klaus says so.

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M S E Refugee
2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I went to sleep, woke up and all the posters on here are now wearing tin foil hats.

 

Have they spiked the water sources round the country ?

I think if you don't believe in Conspiracy theories then you have to believe that the Davos set are working in our best interests and are not conspiring against us.

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DurhamBorn
29 minutes ago, feed said:

The state moves slowly.  Particularly a populist one. 

We’ve had 40 years of disinflation, where at least recently the policy has been to take money from those who don’t spent it and give it to those that will.   We’ve only had 9 months or so of RPI above 5%.  They don’t get it, yet.  

image.thumb.png.b9935baec4971d8a0c603a7cdd3f5f56.png

 

Whilst we can see 6~8 years of high inflation and the change in the cycle.  They don’t.  To do so, they would need to recognise that they’re wrong.  And they can blame Covid or Putin or China.   

And I’m not sure an energy windfall tax now would be long term bad.  The fallout from doing it once, could be so significant it may move them along; we’re living in an inflationary cycle now understanding much quicker. 
And if they don’t do it, it will always be something they should have done to fix the problem.

Transitioning from a 40 year fight against deflation to one against inflation, will take the state years to accept. 
 

Maybe a near collapse in the state,they have no idea this cycle is just starting,not ending.Its a huge shock to them that the BOE cant monetise anymore.So they now go after capital and wealth.Of course this is the point investment then slows or stops.Tax is one thing,but they are moving to outright theft.

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M S E Refugee
2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

They will steal everything eventually, Klaus says so.

I think Gold will be the last thing they will take but that's only if they are successful.

The more the WEF speak the more difficult it is for them to discredit the conspiracy theorists.

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I'm now seriously thinking of selling BP and Shell and increasing my holdings in Chevron / Occidental instead. Hopefully the Americans will be less likely to do this kind of nonsense. Long term holdings for me so don't want the Government stealing my dividends whenever they need more money to give to the benny crew.

Noticed Drax down 18%, seems a little overdone to me so taken a position to hopefully capture a cheeky little bounce.

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HousePriceMania
2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Good reporting from Sky and some part truths at the end from former BOE Governor Mervyn King that it was a 'mistaken diagnosis' that all central banks made in printing too much in response to the plandemic that has caused this inflation.

I still think the massive money drop was intentional but that's just my opinion.

 

100% intentional IMHO

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Meanwhile, nice fat ABRDN divi landed today.

Hopefully the sector stays down for a while and more ladders can be bought... 

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16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

That is the best quote iv read since i started this thread,sums up where we are in the cycle, DISTRIBUTION.

Sounds more like redistribution to me :ph34r:;)

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4 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

100% intentional IMHO

Of course it is, if it was all down to incompetence occasionally 'we' would win

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1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

I am sorry for your loss.

I am conflicted about feeling vindicated that the latest round of Bitcoin mania has yet again collapsed, and yet also feeling great sympathy for the individuals harmed by it all. Leveraging to buy magic beans was always going to end badly of course.(Crypto may have genuine uses, but speculation is just speculation)

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HousePriceMania
2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Of course it is, if it was all down to incompetence occasionally 'we' would win

It was all too coincidental, was it the repo rate shooting up Dec 2019....2 months later they've pledge $10Tn and everyone is happy again.

it's an outright act of theft and the sheeple were conned in 2008 when the wheeled out QE...it was just another name for money printing theft.

We are fucked, totally fucked and there is nothing that'll stop it now IMHO.

The other half of my gold order arrives today, I might do a Papillon so they dont find it when they come searching.

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HousePriceMania
35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Gov looking into taxing electricity producers as well as oil and gas.

See afly's post at the top of this page.

Where do they get their money from ?

They are looking at taxing us !!!!

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DurhamBorn

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

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HousePriceMania
1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I just found out that a guy I used to go to School with committed suicide after getting himself into debt buying Bitcoin.

Fecken hell, that's terrible.  If it goes to 0 there will be a lot more of this sadly.

 

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1 hour ago, THEFREEMAN said:

Usd is collapsing

DXY dipping below 102 now, down from ~105. Shortly after the media were all aboard the "dollar to infinty" train. US 10yr now just above 2.8%, again just after the media were calling for it to go ever higher. There is definitely something to contrarianism.

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HousePriceMania
2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

I said during the CV19 handouts Sunak was the greatest labour chancellor in history.

he went full communist in the end

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geordie_lurch
31 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Take a look at Sterling today,markets showing the government just what happens when they start to launch direct theft.Capital goes somewhere else.This government won a landslide because the people wanted right wing policy,they got the most left wing in our countries history.Incredible stuff.

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out shortly and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt taking us full WEF then be forced to choose between them and Keir fucking Starmer at the next elections :CryBaby:

Our only real hope is if the sheeple reject all this and we get something genuinely different but populist leaders always tend to be wrong uns in the end too :S

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19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Maybe a near collapse in the state,they have no idea this cycle is just starting,not ending.Its a huge shock to them that the BOE cant monetise anymore.So they now go after capital and wealth.Of course this is the point investment then slows or stops.Tax is one thing,but they are moving to outright theft.

It’s certainly possible. But printing bad, is trickling out.  

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/mervyn-king-needless-money-printing-fuelled-inflation

One of the major problems, Lord King said, was that the Bank went too hard and too fast with its money printing. ‘Governments stepped in and put in a lot of money for furlough schemes or raising unemployment benefits. That was very sensible,’ he said. ‘The problem was that central banks also printed a great deal of money and that wasn't needed… it put a lot of money into the system.

We know the state has the ability to move most of the country in any direction it wants, when it wants. 

It’s going to become a race between policy change, led by those that do understand and those that don’t or have an interest in the current system.  Once it’s policy that increasing velocity is the last they should do, it stops.    

I don’t know who wins or if they move quickly enough.

But I’m fairly optimistic.   I think Putin has given them something else to worry about and they’re fundamentally weak people..  They’ll blink, if there is enough resistance to proposed tax thefts.  
 

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Virgil Caine
1 hour ago, afly said:

Sunak orders plan for windfall tax on electricity generators

Treasury scheme would come in addition to levies on North Sea oil and gas producers

https://www.ft.com/content/ddbde592-a4e0-465a-9dd2-d6566790403f

---

Struggling to understand the thinking here. Everything we need investment in, they are discouraging investors.

They seem to be mind-bendingly stupid at a time when we desperately need quality leadership

There is absolutely no coherent tax policy at all in the U.K. so you end up with nonsense like the Chancellor freezing personal allowances, raising NIC and then talking about cutting Basic Rate Tax by a 1p. They need to make much more significant changes to tax and benefits than this sort of tinkering. At the very least benefit rises should be set at the middle of some basic range that can never increase by a greater percentage  than average wages.

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HousePriceMania

I love a bit of gold in the morning

image.png.923accc41a0f4bb2eb18cf614e4c816f.png

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt then have to choose between them and Kier fucking Starmer :CryBaby:

It's like it's rigged.

I dont Sunak would become king, unless the bankers really are deciding who is PM

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14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

My only worry is that with the new Boris pics today he will be out shortly and we will get someone even worse such as Rishi or Jeremy Cunt taking us full WEF then be forced to choose between them and Keir fucking Starmer at the next elections :CryBaby:

Our only real hope is if the sheeple reject all this and we get something genuinely different but populist leaders always tend to be wring uns in the end too :S

We need wrong 'uns at this point. No other type will have the guts to do what needs to be done.

The future is shakedowns. We need to be the ones doing the shaking. 

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