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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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18 minutes ago, janch said:

Those vox pops are always the same.  Anyone with savings will be glad of an interest rate rise which includes all those who are saving for a house.  I would also applaud if someone pointed out that instead of fat-cats getting rich on share options blah, blah,blah......someone could mention stock markets also contain shares which pay into peoples' pension pots so the workers also gain.

Let's not fuck about, this is the TUC, how many of their members aren't on inflation linked pension anyway? How many of them have to pay rent? How many of them aren't doing their bit for the poor and destitute by landlording them a slum for whatever the taxpayer will compensate?

Fuck unions. Scum. I realised long ago that I wasn't cut out to be a criminal, not because of any moral compass, but purely because I hate the Labour Party more than I hate the police. 

Raise interest rates to 10% where they should be and let these fuckers go protest outside one of Tony's mansions. 

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HousePriceMania

Every time I look its gone down another 1%

 

Bitcoin
14,448.33GBP

−2,275.41 (13.61%)today

 

 

Can't see how it won't go to pennies now 

Bitcoin margin calls incoming 

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9 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Anyone want to put a number on theur first bitcoin ladder, I'm in at 0

$2000

When it hits that I'll buy one. 

Was 2k when I first found out about them, have felt like a right mug ever since because I didn't pull the trigger. So i shall buy that 2k, get someone to buy some vallies with it, then sell them for a little profit.

Now Paul Leroux is incarcerated and everyone knows he is, there's nothing left for bitcoin really. It's over. 

Currency is backed up by men with guns. No violence, no value. 

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belfastchild
22 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

25p per share with a max charge of £50, so it's £50 if I use them. They are fishing for the people who were 'gifted' shares when they floated.

I get the same letters about some BT shares I got when I worked for them. Isnt worth my while selling through them.

And heres one of my life long lessons. I had those shares and thought I would sell them when they hit 890 quid. It looked like it was going to time when I came off my initial fixed rate mortgage deal so would go straight off the mortgage.
I was working overseas that week and came home to find them at 920. Did I sell? No, I got greedy and said I would sell when they hit 990 quid.
The never did, then or since.

Here endeth the lesson.

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

I get the same letters about some BT shares I got when I worked for them. Isnt worth my while selling through them.

And heres one of my life long lessons. I had those shares and thought I would sell them when they hit 890 quid. It looked like it was going to time when I came off my initial fixed rate mortgage deal so would go straight off the mortgage.
I was working overseas that week and came home to find them at 920. Did I sell? No, I got greedy and said I would sell when they hit 990 quid.
The never did, then or since.

Here endeth the lesson.

Aberdeen (Standard Life) shares were 3 quid last August, they are now 1.6.

That is the trouble with holding shares, you have to keep your eye on the ball or have an automated plan.

I haven't got the time or inclination as too much everyday stuff gets in the way.

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9 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I knew at 18 that school and work was a trap…

I grew up in a poor area of England but crucially not only that but I was even poorer than the poor. I have told this story before and got replied to with the 4 Yorkshiremen story, don't do that again this time or I will invade your country.

Dreadful and crushing at the time, although there were highlights, but amazing for the rest of my life. Just growing up and having a job didn't feel like I had been 0wned by The Man it felt like I had arrived in the good life. Any time I got ordinary stuff like being paid at end of month or -gasp- a bonus it felt like I was international pony coast to coast playboy etc.  There's a lot to be said for having low expectations normal life makes you happy every day.

After February 2022 there was a crash in the price of Polymetal. I wasn't and am still not sure of its business model but I had previously heard in this thread for years how sound it was so bought a small amount. I am still well up. Think lucky, feel lucky:D

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HousePriceMania
28 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I grew up in a poor area of England but crucially not only that but I was even poorer than the poor. I have told this story before and got replied to with the 4 Yorkshiremen story, don't do that again this time or I will invade your country.

Dreadful and crushing at the time, although there were highlights, but amazing for the rest of my life. Just growing up and having a job didn't feel like I had been 0wned by The Man it felt like I had arrived in the good life. Any time I got ordinary stuff like being paid at end of month or -gasp- a bonus it felt like I was international pony coast to coast playboy etc.  There's a lot to be said for having low expectations normal life makes you happy every day.

After February 2022 there was a crash in the price of Polymetal. I wasn't and am still not sure of its business model but I had previously heard in this thread for years how sound it was so bought a small amount. I am still well up. Think lucky, feel lucky:D

When I grew up I had no idea on how rich or poor we were, it's just life and what you're used to. 

It wasn't till I was older that I realised the poor people flew our private jet for us 😉

My view now is that we're all slaves now, nothing changes till everyone realises, the keep us stupid so we don't and now they're importing ready made Muslim slaves in their oppressive burkas and oppressive teachings 

 

We really are fucked up as a race, nation, species 

 

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HousePriceMania
43 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Aberdeen (Standard Life) shares were 3 quid last August, they are now 1.6.

That is the trouble with holding shares, you have to keep your eye on the ball or have an automated plan.

I haven't got the time or inclination as too much everyday stuff gets in the way.

Buy a house or bitcoin, can't lose on those 

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 https://archive.ph/NZaTL

Headline "Bank of England and Sunak Set to Step Up Fight Against Inflation"

"Britain’s policy makers are hardening their attitude toward inflation, preparing to deliver a tough dose of medicine at a time when a cost-of-living crisis is weighing down growth and consumers.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government along with the Bank of England this week signaled a readiness to raise interest rates at an unprecedented pace to rein in prices, which are on track to leap more than 11% this year. 

Remarks from the Treasury and central bank indicate a switch of policy emphasis from supporting growth to preventing inflation seeping into wages and triggering a 1970s-style price spiral..."

Seems the 0.25% rise wasn't enough. Emergency rise to follow?

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M S E Refugee
17 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

When I grew up I had no idea on how rich or poor we were, it's just life and what you're used to. 

It wasn't till I was older that I realised the poor people flew our private jet for us 😉

My view now is that we're all slaves now, nothing changes till everyone realises, the keep us stupid so we don't and now they're importing ready made Muslim slaves in their oppressive burkas and oppressive teachings 

 

We really are fucked up as a race, nation, species 

 

Man rejected from blood drive over pregnancy question https://www.rt.com/news/557414-scottish-man-pregnant-nhs-blood/

Totally Fucked up!

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Chewing Grass
3 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Buy a house or bitcoin, can't lose on those 

I'm going to buy old shit off ebay to bypass the WEF and Sunak.

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8 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

 https://archive.ph/NZaTL

Headline "Bank of England and Sunak Set to Step Up Fight Against Inflation"

"Britain’s policy makers are hardening their attitude toward inflation, preparing to deliver a tough dose of medicine at a time when a cost-of-living crisis is weighing down growth and consumers.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government along with the Bank of England this week signaled a readiness to raise interest rates at an unprecedented pace to rein in prices, which are on track to leap more than 11% this year. 

Remarks from the Treasury and central bank indicate a switch of policy emphasis from supporting growth to preventing inflation seeping into wages and triggering a 1970s-style price spiral..."

Seems the 0.25% rise wasn't enough. Emergency rise to follow?

The BOE on Thursday raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point to 1.25%, the highest since 2009, and suggested it may step up the pace of tightening at its next meeting in August. 

image.png.182d85c62e7589aca137a0027fde3afd.png
The BOE on Thursday raised its benchmark lending rate a quarter point to 1.25%, the pointlessly minimum feeble pathetic useless attempt it could get away with, and suggested it may step up the pace of tightening sometime in the far unicorn future hahahahahaha. 

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Noallegiance
3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Crypto-Bull Greg Mannarino sold out of his Crypto yesterday.

I wonder if the money exiting Crypto will go into Gold and Silver.

That's a 180 for him.

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5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

 https://archive.ph/NZaTL

Headline "Bank of England and Sunak Set to Step Up Fight Against Inflation"

"Britain’s policy makers are hardening their attitude toward inflation, preparing to deliver a tough dose of medicine at a time when a cost-of-living crisis is weighing down growth and consumers.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government along with the Bank of England this week signaled a readiness to raise interest rates at an unprecedented pace to rein in prices, which are on track to leap more than 11% this year. 

Remarks from the Treasury and central bank indicate a switch of policy emphasis from supporting growth to preventing inflation seeping into wages and triggering a 1970s-style price spiral..."

Seems the 0.25% rise wasn't enough. Emergency rise to follow?

More talk.  Wake me up when they actually do something.

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10 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

 https://archive.ph/NZaTL

Headline "Bank of England and Sunak Set to Step Up Fight Against Inflation"

"Britain’s policy makers are hardening their attitude toward inflation, preparing to deliver a tough dose of medicine at a time when a cost-of-living crisis is weighing down growth and consumers.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government along with the Bank of England this week signaled a readiness to raise interest rates at an unprecedented pace to rein in prices, which are on track to leap more than 11% this year. 

Remarks from the Treasury and central bank indicate a switch of policy emphasis from supporting growth to preventing inflation seeping into wages and triggering a 1970s-style price spiral..."

Seems the 0.25% rise wasn't enough. Emergency rise to follow?

Sounds more like policy to target wages, not sure much BoE can do about that, but as I've said before, these £1000 one off payments are the bribe to accept low pay rises. Pretty sure this has been discussed at policy level with big employers.

Meanwhile unproductive people getting bonus and big increases.

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Lightscribe
4 hours ago, WICAO said:

More talk.  Wake me up when they actually do something.

Exactly. Is anyone noticing a pattern of ‘tough’ talk and doing the opposite?

Windfall taxes, inflationary benefit increases etc?

Rwanda flights costing millions with 7 onboard - oh no they’ve been grounded at the last minute. Pesky ECHR

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/17/priti-patel-scandalous-grounding-rwanda-flight-shows-time-quit/

Tag all the asylum seekers - oh no we were scuppered by them removing the tags and then we couldn’t find them (Ok I may have preempted that one) 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-refugees-patel-electronic-tag-b2104061.html?amp

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Democorruptcy
11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Nobody knows when things will turn.I did wait for a crash,most of what i bought was down 50% to 80% before first ladder,some fell so fast i got lucky in that i missed a ladder and got two at a lower price.I knew Mosaic would run hard once the printing hit,but i didnt know if it would bottom at $12,$10,$6 etc.Trying to work out bottoms is useless and the reason why most lose investing or give up,they spend most of their time being scared of being down,they want the profits but are scared of the losing,their energy is used on fear instead of hard work trying to work out likely sectors to do well etc.This thread even gets full of fear on any falls when its what you want.

Anyone who used ladders and bought the sectors and shares on here will be up by big amounts.Anyone in the Vanguard 60/40 will be up 2%pa after costs,im up 48%pa in the same timescale and i positioned into more conservative stocks rather than ones with more multi bag potential.

Iv yet to see any better way for serious investors to invest than to use ladders and use their time for things they can actually gain from.Im buying the wealth managers now.I think the sector will deliver over time,but i have no idea when it will bottom,and i dont care ,though i tend to regret when things turn too quickly and you end up with small holdings.

The work helps you miss a lot of the falls and the ladders help you then position with emotion removed.

I was just trying to squeeze out every possible penny of profit. Though to be fair, you can already hardly move at your house with all those tins of Asda corned beef, so where would you put any more?

Anyway on to other matters... there's an interesting article about private equity, how they sucker in pension fund managers etc with free booze etc, that poses an important question about the future! Some snippets:

Quote

 

The enormous flood of deals struck at high valuations during the boom of the past two years are at risk of turning into what at least four senior dealmakers privately referred to as a “bad vintage” — the private equity industry’s wine-driven euphemism of choice, which means pension funds and other investors would make less money than they hoped when they committed cash to buyout groups’ funds.

Private equity struck deals worth more than $800bn last year, an estimate from Preqin shows. Those that paid high multiples for fast-growing companies in that period “are going to wake up with a terrible hangover,” said Gabriel Caillaux, co-president of growth investor General Atlantic.

....

“For those that have liquidity and [can support the companies they own], this will present more opportunity than risk,” he said.

Others also made positive noises, perhaps not least because the conference is largely an opportunity to raise money from the pension funds and other investors who are given free passes for a conference that costs private equity executives more than £4,000 to attend.

Dealmakers and private equity investors were torn about how long a looming downturn could last. In private meetings at the InterContinental hotel, the industry’s senior figures predicted everything from an 18-month “blip” to a difficult decade.

 

Those were about financial stuff but this bit poses the BIG question:

Quote

Private equity executives attending the conference were treated to an intimate Duran Duran concert in a former malt factory, followed by a DJ set from Mark Ronson, with free drinks flowing.

On the same evening, the investment bank Evercore hosted an Ibiza-themed dinner and cocktails evening at Soho House with a “summer white” dress code and a performance from Groove Armada.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F24e4a1d2-ee85-40b9-9a11-7538e9d71b56

 

Which pop performers will you arranging for the Durham Summit and what's the dress code? We definitely don't want Duran Duran.

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11 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Aberdeen (Standard Life) shares were 3 quid last August, they are now 1.6.

That is the trouble with holding shares, you have to keep your eye on the ball or have an automated plan.

I haven't got the time or inclination as too much everyday stuff gets in the way.

I think even without any thoughts to the cycle etc an ordinary person can build a very nice portfolio by buying sectors that are really out of favour over time .Over the last ten years Anglo American has been £3,BAT £24,BT 97p ,Insurers 50% below where they are now.At the moment the wealth managers are out of favour,in a year or two it will be someone else.Youl always catch one that keeps going south,but with divis to re-invest over the long term anyone can build a nice second income even without worrying too much.

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M S E Refugee
24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think even without any thoughts to the cycle etc an ordinary person can build a very nice portfolio by buying sectors that are really out of favour over time .Over the last ten years Anglo American has been £3,BAT £24,BT 97p ,Insurers 50% below where they are now.At the moment the wealth managers are out of favour,in a year or two it will be someone else.Youl always catch one that keeps going south,but with divis to re-invest over the long term anyone can build a nice second income even without worrying too much.

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251950/ishares-stoxx-europe-600-insurance-ucits-etf-de-fund

Is this ETF any good for a little bit of exposure to the insurers?

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

I was just trying to squeeze out every possible penny of profit. Though to be fair, you can already hardly move at your house with all those tins of Asda corned beef, so where would you put any more?

Anyway on to other matters... there's an interesting article about private equity, how they sucker in pension fund managers etc with free booze etc, that poses an important question about the future! Some snippets:

Those were about financial stuff but this bit poses the BIG question:

Which pop performers will you arranging for the Durham Summit and what's the dress code? We definitely don't want Duran Duran.

Dress code is anything better than a rag ,so we look better than 99% of them.Being frugal we will have to do our own entertainment,so il bang out a tune in The Fighting Cocks.

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ThoughtCriminal

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

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34 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Yes,but i wouldnt buy it due to being Europe weighted,i prefer the wealth managers because BTL is dead and massive amounts are headed their way over the next 15 years with that and probates.Far outstripping asset value falls.L+G and M+G for instance might end up huge landlords.Market is looking the wrong way on them as usual,worried about short term drops in AUM due to falls and inflation,but missing the massive movement of capital thats about to hit.I repeat BTL is finished for leveraged or small one or two house people.Takes time,but the direction is crystal clear.

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4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

Houses will come down,but the young will of lost all their savings so cant take advantage.Wonder how many grannies left their grandkids £30k in their wills only for  them to lose it all in crypto.Its been an incredible scam though,maybe the biggest illusion since the tulip craze,but even worse.Some will of made life changing amounts and walked away of course,your just seeing the bag holders now.

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Joncrete Cungle
1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Just found out a friend put 50k into crypto at the top, it's now less than 10k 

 

He's 56 and not got a pot to piss in now.

 

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

 

Wonder how many more there are out there.

If you look on social media, must be hundreds of thousands of people worldwide in the same boat. Plenty have bet their house etc on crypto.

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