Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[ashestoashes]

7 hours ago, Calcutta said:

EVs will work out too expensive for any normal people to own, so everyone will be stuck with renting them, using ubers or riding a bike. 

That's the plan I reckon. 

Government investing in trams and trains would be useful, thus they'll probably fuck it up. Any train/tram that needs to be fully stopped before you get on or off and where you can't open the windows is going to end up an expensive piss bucket and you'd be better off walking. 

an electric bike, scooter or trike would meet a lot of people's needs

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, BWW said:

I understood there was a lot us use of coins for drug purchases. Is that true and are there any stats?

Exactly....those inside that business have no trouble laundering FIAT, but its a convenient statement by those who want to 'demonize' Bitcoins in the 'eyes' of the general public.

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, BWW said:

I haven't got my head round top slicing.

Example: GLEN. bought jul-aug 20. cost ca 20k. sold half feb-apr-jun 22 proceeds 30k. Divis paid maybe 3-5k. So ignoring the divis, that share has paid me 10k for buying at the right time and I now hold shares valued at 35k which I paid nowt for [is one way of looking at it]. The price is now 10% off their top.

Why wouldn't I want to own more of something that was so great?

OTOH if I think they're going down soon, why would I not sell the rest. OK, there's no risk of a 'loss' on this overall but in a portfolio it needs to cover other likely losses that at some point will become forced [one or two of POLY EVR CINE HOC etc] to make the whole portfolio look OK.

Top slicing feels a bit like fence sitting.

Is there a stock that you think has a good chance of being up x% in the next few years? How likely do you think Glencore will be up the same x% over the same time period? If less likely, top slice and put it into that other stock.

[Red Debt Redemption]

11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thing is, I know quite a few people with crypto, some were heavily into it years ago before most had heard of it.

 

Not a single one of them has sold anything. It's all "HODL!!!" as they thought it was going to 100k, then it would be a million etc. 

 

It makes me wonder, how many people ever actually sold crypto? I bet it's fewer than we might think.

 

Over here  helped build up my DB portfolio over the years. There is a small amount left that'll go to zero or do something or not. It was places like this that kept me grounded even with stick about stocks not returning the same mad gainzzzzz.

Know lots that haven't. Some to the tune of hundreds of thousands gone. 

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Some to the tune of hundreds of thousands gone. 

Gains or capital?

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, BWW said:

I haven't got my head round top slicing.

Example: GLEN. bought jul-aug 20. cost ca 20k. sold half feb-apr-jun 22 proceeds 30k. Divis paid maybe 3-5k. So ignoring the divis, that share has paid me 10k for buying at the right time and I now hold shares valued at 35k which I paid nowt for [is one way of looking at it]. The price is now 10% off their top.

Why wouldn't I want to own more of something that was so great?

OTOH if I think they're going down soon, why would I not sell the rest. OK, there's no risk of a 'loss' on this overall but in a portfolio it needs to cover other likely losses that at some point will become forced [one or two of POLY EVR CINE HOC etc] to make the whole portfolio look OK.

Top slicing feels a bit like fence sitting.

If you top slice and do nothing with the gain I agree, but if you have spotted a better opportunity and are top slicing to fun that its surely called being an efficient investor?

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Plan-b said:

 

So your saying that Harley is Kim Coates the actor who appeared in the great series 'Sons of Anarchy'?

Awesome.

Well, he was apparently also the lead in 'The Scottish Play'... so kinda makes sense, but as always please dyor.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, BWW said:

I haven't got my head round top slicing.

Example: GLEN. bought jul-aug 20. cost ca 20k. sold half feb-apr-jun 22 proceeds 30k. Divis paid maybe 3-5k. So ignoring the divis, that share has paid me 10k for buying at the right time and I now hold shares valued at 35k which I paid nowt for [is one way of looking at it]. The price is now 10% off their top.

Why wouldn't I want to own more of something that was so great?

OTOH if I think they're going down soon, why would I not sell the rest. OK, there's no risk of a 'loss' on this overall but in a portfolio it needs to cover other likely losses that at some point will become forced [one or two of POLY EVR CINE HOC etc] to make the whole portfolio look OK.

Top slicing feels a bit like fence sitting.

A1++ questions, getting to the guts of it all.

Feck, there's that "meme" again...

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

If you top slice and do nothing with the gain I agree, but if you have spotted a better opportunity and are top slicing to fund that its surely called being an efficient investor?

Nailed - if you stop riding, you fall off...

[JMD]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

not that old chestnut again.

I want to take a shit myself, but i cant be arsed to go upstairs, so ill just put up with it and bake a cake in my bowels for now.

I think the correct phraseology (ref movie The Green Mile) is I'm 'cooking up a turd'.

[Red Debt Redemption]

40 minutes ago, Loki said:

Gains or capital?

Gainz

[Harley]

GLEN was a beaut in many ways......

2021, when overbought became more overbought...

And now, pause to digest, or vomit....

[jamtomorrow]

Blimey, catching up with the thread this morning and you'd think (a) this is the first time Bitcoin has fallen 75% from an ATH and (b) the cleansing bonfire of the leveraged is a bad thing.

Right now, I'm less worried about the value of my Bitcoin (it has always been this volatile) than my stake in the so-called "real" economy, where we have a backlog of 2 decades of leverage to clear.

[Pip321]

Good to see my purchase of Rio on Friday has caused the usual immediate further fall of price🤦🏻‍♂️. All due to iron ore prices and China looking at central sourcing.  

At least I may get another ladder in sooner than I thought 😆😆

Thinking about buying Bitcoin at $20k….that should guarantee it would drop to $5k🤦🏻‍♂️ 

 

[Boon]

21 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thing is, I know quite a few people with crypto, some were heavily into it years ago before most had heard of it.

 

Not a single one of them has sold anything. It's all "HODL!!!" as they thought it was going to 100k, then it would be a million etc. 

 

It makes me wonder, how many people ever actually sold crypto? I bet it's fewer than we might think.

 

You could replace the word crypto with the word 'Centrica' and maybe that would apply on here? The last 10 years have been even worse, basically not even boom and bust, all bust, but I at least will continue to hold because I'm convinced it'll be worth more. 

One thing that strikes me, if we have a 'can't afford heat' or 'cladding is making me broke' I tend to investigate the victim rather than the actual story as holes invariably form in their story.

Doesn't make sense then to take crypto losers at face value, often anonymous handles. No doubt there will be losses but I reckon a lot will be exaggerated, maybe in the hope that someone sends them something, others might try to embellish to say what big balls they had, others still ignore buy prices. Further people might only report uncrystallised losses.

I do think also a not insignificant amount is malicious, either government bots or rival cryptos trying some good old FUD.

In some ways the market is simply doing its job. Counterparty risk is still risk, excessive yield farming is unsustainable and much the equivalent of those companies selling at a loss in order to grow market share, most of the shitcoins are just that and with a lot of froth gone it will be impossible for them to bullshit the market. Excessive leverage results in a GFC style crash where one party going down results in a daisy chain of commitments going down, except there will be no central bank bailout.

It doesn't change the fundamentals for Bitcoin itself. Given that it could have a value of between close to zero and trillions, there should be a wide range of opinions on the subject and it should be the most volatile asset out there.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Blimey, catching up with the thread this morning and you'd think (a) this is the first time Bitcoin has fallen 75% from an ATH and (b) the cleansing bonfire of the leveraged is a bad thing.

Right now, I'm less worried about the value of my Bitcoin (it has always been this volatile) than my stake in the so-called "real" economy, where we have a backlog of 2 decades of leverage to clear.

Excellent point JT.The psot count went throught the roof this last week as @ThoughtCriminal highlighted ref there being a lot of noise/flapping amongst some late arrivals on thread(and one or two of our regulars who never miss a chance to show their wing span).

We don't own any BTC but it has fallen 75% a few times before.Nothing really new there except this time it took out a chunk of retail who prob bought high,sold low.It's always that way.

That and the predicted rate hike took the focus off what we should be concerned about which is your point in bold.A decades long problem unwinding that won't unwind overnight.

[sancho panza]

Gold has some interesting moves ongoing in the futures @Bricormortis mentioned this the otehr day and kaplan has highlighted it.Commercials net short by under 200,000 contracts,lowest since before the big move in 2018 from what I can see but nowhere near as compelling.I remember us discussing that at the time and @DurhamBorn /kaplan both saying it was a buying opportunity.Onbviously the trend could deepen so dyor natch

 

SIlver Futures commericals low net short.Good predictive record.Current net short runs backs to July 19 for comparable.

[ThoughtCriminal]

He doesn't mention the one time it actually was higher. Understandable given the history.

[geordie_lurch]

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He doesn't mention the one time it actually was higher. Understandable given the history.

I think that was before Russia shut off their gas further too

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think that was before Russia shut off their gas further too

They're in deep trouble come winter.

[Onsamui]

11 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Ah that bluffer has finally caught up then. He swore blind that $80 was a cap as would stimulate new supply. Not a practitioner.

Well the next two months will prove him right or wrong.

[ThoughtCriminal]

9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

He's already wrong, prices have averaged over $100 for 4 months. Oil dipping below $80 won't make him right either.

Doesn't seem to be any sign of demand destruction yet either.

[ThoughtCriminal]

We shouldn't laugh.

 

But fuck it.

 

🤣🤣🤣

[MMax]

On 19/06/2022 at 11:02, DurhamBorn said:

Houses will come down,but the young will of lost all their savings so cant take advantage.Wonder how many grannies left their grandkids £30k in their wills only for  them to lose it all in crypto.Its been an incredible scam though,maybe the biggest illusion since the tulip craze,but even worse.Some will of made life changing amounts and walked away of course,your just seeing the bag holders now.

I wonder if Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert - the bitcoin rampers - cashed out before the crash.  What is going to happen to their much lauded El Salvador whose president went all in on bitcoin?

[marceau]

On 19/06/2022 at 12:09, Lightscribe said:

Exactly, pension credit on the horizon too, rent paid for life. I think he’s more savvy than originally thought. Go red or bust (and get supported by the state anyway)

I thought state pension and pension credit were incompatible? If he's been paying NI this whole time he could actually be in a worse position. What a joke.