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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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4 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

 

I suspect you were left holding it!

ISA managed to escape with only 2nd degree burns (0.85cad) but SIPP got smoked.

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16 hours ago, snaga said:

Yes, I've been saying this about the £1k payments the banks and universities have been handing out.

The difference is an engineer or bank employee can 'vote with their feet' and go elsewhere, a university lecturer...well.....hence why the USS [University union] is so weak, and has to concentrate on WOKE issues to be seen to be doing something for their subs.

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15 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-uk-food-shop-rises-by-380-a-year-094514305.html

Average UK food shop rises by £380 a year

The average UK household is set to spend an extra £380 ($467) on grocery shopping this year, as food prices increase at their fastest rate in 13 years.

According to new data from Kantar Worldpanel, grocery price inflation surged to 8.3% in the last four weeks, up from 7% a month earlier, and the highest level since April 2009.

It represented a rise of more than £100 on the extra sum families were paying in April, adding further pressure to the sharp cost of living crisis, amid surging energy bills, and record fuel prices.

Yes, I have been doing some prepping for this and the YRS:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4PZXuk3TsM

 

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On 13/06/2022 at 01:31, BWW said:

The one very practical use of BTC I  learned about here is getting your Gazprom sale proceeds out of Russia.

I asked the question before, is this breaking some [sanction] rules and giving a potential problem if you convert that btc to fiat or not?

Of course there's an anology, drug sales proceeds are illegal and therefore BTC is a useful tool for those in that industry.

I never held gazprom, only POLY and EVR both of which I added to during their crash. I think my POLY is now only 10% down and may be tempting fate but the longer nothing happens in the realm of asset grabs / nationatisation, is POLY not becoming a screaming likely multibagger buy?

Anyone know why POLY went to shit today?

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is going to end either in war or the end of American hegemony.

 

Possibly even both.

It will end with the west re-tooling and producing again and the BRICS having to build a service economy.We will be poorer and consume less per capita,but no end of jobs.Ironic,but inflation means they can get rates up without too much risk,apart from over leveraged mortgages and BTL,they are finished.BTL will be horrific from here on.Bag holders.

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5 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, Biden wanting to reduce nicotine is old news. I can see one of those unintended consequences scenarios. People will smoke more, while they do that it gives them more time to offer one to someone else and get them smoking, it should make fags cheaper to produce so the profit margin increases. If share prices dropped on the news, it makes them a buy? I suppose it might make it easier to stop smoking but is there any need when there's less nicotine in them? :)

The thing is this proposal assume that the reason people smoke is the nicotine fix, and as we know your personal physiology will dictate whether you are highly, partly, or mildly addicted to a drug. What it doesn't do [alluded by @Democorruptcyin this post] is the social aspect i.e. how many people go a whole week without a ciggie and then on Fri/Saturday night indulge?....I hope all the World 'leaders' take a 'leaf out of Biden's book', and then I get a 'second bite of the 'gift that keeps on giving'.

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53 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I've been with Alexco for a long long time but I'm selling at the open if I can get anything resembling a decent price. When facts change, so does the assessment.

I still believe  it's great value long term, but I cannot accept missing out on shorter-term opportunities while they sort out Keno Hill.

I'll certainly be back when the time and price is right.

Or, perhaps, I won't be leaving at all if it skips through my fill & kill and dumps 20% at the open :D

Alot these miners just seem to be struggling to get any love

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4 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but how do you make a fag with less nicotine in it? Different breed of tobacco plant? Shorter stick??

image.png.07402f2b37a5f4ef3968efc01588fb57.png

 

...the equivalent of Low fat produce...take anything out that you actually enjoy!

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Eventually Right
5 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Alot these miners just seem to be struggling to get any love

AXU down 70% in 3 months-cursing myself for topping up in the last couple of weeks.

Maybe waiting a couple of months until the January 2025 leaps are released and buying at the money SLV calls is the way to go...leverage, time on your side, and no mining risks!

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18 minutes ago, No One said:

Anyone know why POLY went to shit today?

6 minutes ago, TNS said:

Potential sanctions on Russia and gold ?

Seems like it EU apparently said they are THINKING about sanctions on gold from Russia even though Switzerland has been buying it 

Personally i think its all bollocks

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3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Sorry if missed it but Sunak seems to be re-confirming triple lock state pension. Clearly there’s an argument about how far state pension actually goes and how political it is (with energy costs rising as fast as they are)

Yes, it will be reapplied a month after the next over 65's Covid booster roll-out....and also aligned with the Winter fuel payment :-)

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Virgil Caine
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will end with the west re-tooling and producing again and the BRICS having to build a service economy.We will be poorer and consume less per capita,but no end of jobs.Ironic,but inflation means they can get rates up without too much risk,apart from over leveraged mortgages and BTL,they are finished.BTL will be horrific from here on.Bag holders.

Western governments will  be able to inflate away some of the public debt accrued since 2008. Price and wage rises also mean more tax take particularly as personal tax allowances are frozen. The Chancellor is going to make out like a bandit from that move now inflation is 10% plus.

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2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

New QE?

Sorry Mr Belfield they are not 'victims', they chose to have the vaccine, if they didn't inform themselves properly of the risks they have to 'face' the consequences....with 'our' money as compensation...and if the government truly believe they deserve this why are they the government not going after Big Pharma?....because they are the ones who gave them a 'Get out of jail free' card!

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ThoughtCriminal
1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

I said ages ago this was going to be a fight to the death between the physical "petro" and fiat "dollar", if the resource rich countries no longer accept the printed money the only thing you can do is pay in something they will accept or invade and try to break them to your will.  The Brics are really too big to be broken, in addition to things like the Saudi's  sticking two fingers up at Biden and getting cosy with Russia, its end of the line IMO.

Keynes gets the last laugh after the US decided it was going down Dollar world reserve currency route and trashed his plan for commodity based system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor

 

He agrees with you.

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2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

As I’ve said previously to colleagues, in a few years, people will be looking back and thinking to themselves, what on earth possessed them to take on nearly £1/5-1m BTL debt and think it was a good idea. What was once considered savvy investing will suddenly seem very silly. Instead of boasting how many properties they have, they’ll suddenly go quiet as it will be a gauge of how much money they’re hemorrhaging.

The general masses follow the consensus and rarely look back or forward. All of a sudden property won’t be considered an investment and more of a money pit, especially large, old, energy sapping houses and BTL.

The issue is [as I have said on here a number of times] as the sums are so large people lack any 'feel' for what they are spending, and have become detached from reality. If they had to pay over the sum in cash [or work the extra hours required before getting the house] the "Its only another £10/20/30k more, and we would get our dream home" would soon 'evaporate'.

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1 hour ago, Boon said:

Imagine such a scenario where housebuilders are incentivised to go lower in quality and thus build blocks of flats at lower price points.

What you mean like this?

A kids house Out of Cardboard Box - YouTube

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1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry Mr Belfield they are not 'victims', they chose to have the vaccine, if they didn't inform themselves properly of the risks they have to 'face' the consequences....with 'our' money as compensation...and if the government truly believe they deserve this why are they the government not going after Big Pharma?....because they are the ones who gave them a 'Get out of jail free' card!

Exactly, if you're stupid enough to let someone inject you with an experimental drug for a disease that you're not  statistically at significant risk from, then the consequences should be on you.

NO REFUNDS.

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belfastchild
1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

 "Its only another £10/20/30k more, and we would get our dream home" would soon 'evaporate'.

On the other side of it, back at the height of the 2007 etc madness I heard stories of Dublin developers offering 20k under the asking price. When refused they would drive up with their bid amount in cash in a briefcase,knock on the door, ask to come in for a coffee, open the briefcase and say to the folk  that's what my bid looks like.

Not everyone was swayed but I'm sure a fair few were if it was common enough for stories to go round. I hear the we buy your house for cash lot did something similar but that was inviting people to an open evening in a hotel.

I've caught myself on a few times in contracts, holding out for an extra x percent when the wee voice in my head said if they appeared with a case full of cash in my living room right now I'd sign the fucking deal.

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Russian commodities traders replace Switzerland with Dubai
Ratcheting up of sanctions is promoting a migration of Russian businesses to Dubai as it becomes tougher to do business in Switzerland.


Traders of Russian commodities are rushing to set up businesses in Dubai as Switzerland makes it increasingly challenging for them to deal with Moscow.

 

Switzerland has for decades been home to middlemen helping to match Russian producers with buyers all over the world. Now, a ratcheting up of sanctions is prompting a migration to the emirate in the Persian Gulf.


Russia’s three largest oil producers are in the process of evaluating Dubai for trading operations, and several other firms have already relocated there. For Switzerland, some kind of exodus appears inevitable after the country followed European Union bans targeting exports from Russia.

“The trade will go on,” said Wouter Jacobs, director of the Erasmus Commodity & Trade Center at Erasmus University in Rotterdam. “Middle Eastern and Eastern jurisdictions will gain in importance relative to the rather euro-centric situation of the commodities business up to now.”

Swiss Sanctions
While Switzerland claims neutrality and won’t allow its weapons to be taken to the conflict zone, it has followed the EU in imposing increasingly stringent restrictions on some commodities, banks and individuals deemed close to the Kremlin.


By the end of 2022, the EU will have restrictions in place banning the insurance and financing of transporting Russian oil to countries outside of the bloc and Switzerland has said it will do likewise.


“A trade between Russia and China for energy may normally have been done by a commodity house in Switzerland, with financial support from a banker in London – who wants to do that now?” Jacobs said. “It’s likely outfits that do will necessarily move to a new jurisdiction.”


Executives from Russia’s state oil producer Rosneft PJSC have last month jetted into Dubai to explore the idea of a trading venture. Meantime, Gazprom Neft PJSC, Russia’s third-largest oil producer, is also looking to expand its presence in the city, people familiar with the matter said.


Litasco SA, the sales and trading arm of Russian energy giant Lukoil PJSC, is looking to relocate some Russian trading and operations staff to Dubai from Geneva in anticipation of making that the new central hub of the company and expanding on a small number of traders already there. Lukoil is Russia’s second-largest oil producer.

Another Geneva stalwart — Solaris Commodities, a trader of Russian grain, opened an office in Dubai last week, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the information is private.

Other Swiss towns are facing departures. Zug, long a hub for commodities trading because of its ultra-low taxes, became infamous globally in the 1980s as a refuge from US justice for legendary trader Marc Rich. Commodities businesses there are also looking to the Middle East.

Zug-based Suek AG, the exclusive marketer of coal from Russia’s biggest producer, is planning to set up a Dubai trading business. EuroChem Group AG, one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers with the majority of its assets in Russia is also setting up a Dubai-based venture. Both were formerly owned by billionaire Andrey Melnichenko until after the Ukraine war began.

 

full article here 

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/22/russian-commodities-traders-replace-switzerland-with-dubai

 

Seems the EU is just losing more business 

10/10 for effort

 

 

Also wonder what the UK will do going forward follow the EU rules or maybe get on with shit

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Talking Monkey
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will end with the west re-tooling and producing again and the BRICS having to build a service economy.We will be poorer and consume less per capita,but no end of jobs.Ironic,but inflation means they can get rates up without too much risk,apart from over leveraged mortgages and BTL,they are finished.BTL will be horrific from here on.Bag holders.

Won't it be a struggle for the BRICs to build a service economy DB if oil really gets going in price later in the decade, won't discretionary incomes in those countries be under pressure. 

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2 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

Western governments will  be able to inflate away some of the public debt accrued since 2008. Price and wage rises also mean more tax take particularly as personal tax allowances are frozen. The Chancellor is going to make out like a bandit from that move now inflation is 10% plus.

Retired coppers in my close ,3 of them on for £3000 a year increase in their pensions,£60 a week.Private sector worker needs to save £70k to get that.In my last job the workers got around £4k into their pensions a year so one year increase for those ex government workers will take them 17 years,so two years pension increases for retired public sector workers equals almost a working lifetime for a private sector worker on £30k.

The state is now taking all wealth and income into a black hole,we are very close to the event horizon.10% bennies and pension increases are horrific.Workers of course need to do as little as they can and opt out.

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