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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Retired coppers in my close ,3 of them on for £3000 a year increase in their pensions,£60 a week.Private sector worker needs to save £70k to get that.In my last job the workers got around £4k into their pensions a year so one year increase for those ex government workers will take them 17 years,so two years pension increases for retired public sector workers equals almost a working lifetime for a private sector worker on £30k.

The state is now taking all wealth and income into a black hole,we are very close to the event horizon.10% bennies and pension increases are horrific.Workers of course need to do as little as they can and opt out.

It's fubared. 

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19 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

Work gave us a surprise second annual pay rise out of the blue. This is in addition to the normal annual one. Never happened before.

Certainly getting interesting

We've just had the same at my place.  The frozen personal allowance is going to hurt a lot of people the way things are going.

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Democorruptcy
7 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Forgive me if this is a dumb question, but how do you make a fag with less nicotine in it? Different breed of tobacco plant? Shorter stick??

Maybe they could fill the space created by less nicotine, with a bit of salt? It would make people thirsty and a lot of folk like to have a fag if they are having a drink. :Beer:

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Democorruptcy
3 hours ago, kibuc said:

I've been with Alexco for a long long time but I'm selling at the open if I can get anything resembling a decent price. When facts change, so does the assessment.

I still believe  it's great value long term, but I cannot accept missing out on shorter-term opportunities while they sort out Keno Hill.

I'll certainly be back when the time and price is right.

Or, perhaps, I won't be leaving at all if it skips through my fill & kill and dumps 20% at the open :D

Currently 60 and -42% on the day, so well below your -20% fill & kills. It's the sort of day I thought you would be buying not selling. It must have been one hell of a updowndate!

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CannonFodder
48 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Rumour is he's going to ban oil exports.

 

Price controls next?

Isnt exports what europe was counting on without russian gas? Lol

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Currently 60 and -42% on the day, so well below your -20% fill & kills. It's the sort of day I thought you would be buying not selling. It must have been one hell of a updowndate!

Update in short: they're ceasing all mining operations until EOY to focus on mine development, as it's still not progressing as they'd like it to.

My F&K were actually at -12% but HL failed to submit them anyway so I scrambled to sell manually. Caught 0.85 in ISA and 0.75 in SIPP, could have been worse.

Building a mine is not easy and we're seeing some of the risks playing out here. I don't know whether it'll continue to fall or bounce back, there's definitely dillution coming soon although could be already priced in (...or not). At silly levels I might take a punt but generally I'd rather see a positive operational update first, even if it means missing out on that initial bounce. My portfolio is bleeding from multiple gun wounds and it's not the time to add on weakness (AXU, GRSL etc), more like running to quality.

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Talking Monkey
40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Retired coppers in my close ,3 of them on for £3000 a year increase in their pensions,£60 a week.Private sector worker needs to save £70k to get that.In my last job the workers got around £4k into their pensions a year so one year increase for those ex government workers will take them 17 years,so two years pension increases for retired public sector workers equals almost a working lifetime for a private sector worker on £30k.

The state is now taking all wealth and income into a black hole,we are very close to the event horizon.10% bennies and pension increases are horrific.Workers of course need to do as little as they can and opt out.

Where do you see this going DB in terms of how long this is sustainable, can't be more than a few years. In terms of desperate measures could we see some extreme wealth grab strategies to keep the show going. 

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UnconventionalWisdom
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will end with the west re-tooling and producing again and the BRICS having to build a service economy.We will be poorer and consume less per capita,but no end of jobs.Ironic,but inflation means they can get rates up without too much risk,apart from over leveraged mortgages and BTL,they are finished.BTL will be horrific from here on.Bag holders.

I'm hoping this will scare people from going all in and more on property. I have held off buying for years- partly because I never wanted to be tied down to an area but mainly because house prices are stupid. Living in the south east hasn't helped. Currently in a cool job in London and as it's a start up I hope for a sale in a couple of years. If it happens it would be great to put down routes and not have stupid levels of debt over me. 

A sensible housing market would be great- new joiners at work have PhDs and aren't on a bad wage but still have to share with strangers- criminal.

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Lightly Toasted
2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry Mr Belfield they are not 'victims', they chose to have the vaccine, if they didn't inform themselves properly of the risks they have to 'face' the consequences....with 'our' money as compensation...and if the government truly believe they deserve this why are they the government not going after Big Pharma?....because they are the ones who gave them a 'Get out of jail free' card!

It's a complete nightmare, how many £120k payments before the UK faces either bankruptcy or hyperinflation?

The (up to) £120k compensation scheme pre-existed the Covid jabs, and was a reasonable thing to have in a world where drugs were fully tested and/or not administered to entire populations.

Still, given that the state changed those ground rules & given that it lied about the jabs and coerced people into having them, it's reasonable that the state should be on the hook. Unfortunately "the state" is financially backed by thee and me and everyone else who opposed the madness of a mass-rollout of an untested drug.

The only counter is to absolutely minimise the amount of tax you pay.

Aside: I was expecting these cases to be dragged through the courts for years, as the government did with Pandemrix.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/10/boy-wins-120000-damages-narcolepsy-swine-flu-vaccine-glaxosmithkline

From a fiscal point of view it's quite worrying that they've caved.

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Democorruptcy
19 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Update in short: they're ceasing all mining operations until EOY to focus on mine development, as it's still not progressing as they'd like it to.

My F&K were actually at -12% but HL failed to submit them anyway so I scrambled to sell manually. Caught 0.85 in ISA and 0.75 in SIPP, could have been worse.

Building a mine is not easy and we're seeing some of the risks playing out here. I don't know whether it'll continue to fall or bounce back, there's definitely dillution coming soon although could be already priced in (...or not). At silly levels I might take a punt but generally I'd rather see a positive operational update first, even if it means missing out on that initial bounce. My portfolio is bleeding from multiple gun wounds and it's not the time to add on weakness (AXU, GRSL etc), more like running to quality.

It isn't one I'd have considered before your posts but stuck it on a watchlist and at 0.60 Cad I've just bought a few. I'm a sucker for the -40% in the day! Que sera....

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Bobthebuilder
31 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Where do you see this going DB in terms of how long this is sustainable, can't be more than a few years. In terms of desperate measures could we see some extreme wealth grab strategies to keep the show going. 

Not replying for Mr Durham, just chucking my bit in.

It is hugely inflationary, system collapse type nonsense, what's the point in carrying on against this type of stuff.

I run a small self employed business, and I am getting close to jacking it in. Had a call today from a customer with a boiler issue, not the easiest of repairs and I would normally have done it, I said no, I am too busy, its not worth the hassle anymore. HMRC is fucked, bennies are fucked, police, government, council, teachers the list goes on. They now want me to change to a digital tax system from 2024, so I have to spend £1000 on software every year just so I can tell them I dont owe any tax.

It has gone mental.

I have decided to retire.

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HousePriceMania
5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Not replying for Mr Durham, just chucking my bit in.

It is hugely inflationary, system collapse type nonsense, what's the point in carrying on against this type of stuff.

I run a small self employed business, and I am getting close to jacking it in. Had a call today from a customer with a boiler issue, not the easiest of repairs and I would normally have done it, I said no, I am too busy, its not worth the hassle anymore. HMRC is fucked, bennies are fucked, police, government, council, teachers the list goes on. They now want me to change to a digital tax system from 2024, so I have to spend £1000 on software every year just so I can tell them I dont owe any tax.

It has gone mental.

I have decided to retire.

Had to do the digital vat thing. As you say people wanted 100s of £s to submit a vat return i did 4 times a year on a bit of paper. 

Some software skills allowed me to knock up my own version in a couple of days. 

Was interesting to do but you do need some programming/networking knowledge. 

I thought about making it public but since no fucker helps me why should I help them 

Maybe tho, some nice person, idiot, has posted a free version on the net. 

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Well the first one worked out so well for the West,why not have anotehr.

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Update in short: they're ceasing all mining operations until EOY to focus on mine development, as it's still not progressing as they'd like it to.

My F&K were actually at -12% but HL failed to submit them anyway so I scrambled to sell manually. Caught 0.85 in ISA and 0.75 in SIPP, could have been worse.

Building a mine is not easy and we're seeing some of the risks playing out here. I don't know whether it'll continue to fall or bounce back, there's definitely dillution coming soon although could be already priced in (...or not). At silly levels I might take a punt but generally I'd rather see a positive operational update first, even if it means missing out on that initial bounce. My portfolio is bleeding from multiple gun wounds and it's not the time to add on weakness (AXU, GRSL etc), more like running to quality.

Keep the wounds clean,this is our biggest small PM miner position.Such is life.We'd happily take the upside.

Remember selling our last ladder in Amerigo for CAD $0.20 or some such at the bottom in that.Head hits table.

One of the benefits of spray n pray is that we can live with this sort of happening.Shame as they seemed one of the best prospects out there.

I had a look at the board a while back and those guys have invested the best years of their lives in that project.If we're feeling miserable,they msut be gutted.

We bought some KGC/AU/NEWC last week and are adding more.Sticking to the big guys at these prices but then we're already fully loaded with the smaller plays.

@Democorruptcy played a potentially smart move at $0.45 USD.Wish our average rpice was that low:ph34r:

image.png.a14688790246264d7cd699c3d902867e.png

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1 hour ago, CannonFodder said:

Isnt exports what europe was counting on without russian gas? Lol

This was what was predicted in a link in this thread ... us ban oli exports creating a local oli market. US will be paying 70usd while everyone else is paying 200usd.

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57 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

GB News Farage at 7pm, now discussing what's the point of working when bennies getting inflation rises.

Farage is quite astute about latching on to the right bandwagons. We have been talking about it on here for a while of course, but this seems like it is about to go very mainstream.

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39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Not replying for Mr Durham, just chucking my bit in.

It is hugely inflationary, system collapse type nonsense, what's the point in carrying on against this type of stuff.

I run a small self employed business, and I am getting close to jacking it in. Had a call today from a customer with a boiler issue, not the easiest of repairs and I would normally have done it, I said no, I am too busy, its not worth the hassle anymore. HMRC is fucked, bennies are fucked, police, government, council, teachers the list goes on. They now want me to change to a digital tax system from 2024, so I have to spend £1000 on software every year just so I can tell them I dont owe any tax.

It has gone mental.

I have decided to retire.

Oh yeah I heard an advert in the radio about tax software. I Thought it was just a business only thing but are they rolling it out to individuals ? Seems a bit loopy. I need to research.Do you have to buy a certified software package ? Presumably landlords have to do it? So many questions.

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CannonFodder

I dont think higher gov interest payments on gov bonds due to rate increases is as big an issue.

So much is on BOE balance sheet that HMT will pay BOE who will hand back.

They paying themselves.

 

They will need money though that isa given so the question is not if they go after but who and what.

Fiscal drag and income a good earner

IHT the big one i think

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

so two years pension increases for retired public sector workers equals almost a working lifetime for a private sector worker

Shocking, isn’t it? And so few people understand it. I know many retired public sector, one got finished at 50. Their level of spending is, quite frankly, unbelievable. Hard-working private sector workers getting pennies a week put into that shitshow NEST. I left it far too late, but after my last contract I did everything I could to get a public sector job. It’s not easy and not well-paid but it gives me at least a chance of a small pension.

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Bobthebuilder
5 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Oh yeah I heard an advert in the radio about tax software. I Thought it was just a business only thing but are they rolling it out to individuals ? Seems a bit loopy. I need to research.Do you have to buy a certified software package ? Presumably landlords have to do it? So many questions.

It has been on the cards for years, but they keep putting it off. My sister is an accountant, I asked her if she could do it for me to avoid getting the software, she said no you have to submit it to me in the digital accounts form. She then told me that 90% of the small hobby / retired traders have said they will jack in when it comes into force.

They really are fucking everything up.

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CannonFodder
30 minutes ago, snaga said:

This was what was predicted in a link in this thread ... us ban oli exports creating a local oli market. US will be paying 70usd while everyone else is paying 200usd.

:) 

Feb 4th - even before the war , noises were that america was going to cut europe off

Screenshot_20220622-203423_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a19496f62bc1a6378ca4623acb70b4a1.jpg

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OurDayWillCome
12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It has been on the cards for years, but they keep putting it off. My sister is an accountant, I asked her if she could do it for me to avoid getting the software, she said no you have to submit it to me in the digital accounts form. She then told me that 90% of the small hobby / retired traders have said they will jack in when it comes into force.

They really are fucking everything up.

Just use bridging software, no need for anything expensive, can be input into a spreadsheet and then the bridging software does the submission in a digital format…

https://123sheets.com

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Joncrete Cungle
1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Not replying for Mr Durham, just chucking my bit in.

It is hugely inflationary, system collapse type nonsense, what's the point in carrying on against this type of stuff.

I run a small self employed business, and I am getting close to jacking it in. Had a call today from a customer with a boiler issue, not the easiest of repairs and I would normally have done it, I said no, I am too busy, its not worth the hassle anymore. HMRC is fucked, bennies are fucked, police, government, council, teachers the list goes on. They now want me to change to a digital tax system from 2024, so I have to spend £1000 on software every year just so I can tell them I dont owe any tax.

It has gone mental.

I have decided to retire.

Is it still over £10k turnover that have to mess about with the digital tax bollocks? As two of the trades I use and trust (family member of a friend and a friend of a friend) both off the record said they will continue to do xx yy zz if I want but they will only take payment in cash.

Could the unintended consequences of MTD revive cash payments as trades try to stay under the threshold? Less VAT and tax for HMRC as a result? Turn over £9k working 'part time' and claim bennies? Jobs fooked!

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