Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

Recommended Posts

Bobthebuilder
2 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

Is it still over £10k turnover that have to mess about with the digital tax bollocks? As two of the trades I use and trust (family member of a friend and a friend of a friend) both off the record said they will continue to do xx yy zz if I want but they will only take payment in cash.

Could the unintended consequences of MTD revive cash payments as trades try to stay under the threshold? Less VAT and tax for HMRC as a result? Turn over £9k working 'part time' and claim bennies? Jobs fooked!

£10k is the current minimum.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 30.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Bobthebuilder
8 minutes ago, OurDayWillCome said:

Just use bridging software, no need for anything expensive, can be input into a spreadsheet and then the bridging software does the submission in a digital format…

https://123sheets.com

I hear you, but what's the point for a small business whilst everyone else is getting 10% of your non profit.

It has gone way past complying with a bit of free software. Fuck em.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

OurDayWillCome
7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I hear you, but what's the point for a small business whilst everyone else is getting 10% of your non profit.

It has gone way past complying with a bit of free software. Fuck em.

I agree, it’s all utter bullshit. And the bridging software is no doubt only a temporary option. HMRC will probably stop businesses from being able to use this method of submission in a couple of years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I hear you, but what's the point for a small business whilst everyone else is getting 10% of your non profit.

It has gone way past complying with a bit of free software. Fuck em.

Nailed it there BtB

 

The digital tax thing is not the problem, the problem is being robbed blind to pay for ever unproductive useless cunt to have a better life than you. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

Had to do the digital vat thing. As you say people wanted 100s of £s to submit a vat return i did 4 times a year on a bit of paper. 

Some software skills allowed me to knock up my own version in a couple of days. 

I did the same thing. Stuck it on AWS and charge people a few quid a year to use it. Currently have over a thousand customers and growing now that MTD is being rolled out more widely. Was an interesting learning experience.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

baffledbyzirp
2 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

It's a complete nightmare, how many £120k payments before the UK faces either bankruptcy or hyperinflation?

The (up to) £120k compensation scheme pre-existed the Covid jabs, and was a reasonable thing to have in a world where drugs were fully tested and/or not administered to entire populations.

Still, given that the state changed those ground rules & given that it lied about the jabs and coerced people into having them, it's reasonable that the state should be on the hook. Unfortunately "the state" is financially backed by thee and me and everyone else who opposed the madness of a mass-rollout of an untested drug.

The only counter is to absolutely minimise the amount of tax you pay.

Aside: I was expecting these cases to be dragged through the courts for years, as the government did with Pandemrix.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/10/boy-wins-120000-damages-narcolepsy-swine-flu-vaccine-glaxosmithkline

From a fiscal point of view it's quite worrying that they've caved.

THE IOPC child abuse inquiry into Police failings in Rotherham was finally released after eight years. The cost of the report was upward of £6,000,000.00 and it is estimated that over 1,400 children were abused. The most severe punishment for one negligent and indifferent police officer was a final written warning. Blame it seems was institutional rather than individual. Many of the guilty had already retired on full pensions thereby escaping justice and exposure.

Can you even imagine the level of compensation due to the victims of these heinous crimes? Add to that the cost of prosecuting and incarcerating the sick SOBs who perpetrated the crimes. Let's not forget the pensions and wages of officers who knowingly turned a blind eye to children being raped. Finally there are costs relating to wrongful dismissal for the few decent individuals who tried to blow the whistle. 

Don't forget that this pattern of predatory behaviour has been replicated in Rochdale, Keighley, Oldham, Leicester, Bradford, Dewsbury and numerous other towns and cities. 

If our Police Forces are unable or unwilling to protect children why do we shell out ever more money for 'bobbies on the beat?' The failings in Rotherham are emblematic of the Public Sector more broadly. In this instance less would be more.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will end with the west re-tooling and producing again and the BRICS having to build a service economy.We will be poorer and consume less per capita,but no end of jobs.Ironic,but inflation means they can get rates up without too much risk,apart from over leveraged mortgages and BTL,they are finished.BTL will be horrific from here on.Bag holders.

Agree.

In terms of BTL I see you always distinguish and make clear it’s the over leveraged who are finished and I agree completely.

In 2015 when s24 (mortgage interest relief restricted to 20%) was introduced and I joined and had my moan on 118 property website as any self respecting ‘bloodsucking’ landlord would…fair enough. However, what I then realised was the LLs on 118 were talking numbers that were mind blowing….and they were financially illiterate and really entitled. It’s okay to moan but not to reall believe everyone owes you a living. 

One quoted £30k interest and £50k rent (ie £20k profit) which seemed high….until I realised that was a fucking month.🤦🏻‍♂️  The most bewildering thing was what on Earth had they done with their profits for the last 10 years….clearly spent them on range rovers and quails eggs. 

The entitlement threw me….I had gone for a moan and some ideas, but I quickly realised I was in an environment of fucktards. A gang I didn’t want to belong to

Where the wheels fall off is the real leveraged landlords…interest only mortgages will really pump up once the fixed deal ends. Yields based on recent prices are super low….suddenly £30k a month is £50k or more a month….and that’s where S24 kills the whole thing. The LL is taxed on the gross rent ie £50k a month, but can only claim at basic rate the interest back. It’s the same for small landlords who have other income too….effectively higher interest rates destroy the model for higher earners 

I keep some debt, but also enough cash (with a little shares in play too) to repay my debts if need be, and I think from an inflation and interest rate viewpoint I am ok (well okay as can be). If rates rocket I win on the cash to pay the debt….really I hold it like revolving credit and a tax offset. S24 for me is an academic challenge rather than a financial one.

I think the huge growth in BTL will die…..and some bigger individuals who are leveraged will give a great buying opportunity for those looking to buy their first homes.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HousePriceMania
42 minutes ago, AWW said:

I did the same thing. Stuck it on AWS and charge people a few quid a year to use it. Currently have over a thousand customers and growing now that MTD is being rolled out more widely. Was an interesting learning experience.

Should have done the same but really couldn't be arsed with fixing issues and supporting stuff. Would make more getting a part time job 😊

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Where do you see this going DB in terms of how long this is sustainable, can't be more than a few years. In terms of desperate measures could we see some extreme wealth grab strategies to keep the show going. 

Until recession and PAYE drops.Sunak was on today and said putting up pensions and bennies wasnt inflationary because it doesnt affect input costs and thats the difference with wages,so wage restraint is where action is needed.

It was incredible to hear this schoolboy error.Its so wrong on macro terms where do you start?.He thinks the coppers in my close getting £3k increases isnt inflationary?.We are in a commodity and consumption inflation,so extra consumption takes directly off someone else.Its insane.He is the dumbest resident of no 11 alongside Brown,or he is lieing.Or both.

These are facts.In every street in the UK those working are going to get less than those not working at every level.From the single mother with one kid,to retired civil servants.Every single private sector worker will range from worse off,to badly worse off.Anyone with a fixed annuity will be slaughtered (horrible,but why i like insurers).

Osborne did some good work on welfare,at least a start,Sunak has wiped it out and more.UK is fucked with these in charge.Collapse of the private sector isnt out of the question the policy errors are so big.Outside of that higher inflation for longer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, No One said:

Anyone know why POLY went to shit today?

It goes to shit everyday lately doesn't it?

Some rumour about gold sanctions I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CannonFodder said:

I dont think higher gov interest payments on gov bonds due to rate increases is as big an issue.

So much is on BOE balance sheet that HMT will pay BOE who will hand back.

They paying themselves.

 

They will need money though that isa given so the question is not if they go after but who and what.

Fiscal drag and income a good earner

IHT the big one i think

The frozen allowances are the killer i think.Only hope for the UK is gilt sales failing to pull these loons in.BOE cant print thats for certain,unless they increased rates sharply as well.

Telling workers to fuck off,telling bennies and retired have a load more money.Its incredible really,is it even real?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think @HousePriceMania you'd struggle to find something that pays low teens for half an hour a week's work, if that. It's not megabucks but it pays for a few nice treats.

I'd encourage you to either launch it as a service for others to use, or stick the code on github. I'm always impressed by commercially successful side projects and publicly viewable code portfolios when interviewing, however minor the success or niche the application.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ashestoashes
3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The frozen allowances are the killer i think.Only hope for the UK is gilt sales failing to pull these loons in.BOE cant print thats for certain,unless they increased rates sharply as well.

Telling workers to fuck off,telling bennies and retired have a load more money.Its incredible really,is it even real?

think it's started a debate, there waseven some woman saying you should passa test before being allowed to have children

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry Mr Belfield they are not 'victims', they chose to have the vaccine, if they didn't inform themselves properly of the risks they have to 'face' the consequences....with 'our' money as compensation...and if the government truly believe they deserve this why are they the government not going after Big Pharma?....because they are the ones who gave them a 'Get out of jail free' card!

This will be the next PPI i.e. helicopter money pushed out to stimulate the economy to people too stupid to realise what they are signing up for, by people "that really have their best interests at heart" 

Is all so obviously a massive preempted incestuous circle jerk to anyone with half a brain cell. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The frozen allowances are the killer i think.Only hope for the UK is gilt sales failing to pull these loons in.BOE cant print thats for certain,unless they increased rates sharply as well.

Telling workers to fuck off,telling bennies and retired have a load more money.Its incredible really,is it even real?

Everything in this stinking isle is now a reason to pinch yourself daily. 

Opting out of tax HOWEVER you can manage is the only thing you can do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, kibuc said:

Update in short: they're ceasing all mining operations until EOY to focus on mine development, as it's still not progressing as they'd like it to.

My F&K were actually at -12% but HL failed to submit them anyway so I scrambled to sell manually. Caught 0.85 in ISA and 0.75 in SIPP, could have been worse.

Building a mine is not easy and we're seeing some of the risks playing out here. I don't know whether it'll continue to fall or bounce back, there's definitely dillution coming soon although could be already priced in (...or not). At silly levels I might take a punt but generally I'd rather see a positive operational update first, even if it means missing out on that initial bounce. My portfolio is bleeding from multiple gun wounds and it's not the time to add on weakness (AXU, GRSL etc), more like running to quality.

Fuck me, that hurt me hard today. Alexco was one of my larger miner holdings. Really need that precious metal boom anyday now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Fuck me, that hurt me hard today. Alexco was one of my larger miner holdings. Really need that precious metal boom anyday now!

It's coming, right after we crack nuclear fusion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Agree.

In terms of BTL I see you always distinguish and make clear it’s the over leveraged who are finished and I agree completely.

In 2015 when s24 (mortgage interest relief restricted to 20%) was introduced and I joined and had my moan on 118 property website as any self respecting ‘bloodsucking’ landlord would…fair enough. However, what I then realised was the LLs on 118 were talking numbers that were mind blowing….and they were financially illiterate and really entitled. It’s okay to moan but not to reall believe everyone owes you a living. 

One quoted £30k interest and £50k rent (ie £20k profit) which seemed high….until I realised that was a fucking month.🤦🏻‍♂️  The most bewildering thing was what on Earth had they done with their profits for the last 10 years….clearly spent them on range rovers and quails eggs. 

The entitlement threw me….I had gone for a moan and some ideas, but I quickly realised I was in an environment of fucktards. A gang I didn’t want to belong to

Where the wheels fall off is the real leveraged landlords…interest only mortgages will really pump up once the fixed deal ends. Yields based on recent prices are super low….suddenly £30k a month is £50k or more a month….and that’s where S24 kills the whole thing. The LL is taxed on the gross rent ie £50k a month, but can only claim at basic rate the interest back. It’s the same for small landlords who have other income too….effectively higher interest rates destroy the model for higher earners 

I keep some debt, but also enough cash (with a little shares in play too) to repay my debts if need be, and I think from an inflation and interest rate viewpoint I am ok (well okay as can be). If rates rocket I win on the cash to pay the debt….really I hold it like revolving credit and a tax offset. S24 for me is an academic challenge rather than a financial one.

I think the huge growth in BTL will die…..and some bigger individuals who are leveraged will give a great buying opportunity for those looking to buy their first homes.   

My view on BTL is that it's fuelled by demand i.e. immigration. Credit will almost always be readily available. 

During the last 12 months, this government issued a record 1 million visas in third world countries to replace a much smaller number of EU types. They will do it again this year, next year and so on. That's another 3 million humans requiring shelter by the next GE in May 2024. 

The primary purpose of the Conservative Party since its formation has been to 'conserve' the wealth of landowners and, in particular, those who derive income from land rent. This includes all forms of capital from publically listed corporate to high net worth individuals. Public sector Karen may get her fingers burnt 'investing' her pension in low grade BTL, but the major players won't.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, 23rdian said:

Everything in this stinking isle is now a reason to pinch yourself daily. 

Opting out of tax HOWEVER you can manage is the only thing you can do.

The key to the future is not letting the UK government make its problems into your problems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
8 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

THE IOPC child abuse inquiry into Police failings in Rotherham was finally released after eight years. The cost of the report was upward of £6,000,000.00 and it is estimated that over 1,400 children were abused. The most severe punishment for one negligent and indifferent police officer was a final written warning. Blame it seems was institutional rather than individual. Many of the guilty had already retired on full pensions thereby escaping justice and exposure.

Can you even imagine the level of compensation due to the victims of these heinous crimes? Add to that the cost of prosecuting and incarcerating the sick SOBs who perpetrated the crimes. Let's not forget the pensions and wages of officers who knowingly turned a blind eye to children being raped. Finally there are costs relating to wrongful dismissal for the few decent individuals who tried to blow the whistle. 

Don't forget that this pattern of predatory behaviour has been replicated in Rochdale, Keighley, Oldham, Leicester, Bradford, Dewsbury and numerous other towns and cities. 

If our Police Forces are unable or unwilling to protect children why do we shell out ever more money for 'bobbies on the beat?' The failings in Rotherham are emblematic of the Public Sector more broadly. In this instance less would be more.

 

It a prime example of what happens when the ‘woke’ culture gets embedded from the top down into the management structure. It was reported and highlighted multiple times. Any coverups should be re-trialed at court if the officers are retired. 
In some of the smaller county forces the senior leadership (like in this case) was so desperate to save face in promoting community cohesion than dealing with the basis of what they’re there for, policing and crime. Ultimately it’s those who are most protected in the senior decision making who need to face trial.

Not all are tarred with the same brush however. Larger forces have specific teams, that deal exactly with these types of crime, regardless of any political factors. There’s proactive teams, overnight high risk takedowns and fast time warrants busting doors down you name it. It just doesn’t make the papers (which again can be influenced on what they cover).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AlfredTheLittle
5 hours ago, Sidd said:

Fuck me, that hurt me hard today. Alexco was one of my larger miner holdings. Really need that precious metal boom anyday now!

Me too, but my far too vague understanding (why do I gamble on things I don't really know anything about!) is that they're currently operating at a loss in any case, so pausing their operations to develop the mine, while the silver price is low, seems to make sense as they'll have more to sell when (if) prices rise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
5 hours ago, Sidd said:

Fuck me, that hurt me hard today. Alexco was one of my larger miner holdings. Really need that precious metal boom anyday now!

Yeah not pleasant. Six months in sorting out the mine. I’m couple of k down in each account.

Still that could be the last of our worries in the next few months. Seems to be a conversion of shit hitting the collective fan around about October. 

Just hope the smaller miners in general wheels don’t fall off in the face of hyper-inflating energy costs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Where do you see this going DB in terms of how long this is sustainable, can't be more than a few years. In terms of desperate measures could we see some extreme wealth grab strategies to keep the show going. 

It makes Labour unelectable.

Labour have to break away from the public sector/support for the unfunded pensions.

They cant - Labour have shrink into being he party of the public sector.

LibDem arnt much better.

Id assume then the UK is facing a big political shift with a new party.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, tank said:

My view on BTL is that it's fuelled by demand i.e. immigration. Credit will almost always be readily available. 

During the last 12 months, this government issued a record 1 million visas in third world countries to replace a much smaller number of EU types. They will do it again this year, next year and so on. That's another 3 million humans requiring shelter by the next GE in May 2024. 

The primary purpose of the Conservative Party since its formation has been to 'conserve' the wealth of landowners and, in particular, those who derive income from land rent. This includes all forms of capital from publically listed corporate to high net worth individuals. Public sector Karen may get her fingers burnt 'investing' her pension in low grade BTL, but the major players won't.

IO BTL is/was driven by the availability of cheap debt.

The migrants arrived  to full the houses and icnrease demand.

IO BTL is grossly mispriced/wrongly classified. Effectively IO BTL is a non amortising business loan.

There is an unholy symbiotic relation that links IO BTL, TC/UCs, high migration and low rates.

There are *NO* major players in IO BTL - its fuckwits like Fat Fergus.

Ive never met a wealthy person who didnt think IO BTL was insane, in terms of risk and leverage.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...