Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Until recession and PAYE drops.Sunak was on today and said putting up pensions and bennies wasnt inflationary because it doesnt affect input costs and thats the difference with wages,so wage restraint is where action is needed.

It was incredible to hear this schoolboy error.Its so wrong on macro terms where do you start?.He thinks the coppers in my close getting £3k increases isnt inflationary?.We are in a commodity and consumption inflation,so extra consumption takes directly off someone else.Its insane.He is the dumbest resident of no 11 alongside Brown,or he is lieing.Or both.

These are facts.In every street in the UK those working are going to get less than those not working at every level.From the single mother with one kid,to retired civil servants.Every single private sector worker will range from worse off,to badly worse off.Anyone with a fixed annuity will be slaughtered (horrible,but why i like insurers).

Osborne did some good work on welfare,at least a start,Sunak has wiped it out and more.UK is fucked with these in charge.Collapse of the private sector isnt out of the question the policy errors are so big.Outside of that higher inflation for longer.

The answer is he’s lying DB. They’ve all been lying through their teeth the last couple of years. What we are seeing is pure theater.

BoE rate predictions, Fed inflation predictions, western governments catastrophic failure on energy policy and investment, ridiculous allocation of stimulus.

Occam’s razor says at least some of these ‘educated’ leaders in their field must be able to understand basic concepts about what we talk about here (or even their advisors who orbit them).

Looking at it the other way, how would you actively go about destroying an economy in a specific timeframe?

Personally myself, I would first focus on creating stagflation knowing that suddenly lurching towards that from a 40 year disinflation cycle would cause maximum volatility. Then focus on supply chain itself which is the life-blood of the economy.

Push up oil/gas prices (through lockdowns/war), reducing production and supply to create demand and shortages. Curtail other energy sources investment to restrict and ensure shortage’s sends prices and manufacturing/production/logistics costs upwards at supply end.

Now the consumer end. Printed money injected into the non-productive areas, (bounce back loans, furlough) knowing that would feedback into bubble assets like cars/tech/FAANGs/crypto (that will be destroyed in stagflation anyway) but more importantly create a housing demand and a shortage for raw materials. Take those inflation kindlings and remove the stamp duty to and nudge open the backdoor a bit further through immigration to send housing assets into overdrive knowing a recession blow off was coming.

Give the non-productive classes inflation increases to ensure an inflationary spiral is created. Raise IR rates just enough and raise taxes on the consumer and working classes, who have to cut down massively on spending due to spiraling cost of living ensuring a recession (we are here)

Once stagflation is achieved, (if it isn’t I’d throw in another pandemic) to make sure businesses close, job opportunities go from excess mass vacancies to limited specialist roles (need key roles don’t want to implode the country). Mortgage defaults, rental voids, BTL sell up. House price crash. Who knew so much of the economy was based on house prices? Construction work is dead in the water. Those EE’rs that are not on the benefit system go elsewhere to find work.

Younger generation are broke through defaults and can’t afford to have children. We need replacement migration and a government benefit system to help the majority of the country that are now dependent on support from the government.

We need to build back better. 

https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/ageing/replacement-migration.asp

I may put this image in my signature. 

[belfastchild]

11 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It has been on the cards for years, but they keep putting it off. My sister is an accountant, I asked her if she could do it for me to avoid getting the software, she said no you have to submit it to me in the digital accounts form. She then told me that 90% of the small hobby / retired traders have said they will jack in when it comes into force.

They really are fucking everything up.

Im going to jack it in when that happens as well. I wrote a couple of linked spreadsheets back when I first started and it auto calculates all of it and gives me the figures to fill in the boxes. Ive updated as I went along as its one spreadsheet now and much simpler. Add in my end of month values and the workload is minimal, do my online tax return in about 20 mins.

Filled in last years tax return last week and renewed my business insurance. Was tempted not to, have been cutting back on the amount insured the last couple of years as I know one of these years Im not going to need it.

Started quoting ridiculous prices for all new enquiries.

A friend of a friend has just been given notice on the flat they have been renting for the past 14 years. Landlord is an ex-peeler who bought two of them new 'as their pension' (pension used to buy something for their pension?), having to sell up due to the new tax rules apparently. Rent etc for the last 14 years may just cover the drop in prices since they bought, or probably not.

[Talking Monkey]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Until recession and PAYE drops.Sunak was on today and said putting up pensions and bennies wasnt inflationary because it doesnt affect input costs and thats the difference with wages,so wage restraint is where action is needed.

It was incredible to hear this schoolboy error.Its so wrong on macro terms where do you start?.He thinks the coppers in my close getting £3k increases isnt inflationary?.We are in a commodity and consumption inflation,so extra consumption takes directly off someone else.Its insane.He is the dumbest resident of no 11 alongside Brown,or he is lieing.Or both.

These are facts.In every street in the UK those working are going to get less than those not working at every level.From the single mother with one kid,to retired civil servants.Every single private sector worker will range from worse off,to badly worse off.Anyone with a fixed annuity will be slaughtered (horrible,but why i like insurers).

Osborne did some good work on welfare,at least a start,Sunak has wiped it out and more.UK is fucked with these in charge.Collapse of the private sector isnt out of the question the policy errors are so big.Outside of that higher inflation for longer.

Agree with all that DB, my take on Sunak is he is being dishonest and actually knows the damage he is doing. I can't see how he doesn't understand the consequences of what he is doing. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

Tick tock...........

[HousePriceMania]

8 hours ago, AWW said:

I think @HousePriceMania you'd struggle to find something that pays low teens for half an hour a week's work, if that. It's not megabucks but it pays for a few nice treats.

I'd encourage you to either launch it as a service for others to use, or stick the code on github. I'm always impressed by commercially successful side projects and publicly viewable code portfolios when interviewing, however minor the success or niche the application.

I'll have  a think about it.

I'm always amazed that someone will give someting away from free and think...don't want someone like that working for my company 

9 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Agree with all that DB, my take on Sunak is he is being dishonest and actually knows the damage he is doing. I can't see how he doesn't understand the consequences of what he is doing. 

I agree.  The question then is, what's the ex-GS bankers ultimate goal ?

[DoINeedOne]

13 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Not replying for Mr Durham, just chucking my bit in.

It is hugely inflationary, system collapse type nonsense, what's the point in carrying on against this type of stuff.

I run a small self employed business, and I am getting close to jacking it in. Had a call today from a customer with a boiler issue, not the easiest of repairs and I would normally have done it, I said no, I am too busy, its not worth the hassle anymore. HMRC is fucked, bennies are fucked, police, government, council, teachers the list goes on. They now want me to change to a digital tax system from 2024, so I have to spend £1000 on software every year just so I can tell them I dont owe any tax.

It has gone mental.

I have decided to retire.

Interesting some of the replies here after your post, Yesterday we finished off the process of closing our LTD company its been good to me, good years and shitty years like any business  but i just wasn't enjoying it anymore working on stuff running in different timezones (Advertising Online) 

Burnt myself out at times 

Now going play around with a few projects 

The headache of being self employed or a business owner at times i will never understand i know at least 3 self employed people who had to pretty much commit fraud just to get a mortgage even though they earned well, but because it was not stable month to month

Take construction which you will know most builders will get paid in lumps when jobs are completed etc... not like most on the 25th of every month, but that business owner knows and manages money most of the time better 

 

For me i thought about going back into construction but it gives me a headache even thinking about it 

 

 

8 hours ago, 23rdian said:

It goes to shit everyday lately doesn't it?

Some rumour about gold sanctions I think.

 

Polymetal announces the appointment of a new auditor. 

 

Business update

Polymetal provides an update on its business, including the current impact of sanctions against Russia.

At the time of writing, the Group states that:
Sales of gold bullion and concentrates from Kazakhstan continue as usual.
Sales of gold bullion and concentrates from Russian mines to diverse Asian markets returned to regular schedule after significant COVID-related slowdown in April and May. The sales terms remain broadly consistent with those received earlier.

Polymetal currently does not sell any of its products to Russian Central Bank or its affiliates, directly or indirectly.
Silver bullion inventory continues to accumulate absent reliable export channels and non-existent domestic market. Discussions are under way with a variety of commercial and industrial international buyers. Silver bullion accounts for less than 5% of Company’s expected sales in 2022.

Sales logistics continue to experience significant challenges due to the COVID restrictions in China and impact of the sanctions, leading to slower inventory turnover and higher selling costs. The gap between production and sales and the resulting finished goods inventory are expected to peak in September.

Net debt increased to US$ 2.3 billion as of 1 June (31 March 2022: US$ 2.0 billion) driven by large working capital increase and accelerated procurement. 74% of the total debt is denominated in US$.

The Group has approximately US$ 0.3 billion in cash deposited with non-sanctioned financial institutions. In addition, the Company maintains US$ 0.4 billion of undrawn credit lines from non-sanctioned banks. This amount, combined, covers the expected debt repayments in the next 6 months.

Lending in Russia is available in both RUB and USD. RUB interest rates decreased significantly to 11-12% following Russian Central Bank’s benchmark rate decrease to 9.5%.

Polymetal is currently financing its short-term working capital requirements with USD-denominated debt at lower interest rates. The Group has recently secured US$ 0.2 billion in new revolving credit lines and plans to sign an additional US$ 0.3 billion revolving credit facility in June.
 

Polymetal operations in Russia and Kazakhstan continue undisrupted. Production guidance of 1.7 Moz for 2022 is maintained.
Medium-term development projects (POX-2, Kutyn, Urals Flotation, Prognoz) progress as previously reported.  Sharp rouble appreciation and continued logistical challenges are exerting significant upward pressure on capital expenditures.
The 110-kV line linking Nezhda mine to the regional grid, powered by the combination of hydro and gas, has been successfully commissioned. Previously operating diesel-powered gensets have been transferred to stand-by emergency mode.
 

The Company will announce its Q2 2022 production results on the 21st of July 2022.
 

Since the previous update, Japan joined western countries and imposed additional sanctions against Russia prohibiting exports of industrial goods and technologies. Procurement continues to adapt to the current environment with orderly replacement of sanctioned equipment, consumables and supplies with alternatives from Russia and other countries.

The majority of existing contracts with foreign suppliers continue to be honoured and the Company maintains significant safety stock for critical consumables and spares.
 

The Board and the management continuously evaluate stability, liquidity and solvency of the business in light of multiple external uncertainties. The Company will announce its full-year 2021 and interim 2022 dividend decisions at the time of 1H 2022 results publication on the 22nd of September. Significant challenges and delays in establishing new sales channels and the resulting decline in operating cash flows will be the key factor informing these decisions.

On the 3rd of June the European Union imposed sanctions on the Russian National Settlement Depositary (NSD) effectively blocking the operations between Euroclear and NSD. The Company is advised that this development makes it impossible for those shareholders who keep their shares in NSD (~22% of our share capital) to receive dividends and/or take part in any Company’s corporate actions. Polymetal is consulting with its legal advisors and regulators to confirm the outcomes of these sanctions and measures that could be taken to secure shareholders’ rights.

The Board and the management strongly believe that share buy-backs are presently inappropriate given short-term liquidity challenges, grave business uncertainties, and NSD challenges outlined above.

Following the Executive Order 14066, 14068, or 14071 and subsequent clarification of the scope of the legislation by by Office of Foreign Assets Control, trading in Polymetal’s ADR program (tickers AUCOY/POYYF) has been halted since 15th of June, even though Polymetal’s shares have not been issued by a Russian entity. After consulting with the depositary bank administering the program and our legal advisors regarding the situation the Company confirms that no shareholder rights are affected by this event, including right to receive dividends and voting rights. Shareholders holding ADRs can apply for conversion and receive underlying shares. 
 

The Borad has approved the appointmet of MHA MacIntyre Hudson LLP (an independent member of Baker Tilly International Limited) as a group auditor jointly with AO Business Solutions and Technologies (previously AO Deloitte & Touche CIS) as a component auditor. 

Sanctions announced in the period between 9 March and the date of this press release did not have a direct material impact on the business of the Group. The Group complies rigorously with all relevant legislation and is implementing comprehensive measures to observe all applicable international sanctions. The scope and impact of any new potential sanctions (and any countersanctions) are yet unknown. However, they might further affect key Russian financial institutions as well as mining companies. Polymetal believes that targeted sanctions on the Company remain unlikely, but are not impossible. Contingency planning has been initiated proactively to maintain business continuity.
 

In June, the Russian Government revoked a requirement for exporters to sell 50% of their foregn currency revenue, while transborder capital flow restrictions (including dividends) remain in place.

 

 

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

IO BTL is/was driven by the availability of cheap debt.

The migrants arrived  to full the houses and icnrease demand.

IO BTL is grossly mispriced/wrongly classified. Effectively IO BTL is a non amortising business loan.

There is an unholy symbiotic relation that links IO BTL, TC/UCs, high migration and low rates.

There are *NO* major players in IO BTL - its fuckwits like Fat Fergus.

Ive never met a wealthy person who didnt think IO BTL was insane, in terms of risk and leverage.

 

I agree. My brother-in-law runs a small engineering firm and they buy precision cutting machines for £500k, which they consider a huge and risky outlay, after 5 years they are paid for but will need replacing in the future. Debt is a necessary burden treated with caution and met with healthy cash flows.

The IO BTL is relying entirely on asset appreciate to depreciate the % debt and even then a huge reliance on what can be a weak and unpredictable cash flow. Debts of £1m were seen as small and many with £1/2/3m debt…balmy. Fergus types were just crazy. 

BTL over the past 20 years (with hindsight) was a good way to acquire wealth and if you were bright you could repay debts…due to low interest rates. House price increases a massive icing on the cake. 

However, the typical debt junkie didn’t repay debts but used the extra monies to pay for a lifestyle. To expect the dice to keep rolling in your favour is madness…

A friend I knew inherited a lot of money when I was buying and selling houses and he asked me about investing…I said leveraging and houses were a good gamble to build wealth, but if you have wealth already then it was an unnecessary distraction  

I don’t think houses will plummet in the North, but they will fall and inflation will make the loses even greater. But those with debt (north or south) will be on the wrong side of a leveraged gamble 

[Pip321]

46 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Agree with all that DB, my take on Sunak is he is being dishonest and actually knows the damage he is doing. I can't see how he doesn't understand the consequences of what he is doing. 

 

37 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

I agree.  The question then is, what's the ex-GS bankers ultimate goal ?

I also agree….these people aren’t as stupid as we like to think. Their objectives are selfish though so it’s difficult to read. 

Like HPC I would like to know what the ultimate objective is? Killing the economy sounds self destructive…but it looks like that’s what happening. I am still a little unclear what’s in it for them? 

I bet most of these people would settle for a few billion and to be left alone….so power and control sound a bit too much conspiracy for me…

[M S E Refugee]

Germany triggers ‘alarm stage’ of gas emergency plan https://www.rt.com/news/557665-germany-gas-emergency-alarm/

"The German cries out in pain as he strikes you".

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, 23rdian said:

This will be the next PPI i.e. helicopter money pushed out to stimulate the economy to people too stupid to realise what they are signing up for, by people "that really have their best interests at heart" 

Is all so obviously a massive preempted incestuous circle jerk to anyone with half a brain cell. 

Agree, as quickly as I make money [whether via hard work or astute investment decisions] the government appears to give it away to those too lazy to work or think for themselves, and why do they do this?...As its an easy way to literally steal from me to pass my money onto their friends, whilst pretending they are doing it to help the weak....only one way out of this, to stop paying taxes via not working, purchasing only essential/reduced goods/secondhand goods, and maximizing tax-free breaks via ISA's/pensions/drawdown up to personal tax allowances.....hardwork now doesn't pay, so why 'work/be like a Donkey' for the benefit of other 'Donkey's'?

[DoINeedOne]

10 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

A friend I knew inherited a lot of money when I was buying and selling houses and he asked me about investing…I said leveraging and houses were a good gamble to build wealth, but if you have wealth already then it was an unnecessary distraction  

 

A guy i knew sold his company for a few million and was buying houses which when i was a carpenter we was refurbishing  them for him

He was paying cash for houses, after 3-4 refurbs he said fuck this there's not that much money in it and started another business  

he had the wealth and just saw property as a headache

[Talking Monkey]

20 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

I also agree….these people aren’t as stupid as we like to think. Their objectives are selfish though so it’s difficult to read. 

Like HPC I would like to know what the ultimate objective is? Killing the economy sounds self destructive…but it looks like that’s what happening. I am still a little unclear what’s in it for them? 

I bet most of these people would settle for a few billion and to be left alone….so power and control sound a bit too much conspiracy for me…

Sunak was an MD at goldman, you don't get to be an MD at an IB like that without knowing what you're doing and without developing some serious dark arts skills. 

[spygirl]

25 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

 

The IO BTL is relying entirely on asset appreciate to depreciate the % debt and even then a huge reliance on what can be a weak and unpredictable cash flow. Debts of £1m were seen as small and many with £1/2/3m debt…balmy. Fergus types were just crazy. 

BTL over the past 20 years (with hindsight) was a good way to acquire wealth and if you were bright you could repay debts…due to low interest rates. House price increases a massive icing on the cake. 

However, the typical debt junkie didn’t repay debts but used the extra monies to pay for a lifestyle. To expect the dice to keep rolling in your favour is madness…

 

I *strongly* disagree with that.

I think, when you add them all up, the majority of IO BTL (2002+) are pretty modest houses, in economic disadvantaged areas.

The last ~10 years have seen a lot of ''portfolio' existing Northern places, taking a ~30k hit on each sale.

These are the smart IO BTLers, wholl leave broke but solvent.

At some point, as the IO BTL gets worse, and the BTL SVR gets pushed up, voids happen, the banks will decide to pull the rug.

Your factory mate was ell aware of the risk of having 500k owed to a bank on commercial terms.

Every SME Ive spoken to always worry about bank debt, knowing how fair weather friends the banks are.

 

 

 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Sunak was an MD at goldman, you don't get to be an MD at an IB like that without knowing what you're doing and without developing some serious dark arts skills. 

Was he balls - 

Sunak worked as an analyst for the investment bank Goldman Sachs between 2001 and 2004.^[1][12] He then worked for the hedge fund management firm The Children's Investment Fund Management, becoming a partner in September 2006.^[13] He left in November 2009^[14] in order to join former colleagues at a new hedge fund firm, Theleme Partners, which launched in October 2010 with $700 million under management.^[15][16][17] He was also a director of the investment firm Catamaran Ventures, owned by his father-in-law, Indian businessman N. R. Narayana Murthy.^[12][18]

[spygirl]

38 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

A guy i knew sold his company for a few million and was buying houses which when i was a carpenter we was refurbishing  them for him

He was paying cash for houses, after 3-4 refurbs he said fuck this there's not that much money in it and started another business  

he had the wealth and just saw property as a headache

Outside of cities and young professionals - and I mean professionals and business lets, UK LLing is a people business, where a lot of the people are broke, drunks and dysfunctional.

A lot of IO BTL LL have a overly rosy view as welfare has been flush, doling out rent and benefits.

At some point that will crank down.

 

 

[BWW]

On 23/06/2022 at 10:03, spygirl said:

...

 

Was he balls - 

Sunak worked as an analyst for the investment bank Goldman Sachs between 2001 and 2004.^[1][12] He then worked for the hedge fund management firm The Children's Investment Fund Management, becoming a partner in September 2006.^[13] He left in November 2009^[14] in order

...

Was that a special project from one of the dragons wankers?

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, BWW said:

Was that a special project from one of the dragons wankers?

From ~1985, the City has had a wide funnel and greased exit tube.

It takes in lot of high academic achievers/bullshitters, gives them jobs, then, if they dont make money/have use, lets them go.

3 years (max), 2 years (min), depending when he joined and left, is a try and fail city career.

Analyst is a sit at a desk and make me money,. Or else. Position.

 

[BWW]

On 23/06/2022 at 09:26, DoINeedOne said:

A guy i knew sold his company for a few million and was buying houses which when i was a carpenter we was refurbishing  them for him

He was paying cash for houses, after 3-4 refurbs he said fuck this there's not that much money in it and started another business  

he had the wealth and just saw property as a headache

Refurbs are also used by some groups for money laundering. As I realised that solicitors want a complete trace of monies from a previous house sale through all sorts of savings and current accounts over best part of a decade due to AML when trying to pay cash for a house in the UK, a mate who knows folk with laundry to do told me that renovation projects are used for this but what the solicitors are required to do does nowt.

Example: House purchase for cash from previous sale 800k, 250k refurb paid using cash unchecked allows a sale of 1.1M and 1.1M of completely clean cash, no profit but 250k laudered at zero cost. [50k are costs that had to be paid with bank transfers, agents solicitors SDLT etc.]

That's cheaper and less risky than any other laundering method. If you're competing with that of course there's no profit in it, the laundering folk don't need an actual profit on the buy renovate sell transaction.

[AWW]

7 minutes ago, spygirl said:

From ~1985, the City has had a wide funnel and greased exit tube.

It takes in lot of high academic achievers/bullshitters, gives them jobs, then, if they dont make money/have use, lets them go.

3 years (max), 2 years (min), depending when he joined and left, is a try and fail city career.

Analyst is a sit at a desk and make me money,. Or else. Position.

 

I know plenty of people in the city who have been failing for twenty years. Not at GS, but there are plenty of, shall we say "more forgiving" (crap and nobody decent wants a perm job there) IBs. They don't pay GS salaries, but they do pay.

I'd love to know what type of analyst he was. Most are just spreadsheet jockeys who bring no insight, just numbers.

[Pip321]

10 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I *strongly* disagree with that.

I think, when you add them all up, the majority of IO BTL (2002+) are pretty modest houses, in economic disadvantaged areas.

The last ~10 years have seen a lot of ''portfolio' existing Northern places, taking a ~30k hit on each sale.

These are the smart IO BTLers, wholl leave broke but solvent.

At some point, as the IO BTL gets worse, and the BTL SVR gets pushed up, voids happen, the banks will decide to pull the rug.

Your factory mate was ell aware of the risk of having 500k owed to a bank on commercial terms.

Every SME Ive spoken to always worry about bank debt, knowing how fair weather friends the banks are.

 

Maybe I didn’t explain. The last 20 years was a good way to acquire wealth using leverage on BTL…..Debt repayment (or as a minimum setting aside cash to offset debt)…leaving unencumbered properties paid for by high rents on low mortgage rates.

I mean it was a good opportunity to do so. I do not mean that the majority or even a significant minority have taken that opportunity.

I developed and sold the majority of mine but a couple I still hold have tenants paying rent at 2006 prices because debt payments fell from £350 pcm to £40 pcm.  All that extra money was saved not spent…I know only maybe one or two other LLs who have been frugal and treated the debt with the respect they should have.

I understand your point re disadvantaged areas….I do know someone who bought in Stoke and owns 8 crappy houses worth less than he paid. However he is one of those frugal examples and they were yielding 20% when he bought. Not my model but at least he had the sense to pay off his debts (like the engineering machine). So he owns the depreciating asset but it’s now paid for by someone else  

I am not advocating. Just saying the was an opportunity, even those who took it wasted in on a lifestyle….and that opportunity has gone. 

[Democorruptcy]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The frozen allowances are the killer i think.Only hope for the UK is gilt sales failing to pull these loons in.BOE cant print thats for certain,unless they increased rates sharply as well.

Telling workers to fuck off,telling bennies and retired have a load more money.Its incredible really,is it even real?

They are paying yields on Gilts 2%+ to institutional investors, that are much higher than the 1.25% base rate. While paying NS&I savers rates well below the base rate on such as Income Bonds 0.5%, Cash ISA 0.35%, etc. If only it was their own money instead of just ours to waste! Then they could save money by attracting more funding by paying 1.25 on NS&I savings and not issue as many more expensive Gilts. Added bonus being NS&I savers would at least have more income to spend, even though their real rate is still -8%!

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

 

I also agree….these people aren’t as stupid as we like to think. Their objectives are selfish though so it’s difficult to read. 

Like HPC I would like to know what the ultimate objective is? Killing the economy sounds self destructive…but it looks like that’s what happening. I am still a little unclear what’s in it for them? 

I bet most of these people would settle for a few billion and to be left alone….so power and control sound a bit too much conspiracy for me…

I have a friend who circulates in the world of the 1%.  He's a normal down to earth bloke, not monied or anything but a bit of an intellectual.

What he seems is vested interest, people out of touch with most of the world, selfishness, outright stupidity and sociopaths.

He says there is no conspiracy, just cunts everywhere.

[Barnsey]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Until recession and PAYE drops.Sunak was on today and said putting up pensions and bennies wasnt inflationary because it doesnt affect input costs and thats the difference with wages,so wage restraint is where action is needed.

It was incredible to hear this schoolboy error.Its so wrong on macro terms where do you start?.He thinks the coppers in my close getting £3k increases isnt inflationary?.We are in a commodity and consumption inflation,so extra consumption takes directly off someone else.Its insane.He is the dumbest resident of no 11 alongside Brown,or he is lieing.Or both.

These are facts.In every street in the UK those working are going to get less than those not working at every level.From the single mother with one kid,to retired civil servants.Every single private sector worker will range from worse off,to badly worse off.Anyone with a fixed annuity will be slaughtered (horrible,but why i like insurers).

Osborne did some good work on welfare,at least a start,Sunak has wiped it out and more.UK is fucked with these in charge.Collapse of the private sector isnt out of the question the policy errors are so big.Outside of that higher inflation for longer.

What happened to Sunaks high wage dream for the UK? The messaging from Gov is so batshit crazy you've got Farage and Mick Lynch on the same level saying work SHOULD pay. Dont give workers a decent payrise but subsidise them with in work benefits? Then you've got the daily mail brainwashing non unionised workers, "why should they be on strike when we're all suffering" FFS. The years ahead should all be about making work pay and wages to race ahead of benefits, yet we're seeing the complete opposite. Pretty f***ing obvious that demand amongst working population is being decimated, today they're saying working people are even putting off having kids due to squeezed finances, bad bad situation. 

Gov can vilify RMT all they want, and believe that they can't give rail workers a BELOW inflation payrise of 7% because it'll pave the way for everyone else, but I'm afraid the damage is already done. Can't wait for Question Time tonight.

[HousePriceMania]

Just now, Barnsey said:

What happened to Sunaks high wage dream for the UK?

He sald people the High wage dream...he failed to tell people it comes with the high price of bread nightmare.

[Barnsey]

Just now, HousePriceMania said:

He sald people the High wage dream...he failed to tell people it comes with the high price of bread nightmare.

Problem is the bread is going up so much faster than the salaries to pay for it, unless you're on bennies.

[M S E Refugee]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Gov can vilify RMT all they want, and believe that they can't give rail workers a BELOW inflation payrise of 7% because it'll pave the way for everyone else, but I'm afraid the damage is already done. Can't wait for Question Time tonight.

Most of the Vaccinated retards I work with think it's unreasonable to expect a payrise that matches inflation.