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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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leonardratso

sounds like aquaman/freeman.

Fuck them all i say, put some cash aside, i know its deflating but you still need it and nothing speaks like cash, gamble the rest, make it small enough to not matter, thats what im doing, yes i miss out on the big rises but i will probably miss out on the BK as well so not all bad. I really cant piss away literally years worth of labour on a sure thing, it never is a sure thing.

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Talking Monkey
31 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

BB writes a lot of sense, you've the wife and kids. 

As long as you're not trading on margin and are investing then all good. If you've got a wide spread of miners it should come good maybe not in the exact time frame you'd have hoped. The two parts of our thesis that I simply don't worry about are the oilies and the miners. It's all going to work out fine eventually across all the various strands of the thesis we discuss here. 

BB's other comment on catastrophe burning away the unimportant and leaving you wiser and a better man is spot on. 

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leonardratso

PS. about the work performance, i disengaged months ago, im doing the office space guy thing, hahaha, literally i spend all day watching crap on youtube or wandering around going to the shop or just even going for a walk, i ignore all meetings and just palm people off constantly, the pile of work that needs doing and im ignoring is growing bigger by the day, teams is constantly set to offline, messages might get an answer tomorrow but it will be a literal 'fuck off im busy' but not in so few words, its great. I will all be revealed and come crashing down at some point but to be honest im beyond caring, getting some shit about diversity training now --> bin.

 

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24 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right

 

What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

The bit in bold is my view on miners lately seeing the same in alot of accounts that i follow on twitter too in the mining space its been a weird few years and i don't think any of us know if we're coming or going (don't think it's just you)

I sure i'm the last person you want to talk too but my DM's are open if you just want a chat, as im sure alot others will be too

 

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29 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

You will come good on your holdings,silver will be one of the three best performing assets this cycle,just a matter of when,junior miners can treble in weeks once things move.Your not like the sheep walking around.You will own a house,you will set your kids on their way.Get a barbell,im glad i got one again thanks to the lads on here.Its a great way to empty your mind with the added bonus of being able to rip limbs of any clowns who go near your family.

 

 

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Just now, DurhamBorn said:

You will come good on your holdings,silver will be one of the three best performing assets this cycle,just a matter of when,junior miners can treble in weeks once things move.Your not like the sheep walking around.You will own a house,you will set your kids on their way.Get a barbell,im glad i got one again thanks to the lads on here.Its a great way to empty your mind with the added bonus of being able to rip limbs of any clowns who go near your family.

 

 

Get one of these bad boys too

IMG_2934.thumb.JPG.87734b2958271ff8524c850179344328.JPG

 

Your misses will love hanging washing on it 

 

 

 

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Animal Spirits

‘Era of cheap Chinese manufacturing over,’ says Nat Rothschild

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2022%2F06%2F23%2Fera-chinese-manufacturing-says-nat-rothschild%2F

So we've got Rothschilds reading the thread now? I reckon Chief Macrostrategist at Yellow Label Wealth Management Ltd @DurhamBorn is due a fee or two.

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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

PS. about the work performance, i disengaged months ago, im doing the office space guy thing, hahaha, literally i spend all day watching crap on youtube or wandering around going to the shop or just even going for a walk, i ignore all meetings and just palm people off constantly, the pile of work that needs doing and im ignoring is growing bigger by the day, teams is constantly set to offline, messages might get an answer tomorrow but it will be a literal 'fuck off im busy' but not in so few words, its great. I will all be revealed and come crashing down at some point but to be honest im beyond caring, getting some shit about diversity training now --> bin.

 

Last diversity training i got,two weeks later the lass who gave it was flashing her dish at me on a stock take and she knew it,just shows how ridiculous it all is.Most places iv worked iv made sure i was first on the list for redundancy thanks to my attendance,redundancy is lovely.

1 minute ago, DoINeedOne said:

Get one of these bad boys too

IMG_2934.thumb.JPG.87734b2958271ff8524c850179344328.JPG

 

Your misses will love hanging washing on it 

 

 

 

I could store a lot of corned beef on the top of that as well.

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Chewing Grass
2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

PS. about the work performance, i disengaged months ago, im doing the office space guy thing, hahaha, literally i spend all day watching crap on youtube or wandering around going to the shop or just even going for a walk, i ignore all meetings and just palm people off constantly, the pile of work that needs doing and im ignoring is growing bigger by the day, teams is constantly set to offline, messages might get an answer tomorrow but it will be a literal 'fuck off im busy' but not in so few words, its great. I will all be revealed and come crashing down at some point but to be honest im beyond caring, getting some shit about diversity training now --> bin.

 

My place is so Woke USA its untrue, their current bleeding heart gripe is despite all 'the diversity' they have thrown at the problem they only have 16.5% female engineers.

The bit I'm in is like 5%. So they have some online thing to harangue us with this afternoon which gets ignored.

The thing is, all the really good engineers who do engineering rather than the more lucrative 'management' are Neurologically Diverse Spassers on the Autism Spectrum who have less than 10% empathy with touchy feely stuff.

The thing is these Spassers are typically Male as females are generally not afflicted with an interest or need to do 'engineering'.

Here is the fucking science you woke retards.

Results: Fifty-four studies were analyzed, with 13,784,284 participants, of whom 53,712 had ASD (43,972 boys and 9,740 girls).

The results match.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28545751/

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Democorruptcy
42 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

Don't beat yourself up, you will be OK when Mr Pivot comes to town.

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ThoughtCriminal

Keynes.

 

He might have enjoyed bumming young waiters, but he wasn't wrong.

 

About inflation I mean. Not bumming young waiters.

IMG_20220623_185235.jpg

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leonardratso
17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Last diversity training i got,two weeks later the lass who gave it was flashing her dish at me on a stock take and she knew it,just shows how ridiculous it all is.Most places iv worked iv made sure i was first on the list for redundancy thanks to my attendance,redundancy is lovely.

im hoping they step up with that for me, id take their arm off at the shoulder.

strangely i complained about an internal advert i saw offering a job similar to mine but on a lot more money, this was back in january, i forgot about it when they just ignored me but i wasnt happy about them offering so much more after id been doing it for 15 years, anyway they suddenly came back this month and offered me an 8% rise cos lots of people were just hoying the towel in and they must have thought id do the same, and no one wants to do what i do cos its really tedious and technical and fairly legacy, they all want to be managers or diversity knobbers. Meanwhile cost of living awards have been about 1.5% across the board, i should really complain about not getting that as well, but i cant be arsed, hmm 8% or 1.5% the decision is yours, phone a friend or fuck a dog - im torn...  hehehehe.

PS. whats a dish?  is it like a mott?

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38 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't.

Hang on in there, you will make it! Fed will be easing, or tightening less, again before long. The stakes are as high as they can get for 'West vs East', so there is maximum pain now for everyone, but they will have to ease off... then the PM stocks will 'rubber band' back in the opposite direction.

These idiots are like the novice pilot of a plane that has stalled, they think they can just pull back on the stick (print dollars wastefully) to get altitude but the plane just stalls again, lower. They will need to figure out to point the nose down and gain some actual velocity, until then all that wasteful money supply is going into the PMs at some point, and any other assets of real world value.

Most of my PM miners are badly in the red now. I ignore them. I've allocated all I wanted to. Nobody has a crystal ball. I will just sit on them and wait.

(The copper/iron/base metal etc miners on the other hand. Coming back into range and looking interesting again perhaps...)

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22 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Get one of these bad boys too

IMG_2934.thumb.JPG.87734b2958271ff8524c850179344328.JPG

 

Your misses will love hanging washing on it 

 

 

 

That's a funny looking curtain rail,  is it from IKEA?

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46 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

Assuming you are on the goldies, then this is what capitulation feels like and often precedes a big move up.

Market sentiment for the gold/silver miners is rock bottom. This should be where it gets interesting.

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leonardratso
24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Keynes.

 

He might have enjoyed bumming young waiters, but he wasn't wrong.

 

About inflation I mean. Not bumming young waiters.

IMG_20220623_185235.jpg

who you talking about? keynes or quentin crisp? (or stuey).

edit .... durr just saw the keynes at the top there.

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ThoughtCriminal
11 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

who you talking about? keynes or quentin crisp? (or stuey).

edit .... durr just saw the keynes at the top there.

I don't think Crisp did much bumming, seemed more like a bumee.

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The whole market right now reminds me of being in the tropics before the rains break. When it gets hotter and stickier and it feels like you're not going to be able to move or breath and then with a gust of wind it changes. That's where we are. Everyone knows this is fucked, it's just a case of someone pulling the trigger. 

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Good luck. I just don't know if I can do it anymore. I'm , so tired right now... I've been making decisions that make sense in a world that doesn't. Nothing seems right. I could have joined the lunacy and be well in the green.

Yesterday it suddenly occured to me that there's a very real possibility that none of the financial things I wanted for me and my kids will happend for me. I will never own a house anywhere where I'd like to live. Neither will my kids. They won't leave the uni debt free. Both me and my wife are highly skilled professionals and we'll have nothing but ourselves because world has been turned into a casino.

My nest egg is disappearing in front of me. 4% one day, 2% on the next, 2.5% the day after that... I don't feel like I've done anything wrong yet the results are disastrous. Once it runs out then that's it. There's no plan B, no hidden stash or surprise inheritance, the dream dies and I probably die with it. The alternative is to park money in cash and see it trickle away with inflation, very likely timed to perfection with  the drunk party resuming its course. I feel trapped.

I've lost all motivation to try. My performance at work in the last few weeks has been laughable. There's no way to change things, no escape.

March 2020 was violent but I remained optimistic. What's going on right now is making me want to cry and eat a gun whenever I start thinking about it. I'm probably working my way to early cancer or heart attack 10 years from now, but there's nothing to do, no way to change course.

Fuck it.

I pretty much gave up active investing after Polymetal went South.

It wasn't Poly going south that was the problem. It was my reaction to it. I just kept throwing money at it like some great big fucking mong. Sometimes you've got to take a step back and look at yourself, realise it's not working and think about maybe walking a different path.

I've transferred most of my holdings into a handful of investment trusts and set myself percentage holdings for them, and a percentage cash holding. I go weeks now without looking at the ISA or the SIPP, and I'll just rebalance at set points when things get out of whack. I'm still invested I the sectors I wanted to be in, and yeah I've taken a hit with the recent falls, but I've disengaged from it emotionally, and I'm sleeping like a baby.

I'm still holding all those Poly shares though.

:D

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1 hour ago, Animal Spirits said:

‘Era of cheap Chinese manufacturing over,’ says Nat Rothschild

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fbusiness%2F2022%2F06%2F23%2Fera-chinese-manufacturing-says-nat-rothschild%2F

So we've got Rothschilds reading the thread now? I reckon Chief Macrostrategist at Yellow Label Wealth Management Ltd @DurhamBorn is due a fee or two.

It ended in 2015.

Nats pretty slow.

 

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I echo SP, there. Do not confuse serving emergency service workers, with retired public sector civil service workers and officers. They won’t be getting any pay rises in line with inflation (mine was frozen last year), so it’s a hard straight 11% inflation to the chin when your at the top of pay scale banding after so many years.

The serving emergency service workers then have the delight of their contributions going up to pay for all the retirees, with their own goalposts being moved much further away so that they never actually receive theirs. So not much better off than everyone else paying for it.

@sancho panza Well I’m unsure whether that’s any better or worse SP.

Knowing that the whole western global leadership is unfit for office and is setting the economy on course for kamikaze through sheer ineptitude and incompetence? Scary, then God help us. We may as well start learning Russian and Mandarin now.

Or indeed performing to a necessary set of milestones to address a failing economic monetary system whilst arriving at a perceived solution, (CBDCs). People revolt, revolution, civil war.

 

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

@sancho panzayour comments on relative intelligence are interesting and I largely agree, but there are a couple of other categories I think. There are a LOT of dumb people who think they are brilliant, because they are too thick to self reflect. They might be good at schmoozing though and can be incredibly dangerous. It's always worth remembering that 50% of the population have a 2 digit IQ, by definition. Explains almost everything.

 

 

At the other end are the really, really intelligent Feynman type people who actually doubt themselves, think they are imposters, and so are smart enough to say "I don't know". Listen to those ones.

Excellent point CP.I've seena lot of blaggers in politics because they get caught out in the real world.

Mrs P gets sent on some expensive management lectures.One covered  german General Kurt von hammerstein(real name I shit ye not)He divided his officers into four catergoies thus and looking at my life,he isn't far wrong.People like Rishi couldn't cut it at GS but clearly has a brain between his ears.Clearly works really hard.Clever and industrious.

https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00012327

Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord 1878–1943
German general 

  1. I divide my officers into four classes as follows: the clever, the industrious, the lazy, and the stupid. Each officer always possesses two of these qualities. Those who are clever and industrious I appoint to the General Staff. Use can under certain circumstances be made of those who are stupid and lazy. The man who is clever and lazy qualifies for the highest leadership posts. He has the requisite and the mental clarity for difficult decisions. But whoever is stupid and industrious must be got rid of, for he is too dangerous.
2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Eye watering stuff.

'Italy owns 64% of MPS after a 2017 rescue that cost taxpayers 5.4 billion euros - a figure equivalent to nearly eight times the lender's current market value. Rome is now set to pump in another 1.6 billion euros based on the size of its stake.'

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1 hour ago, Chewing Grass said:

My place is so Woke USA its untrue, their current bleeding heart gripe is despite all 'the diversity' they have thrown at the problem they only have 16.5% female engineers.

The bit I'm in is like 5%. So they have some online thing to harangue us with this afternoon which gets ignored.

The thing is, all the really good engineers who do engineering rather than the more lucrative 'management' are Neurologically Diverse Spassers on the Autism Spectrum who have less than 10% empathy with touchy feely stuff.

The thing is these Spassers are typically Male as females are generally not afflicted with an interest or need to do 'engineering'.

Here is the fucking science you woke retards.

Results: Fifty-four studies were analyzed, with 13,784,284 participants, of whom 53,712 had ASD (43,972 boys and 9,740 girls).

The results match.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28545751/

 

Sorted -

https://www.thebrightonbirdcage.co.uk/

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