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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)


spunko

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Democorruptcy
38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Grey joggers with dirty knees.Popped in Spoons yesterday and two young bennie families the two lads had shorts and black socks half way up to their knees.Not much different to Primark t shirts.Im ashamed of you all.

Ashamed of who and why? If it's for buying Primark T-Shirts nobody has said they bought any!

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Yadda yadda yadda
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Grey joggers with dirty knees.Popped in Spoons yesterday and two young bennie families the two lads had shorts and black socks half way up to their knees.Not much different to Primark t shirts.Im ashamed of you all.

I scrolled down to similar items. This is not how to dress. He would get blown over in a gale with those legs too. Remember that Primark cares.

 

Screenshot_20220624-183842.png

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Grey joggers with dirty knees.Popped in Spoons yesterday and two young bennie families the two lads had shorts and black socks half way up to their knees.Not much different to Primark t shirts.Im ashamed of you all.

TBH. I hold my hand up  

My wardrobe consists mainly of £2 Primark t-shirts. 

100% cotton, may shrink somewhat (no problem with XL), and a Im a shameless opportunist of the disinflation cycle that’s given me the ability to buy these said items for next to nothing.

Another inflation marker for me. I fully expect transportation from Bangladesh will render these t-shirts to double or triple in a year or so time.

It’s good to keep an eye on loss leaders that are already disappearing. 20p value spaghetti. Macdonalds £1.99 vouchers can’t be used in various branches and KFC withdrawing their £1.99 ‘streetwise’ menu.

All inflationary markers that will effect the bennie brigade.

 

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46 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I scrolled down to similar items. This is not how to dress. He would get blown over in a gale with those legs too. Remember that Primark cares.

 

Screenshot_20220624-183842.png

No self-respecting man would wear that. 

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Democorruptcy
49 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I scrolled down to similar items. This is not how to dress. He would get blown over in a gale with those legs too. Remember that Primark cares.

 

Screenshot_20220624-183842.png

When I looked at the T-shirt availability after @Funn3r's post the one you posted caught my eye. I nearly posted it. It didn't exactly sell their stuff to me!

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On 24/06/2022 at 17:09, DurhamBorn said:

Here is an example of the shoplifters (or more likely a fence)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/175328973193?hash=item28d26bd189:g:pKMAAOSwIFxiPFCy

£17,delivered,these are £49 in the shops (and superb i must add).I got two of these this week from different sellers for £14.

Or this (another superb product usually around £30)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/363793076249?hash=item54b3c1d019:g:3KsAAOSwkoxiTvFx

Im buying up 3 to 5 years worth of everything i can like this without use by dates.

Im sure before long shops will remove everything like this off the shelves.

18 QUID ??!? Does it have some use other than replacing a bar of imperial leather [now inflated to 50p was 33p] and water?

Or are you planning to resell later [surely folk who currently put 18 quid stuff on their faces will be struggling to find money for their baked beans never mind the soap replacement].

Or is it some sort of fanny [cis or otherwise] magnet.

Running out of options. Really, tell me.

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Castlevania
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here is an example of the shoplifters (or more likely a fence)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/175328973193?hash=item28d26bd189:g:pKMAAOSwIFxiPFCy

£17,delivered,these are £49 in the shops (and superb i must add).I got two of these this week from different sellers for £14.

Or this (another superb product usually around £30)

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/363793076249?hash=item54b3c1d019:g:3KsAAOSwkoxiTvFx

Im buying up 3 to 5 years worth of everything i can like this without use by dates.

Im sure before long shops will remove everything like this off the shelves.

Probably fake. The mark up on that type of thing is eye watering.

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leonardratso

ive still got my asda sid james t shirt someone got me years ago, oddly enough i saw some guy in a porno wearing the same t shirt a few months after i got it. A cheap sleazy uk porno, but i watched it anyway cos the the guy had my t shirt on.

 

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ThoughtCriminal
3 hours ago, JMD said:

Didn't Keynes famously only spend half hour a day stock picking, whilst still in bed and by only using the financial sections of the daily newspapers... No day trading or TA for him - different times I suppose! Even so he still amassed a £500,000 fortune (£30M equivalent today) by the time of his death in 1946, despite being wiped out in the 1929 crash.

Yup, he was the definitive minimalist stock picker by all accounts.

 

And a bloody good one at that.

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Just watched this chap (as recommended from here I think). Although nothing too new thought it was good. Especially stuff on bear markets.

 

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I’m like these videos. They helped me explain yield curve inversion and energy usage to people who wouldn’t normally pay attention to any of this shit.

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reformed nice guy

For a bit of good news BP are still buying about £36 million of their own shares daily, Shell about £97m, Totale about €200 to 250m once or twice each week

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Meet Zoltan, the sellside Jules Verne

FTAV sits down with Credit Suisse’s money savant and man-of-the-moment, Zoltan Pozsar

https://www.ft.com/content/aab1bae8-b8f5-4935-9c63-fe7954d551ed



His view is that the informal Bretton Wood II system — loosely defined as the modern era of reserve accumulation in the east being funnelled into western borrowing and consumption — has now run its course.

The sanctioning of Russia highlighted how countries cannot necessarily always rely on access to these reserves, which means the “peaceful symbiosis” has been shattered, Pozsar argues. If you focus on finance, every decade you have to focus on a completely new corner of the system to understand the risks and where things can get gummed up. Zoltan Pozsar

His view is that the result will be a third Bretton Woods era, mostly defined by three main pillars: The Chinese renminbi is going to play a far larger, international role; gold is going to play a far bigger role in foreign currency reserves; and countries are going to stockpile reserves in essential natural resources in addition to financial ones.

“People are learning that you can have all the money in the world, but if you can’t buy shit with it, it’s a problem. So you might as well stock up on stuff,” Pozsar says. (For FTAV readers keener for a deeper view, Credit Suisse has published one of his signature pieces, to which Alex Turnbull has a good riposte.)

 

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/news-and-expertise/we-are-witnessing-the-birth-of-a-new-world-monetary-order-202203.html

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11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Meet Zoltan, the sellside Jules Verne

FTAV sits down with Credit Suisse’s money savant and man-of-the-moment, Zoltan Pozsar

https://www.ft.com/content/aab1bae8-b8f5-4935-9c63-fe7954d551ed



His view is that the informal Bretton Wood II system — loosely defined as the modern era of reserve accumulation in the east being funnelled into western borrowing and consumption — has now run its course.

The sanctioning of Russia highlighted how countries cannot necessarily always rely on access to these reserves, which means the “peaceful symbiosis” has been shattered, Pozsar argues. If you focus on finance, every decade you have to focus on a completely new corner of the system to understand the risks and where things can get gummed up. Zoltan Pozsar

His view is that the result will be a third Bretton Woods era, mostly defined by three main pillars: The Chinese renminbi is going to play a far larger, international role; gold is going to play a far bigger role in foreign currency reserves; and countries are going to stockpile reserves in essential natural resources in addition to financial ones.

“People are learning that you can have all the money in the world, but if you can’t buy shit with it, it’s a problem. So you might as well stock up on stuff,” Pozsar says. (For FTAV readers keener for a deeper view, Credit Suisse has published one of his signature pieces, to which Alex Turnbull has a good riposte.)

 

https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us-news/en/articles/news-and-expertise/we-are-witnessing-the-birth-of-a-new-world-monetary-order-202203.html


Yep, October is my mark out prediction for when it all turns. 

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Probably fake. The mark up on that type of thing is eye watering.

Shoplifters,you can tell the ones with the stock they sell,nearly always stuff from Boots etc.Iv a friend who was area manager for Boots,their losses are huge,they just walk in,fill bag and walk out.Lots of staff in on it as well.

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Uncle Buck Rogers
3 hours ago, Errol said:

No self-respecting man would wear that. 

Not with those sandels. Proper brown leather ones however.

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Uncle Buck Rogers
2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

ive still got my asda sid james t shirt someone got me years ago, oddly enough i saw some guy in a porno wearing the same t shirt a few months after i got it. A cheap sleazy uk porno, but i watched it anyway cos the the guy had my t shirt on.

 

Did he wash it before returning it to you?

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13 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Not the point you were making I know…but what the fuck. This guy is suing the NHS. Because he didn’t realise the emotional distress having his meat and 2 veg removed would have. Do you have to tell people to lift the lid before pissing into a toilet. 2 years consultation.! 

1940’s and the NHS is introduced. Imagine how that felt as a truly working class family learn that their kids won’t die from pneumonia any more, or a broken leg no longer means being lame, a tooth extraction can be carried out without using a neighbours hammer, maybe treat serious virus etc…..and whilst nothing it’s free, it’s for everyone. What a wonderful wonderful thing to give everyday families. 

80 years on we have gender reassignment on the NHS….

I am all for a truly liberal world, I am happy to call someone a ‘she’ a ‘he’ and happy for all sorts of sexuality to be acknowledged. I even sometimes stop myself from laughing at fatties in electric scooters in Asda.  But it is not for the NHS to pay for stomach stapling, gender reassignments etc.

This should be a test case for the NHS to absolutely never ever do this operation for anyone again. 

How many cancer patients are on the waiting list because of these operations and when he gets his free money compensation how many cancer patients will miss treatment. Maybe a few kids will die of cancer so this claimant is sorted….oh well, for the greater good.😞

Might buy some more Rio shares later, and ask the NHS to compensate me if the drop. 
 

Ps….just read the comments, realised I have been ‘double woked’. DM uses this to push me further right.😉

Great story though, definitely shouldn’t be on the NHS.…😂 

NHS compensation claim payouts are running at over £2Bn/year which is actually over 1% of the total NHS budget. I wonder if private medicine pays over 1% of its revenue on compensation cases - I know there is not a direct equivalence between these two health providers, but still these type of organisational failures just cause me to think the NHS is slowly grinding to a halt.          

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7 hours ago, Pip321 said:

I am glad one of us bought…they have jumped up again. My very short term trades have always been crap…longer term I tend to do ok. 

I am waiting for just over 4800p for Rio, and then my average will be 5000p a share. Happy to miss out and just have one ladder for now.

Rio are really volatile as the markets move, they could be 6200p next week or 4500p. But hoping for maybe an extra divi in August which will boost the price.   

Yep, I did mean a half ladder i.e. if I planned to buy 200 shares (I buy even numbers of shares not even cash amounts) then instead I might have bought 100 shares. 

Ps...just reviewed your definition of ladder....so in my case I would buy 3 or 4 ladders (eg 200 shares on each ladder). That is laddering.  So in this example I meant I was planning to add another ladder of say 200 shares at 4800p but was considering to add an extra 'mini ladder' eg 100 shares at 4850p. 

In any event I did fack all. 

My strategy in these nervous times in more akin to a trader and to buy at a price I like and if they do go in a rally then sell and buy another share I like which is out of favour. Effectively using volatility. But only buying things I am happy to hold for a long long time (ie micro investing but both eyes on the macro).

Only trying to beat cash and collect some divi’s means it’s an easier strategy

Rio doesn’t really fall into everyone’s strategy on this thread….I like the dividend and it’s worldwide. Some miners are too country specific for my liking and as I found with Poly…things can change quickly. 

 

OK matey, let's take this to the mat!  I own RIO.  Have for a while and don't see that changing yet.  It's part of our diverse core (income) portfolio so not a trade.  That means I never sell out of it but do reduce my position (usually to about a third) if the technicals look poor.  That's what I've recently done which means I now need to put the extra time in to catch the turn.  That's the deal I made with Mr Market.  It pees me off because I've got better things to do but that's the game I'm given.  But because Mr Market's on a bit of a roar, I'm also adding a FUBAR stop limit for the lot.  I listen to the podcasts and I don't give a feck but they do open my mind to the possibility this could run harder.  That's all they can do, even the very best ones (yes, we know who).

I don't get 4800p or any other price.  I don't give a feck.  I buy on the basis of the chart and because I've got a busy life outside of all this stuff, that means the monthly chart.  You talk prices but you don't say why.  Why 4800p?  I'm not dissing you, I trust you've got a reason (I could see some) and that's what I want to know.  That's the value to me.  I say don't throw out numbers without an explanation.

I look at the chart and it'll tell me when to do something.  So here's that "meme" again (do y'all get it now!)...

    YSZwaWQ9QXBp

What I see is this:

Capture.thumb.JPG.ab92c938aa793a6144964d51b39a890f.JPG

Yep, that's the sort of thing it takes just for the techs.  Sure, choose your data of choice but at least have something.  So we were on a bounce but it's given way (which is unusual on the monthly so spider senses about the overall market at the ready).  That's further supported by the weekly action, which usually doesn't agree (hmm).  So I'll sit it out until the turn and the price at which it does will be the least interesting thing about it.  Sure, it may go up 10% tomorrow.  I simply don't give a feck 'cause that's just noise in my scheme of things.

As for the rest, let's not fool ourselves.  Everything is a trade.  Only the duration varies. 

Again, I'm not dissing you.  I wouldn't fecking read your stuff if it was BS!  I want to know more.  To challenge myself and me ways.  That's how I might manage to stay ahead.  TBH, more an excuse to show my frillies to hopefully get some to appreciate what's required if you want to ride.

Some naive will probably ask what techs I'm using.  Don't.  No shortcuts.  That's a suit you'll have to invest in to tailor and wear.  Again, if you ain't prepared to grunt, stay the feck away.  I could name them.  Worthless, as it's how they're used.  How are they used?  Worthless as we all come at this from a different angle.  So what are you left with in the end?  A pub chat, no more.

........But then, every now and then, someone says something as an aside and it lands hard and you go "oh feckidity feck"!

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12 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

To my mind you're drifting left and could do with a quick shove to the right :D

Per-person-tailoring of pronouns? No chance, they're lucky if I remember their names. If it's one eccentric making a memorable request that's one thing, but the wokeists want us to remember multiple items per person (name, noun/pronoun, possessive pronoun).

The potential values are not limited to two genders either, e.g. zir, them etc.

Frankly it's not scalable and I (me, mine) will not do it.

 

Agreed. Not strictly what you were saying... but I always thought 'Sargon of Akkad' very memorable, and tbh a bloody epic pseudonym!!

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Am I still allowed to post if I don't ride a Hardly Movingson? :D

(I quite often leave the road completely with no idea where I am or how I got there, and like to have a laugh about falling off)

image.thumb.jpeg.ca8aa741faa992870ca890a9aad6dc03.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Am I still allowed to post if I don't ride a Hardly Movingson? :D

(I quite often leave the road completely with no idea where I am or how I got there, and like to have a laugh about falling off)

image.thumb.jpeg.ca8aa741faa992870ca890a9aad6dc03.jpeg

NCZwaWQ9QXBp

My latest is a trail bike.

Harley's OK 'cause Harley knows how deep love can go.

 

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