Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Harley]

20 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Few German industrials starting to look good value.

BASF

BAYER

Continental 

We're going to need more than just a price chart but I take the point as it's something I noticed.  Amazing what hand time deals you.  I've been in and out of BASF but never had an 8%+ yield as currently.  The monthly is oversold but has yet to turn which may take a while as the weekly is currently heading there.  Japan seems to be a step ahead despite the "macro" noise.  The one macro that I do entertain though is the impact of energy/raw material supplies on these companies.  I was surprised that my Polish metals producer was still on the up given their energy usage.  But I was happy to follow the chart and take the gains!

[biki]

Via ZH and oilprice.com: Dallas Fed Energy Survey .
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2022/2202.aspx#tab-comments

Via MacroVoices:

 

My view: Democratic party in the US prefers recession (temporarily losing mid-elections) than to allow oil companies making money (and buying votes for Republicans in foreseeable future).

[JMD]

5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Yup, he was the definitive minimalist stock picker by all accounts.

Funny

And a bloody good one at that.

For sure. Though I bet being so near the wheels of government and the treasury over many years was more than a little useful. I wonder however how much Von Mises made during the aftermath of the crash. Not strictly competitiopn a ax

[Lightscribe]

5 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Few German industrials starting to look good value.

BASF

BAYER

Continental 

I have my eye on those too. I’m waiting for this winter to pass yet, it should be a bloodbath for German stocks when 30%+ ppi and no gas floods out to the consumer end.

[Errol]

7 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Few German industrials starting to look good value.

BASF

BAYER

Continental 

I would advise waiting until after German industry collapses due to gas shortages.

[stoobs]

13 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Weird I just get a sea of red, OK only checked the 3.50 ones, like this

Have you just published triangulation coordinates to your house on a thread frequented exclusively by self-confessed odd-bods and nut-jobs?

[tank]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

NHS compensation claim payouts are running at over £2Bn/year which is actually over 1% of the total NHS budget. I wonder if private medicine pays over 1% of its revenue on compensation cases.       

If health care related litigation in the US is anything to go by, the answer is a firm yes. 

[Majorpain]

17 minutes ago, Errol said:

I would advise waiting until after German industry collapses due to gas shortages.

I'm quite surprised they haven't dropped more already, Russians are obviously going to turn the screws on EU with gas like they did to them with sanctions, should be some mega bargains floating around this winter.

I need to make a watchlist of shares, BASF is deffo one.

[Red Debt Redemption]

23 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I take you point but I managed to get out of Gazprom and Poly with 90% of what I'd invested as I could see as soon as Russia went into Ukraine that was not normal and I'd rather be safe than sorry yet loads on here held on due to not wanting to miss the 'mad gainz' and not accepting the new reality. We even had people complaining they couldn't buy Russian related shares as Kiev was under siege which had at that point dropped 90% or more which to any rational person is gambling. You can blame the "Government's insane response" for your own losses if you want but deep down surely you know you had as much time as anyone else to get out of those shares without such a hefty loss?

Investing to me seems no different to life in general in that you have to be alert and ready to react to whatever comes your way, you alone are responsible for the decisions you make and the emotions you let rule your actions as anything external is outside your control

Still buying.

You already know.. Who is the king of Russian pm miner.

Big pog superstar Riding in a Lada car They know me both close and far Make way for polymetal tsar Big pog superstar Likes markets as black as tar They know me both close and far Only man who bought Winrar.

[ThoughtCriminal]

11 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

“People are learning that you can have all the money in the world, but if you can’t buy shit with it, it’s a problem. So you might as well stock up on stuff,” Pozsar says. 

We should all print that off and stick it on the fridge to remind us of where we are and where we're going.

 

It dovetails perfectly with that gromen interview, which is absolutely devastating: they either believe their own rhetoric, in which case they're going to blow everything to smithereens, or they're lying and inflation is going to infinity and beyond.

 

Almost every "expert" thinks they can just copy the Volcker playbook, but as gromen points out, the circumstances aren't even remotely comparable. It simply is not going to happen.

 

To kibuc and anyone feeling similarly despondent I'd say this: if this thread means anything it serves to remind us that we're moving back from the dreamlike "virtual economy" as Peter Thiel calls it, back to the economy of matter. Of real "stuff".

 

Nobody is going to give a fuck about pieces of paper, fit only for wiping your arse with, that's over. If you hold shares in miners, fertiliser, uranium etc etc then you're ahead of 99.99% of the population for the decades ahead.

 

if I can paraphrase DB, we're here for the destination, not the journey.

[Don Coglione]

9 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

if I can paraphrase DB, we're here for the destination, not the journey.

@Harley won't like that!

[Pip321]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

OK matey, let's take this to the mat!  I own RIO.  Have for a while and don't see that changing yet.  It's part of our diverse core (income) portfolio so not a trade.  That means I never sell out of it but do reduce my position (usually to about a third) if the technicals look poor.  That's what I've recently done which means I now need to put the extra time in to catch the turn.  That's the deal I made with Mr Market.  It pees me off because I've got better things to do but that's the game I'm given.  But because Mr Market's on a bit of a roar, I'm also adding a FUBAR stop limit for the lot.  I listen to the podcasts and I don't give a feck but they do open my mind to the possibility this could run harder.  That's all they can do, even the very best ones (yes, we know who).

I don't get 4800p or any other price.  I don't give a feck.  I buy on the basis of the chart and because I've got a busy life outside of all this stuff, that means the monthly chart.  You talk prices but you don't say why.  Why 4800p?  I'm not dissing you, I trust you've got a reason (I could see some) and that's what I want to know.  That's the value to me.  I say don't throw out numbers without an explanation.

I look at the chart and it'll tell me when to do something.  So here's that "meme" again (do y'all get it now!)...

   

What I see is this:

Yep, that's the sort of thing it takes just for the techs.  Sure, choose your data of choice but at least have something.  So we were on a bounce but it's given way (which is unusual on the monthly so spider senses about the overall market at the ready).  That's further supported by the weekly action, which usually doesn't agree (hmm).  So I'll sit it out until the turn and the price at which it does will be the least interesting thing about it.  Sure, it may go up 10% tomorrow.  I simply don't give a feck 'cause that's just noise in my scheme of things.

As for the rest, let's not fool ourselves.  Everything is a trade.  Only the duration varies. 

Again, I'm not dissing you.  I wouldn't fecking read your stuff if it was BS!  I want to know more.  To challenge myself and me ways.  That's how I might manage to stay ahead.  TBH, more an excuse to show my frillies to hopefully get some to appreciate what's required if you want to ride.

Some naive will probably ask what techs I'm using.  Don't.  No shortcuts.  That's a suit you'll have to invest in to tailor and wear.  Again, if you ain't prepared to grunt, stay the feck away.  I could name them.  Worthless, as it's how they're used.  How are they used?  Worthless as we all come at this from a different angle.  So what are you left with in the end?  A pub chat, no more.

........But then, every now and then, someone says something as an aside and it lands hard and you go "oh feckidity feck"!

I ''threw out a figure'' to perhaps try explain a laddering approach....but I did give one so its a fair challenge.

Charts are a science but my methodology for a precise price isn't. Your price, someone else's price and my price may well be completely different because our current objectives and current holdings are different. 

Currently have almost no exposure of my total assets in direct stocks....so my appetite is different. My objectives are therefore individual. My price is individual. I need to caveat though my current asset holding are not the norm...so whilst I do have some stocks, just they don't represent any type of real exposure in terms of %.

The balance is that my prices (for me) are tempered with a massive worry we are walking on the edge of a cliff at the moment, its raining and visibility is low...and a storm is coming. However, the contra is with almost no exposure at all I want to dip my toe in and keep ahead of cash and at my current levels I have a FOMO. 

What I do know is when Rio hit 6091 a couple of weeks ago I had a deep desire to have bought them already at a lower price. Its profits, its dividends and what it does to make money worldwide were something I wanted to be a part of....and 2 weeks ago it felt like I was going to have to pay a 'relative' premium to do so. My concern was I would be always chasing that price, if Iron Ore demands increases again then my opportunity to buy anywhere near 4000 or 5000 felt like it had gone forever (felt to me anyway)....so its FOMO. Not FOMO on a profit but rather FOMO on owning a piece of a business I really liked at a price I liked. 

So when it dropped quickly and I went in at 5181 for my first ladder and happy if that's my only one because at least I am in. However as the price falls further I set further ladders down 4805 is the next because for me that 11% yield, a worldwide exposure and a commodity based cycles is something I do not current have. So I am not necessarily bullish or bearish on that price but seeking to gain exposure at a level that I am happy with....and a level that even if it falls to 2000 I would still be happy with for a lifetime year hold. Why would I be happy if it fell to 2000 if I bought at these levels....I guess because at least I paid 5181 and not 6000. That's human, its wrong I am sure. 

Rio (and about 20 other picks, of which I will try collect 3/4/5 if they fall out of favour) I see as businesses that I would like to own to diversify my total assets. 

If I buy Rio they wont be shares on a screen but more like holding a currency type, a tangible asset, a share of a business and taking the rough with the smooth. That's the long term.....the short term is volatility and opportunity to grab 3/4/5 bargains from those 20 businesses I am tracking and try to get what I feel to be a 10/20% discount on what I might have paid....not really for short term profit but to protect against an impending dip. 

My price is for me, its not a market call and its all to do with my circumstances and what else I hold....or in reality what else I do not hold. If I already held Rio and other miners (I don't) my price would be very different.

Now its the macros that I do like.....trying to understand the tides, the flow, the patterns is really helpful. That helps me with understanding cycles and fundamentals, but at the same time I want a fairly passive hold. However then picking the price on one share (eg Rio) it relies on the CEO not being convicted of some terrible crime, some long term Ratner type faux pau or some daft over payment for a take over of another rancid business etc....

My price decision is based on where I have seen the share price in the past and where I see it going. I guess its charting but without any reliance on maths. The market is too fickle and too imprecise for me to feel I can rely on it....

I should clarify this was my price in this market. Next year my price could be quite different. 

Next time I ''throw out a figure''...I will caveat that my figure, not for others consumption and based on my own individual position. 

[spygirl]

31 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

We should all print that off and stick it on the fridge to remind us of where we are and where we're going.

 

It dovetails perfectly with that gromen interview, which is absolutely devastating: they either believe their own rhetoric, in which case they're going to blow everything to smithereens, or they're lying and inflation is going to infinity and beyond.

 

Almost every "expert" thinks they can just copy the Volcker playbook, but as gromen points out, the circumstances aren't even remotely comparable. It simply is not going to happen.

 

To kibuc and anyone feeling similarly despondent I'd say this: if this thread means anything it serves to remind us that we're moving back from the dreamlike "virtual economy" as Peter Thiel calls it, back to the economy of matter. Of real "stuff".

 

Nobody is going to give a fuck about pieces of paper, fit only for wiping your arse with, that's over. If you hold shares in miners, fertiliser, uranium etc etc then you're ahead of 99.99% of the population for the decades ahead.

 

if I can paraphrase DB, we're here for the destination, not the journey.

Again, its China.

Always has been since the late 90s.

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

22 minutes ago, Don Coglione said:

@Harley won't like that!

😂

 

As ever, it's each to his own.

 

My point is that it's really not worth sinking into a depression. There's nothing wrong with buy and hold, just check in every now and then and make sure nothings gone insane, in which case you may want to top slice.

 

But fixating on where you're at day by day is just a recipe for misery in my opinion.

[belfastchild]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I have my eye on those too. I’m waiting for this winter to pass yet, it should be a bloodbath for German stocks when 30%+ ppi and no gas floods out to the consumer end.

Thats my view too. I sold out of Siemens earlier on this year, had doubled my money on them. My view of them as a company hasnt changed (some uni friends still work for them), but I think this next year could be brutal for German engineering/manufacturing. Not everything they do is reliant on that and they have spin offs (I still hold the free siemens energy shares). Im 2-3 years away from maybe taking my sipp so being overly cautious with sipp stocks (half cash now, out of everything in my sipp thats eu or us/cad based).

I dont think I have the lifespan left to hold on for 10+ years ;-) so please dont take this as advice! My nephews and nieces can fight over who owns the poly shares ;-)

[DurhamBorn]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

We're going to need more than just a price chart but I take the point as it's something I noticed.  Amazing what hand time deals you.  I've been in and out of BASF but never had an 8%+ yield as currently.  The monthly is oversold but has yet to turn which may take a while as the weekly is currently heading there.  Japan seems to be a step ahead despite the "macro" noise.  The one macro that I do entertain though is the impact of energy/raw material supplies on these companies.  I was surprised that my Polish metals producer was still on the up given their energy usage.  But I was happy to follow the chart and take the gains!

I consider it one of a few companies you could hold core forever,but of course top slice in any bubble run.Iv been watching them for ages.Inflation depends if you can pass on while depreciating debt.Look at DS Smith passed all inflation and a bit more.I hate the withholding taxes in Germany 26.35% so we are looking at a 6% yield.I dont like German once a year divis,but it is what it is.BASF is one of those where its crucial to get the timing right because dividend growth will be tiny if anything.

Lots of areas are interesting again,not for multi baggers,but for long slow reliable divis etc,the place im at now.I have little interest in growing wealth from here,im too close to lifetime allowances and tax allowances.The wealth growing work was donek,0.5% above inflation pa would be job done from here,at least for a decade.

I still think the telcos,insurers,wealth managers are areas were we might get doubles including divis from here still.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Beyond smashing you over the head with a bar of the stuff then they really couldn't make it any clearer.

[Errol]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 hours ago, Loki said:

Am I still allowed to post if I don't ride a Hardly Movingson? 

(I quite often leave the road completely with no idea where I am or how I got there, and like to have a laugh about falling off)

Is that a tenere? I'm wanting to get into off-road myself.

 

Bought a Triumph scrambler 1200 xe but was just too nice to take off the tarmac so flogged it last week.

[Loki]

27 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Is that a tenere? I'm wanting to get into off-road myself.

 

Bought a Triumph scrambler 1200 xe but was just too nice to take off the tarmac so flogged it last week.

it's  an old Honda XRV but with a few mods.  Get out there before the eco loons and ramblers close all the trails 

[JMD]

3 hours ago, tank said:

If health care related litigation in the US is anything to go by, the answer is a firm yes. 

Well I do get your point, but mine would be that we don't need to copy the US bloated capitalist model, it's breaking down in any event. The legal profession is a hyper example of a rentier inefficient middle man economy, finance being top of the tree in this respect of course. Instead I'd favour a very mixed economy, but unfortunately in the short term we won't get this. But for e sample i think the French/German health models look pretty decent, harnessing the state, private sector, non profit organisations, charities, trusts, etc.

[JMD]

21 hours ago, Harley said:

But I do give a shit about you

OK, come to Jesus time.  I've been at this longer than an easy 90% of you.  I'm old and wise enough to know I don't know and will never know.  But I'm futher down that road than most.  So here's my bit.  A lot of this forum is spent talking about what's going to happen, either macro or talking about specific sectors or stocks.  Like you know.  You don't.  Say what you like, I just fecking know you don't.  Or the forum time is spent just regurgitating macro tweets, etc leaving me asking "so what the feck"?   That's lazy investing and it's going to cost you.  The effort required to play this game is high so if you don't want to put it in or can't, don't do it.  And don't cruise around yapping instead, fecking up others.  That's one reason I've dropped out a bit given all this pointless BS yapping.  You can be as professional or as clever as you like, but losers lose money.  Sorry, a shite thing to say but that's the game and money is the score.  Sounding clever, etc is not.   No specific criticism as it's exactly what all the talking heads do and I don't care for them either.  But they get paid to do that and you don't.  They're playing a different game. 

OK, this is a macro (not specifically investing) thread, but that's so not all you're gonna need to invest.  You need fundamentals, technicals and macro skills.  Er, you're buying and selling specific stocks or whatever not "the macro".  It's not rocket science.  Merely cruising this macro forum is going to cost.  This forum is like going down the pub after a good days work.  It's not in itself a good day's work.  If you want to invest for yourself, you need to do the grunt work first and then forever more.  That's having an allocation model, clear objectives, a systematic approach, risk management, etc first.  Many of you don't, judging by the reaction to many of my earlier posts along these lines.  Even the simple but profound recent ones.  Someone's telling you something and you're not listening.  Get all this plumbing sorted before you go near the taps.  Losing 83% or 60% or whatever of profits is fecking insane.  Don't say you've done nothing wrong.  You've fecked up big time.  Most survivors do.  Man up, let it make you feel sick, and channel it to make sure it hopefully never happens again.  I at least have been there before, actually looked into that mirror, and thankfully climbed out the other side.  Sounds like some stepped into the ring and weren't ready and got well beat.  So first, honestly ask yourself whether you're a committed fighter and prepared to endlessly train like one.

Me, my NAV is almost back to where I was at the start of the year.  I'm not happy with my performance, but I never am.  I'm good a picking bottoms on the average but, because I'm never happy, I've honestly looked yet again and I'm seeing I'm fecking up the sells.  So I've fixed that.  That's what you do, one painful step at a time.  Quietly, without all the lazy yap.

Fuck, you do get what I mean by riding don't you?

Many crucial investment/trading/finance subjects and strategies you mention there Harley (particularly the first few lines of 2nd para). Just to say I am very grateful you have taken the time and effort to - regularly - remind the thread about them. Personally i feel I have now got most of the key subjects areas kinda 80% covered, except the technical(analysis?) bit. I am still deciding how to accomplish that, but as I am creating a long-term hold portfolio, I am 'only' seeking a sector/intra sector arb/rotation/rebalance strategy.                                                                                                                                  ...so anyway if anyone is using alternatives to TA charts, for buy/sell decisions, i'd really ike to hear what you do. For example I believe @DurhamBorne doesn't use TA which is interesting because he seems to get his personal calls right.

[Ash4781b]

Totally anecdotal but Extremely quiet today in my local furniture store and also b and q very quiet. More staff that customers. I thought I would check out the dfs share price history. Yep It’s not looking great is it tbh. That div yield is a worry (more falls incoming?) though price not near the pandemic lows. I don’t know what furniture margins or debt (edited) are like though. I assume high transport costs once it gets to road off a ship container. Could be brutal but might read up their accounts later.

[Errol]

1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

might read up their accounts later.

Yes, that will be something really exciting for the weekend,

[Ash4781b]

4 minutes ago, Errol said:

Yes, that will be something really exciting for the weekend,

Just interested to see their margins and how much debt they have. If we are at the start of a recession. It might be too late get crushed between collapsing demand and rising costs.