Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

The speed sanctions were introduced (30 seconds after the first tank rolled in) suggested to me the West were desperate to create a lasting West/East split. Allows removal of manufacturing from the East to back West…

Remember the huge stockpiles of imported steel at the rolling mills in South Wales that were reported as very unusual last year by one of our truck driver posters. Acres of billets stacked in a freshly made over area of the steel works.

I was surprised to find out that a huge amount of the stainless steel my place uses originally comes from Ukraine but is finished/rolled in the west.

Perhaps a good deal of stocking up has been going on by the insiders.

[Errol]

 

[DurhamBorn]

Two things to now consider as certain now is BTL is mostly finished and will burn large percentages of those involved who dont get out.Bag holders.Some will get out with big profits,some with small profits,but anyone using leverage,even say 50% is going to be running at a loss at some point.

The second thing is the West splitting from the Emerging Markets.We predicted both on here,but now we can start to cross market those affects.

One of the reasons i like the wealth managers is the death of BTL.Lots of capital will go their way,once market falls are over.The population at large doesnt understand pensions,share ISAs etc,but that will now grow as BTL fades away to big institutions and the few pro landlords (even many of them will cash in)

The splitting provides us with huge chances to grow capital.First we need to understand why its happening,and thats so western governments can default on their debts through inflation.The savings of China,decades of working hard in factories stolen by western governments.The thing here is though is that will be a one time event.They wont be bitten again.So where will their savings go?

I think gold and Asian stocks markets will see much more demand and Russia will fill their energy needs.Eastern companies have just gained a huge advantage so their shares are likely too cheap.

The west we need to work more on.The first take is consumption will fall,but not all,some will increase.There is a chance this isnt an 8 year reflation,but a 4/5 year reflation followed by a 25 year steady inflation (3%-4%).I think that is now more likely,i cant macro that yet,but im seeing signals.

Easy first step for anyone not already is ladder into Henderson Asian Income and Blackrock Latin America.I hold them both.Im going to try to find a way to play Turkey outside of just Turkcell.In history Turkey (the area) has been a huge winner as the bridge between different blocks,likely it will be again.

Il make a contrarian call based on this roadmap scenario.Turkey is the best investment in the world right now with multi bag potential.

How do we play it?

 

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Il make a contrarian call based on this roadmap scenario.Turkey is the best investment in the world right now with multi bag potential.

Turkey is an interesting call. I remember a youtuber mentioning that, when renovating a flat there, you could buy every single product and material made in Turkey. That actually really impressed me, literally so long as they have energy and mineral imports they are entirely self-sufficient. The sanctions actually seem to have made Turkey incredibly resilient, I suspect Russia will be the same.

[M S E Refugee]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Two things to now consider as certain now is BTL is mostly finished and will burn large percentages of those involved who dont get out.Bag holders.Some will get out with big profits,some with small profits,but anyone using leverage,even say 50% is going to be running at a loss at some point.

The second thing is the West splitting from the Emerging Markets.We predicted both on here,but now we can start to cross market those affects.

One of the reasons i like the wealth managers is the death of BTL.Lots of capital will go their way,once market falls are over.The population at large doesnt understand pensions,share ISAs etc,but that will now grow as BTL fades away to big institutions and the few pro landlords (even many of them will cash in)

The splitting provides us with huge chances to grow capital.First we need to understand why its happening,and thats so western governments can default on their debts through inflation.The savings of China,decades of working hard in factories stolen by western governments.The thing here is though is that will be a one time event.They wont be bitten again.So where will their savings go?

I think gold and Asian stocks markets will see much more demand and Russia will fill their energy needs.Eastern companies have just gained a huge advantage so their shares are likely too cheap.

The west we need to work more on.The first take is consumption will fall,but not all,some will increase.There is a chance this isnt an 8 year reflation,but a 4/5 year reflation followed by a 25 year steady inflation (3%-4%).I think that is now more likely,i cant macro that yet,but im seeing signals.

Easy first step for anyone not already is ladder into Henderson Asian Income and Blackrock Latin America.I hold them both.Im going to try to find a way to play Turkey outside of just Turkcell.In history Turkey (the area) has been a huge winner as the bridge between different blocks,likely it will be again.

Il make a contrarian call based on this roadmap scenario.Turkey is the best investment in the world right now with multi bag potential.

How do we play it?

 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-ii-plc-msci-turkey

[Joncrete Cungle]

I own some Turkcell, however if Erdoğan pivots more towards Russia, or does something that irritates USA. Could Turkish assets be sanctioned by Biden / EU / UK in the future?

[Lightly Toasted]

2 hours ago, Foor said:

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Four-G7-powers-impose-ban-on-Russian-gold-exports

Is it me or are all these sanctions aimed more at or to do with the bankcrupt West trying to maintain confidence in there toilet roll currencys? 

Four G7 powers will ban Russian gold exports in a new bid to stop oligarchs from buying the precious metal to avoid the impact of sanctions against Moscow, Britain said Sunday.

The joint action taken by Britain, Canada, Japan and the United States, “will directly hit Russian oligarchs and strike at the heart of (President Vladimir) Putin’s war machine,” said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Given London's central role in the international gold trade and parallel US, Japanese and Canadian action, “this measure will have global reach, shutting the commodity out of formal international markets,” Britain said.

...

The London Bullion Market had already suspended six Russian refineries in action announced on March 7.

 

A global trading exchange is a form of capital, and driving users away from that exchange is a drawing-down of that capital. It's comparable to the USD's reserve status being exploited to purloin Russian currency reserves.

Weaponizing these "soft power" advantages simply means that the soft power will be driven elsewhere, to our very great detriment.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I own some Turkcell, however if Erdoğan pivots more towards Russia, or does something that irritates USA. Could Turkish assets be sanctioned by Biden / EU / UK in the future?

Consequences to that. Incirlik air base, access to the Black Sea, large Turkish population in Europe, even more imports to replace. Then there is the possibility of Turkey becoming even more expansionist.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

21 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Shipping furniture means a lot of empty air in the container, putting it together in England means a lot of extra wages and there's no cunt with any money to buy it anyway. They're fucked. 

Justin Urqhart Stewart, is that you??

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Joncrete Cungle said:

I own some Turkcell, however if Erdoğan pivots more towards Russia, or does something that irritates USA. Could Turkish assets be sanctioned by Biden / EU / UK in the future?

Yes,but doubtful they would sanction a crucial NATO member.They are the bridge between the blocks forming here.I havent done much lately because the cycle was underway and i was happy with things.However as always the cycle is throwing up developments not seen at first.While everyone argues over if inflation falls back ,if growth stocks re-bound etc they are missing the huge signals.

Erdogan will know he can leverage this,he is shrewd,he will charm and play rough with both blocks at the same time i expect.Markets just shrug their shoulders and see Turkey as a basket case with hyper-inflation.

Im upping my allocation to Turkcell,but im going to start buying the Ishares above,its not currency hedged,thats what i want,i dont want any currency hedging as if im right the currency will strengthen over time.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Consequences to that. Incirlik air base, access to the Black Sea, large Turkish population in Europe, even more imports to replace. Then there is the possibility of Turkey becoming even more expansionist.

Exactly,much more likely everyone plays nice with them and shows much more respect.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

53 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/ishares-ii-plc-msci-turkey

Is that a different version to this:

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239689/ishares-msci-turkey-etf ?

A lot more holdings in the link I've added. Looks like it might be US only TUR rather than ITKY. Shafted again by the EU regulations.

[Frog]

Could the contrarian view be that BTL will do very well over the next decade?

If we think about some of the current headwinds:

l Rising IRs

l Increasing tenant rights

l Increasing regulation

l Target for increasing taxes

l Rising cost of tradesmen

l Rising cost of materials

On the face of it, all of these things are very bad for LLs and this is what the media and many are focusing on.

However there are plenty of possible tailwinds:

l    Increasing rents

l Negative real rates

l Capital values increasing (inflation hedge)

l Population growth (more than a million foreign nationals let in last year)

l Falling rental supply as amateur LL exit

l Lack of new LL entering the market

l Insufficient new build

l Institutional LLs only make up a tiny percentage of overall stock

So maybe BTL can work very well for someone who is not overleveraged, owns modern property and is handy?

I’m beginning to think BTL could thrive in the same way the tobacco companies did.  Everyone thought regulation and taxation would kill them and sold out, when in reality they became great investments.

 

[feed]

I've been looking at  ITKY for some broad turkey exposure. 

https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B1FZS574#overview

Hadn't made a decision one way or the other as it feels a bit early.   

[Axeman123]

29 minutes ago, Frog said:

Could the contrarian view be that BTL will do very well over the next decade?

IMO housing provision could do well long-term, but that doesn't mean any of the current BTLers or dodgy HMO converted properties will be involved. An analogy would be all of the .com boom companies that dissapeared without a trace, even when big picture e-commerce was going to be massive. Purpose built blocks owned by insurance companies etc will have economies of scale that Fergus Wilson et al can only dream of.

[M S E Refugee]

44 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is that a different version to this:

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239689/ishares-msci-turkey-etf ?

A lot more holdings in the link I've added. Looks like it might be US only TUR rather than ITKY. Shafted again by the EU regulations.

There's this one as well.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hsbc-etfs-plc-msci-turkey

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,but doubtful they would sanction a crucial NATO member.They are the bridge between the blocks forming here.I havent done much lately because the cycle was underway and i was happy with things.However as always the cycle is throwing up developments not seen at first.While everyone argues over if inflation falls back ,if growth stocks re-bound etc they are missing the huge signals.

Erdogan will know he can leverage this,he is shrewd,he will charm and play rough with both blocks at the same time i expect.Markets just shrug their shoulders and see Turkey as a basket case with hyper-inflation.

Im upping my allocation to Turkcell,but im going to start buying the Ishares above,its not currency hedged,thats what i want,i dont want any currency hedging as if im right the currency will strengthen over time.

Theres this one as well that has turkcell in it, no idea how old the list is though;

https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B1FZS574#exposure

edit sorry; think its same one.

edit2 ah yes same ISIN.

[leonardratso]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's this one as well.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hsbc-etfs-plc-msci-turkey

looks almost the same, price is way different, must be the way they slice it up i suppose;

[leonardratso]

obviously a buy just because of KOC Holdings - no woke turkish shit here, seems to be mostly non renewable energy as well, totally unwoke.

[desertorchid]

11 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Theres this one as well that has turkcell in it, no idea how old the list is though;

https://www.justetf.com/uk/etf-profile.html?isin=IE00B1FZS574#exposure

edit sorry; think its same one.

edit2 ah yes same ISIN.

Unless i am missing something the turkish stock market is up 250% in the last year ( primarily the affect of inflation) but this fund has managed to lose  10%. Doesnt instill enormous confidence. Surely you are merely punting on future value of the lira when buying into this stock

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

obviously a buy just because of KOC Holdings - no woke turkish shit here, seems to be mostly non renewable energy as well, totally unwoke.

That's why I invested heavily in ishares Eastern Europe, it's delisted tomorrow . 

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

That's why I invested heavily in ishares Eastern Europe, it's delisted tomorrow . 

Those lesbians showed you.

[Foor]

It seems Boris Johnson’s become untouchable, as if he has some god like skills which shield him from anything.
It also seems he is very much a central integral figure with regards to first the Covid saga; and now this phoney war. He is at war with the Britsh electorate showing no respect at all to any misgivings.
In all my years I have never seen anything like the current shenanigans. Trump I thought, wow, but that old dog in the US now, and the way the PM acts. It’s like nothing I ever imagined in a democratic society.
I honestly think he was installed, a paid shill, and promised whatever, just do what we tell you to do and you will be looked after. He does not give a flying fuck to be fair, it's quite funny...
His interest in Ukraine is beyond just odd, especially considering the problems we have back here at home, does he really believe the British electorate give a flying fuck about some Ukranians when there struggling to make ends meet and put food on their tables, here in the UK. 
 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

30 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

There's this one as well.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hsbc-etfs-plc-msci-turkey

Yes, similarly narrow range of investments. The US TUR iShares fund is much broader. For clarity this is the HSBC fund below.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Is that a different version to this:

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239689/ishares-msci-turkey-etf ?

A lot more holdings in the link I've added. Looks like it might be US only TUR rather than ITKY. Shafted again by the EU regulations.

I have made good money on TUR before but cant get it now,Wtf havent we done away with those rules?.It seems they have done nothing at all since Brexit on any EU crap.