Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I had been thinking and fearing the same for months (but last few days been digging around). The practicalities and challenges of changing power infrastructure are great - but (as ever!) there is more going on here... For example looks like Germany's own pivot back to coal started some time ago...

In this months gas industry magazine, they have run an article about how the regulator needs to implement hybrid systems to cope with demand. This basically means installing air source heat pumps in line with a gas boiler, back tracking to say the least.

[Chewing Grass]

20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I wonder when this particular penny drop moment is going to hit the mainstream.

Good job nobody common (95% of folk) will be able afford one by 2030 innit then.

[Animal Spirits]

27 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I wonder when this particular penny drop moment is going to hit the mainstream.

Simon Michaux was a guest on Nate Hagens podcast back in May:

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/episode/19-simon-michaux

00:45 - Simon Michaux info + works

01:10 - Energy Blind

02:58 - Mintech

03:11 - Geometallurgy

08:10 - Fossil energies are finite

08:15 - Mineral resources are finite

09:30 - Volcanic reproduction of minerals

10:25 - The fourth industrial revolution

14:20 - Coking coal

15:08 - Low carbon steel

15:59 - Scalability

17:11 - It takes decades to build a grid of new plants

19:40 - 19 terawatt powered society

20:44 - In general we’re adding 1-2 nuclear power plants per year

22:19 - Nuclear cannot scale up fast enough to replace fossil fuels

22:51 - Base metals are recycled at 30-60% and technology metals don’t get recycled at all

24:09 - Circular economy

25:20 - Resource balanced economy

26:42 - Quantitative easing

29:26 - Availability of uranium and thorium

30:50 - Energy properties

32:22 - Cobb Douglas Function

32:50 - Generation IV nuclear power

35:15 - 2018 Peak Oil

38:10 - Extracting copper will become more difficult

40:28 - Renewables: Right answer to the wrong question

32:35 - Minerals in a wind turbine (2-ton neodymium magnet)

43:28 - ⅓ of current system will be electrified according to the European commission

43:43 - There’s not enough time or materials to mine and replace lithium to meet goals by 2030

46:07 - Brandenburg, Germany 100% renewable by 2030

52:03 - Manufacturing and raw material production in Russia and China

52:38 - Natural gas in Europe comes from Russia

53:50 - Liquifying and unliquifying gas loses 30% of energy properties

58:04 - Peak coal 2013 and peak gas 2019

1:03:10 - Paul Ehrlich info + TGS Episode

1:03:20 - Industrial fertilizer

1:03:40 - We’ve lost 40% of arable land since 1960

1:05:45 - Cuban response to oil embargo

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Leftists and their clients keep using that phrase, it's part of the bot programming from which entitlement flows. It's deep-rooted, almost part of the national identity.

Unacknowledged problems cannot be solved. If you're already among the richest in your peer group, why should you have to work/invest to improve your situation further?

It’s a phrase I hate. It’s correct if you believe the GDP figures aren’t bollocks; and ignores that there’s 65 million + people living in the U.K. On a per capita basis it’s really not impressive, and probably much worse once you strip out a lot of the nonsensical items from the GDP figures and were to have an accurate population figure.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I had been thinking and fearing the same for months (but last few days been digging around). The practicalities and challenges of changing power infrastructure are great - but (as ever!) there is more going on here... For example looks like Germany's own pivot back to coal started some time ago...

If the below article is accurate (contains chart from federal statistical office of Germany), it shows clearly not only how unachievable the emission reduction targets always were for industrialised nations (we all guessed as much I know, but here is some factual evidence), but also how hypocritical countries like Germany really are. I mean if UK electricity generation was still coming from 30% coal and this figure was increasing, the media would tear the government to shreds - yet all we heard was how great Europe (exception Poland) was!                            

Thing is German reliance on coal to generate its electricity looked like was increasing even before the Ukraine war had even begun!   

                https://www.dw.com/en/coal-and-fossil-fuel-share-of-german-electricity-rises-in-3q/a-60114010

After Fukushima Germany fast tracked the closure of their nuclear power plants and replaced most with new coal fired power plants.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

'Mama Mia!!' That's awful.

  ...but on tangent and being somewhat irrelevant perhaps, but can I ask why on the bill he holds up, has the euro figure total got a dot where a comma should be, and a comma where a dot should be?  The 'European way' I guess, and bet was only a matter of time before such crazyness was forced upon us over here. I think every passing day shows how close to the wire our Great Brexit Escape was!! 

That’s how they do it on the Continent. It’s very confusing.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

The NHS is the 8th biggest employer in the World with 1.7 million employees.

Fucking mind-boggling!

Of which I read (oh dear!)  about half are clinical.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

It is crazy. They employ three times as many people as all the other government departments put together. There is an NHS worker for every 30 people of working age and one for every 60 people in the general population. It is almost guaranteed there is one on your street yet you will struggle to get into a GP surgery or a hospital. What are they all doing? 

Arm the NHS and they would be one of the world largest military forces.

To be precise, second only to China.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thanks, Just sat and watch that with a coffee the royalties companies are very interesting 

also this part about the miners 

Trouble is, is it not, royalty companies are often LPs (limited partnerships) in the US with tax implications for us Brits, are there not? 

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

That and this will ensure systemic collapse after private assets are all stolen.Inflation is moving all private sector wealth to government and those on its tit,only question from the macro is will it change or go to conclusion.

https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/DP103_Great-British-Rake-Off_web.pdf

In the NHS Pension Scheme in 2020-21, contributions from employees were 9.8% of salary (this is a figure recognisable by millions of employees from their payslips); contributions from the employer were 20.6% of salary, so the total contributions in 2020-21 were 9.8% + 20.6% = 30.4% of salary. But the current service cost for 2020-21 was 62.2%! This means that on average every NHS employee is getting 62.2% of salary worth of pension (i.e. a fabulously generous pension) at a cost of only 30.4%, of which he or she only pays 9.8% out of his/her salary. It also means that the taxpayer (to be more exact, future taxpayers) have no idea that the pensions 13 £17 billion = [(62.2%-30.4%) x £53.3 billion]. £53.3 billion is the NHS Payroll based on Table G. 20 promised by the Treasury have only been half accounted for, and indeed both the accounted-for half and the unaccounted-for half will have to be paid by them – future taxpayers

Not sure about the % payout but as for the rest, seems similar in higher education, and probably many other public sectors.

[Plan-b]

5 hours ago, Virgil Caine said:

British energy companies massively over invested in gas as an electrical generation source as it was the cheapest option. The government should have spotted the risk and mandated a much more diverse mix using planning laws if necessary. Now the taxpayer is probably going to end up subsidising the building of nuclear and even coal plants to redress the imbalance. Anyway Truss is right that handouts are not going to fix the problem. The best solution is to use what money is available to address the supply side issue. In the interim the best way to keep costs down and to put downward pressure on prices is to ration use which to me means mandating  rolling 3 hour power cuts a couple of times a day as in the 1970s. The problem is no politicians now have the guts to take that sort of decision. As for water it is a natural monopoly and should never have been privatised.

Every sentence perfectly correct. Are you political? how about running for office locally for a start? I would vote for you so would many others.

 

[Lightscribe]

Things are going to get interesting for PMs.

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Lightly Toasted said:

Leftists and their clients keep using that phrase, it's part of the bot programming from which entitlement flows. It's deep-rooted, almost part of the national identity.

Unacknowledged problems cannot be solved. If you're already among the richest in your peer group, why should you have to work/invest to improve your situation further?

Yes the so called 'rich West'. Moreover, the left would have you believe most of our wealth was stolen during colonial times from Africa, etc. Which is a strange theory given that most people in the West were poor, many living in real poverty, right up until 1940/50s. The frightening reality is that we have borrowed our so called 'wealth' from the future, and are in effect living on credit, with most of this debt burden leveraged on fragile asset bubbles or hidden in even more highly fragile and financialised derivative markets.     

But how do you define a wealthy country? Basic GDP for sure doesn't describe much that is useful these days... I suppose, as per this thread, it starts with productive resources. Then the process of extracting wealth from those resources, and ultimately how the wealth is reinvested or shared/spent among the citizens. The 'economic system' invented in order to manage all this must be sustainable over time. Unfortunately it does seem that only small countries, rather like Iceland or Finland at maximum, can operate an equitable economy, and larger diverse populations just tend toward centralisation, whether that be socialism or capitalism, then go bang! 

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Things are going to get interesting for PMs.

Is this a "WOW" moment?  I have no idea anymore, Basel was supposed to be one and nothing happened

[ThoughtCriminal]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62514970

 

The argies aren't fucking about. That's how you do inflation. 😂

 

[M S E Refugee]

3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62514970

 

The argies aren't fucking about. That's how you do inflation. 😂

 

https://www.bullion-rates.com/silver/ARS/Year-5-chart.htm

Keep stacking!

[Plan-b]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I wonder when this particular penny drop moment is going to hit the mainstream.

I doubt it ever will, gotta keep the bullshit hopium alive

[Bus Stop Boxer]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

After Fukushima Germany fast tracked the closure of their nuclear power plants and replaced most with new coal fired power plants.

And laughed at Donald when he pointed out the fuck ups.

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

In this months gas industry magazine, they have run an article about how the regulator needs to implement hybrid systems to cope with demand. This basically means installing air source heat pumps in line with a gas boiler, back tracking to say the least.

 

I saw this before and thought of what you said before. What’s a mini split heat pump?

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

What’s a mini split heat pump?

Its a smaller heat pump than usual (8-10amp), going into a control unit that splits between the heat pump and gas boiler depending on demand / winter etc.

Edit to add, they want to add a gas boiler to heat pumps basically.

[Lightscribe]

30 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is this a "WOW" moment?  I have no idea anymore, Basel was supposed to be one and nothing happened

I’m thinking more along the lines that China's economic problems may surface soon.

How this will effect COMEX and JP Morgan shinanigans we shall see. But a further split between paper and physical could force further physical deliveries which they don’t like.

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’m thinking more along the lines that China's economic problems may surface soon.

How this will effect COMEX and JP Morgan shinanigans we shall see. But a further split between paper and physical could force further physical deliveries which they don’t like.

 

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’m thinking more along the lines that China's economic problems may surface soon.

How this will effect COMEX and JP Morgan shinanigans we shall see. But a further split between paper and physical could force further physical deliveries which they don’t like.

Oh yeah 

 

[M S E Refugee]

Decent video, Luongo recommends Turkey as a proxy for investing in Russia.

He thinks Turkey has great potential, I wonder if he has been on here stealing @DurhamBorn's ideas.

[Plan-b]

 I recently got this in an email from nethouseprices.com 

https://mailchi.mp/nethouseprices.com/sell-your-buy-to-lets-before-the-market-drops-at-the-end-of-the-year

"there’s no denying that we’re likely heading for a huge property market crash."