Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 3)

[Axeman123]

19 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I’m thinking more along the lines that China's economic problems may surface soon.

How this will effect COMEX and JP Morgan shinanigans we shall see. But a further split between paper and physical could force further physical deliveries which they don’t like.

I thought the big issue was arbitrage, push down the paper price in COMEX and unlimited Chinese buyers will take delivery and sell it on their home exchange. No more paper games.

[Funn3r]

38 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Decent video, Luongo recommends Turkey as a proxy for investing in Russia.

He thinks Turkey has great potential, I wonder if he has been on here stealing @DurhamBorn's ideas.

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its a smaller heat pump than usual (8-10amp), going into a control unit that splits between the heat pump and gas boiler depending on demand / winter etc.

Edit to add, they want to add a gas boiler to heat pumps basically.

Do you get air conditioning as a bonus for upgrading? 

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

This raises an interesting point. Which EM telcos can you put in an ISA?

I think the Brazilian telcos are also not allowed.

[Democorruptcy]

10 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

British energy bills forecast to go through the roof https://www.rt.com/business/560718-british-energy-bills-forecast/

My old boss used spend like a drunken sailor and nobody thought that he was rich even though he had loads of material things.

I think Frances O'Grady doesn't realise we are skint like my old boss.

“No one should struggle to get by in one of the richest countries in the world,” TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady said, adding: “But up and down the country, millions of families are being pushed to the brink by eyewatering energy bills. With prices set to skyrocket even further, it’s time to say enough is enough.”

She went on to stress that “Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak need to wake up to the size of this crisis. This requires a pandemic-scale intervention.”

The Bank of England must be pleased that the TUC General Secretary is campaigning for more handouts, so the plebs can afford their mortgage payments.

Oh hang on a minute... well I'll go to the foot of our stairs..... as well as her TUC role, Frances O'Grady is a director at the Bank of England!

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/court-of-directors

[Joncrete Cungle]

12 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

I have Turkcell in my SIPP with HL.

[M S E Refugee]

12 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

There's a small allocation of Turkcell in the ishares Turkey ETF (ITKY).

[Democorruptcy]

38 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

At HL, if using Windows, when you view the initial page for a company, it details what you can hold it in, e.g Turkcell has a tick in SIPP and Share & Fund Account but a cross in ISA & Lifetime ISA (see image).

However on Android, those details are not displayed unless you click the 'Deal' tab which then says SIPP & Share & Fund Account.

(No log-in required to check those)

 

 

 

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

I saw this before and thought of what you said before. What’s a mini split heat pump?

A mini split A2A is exactly where I ended up after looking at this stuff for a few years.  Plenty of other advantages too such as dehumidifier and air purifier.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Its a smaller heat pump than usual (8-10amp), going into a control unit that splits between the heat pump and gas boiler depending on demand / winter etc.

Edit to add, they want to add a gas boiler to heat pumps basically.

Oh, I took it to be a small A2A.  That is, one compressor unit and maybe only one emitter.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

ISAs are buggers for international trading in that the permitted exchange list (and investible instruments) is restrictive and you can't carry forex balances.  I use mine only for FTSE GBP denominated stocks, funds, and ETFs and a decent SIPP for the international or non-GBP FTSE stuff.  The WHT perks of using a SIPP for markets such as the US is another reason to consider using a SIPP (although a SIPP is a completely different product, but some people have them).

[Lightly Toasted]

Daniel Hannan in good form:

https://web.archive.org/web/20220813231950/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/13/britain-crisis-arrogance-delusions-lockdown-fanatics/

Britain is in crisis because of the arrogance and delusions of the lockdown fanatics
Don’t say I didn’t warn you. This economic storm is the direct result of the belief we could shut down society without cost

... During a radio debate when we were still in lockdown, the financial commentator, Martin Lewis, got cross with me for saying that the Government was skint, and could not go on funding its various emergency programmes. How ignorant, he snorted, to suggest that a government could be skint when it could keep printing money. Now, unabashed by the consequences of its having done precisely that, he is popping up on the BBC every five minutes to warn of a “cataclysm” unless ministers spend even more in order to subsidise our energy bills...

From what Martin Lewis has been saying -- "government needs to DO something", in essence -- he still thinks we can print this away. Good luck with that, Martin! 

Decent article, anyway.

... unless we act now to restore our finances, we face a sterling crisis and a collapse which would be most painful for the people on whose behalf the opposition are demanding more subventions.

A Right-of-centre party can win, even during a downturn, provided that people think it is fixing the problem. Margaret Thatcher won her largest majority in 1983, when unemployment was above 3 million and rising, because people believed that she had a plan to tame inflation, cut taxes and stimulate growth.

Having known Liz Truss, our probable next PM, for 25 years, I have no doubt that she knows what needs to be done. She used to work in a think-tank, and has a genius for recruiting the ablest minds from that world. The question is whether, in the short time before the next election, she can convince people that a crisis on this scale requires commensurately radical solutions.

Doing so won’t be easy. It will mean offering hard truths while the other parties offer windfall taxes, price controls, nationalisations and other juju solutions that initially poll well. But not doing so will be even worse. If people stop trusting the Tories on the economy, they face an ERM-style meltdown and a generation in opposition.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

I tried to invest in Turkcell on HL, got told I couldn't have it in my ISA, which is all I've got at the moment. 

Iv got it in my SIPP and Fund and share account,more stupid rules.

[Bobthebuilder]

 

[Axeman123]

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

When you have to keep adding on units to fix the fact that the original solution caused more problems than it fixed!

Yeah, that seems sustainable.

[onlyme]

6 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

When you have to keep adding on units to fix the fact that the original solution caused more problems than it fixed!

Yeah, that seems sustainable.

Approaching it, Net zero innit.

[Axeman123]

More fun and games:

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

...larger diverse populations just tend toward centralisation, whether that be socialism or capitalism, then go bang! 

First person I've ever heard describe capitalism as centralised.

[Noallegiance]

29 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

When you have to keep adding on units to fix the fact that the original solution caused more problems than it fixed!

Yeah, that seems sustainable.

This is going to be immeasurable when it blows.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 13/08/2022 at 13:57, Bobthebuilder said:

Personally, I would have invested the £43k and used the divis to go on holiday.

I have had a couple of transporters and a caddy over the last decade or , for business use. No end of trouble with them IME, Diesel gate compensation was the only bonus really. I do hope they have got more reliable now.

(I am becoming obsessed with divis).

I want to encourage your obsession 🙂

Check out Lynn Alden's book 

https://www.lynalden.com/stockdelver-book/

Really helped me appreciate divis

[Plan-b]

40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 

Thanks Bob, I like how they quote the lowest denominator for electricity consumption (Amps instead of Watts), at an average of 9A thats around 2kW of electricity whilst the heating is running and calling for heat. A bit like running an electric kettle continuously for 5 hours a day- sounds expensive 

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

This is going to be immeasurable when it blows.

My entire roadmap said we would get this exact inflation and that governments would then be able to avoid going broke.However it seems instead they are simply going to put up pensions and bennies with inflation and ensure collapse.Its horrific the state we are in.Im leaning a lot outside sterling now because it could collapse at any point,its out of the range where you can roadmap it,its simply a 50/50 coin toss.Its very rare where i see a situation where i see something doing very well mid term,yet could collapse at any point.Sterling could do very well mid cycle,but we needs big reforms first.

Sit ordinary private sector workers down,those earning below £28k as most do,and tell them ex coppers ,ex teachers ,ex council pen pushers,bennies mother etc are going to get £3k increases in their pensions part paid for by freezing their tax allowance on their median wages.Its pure theft. and the economics of the madhouse yet we are here.

The people who caused most of our problems protected (for now),those who didnt destroyed.

[Noallegiance]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sit ordinary private sector workers down,those earning below £28k as most do,and tell them ex coppers ,ex teachers ,ex council pen pushers,bennies mother etc are going to get £3k increases in their pensions part paid for by freezing their tax allowance on their median wages.Its pure theft. and the economics of the madhouse yet we are here.

Would you mind doing the small child/labrador thing on this please as I don't fully get it.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Decent video, Luongo recommends Turkey as a proxy for investing in Russia.

He thinks Turkey has great potential, I wonder if he has been on here stealing @DurhamBorn's ideas.

On emerging markets generally, I've just been looking around and noticed an iShares EM ETF with an average 10 day vol of 200k had a 2m vol Friday.  I didn't look closer but I should do so.

[Underwhelmed]

Some of you may find this useful